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What's Wrong With This Picture?

Please remember!  These are archives!  The Dice Setter message board was shut down. What is published here are just a few of the threads documenting the early days of dice setting strategies and opinions written by the pioneers of dice influencing.

benjavid

I have been through the message board and articles, betting strategies, precision shooting, money management, discipline, etc. However, I can't get this thought out of my head. Many of the members talk about their experience on their good sessions of 30 and more rolls and when they count the bottom line dollars , they are talking of profits of 100 dollars and less. Except a elite few.

Is it me to there is something is wrong with this picture.

For the past 2 weeks I have had 4 sessions, where I came out pretty much even, where I followed regression betting, and dice setting. I had rolls of 7-25 rolls with multiple pass lines and I ended up with less money than most other people betting on my own rolls.

Are we being too conservative here?

I just don't understand why mad P, is making 400k a year, if he has an average of 19 out of 20 winning sessions. Doesn't it make sence to bet according to your ability. If you are doing well, bet high and once it starts to go the opposite way, stop or go on the dark side, etc.

Just a thought?

Mad Professor

Hello Benjavid,

You have made a good observation and asked a good question.

I can't answer for everyone else, but I'll give you my reply.

The reason for having 19-out-of-20 winnining sessions is BECAUSE I bet conservatively.  If you've read my "Mama Said There Would Be Days Like This-Part II" you know that there is risk everytime that you pick up the dice.

If you start out betting high, and then change your bets only when it starts to go bad...you are changing your outlook on the game.  Instead of being concerned about how much money I have at risk on the table, I would rather concentrate on my shooting.

I would rather rack up a small profit, and then build on my shooting success from there.  If you have a lot of money on the table to begin with, and you don't initially regress your Place bets; then your shooting actually has to be even better, so that you can cover the cost of those bets.  Only after they are paid for, can you start collecting profit.

As to your second question about other people at the table making more off of your rolls that you do...well...that's just the nature of the game.  

There are numerous times per day when other players make MUCH more money off of my rolls than I do.  That great for them!  However, I pocket my profit while they usually play all of theirs back.

If you have a profit of $250 in your rail, and you always lose it all back, you might as well go and play the slot machines.  A typical slot player will hit a $250 payout, and then proceed to piss it all back into the machine.  Most craps players look down on slot-players, yet most veteran craps players have the same lack of discipline.  Go figure!

The reason most Precision-Shooters DON'T make more money is because:
(a)  They bet way too much and way too frequently on random-rollers and unqualified dicesetters.
(b)  They pre-load their bets on their own rolls too early, and they press their bets too aggressively.
(c)  They make too many Prop bets that are not consistent enough money makers.
(d)  They don't lock-up an early profit.
(e)  They play back too much profit that they did have in their rack.
(f)  They play too long and without a proper attitude.

The reason that there are not more Precision-Shooters out there making outstanding amounts of money is not because it can't be done.  It is because the amount of dedication, commitment, determination, maturity, and discipline is just too much effort for most people to make.

Rhythm Dice Setter

What you state can happen. It is a function of money management.  I myself don't bet big on random shooters and never bet on the pass line except when i'm shooting.  BUT when I shoot and find that I'm throwing my signature numbers for the set that I'm using then after I pay myself and get my money back from what I have on the pass line or place bets THEN on the next hit or hits, I take some money and press some money. This way you will make money when you have rolls like you have of 7 to 25 rolls.
It is the confidence level that you have on the shooter that let you deviate from the hit and regress scenario.

Hit and regress scenario will keep you from losing too much but you have to take advantage of your own rolls when you are throwing good. Then another variation of money management should be used.

It comes with experience and you are learning fast from questioning the scenario in
your post.

May you keep rolling good and reap the benefits.

dropdeadfred

Personally, I'd prefer not to maximize profits on medium length hands in lieu of not taking a beating on short hands.  My last trip out, I had 3 hands in the 6 to 12 throw range that I squeezed a small amount of profit out of.  I then had a pretty decent roll of about 20 throws, which I made about $200.  Had I started with larger bets, I would have made at least double that, but of course had I started with larger bets on the previous 3 hands as well, I'd either have already hit my loss limit, or been working from a deficit instead of working from a position of having a small profit....

I'll take consistent profit over volatile big wins and big losses any day.

