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Maddog's
Journey -
Part V
To subscribe (it's free), send an email to
dicesetter@aweber.com with
"subscribe" as the subject.) Part 5: Learning the Game of Craps Can
you beat the game, if you dont know the game? Fresh
off that real butt-whipping that I received in my first stab at Dice Influencer-based
craps shooting; I began doing some real serious thinking about what I had done wrong. Even taking into account that I did not have the
dice influencing skills I thought I had, I had never done so poorly at a craps table. What was so different about that last outing? One
thing that struck me was the realization that I had not been betting how I would normally
make bets at the craps table. I started out
by chasing the 6 and 8 like a puppy that first discovers it has a tail. Then when it seemed like I couldnt get those
numbers to hit how I wanted, started tossing bets here and there, hoping that something
would go right. Instead of having a basic
betting pattern and watching for a trend which was my standard table play, I was thinking,
hey, this set is supposed to result in more 6s.
Im gonna bet the 6 and 8 and use this set. and when they
didnt show, Id think ok, this set is supposed to also show some 5s
and 9s, lets bet those instead. Yes,
I correctly knew the numbers associated with a given axial-set, but Im sure you can
all see what I had failed to catch. The sets
will produce the numbers, if I can produce the toss. Thinking
back critically at that performance I began to realize that I really didnt know what
I was doing as a DI. Oh, sure, I understood
the basics of the toss and was doing my best to execute.
But when it came to making bets, smart bets, there was a gap the size of the
Grand Canyon between my craps knowledge and what I should have known about craps before I
put my money on the felt. I had no strong
understanding of how the bets broke down by House Advantage (HA), or Expected Value (EV). Didnt understand how to correctly apply the
DI skill (that I didnt have) as leverage against the HA and to improve the EV. I dont think I even knew correct payoffs on
anything but the most basic of bets. I
realized I had skipped an important if not crucial step in becoming a DI. I had jumped straight into controlled shooting,
without knowing the game, the bets, the payoffs, etc.
I suppose I was acting like most people.
I wanted quick results and effortless success. Lets face it, most citizens are lazy. They
don't want to put in any real effort to get what they are after. They don't want to do the
hard work of studying and practicing and experimenting.
Most folks want shortcuts. Oh
sure, reading a book, using crib-notes, and taking shortcuts, where somebody else has done
the thinking for you, can often bring results, particularly if that "somebody
else" is a top player. Mimicking the
actions of a pro, like a big blue macaw in a cage, will be a big step up from the
unknowledgeable players. However,
parrots/clones are many steps down from people who try to understand the reasons for doing
the right things. Learning to really advance and improve as a DI is about coming to
understand the reasons things work the way they do and in doing experimentation to find
out how to apply that understanding into what works for them. Its not so much the actual playing (although
the playing IS the end result and is the reason for the study/work. See what Im getting at?). Its
a bit like cheating on a collage aptitude test. Reading
the answers off the smart nerd kids paper might be temporarily convenient but it
wont help you much when your back is up against it and you need to remember how to
answer the question. *** I
knew I needed to get back to the basics. I
had to study the game and understand what was up and how it all tied together with the DI
thing. So what are some good resources to
understanding the craps table? There
are several good books on the topic and I purchased a few.
Studying these was helpful and brought some insight into the nature of game
and how the probabilities applied to making craps a negative expectation game. I
tried searching the internet for more information, but most of what I found there was
lackluster and tended to be fairly superficial in content. After
working around these various avenues of information, I found that the best resource of
information was back at good ole Dicesetter.com. I went back to reading the material that is
available there. There are several sections
dedicated to articles written by past and present DI dignitaries. And of course we all know about the boat load of
ideas and advice written in the Mad Professor articles.
I made a pact with myself to read every article. Not just the ones with interesting titles or
picking one or two out here and there to read. No,
I was determined to start at the first article in the list and read on until Id read
through everything there was to read. Once
Id gotten my way through the reams of information contained in the literal
instruction manual that is Dicesetter.com,
I then started into the archives and read through everything I could find there. Man there is some interesting stuff in the old
posts. Seems like almost any subject about
craps and dice influencing you can think of has been discussed in one form or another in
the old posts. You can get a lot of insight
by going back through some of the old threads. There
are hundreds and hundreds of posts in the archives. Youre
bound to read something that sparks an idea or gives you a new perspective. Of
course, purely reading reams of material is simply not enough. I felt that it was important to try and find ways
to really absorb the information and make it part of my knowledge pool. To do this I began to really study the craps
layout. I came up with drills to memorize
various bets. I didnt go so far as to
create flash-cards, but it was fairly close to that.
What is the correct odds and payout for various levels of place bets? What are the correct dollar amounts of a 3 unit 6
place bet, a 4 unit, a 5 unit. (Easy right, just multiply by 6, but if your not used to
thinking about levels and regression points, it can be a distraction). Do the same thing for the 5&9 and 4&10
place bets. What is the payout for a $5 horn
high yo?. How about a $10 horn high midnight? What
is the vig for these bets? Etc. etc. You get the idea and have probably done much the
same yourself. Ive
always felt that knowledge is power. I guess
this was instilled in me at an early age. My
folks started talking to me about how important an education was for getting ahead in
life. Even before I was in high school, my
dad was telling me to set my sites on college, That sheepskin is the only way that
youll get ahead. Itll open the
doors so you can be better than me. Maybe
youve heard that same speech from your Pop? Well
Ive come to believe it is true. Knowledge
is power. Knowledge provides leverage over a
given situation. It is one thing to bet a
Hard 8 because you like the idea of a 10 for 1 payoff.
But it is more powerful to understand that the Expected Value (EV) of the
Hard 8 is -9.09% and the cut that the House takes from your winning (the House Advantage
or HA) of the hard 8 bet is about a dollar for every $10 bet. Or another way to look at this is that the winning
hard 8 is paid $10 for $1 bet. The true odds
are 11 for one. You really won $11, but the
house kept $1, thanks for playing. Armed
with this knowledge, youre now going to bet the hard 8 and (a) understand what
youre paying for the payoff, (b) you have a skill to toss the hard 8 which changes
the baseline EV or (c) you wish to hedge or enhance a current bet. Anyway, the point being your not just tossing a
buck on the hard 8 with your fingers crossed. Youre
tossing that buck out knowing the consequences of your action with sound reasoning behind
it, (and your fingers crossed). In
the midst of all this studying, I kept up my practice routine, to the point of putting in
more hours then the spouse cared for or the kids deserved.
I had come to understand that becoming a DI was hard work (at least for me). Success wasnt going to just happen without
some dedication on my part. Dedication
applied to practice and training, as well as dedication in study and understanding. Next
time well delve into the practice schedule, results tracking, and why the Maddog believes
that probability math and the DI are like alcohol and firearms, the two just dont
mix. Until
next time, keep
your toss straight and your rack full. Maddog |
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