Irishsetter

benjavid,

The other issue to consider is the "profile" issue.  Let's say you have a table full of random rollers, and for those shooters you are playing minimally if at all.  Then, you get the dice and suddenly you drop $132 inside.  These are the sorts of plays that got card counters noticed, then banned.  Starting low and slow at the outset when you're shooting is just another way to keep a low profile at the tables.  And a low profile will assure that you will be able to shoot the dice as you please for a long time.....

Heavy

I don't get too concerned about "profiling" by the casinos because frankly, half the drunks that step up to the table get the macho thing going and throw out big money to "prove" they're a shooter - only to see the boys rake it on a point seven.  

Truth is, every player I know who plays at a professional or semi-professional level is either (a) a dark side grinder or (b) a precision shooter or (c) both a and be above.  

Most of the successful right way players I know play pretty much the same strategy - hit, regress, hit and down or hit and slow press progression.  

I've won roughly 85% of my sessions over the last three years - not quite as high as MP, but respectable enough.  My average win per session is just a tad under forty bucks.  The key is that I play a lot of sessions - around three hundred a year.  Full time players can get in even more than that - a thousand sessions a year or more.  So you can see, an average win of forty bucks or so - generating $40,000 cash dollars a year ain't bad.  

For every player knocking down 400K a year at the tables there are probably a hundred making 40K.  Add them all together and it's a huge amount of money.  But still, it's nothing compared to what's in the coffers.  

Why do so many precision shooters lose at the tables?  The same reason so many card counters lose at blackjack.  Read my lips, folks.  It's not just about influencing the dice.  If you don't have a conservative betting strategy, money management and discipline skills - you're STILL going to lose.  

Blue

For me anyway, while i've had some good rolls i'm probably a bit on the way too conservative side. But, i'm ok with that. I'm not trying to make a living or killing at the tables. I'm there to enjoy and appreciate the game. For all the casino games i've played through the years i can proudly say that for craps i've probably broke even or am a little ahead. From where i stand after pissing away 10's of thousands on other games, that ain't bad. I love the game and shooting the dice..for pure people watching, there is no other place like the craps table. Gotta love it.


Mad Professor

This is one of the best string of posts that I have read in a while on ANY message board!

Heavy is right on target when he says that he is satisfied with a $40 win.  I am too.   

Think about it this way.  

How many times have you been at a craps table and had a $40 profit in your rack?  Then you decided that you wanted to continue playing, to see if that paltry $40 could be turned into something really great?  Okay, how many times has that same session ended with a loss compared to how many times you turned that matchstick of profit into a lumber yard?  No very many, huh?

How many times have you looked back on a losing session, and considered the fact that at one point, you were actually up by $40 to $150?  Okay, NOW would you "settle" for that $40 profit instead of that $300 loss?

Most importantly, once you get to those small consistent wins, they have a tendency to turn into a couple of MAJOR $800 to $2000 wins.

The first indication that your Precision-Shooting is getting somewhere is when you have a number of break-even sessions.  At that point, the small (but "irritating") $40 to $150 wins start to show up.

Again, consistency is the key.  Once you start getting those small wins, you will be surprised at how the "major" wins have a tendency to start appearing.  What is important is that you lock in a profit at EVERY opportunity.

It took a few years of Precision-Shooting before I finally broke though the $100,000/year barrier.  It doesn't happen overnight, and it CAN NOT happen without proper money-management, dedication, determination, correct betting methods, passion, commitment, maturity, and iron-willed DISCIPLINE.

Shootitall

My two cents on this, a favorite topic.  I have concluded that there is what should be known as a "Craps Gap", where on one side of the chasm you have skill and intellectual knowledge, and on the other faith, money management  and bankroll.  With some players, this chasm is small enough to step across, with others Evel Kinevel coluldn't jump.  With each player the width is different.  It is up to the player to close this gap to a manageable gap.  You can practice, practice practice on your skills, but then the faith becomes foolhardiness with a slip in the ego.  personally, I have few losing sessions and they are always attrributed to faith/foolhardiness part. On the positive side, they are small.  When a casino prys $100 out of me, they earned it but I helped.  My wins are in the 1-5 hundred range, more toward the 1 to 2.  If you are trying to impress the crew or your best buddy, better watch the faith/foolhardiness.  This is a (to me) a recreational business and Should be treated as such.  So guys (and gals) figure your craps gap.  The smaller it is the more consistant will be your wins.

benjavid

Thanks to Mad P, Heavy, Irishsetter and rest of the gang who took the time to reply.

I guess, what burns my ass, is the people who absolutely do nothing with their game and come to the craps table half drunk and leave with pocket full of black chips.

I suppose another part of this is the level of dedication and committment you make to the game compare to other things in your life. I think Mad P is a great example of what you can be if you love that kind of lifestyle and you are going to put enough into your craft to finally arive at the sort of discipline it requires.

For me, winning small amounts of money is not satisfying. I don't disagree with you gentelmen. But I guess that is just my nature.

Pablo

The Mad P is right ... this is, one of the best discussions on  this subject!

I'm a big fan of the hit until you have a profit, and then and only then press.  After I press once I will take full profit the next time and after that press 1 unit each time.  Of course some people will make more money that you do at times.  However, how many times have you been at a table where everybody else is loosing money and you are either holding your own or winning?

I will also bet on random rollers but only after I have qualified them.

Check my trip reports for the Big Easy (Paul's Parables) and you will see that I walked with  $7, $49, $54 and $65 wins and with $80, $49, $50, $27 and $40 loss sessions.  There were some other larger ones on both sides but the fact remains that one needs to be able to WALK with both small wins and small losses when conditions dictate that it's time to move on.

Both Heavy and The Mad P have said that it's much easier to dig yourself out of a small hole than a large one, and believe me, I have been there, and they are right!

Just remember ? any win is better than any loss ? any day.

Stu

Great Posting.  This postings deals with real world money making issues....

To Mad P.  Your logic is undisputable.  Keep up the good work and the good message board postings.  The board needs your input.

On my last 4 trips to Atlantic City, I allowed my lack of discipline to cause huge losses on solo $10 tables and $5 tables.

benjavid

Hi guys:

I wanted to add another variable into this. How would your answers change for people who live next to the casinos and people who only get a chance to do this 1-3 times a year.

Mad Professor

Ben,

That's a good follow-up question.

If I only got to play craps 1 to 3 times a year, I can say, without a doubt, that I would be the worst dicesetting-wanna-be in the entire world.  BAR NONE!

With that small amount of actual in-casino play, my enthusiasm would only be outstripped by my anxiety to perform well.  I know that I would get discouraged if my results didn't live up to my expectations, and it would be hard for me to even get into the right frame of mind, let alone stay in that mindset.

If I am away from a table for more than three days, it takes several full hands before I am back in a groove.  This year, my weekly in-casino play-time has risen to ~34 hours per week.  This is significantly higher than my pre-2002 average of 20 to 30 hours per week, but with the exception of one horrendous losing day, I am VERY pleased with the results.

If I only played 1 to 3 times each year, the chances of having one of those "bankroll & discipline meltdown" sessions, would be extremely high.  On the heels of that, I would probably begin to wonder how so many other players have excelled at this game, and I wouldn't stop to consider that perhaps I had set my goals way too high.

Now, about Pablo's comment and question about "practicing 'til you puke".  I still stand by that suggestion, but with a slight revision.

Under "ideal" conditions, I would suggest about 10 hours of practice for every 1 hour of actual in-casino play.  You should continue that regimen until your CONSISTENCY catches up with both your per-roll profitablility and to your bankroll-discipline.  Only after you have achieved that, should you reduce your practice-to-real casino ratio.  However, DO NOT BE FOOLED.  If you do not intersperse your practice with SHORT real-casino sessions; then you won't have enough real-world data and notes in which to fine-tune your practice sessions.  It's a real balancing act.

After each casino session, you should be making very comprehensive notes which have to be followed up on during your at-home practice.  

If it's a throwing problem; then figure out a grip, or stance or release or targeting solution.  If it's a money-management problem; then use Monopoly money to track your usual betting moves.  If it's a chip-handling and bet-preparation problem; then buy some poker chips to practice with.  If it is a fatigue problem; then start working out to build stamina.

Whatever the problem(s) are, they are simply profitablility-obstacles that have to be overcome.  You have to deal with each one, and you have to deal with all the new ones that are uncovered once you solve and overcome the first set.  That is the nature of consistent success.

Stu

Mad P.  You did it again!!!!

Your last post hit on several KEY points.


REAL PLAY NEEDED

Though I lost on 4 trips to AC, it was because of  real play at the casinos, that I learned major points..... that I could not have learned just practicing alone.  

And yes from the notes from those sessions, I began to alter my practice session.  For example, I saw more 7-outs when the dice curved after the rollout (most of the time they curved together.)  I came home an began to practice the dice rolling straight and not curving.


SMALL WIN ON EVERY ROLL - GOOD OR BAD PHILOSPHY?

I believe I must change my Bet Strategy Thinking.  Right now I believe it is better to win a little on each roll of the dice, rather than wait for a few specific numbers (six and eight) to hit before the 7 shows.

With that thinking I'll play a version of the iron cross that has killed me.  I'll bet $10 (the $5 tables in AC are severely crowded) on the pass with a point of 4 with  no odds, I'll then place $12 6 and 8.  If I don't get a hit in 2 rolls, then I'll place $10 in the Field.

This is where I have gotten killed.  I' roll a 6 for a $4 profit.   Then I'll roll a 5 for a $10 loss.  Then I'll roll an 8 for a $4 profit.  Then I'll say to myself, "this field is killing me"., and I will take the $10 out of the field, then proceed to roll 4 field numbers.  Then I'll put the $10 field bet back down.....and then I will 7 out.

This type of scenario ($10 in and out of the Field) will go on for about 8 to 15 rolls.

I know believe it is better to play a full Iron cross $18 6 and $18 8, $10 5 and $10 field for 2 hits and regress to the $12 6 and $12 8....or.............

just play the $12 6 and $12 8 from the jump and wait for 2 hits before pressing.


MAD P.  SUGGESTIONS NEEDED!!!

Which of the 2 betting strategies above is better?  

And  what betting strategy would you offer for  the (frustrated but persistent) serious, want-to-be semi-professional precision shooter, with a $1,000 bankroll per trip.  (Each trip is 3 to 4 days in Atlantic City, with 2 trips per month.)

Thanks again for your advice.

Mad Professor

Okay, here's how to make the most of both your "practice" time and your "casino" time.

Your casino time will show you all kinds of things that are wrong with your Precision-Shooting.  Your DETAILED session notes will point to each one of them.  In most cases, when you try to make mid-course corrections in the casino, your bankroll suffers miserably.  That is when you should cut your casino-sessions short, and revert to the practice rig.

The practice rig is where you fine-tune and align your game; the casino is where you make your money.

Stu, you identified a "roll-out" problem in the casino, then corrected it in your practice sessions.  That's a good thing.

Now, let's talk about a bad thing.  In Precision-Shooting, your "signature numbers" MUST determine your betting methods, not the other way around.

We would all like to make profit off of every single roll of the dice that leaves our hand, but sadly, that is not the case.

You have to determine your own "signature numbers", then zero in on the best betting methods to extract as much money as possible from the table, while keeping the risk-level as low as possible.  

We determine our "signature numbers" on the practice rig.

If your dominant numbers after the come-out roll, in descending order of frequency are: 6, 8, 5, 4 and 9; then the Field is the last place you would want to put your money.  

Even though you get a nice payoff when the 4 and 9 hit, your wins on a 6 or 8 Place bet are diluted by the Field-loss offset.  It would be cheaper and much more profitable to bypass the Field, and Place bet that dime on the 5.  If the 4 starts showing up with regularity, a dime there would not only have a more profitable outcome than the Field ($18 payoff instead of $10), but a subsequent appearance of the 5, 6, or 8 wouldn't knock it out.

If the 6 & 8 are your predominant numbers; then you don't want anything diluting their payoff.  Just as a side note; in some cases if the 4 or 10 is my Pass Line point, I could care less if I EVER hit it.  If you get anywhere from twelve to eighteen hits on the 6 or 8 (bet as twins), and four to eight hits on the 9; then if and when the Pass Line point of 4 is repeated, it's just a happy coincidence.  Sure I like the free odds payoff on the 4, but buddy, I gotta tell ya, the real profit is already in my rack from that rash of 6's, 8's and 9's.

Again, your predominant "signature numbers" should dictate what numbers that you cover.

From your practice sessions, you should chart the percentage that EVERY number shows up.  Then compare it to the frequency charts that are found elsewhere on Irishsetters excellent site.  From there, you should be able to determine the relative profit-potential of each bet.

Initially, I would only cover the top one or two "signature numbers" that are not already covered by your Pass Line bet.  I would also strongly recommend a regression on those "signature numbers" bets after the first hit.  If they continue to roll in, you will have plenty of time to press them AFTER all of your action has been covered, AND you have already locked in a profit from your roll.

Stu

I like the concept of not trying to make mid-course corrections in the casino.

TWO MORE ROLLS THAN THE OTHER DIE

Along with practicing a straight roll (as opposed to curving roll), I am now practicing the same number of tumbles because of on my last trip to Atlantic City, 60% to 80% of the 7-outs were a 3 and 4, while I was using the flying V….even the 1 turn technique did not help much….but it was a good feeling to keep the dice on axis, even on the 7-out.

I’ve heard this problem referred to as double pitch…although I think of it as one die rolling 2, and specifically, 2 more times than the other.  Having the same number of tumbles would eliminate this problem.

SIGNATURE  NUMBERS

I have not tracked signature numbers in practice nor at the real table.  This is where I may need to go back to the drawing board.    When I practice I spend the time in the following ratio:

50%      -  Fluid and smooth throw (mirror like)
30%      -  Dice rolling on axis
20%      -  Dice rolling same number of tumbles
0%      - Figuring “signature numbers”

I seldom concern myself with the outcome of the faces.  I could devote some time to determining the percentages but I did not think it was accurate information.  

Unfortunately, I do not have the professional home rig that I see in the pictures on this fine site.  I have a simple rig -  a table with a towel on it - that I practice on daily. Do to the simplicity of my practice rig, and the varying degrees of actual table condition, I do not believe that my practice rig results would replicate a real table in the numbers that would come up.   Thereby making the determining of signature numbers ineffective.  If that belief system is not the most profitable, I am open for change.


SIGNATURE  NUMBERS MAY DEVELOP FOR EACH DIFFERENT ROLL AND TABLE

I was under the impression, that when you were away from the tables for a while, you played the minimum pass line bet and no place bets (or at least very minimum place bet) because you were not sure as to which numbers would show up.   This being the case, should we bet (as stated in your original playbook) the 6 & 8 and the other place numbers after they have repeated twice.

At my last table at the Tropicana, while using the flying V, the dealer made a comment on my roll, “There are a lot of 6 and 8’s”.

I look forward to your response.  I will now perk up my monitoring eyes, and figure the frequency of appearance of the place numbers on my first 3 casino tables.  If the 5 and 9 are not hitting, maybe one should only place them after I have locked up a profit for the roll?

Alan

I realize now just how important it is to appreciate signature numbers.  We all have them as dicesetters, and the wise player will recognize what they are and bet them accordingly.

I usually use the hard-ten on the come out and on rare occassions the mini-V or hard-4 and this throw sometimes results in a 4 or 10 as my point.  But my usual set is the cross-6s and frankly my signature numbers for my cross-6s are the 8 and 6.

I finally realized this on my last outing and now I press my bets starting from the inside and working out instead of pressing from the outside and working in.  

By pressing the inside numbers first, I tend to maximize my payoffs on each roll while I wait for the point to be hit.  And yes, Ive gone long rolls of hitting sixes and eights without ever hitting my point of 4 or 10 -- and with the payoffs from the 6s and 8s not hitting my 4 or 10 never really mattered.

One more change:  Ive also found that I tend to throw some hard 6s and hard 8s along the way and now I will make small bets on the hard 6 and hard 8.  Prior to this "realization" I only bet the hard 4 and hard 10.

Silly me--- I rarely throw a hard 4 or hard 10 with my cross sixes.

Heavy

Well, Alan - you've discovered the old pyramid progression - pressing the inside up first, then the outside.  So you might have two units each on the four and ten, four units each on the five and nine, and six units each on the six and eight - for example.  Yep - that's the way to play.

MickeyD

I FEEL for the player that only gets out 2 or 3 times a month (or less) because it's much harder to accept a small profit and even harder to swallow a loss.  You feel you need to make more out of each of these limited visits. And there-in lies the downfall of the bankroll; the bets are too high and they stay up at risk way too long because need for them to produce is so great.

In contrast, I play 2 -3 times a week so it's easier for me to accept the smaller wins, there's not so much pressure on me to come back home with something to show for my time.

The logic that every casino visitor should employ is simple. With so much stacked against you, you should consider it a major victory if you can come away with a win of any size! You've beaten the odds!  You have prevailed where so many others have failed!


benjavid

I think Mickey-D hit it right on. How close you are to the casinos and how accessable craps tables are to you, most of the time determines what results you are expecting from it.

If you live next door to casinos, there is always tomorrow, next week and so on and you can live with small wins that heavy is talking about. $40 dollars a session is miniscule if you only play 10-20 sessions a year. However for someone who gets to play 300 sessions a year, that is a different story.

Again we are talking about people who spend a lot of  time to get good at this game. practice quite a few times a month. Work on their strategies and get into taking notes and going back and analyzing them. If all of this is really looked at as just a hobby, then fine. But, if with our short lives we want to accomplish something with what time we have, then I declare that making 400-800 dollars a year for occasional player is rediculous. Even 12000-60000 dolllars a year is not that attractive if you are putting so much of your time and heart into something.  If we all live in the same country, last time I checked It took much more to be financially comfortable.

But, lets be honest, if the goal is to become so good at this game to play it professionally, what does it really take in terms of committment and dollar amount necessary to keep your life style where it is and hopefully make it better.

I am still not convinced that 40 dollars a session will take us there.

That is my two cents anyway.

Mad Professor

Ben,

Making $40 per session does not put you in Fat City by any means.  However, there is a natural progression to learning Precision-Shooting.

(i)  The "Lower-Losses" Phase:
This is when we use the betting methods and money-management techniques to minimize our losses.  Our shooting may not be great, but we have realized that it shows a lot of potential.  We practice until we puke...and then we practice some more!

(ii)  The "Break-Even" Phase:
This is where we have reduced our betting on random-rollers to a fair degree, and our own shooting sometimes produces good results and sometimes results in quick 7-Out losses.  We continue to refine our betting methods to coincide with our own signature numbers.

(iii)  The "Inconsistency & Frustration" Phase:
This is when our Precision-Shooting is yielding such disparate results.  Sometimes we have stellar hands in the 20 to 40 roll range, and the next time we pick up the dice, we get to keep them for a grand total of 40 SECONDS.  This is the stage where most players "stall out" with their game.  They can't or won't take the necessary steps to move up to the next level.

(iv) The "Redemption and Confirmation" Phase:
Ah, this is when we finally get some good and reliable consistency into our game.  The profit picture has improved to the point where our bankroll is showing steady increases.  Our confidence level is at an all-time high, and we can pretty much walk into any casino anywhere in the world, and adapt to the table and produce a consistent profit.

(v)  The "Decision" Phase:
This is the point where Precision-Shooting is generating several times more money that most conventional jobs, and we have to decide what we are going to do with our skill.  Do we abandon the weekly pay-check in favor of a riskier but higher payoff, or are we satisfied to use craps as an income-augmentation pursuit?

If you liken it to golf, you go from hacker to hustler to club pro to the Nike Tour, and finally to the PGA circuit.  How long you stay at each level is determined by all the other factors that I mentioned in my previous posts on this subject-string.

So consistent $40 wins tells us exactly where we are on the learning curve.  Further, when we start having that kind of consistency, you would be surprised at how frequently the HUGE wins have a way of occasionally tumbling in.

benjavid

Dear MP,

Nicely put. Your advice is invaluable to me. At least I know what is involved. I still think that there might be only a few people in the world that have the patience and the maturity to actually follow this route. But I can't imagine another route.

Next time you are in Nassau/Paradise Island, I like to invite you to my home.

Stu

I’ve said many time your message board postings rank up there with your articles.  I hope this message board-string continues forever.  Due to the valuable nature of your experience and success, I hope your articles and message board postings continue.

We do appreciate your information.  Your generosity is further appreciated because, if I were in your position, I would think someone would try to steal and publish my ideas, without giving the proper credit.  If you were to  write a book it would obviously be a success………so thanks.

PHASES

“Lower Loss phase” that hit me right between the eyes.

I did not see that phase as a step to progress.  I only saw the win (even if the win is just $1) and loose phase. On many of my trips I should have accepted the lower loss of the trip, as a major improvement and not just blow the whole bankroll trying to win just a little bit.

You did say in your “Mama said” article, that a small loss beats a huge loss any day.

I have now added “bankroll monitoring” as a indicator of what phase I am in.  It will be a big improvement to just hover around the break even phrase.

It seems as if I am in the “Inconsistency and Frustration” phrase.  I get tipped by players frequently, because of my good rolls.   Players are looking for me to roll again.  At the Caridge, where I had about $2 place bet on each number for the dealers, one dealer said, “Even I was sorry to see that roll end.” Etc. etc.

But the frustration of a quick point 7-out or a major loss causes me to abandon all discipline, and throw the whole bankroll away.  I stay at the table to long, like a child waiting for the magic to return again, as opposed to taking the $150 win and going to bed.  So Fatigue and Discipline are my major focus areas.


TRAVEL TIME, COST AND DISTANCE AS A PRESSURE

There is some added pressure if one travel 4 to 6 hours by bus, stays in a hotel, to want to see some profit to overcome these non-table but necessary expenses.  (It currently cost me $60 a day, with 80% comped meals, to stay [$33.40 a night] and eat in Atlantic City on the Sun – Th trips. [Fri night $75+ Sat nigh $95 to $150) And that can add to the repeating lack of discipline.

QUESTIONS TO THE MAD P.

I think you have helped me figured it out, but I have to hear it from your mouth.  Comment briefly on the “signature numbers” questions as posted in my previous post.   I do believe that the key is monitoring EACH table, irregardless of what our practice sessions shows, to see what numbers are repeating at THIS table.  Is that right?

Mad Professor

Here's the reasoning behind determining your own "Signature Numbers".

Regardless of your practice surface, your throws should be showing some sort of consistency.  If you use the same grip, stance, release, etc.; then the same sorts of numbers SHOULD be showing up.

Okay, now if you chart every number that you throw and compare it to the chart of expected outcomes (frequency of occurence) then you should be able to quickly determine your dominant signature numbers.

Yes, each craps table is different, but you should still see an alarming amount of the same numbers over and over and over again.  If not, it is your throwing that is "off", and not the table.

If that is the case, then set the dice in your usual set (let's say 3-V).  Then take a permanent black marker, and draw one straight and complete stripe around the non-axis faces.  That means on one dice it would be a black continuous stripe on the 3, 1, 4, and 6.  While on the other die , it would be on the 3, 5, 4, and 2.

Now when the dice are set up and thrown in the 3-V format, you should be seeing each dice fly through the air while showing one continuous streak of black.  You can use this method to determine when and how one or both dice are going off axis.

Your signature numbers determine how we bet at the tables when it is your turn to shoot.  Initially, we restrict our Place betting to cover only the top one or two signature numbers that are not already covered by our Pass Line bet.

As the signature numbers hit, we lock up a profit.  On subsequent hits, we use a portion of the signature number hit-profit to fuel either increased bets on those top one or two Place numbers, OR, if our lower eschelon signature numbers are also rolling,; then we use some of that profit to fuel bets on those new Place numbers.

Stu

Thanks for the response.

I have been practicing for the last 6 months with dice with colored (yellow and black) tape on the 4 non-axis sides of each die.  I throw with the intent to see one continuos streak of yellow on one die and one continuous streak of black on the other.  This also lets me know which die is coming off axis.

However, I did not monitor the faces at all.  In fact, I wanted a pair of dice with no pips on them to further disregard the faces in the quest for the smooth flowing  throw, without considering the outcome, since the  tape did not cover all of the pips.

I use the casino dice with the hole drilled through them (cancelled dice).  I put the tape to cover the hole, so that my fingers do not touch the hole while I’m practicing, since there are no holes in the dice at the casino.

I have also used a magic marker on the non-axis faces.

Also, when I practiced the “set”  it was only to be able to set quickly (within 2 seconds), while still not considering the outcome of the throw.


NEW ANGLE

I will now practice the throw and set with the intent to also, see which numbers come up more frequently.


MEGA KUDOS

This string of post in the last 2 days has been EXCEPTIONAL, since my thirst for result producing details is at an all time high.  I’ve been off work for a while, and I’m glad I had this opportunity, away from the 9 – 5, to take in these major concepts.   

Also, probably being off work added a little pressure to “make” something happen at the table….which will erode the discipline.

Mad Professor

Stu,

ANY, and I mean ANY added weight to the dice will throw off your Precision-Shooting.

It's time to get a new set of dice!

Your current set is not going to give you anything but a skewed picture of what you are really capable of.

I was even reluctant (because of the added weight) to suggest using the "black-ink stripe" to mark the non-axis, but the tape that you are using is NOT the solution!

Once you have a nice fluid throwing-motion, it is important to monitor the dice-outcomes, because, in the casino, it means the difference between making and losing money.

By monitoring the dice-outcomes, we arrive at our signature numbers.  There is a lot of terrific profit-potential buried in just those few numbers.  Once you focus in on them, you may be surprised at just how much more profit your rolls can generate.

Like I said before, if the 6 & 8 (bet as twins) show up twelve to eighteen times, and the 9 shows up four to eight times during a hand, I could care less if my Pass Line Point of 4 EVER hits.

Once you have determined what your signature numbers actually are; then you can tailor your betting patterns to suit your own Precision-Shooting.

Again, this is something for you to practice at home.  You can make paper bets at the beginning and throughout each hand.  If you find it easier to use Monopoly money; then go ahead.  

The idea Stu, is to make realistic tosses, realistic bets, and realistic decisions at home on your practice rig.  That way, when you get into the casino, you are more desensitized to the whole casino-distraction scenario.  You can make your betting moves with confidence, and with mechanical certainty.

Likewise, your at-home throwing will yield at stream of numbers that you should pretty much be able to replicate in the casino.  So when you see your old reliable signature-number friends showing up with regularity, you know that you are definitely on track to profit.

Stu

I have taken the tape off of the dice, but they are so sticky now I will put those on the shelf.   (And I had been practicing with those same dice for about 6 months.)

I just pulled up the web page of the general store, and for $10 I can get a set of 5, new, polished, razor sharp edge dice.  I will order them today.  (It seems as if I recall someone posting a site, that sells dice for of that…if someone remembers please post a web site.)

The Irishsetter had a good article in his previous newsletter about the benefit of new dice.  I should have heeded it sooner.

I have put the magic marker (on the 4 sides of the non axis) on another set of dice that I have, though cancel, they have never had tape on them.  When the new dice arrive, I will work exclusively with the new dice, since they don’t have that hole in the side, which further replicates the casino experience.

I like the point to become “desensitized to the casino distractions”.  I’m still mesmerized with the waitresses with the big boobs.

Thanks again for the result producing information.    I have a LOT of work to do!!!

Heavy

Stu --

$10.50 - $10.95 is pretty much the going rate on the internet for a stick of five new dice.  You can get them for about a buck a stick cheaper at the store in Vegas, but it'll probably cost you more than a buck to get there.  

I suggest you get a stick of red and a stick of green dice - mix 'em up and toss with one red and one green.  The composite may be  slightly different and they may react somewhat differently on the bounce - but you will easily be able to tell which die is going off axis - and take corrective action.  

A little talc on the fingertips works very well if the dice are getting sticky on you.

daveygene

time out!!!! i`ve got to get another ream of paper.  this thread needs more than reading, it needs STUDYING. thanks to each and every one.

Stu

I agree with daveygene.

I thank EVERYONE in this string of post, especially the Mad P. for providing the information that can only come from experience and long hours at the tables….he is second to none in this category.

Also in this string of post, everyone was realistically trying to learn or give information that others can use.  There was no smart mouthing…or getting into a pissing contest.  (Irishsetter has done a great job in keeping the integrity of the site high.  I thank Irishsetter again for this informative site.)

What a birthday present!!

I was supposed to post an AC trip report for my last 4 trips in Apr and May, but most it is in this post and the other “Mad P It’s Your Money Part 2”.  I see major lessons, that I did not see before.

I’ve got a LOT, I  mean a LOT, of work to do. But I feel I’m headed in the right direction.

Shotputter

Good suggestion MP, one I've taken up in the last few weeks. My practice sessions run about an hour. First half hour is targeted on throwing, grip and target area. Last half hour is simulated hands, betting (and payoffs) with chips.

For the stamina part, I bought a few dumbbells (3,5,10, 15 lbs) and started working with the lighter ones simulating the throwing motion both from SL and SR (they are much different motions). I checked in with a weight trainer and started working on a series of repetitions and rest from both sides. This can be done anywhere, not just at your practice table. It works up the stamina and builds and firms muscle in the right area. The dice feel a lot lighter when I'm throwing since I've started. My SRR hasn't improved any, but my throw feels better and more relaxed.

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