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Regression Avoids Depression

Part 21 

 

Let me ask you something.

 

How long has it been since your dice-influencing winnings actually doubled your total gaming bankroll?

 

Letís say that you would give up dice-influencing altogether if you lost a total of $3000; how long has it been

since your dice-influencing winnings actually increased your I-will-give-up-craps-if-I-lose-x-amount of total

gaming bankroll by more than double? 

 

If thatís too tough of a question or if you refuse to consider the amount of money that you are continually

feeding in to repeatedly prop up your sessional buy-ins from an undefined total bankroll; then let me ask

you this:

 

When was the last time your precision-shooting winnings actually justified an increase in the basic

advantage-play bets that you currently spread on the table?

 

That is, when did your total winnings, not just your Iím-on-a-good-roll-so-Iíll-press-up-my-bets-with-some-

of-my-winnings, justify an increase in the value of your basic advantage-play bets?

 

I ask you all of this because today Iím going to show you how long it will generally take for you to

DOUBLE an optimally-sized bankroll if you based your positive-expectation bets strictly on your CURRENT shooting skills

 

When was the last time someone did THAT for you (that didnít include a crazy ďparlay it to the moonÖ

stack it, never rack it until you reach the table-maxĒ method)?

 

Advantage-play dice-influencing is all about taking the skills that you currently have, and using

them to extract a predictable profit on the positive-expectation wagers that you make. 

 

If you have the skill (and frankly, your actual D-I abilities donít have to be much above random); and you

make the bets that are sized to your actual advantage (no matter how small it is); then you can reasonably determine approximately how long it will generally take for you to double your bankroll

 

Now obviously Iím not going to factor in any of the frivolous bets where you waste your money on random-

rollers and unqualified hunches; thatís between you, your conscience, and the day-job that you need to

 keep in order to continually feed what would otherwise be an excellent second source of income.  Rather,

Iím going to show you how, if you actually allowed yourself to do it, that it would take for you to double an

optimally-sized bankrollÖbased entirely on your current skills and NOT on a someday-in-the-improbable-

ottery-winning-future fantasy.

 

 Prepare To Make More Money

 

My advantage-play philosophy is all about extracting a net-profit from as many of our current

hands as possible without unduly restraining our overall earnings-power nor unduly

endangering our bankroll.

 

That simply means that I like to make as much money with as little risk as possible.  It also means that I understand the need to focus my money on the wagers that I am most likely to collect from during the

point-cycle.

 

Iíll remind you again that it is important that you start to think about your bets in relation not only to the

size of the buy-in money that you bring to the table (thatís your ďsession buy-inĒ), but more importantly

how much money your current skill-level (when combined with your intended wagers) demand and require

in terms of a reasonable overall bankroll to ensure a low-risk shot at reasonable profit-growthÖand

bankroll doubling.

 

Now although you may choose not to apply optimally-sized wagers to your dice-influencing skills at

the present time; thereís nothing to say that you wonít be able to work your way up to making optimally-

sized bets over a reasonable period of time; itís just that it will obviously take much, much longer to get there.

 

The following is a compilation, by SRR-rate, for each of the global bets that weíve been discussing in

this series; so you may want to print out the table that pertains to your current SRR skill-level for a quick

in-casino reference guide.

 

Iíll also mention again that these advantaged-plays are based on regressing your bets at the optimal

ISR trigger-point, and obviously if you venture off-path with the trigger-point (thereby sub-optimally

regressing your bets); then your profit-mileage is going to suffer a substantial penalty.

  

SRR-7

Optimal Bankroll

for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers

Steepness Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Inside

$9167

$13,750

$18,334

$22,917

$45,833

Across

$15,238

$22,857

$30,476

$38,095

$76,190

Outside

$12,121

$18,182

$24,242

$30,303

$60,606

Even

$10,232

$15,349

$20,465

$25,581

$51,162

Iron Cross

$11,000

$16,500

$22,000

$27,500

$55,000

6 & 8

$4138

$6207

$8276

$10,345

$20,690

5 & 9

$5000

$7500

$10,000

$12,500

$25,000

4 & 10

$7692

$11,538

$15,385

$19,230

$38,461

 

SRR-8

Optimal Bankroll

for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers

Steepness Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Inside

$3520

$5280

$7040

$8800

$17,600

Across

$5470

$8421

$10,940

$13,675

$27,350

Outside

$3922

$5882

$7843

$9804

$19,608

Even

$3760

$5641

$7521

$9401

$18,803

Iron Cross

$3928

$5893

$7857

$9821

$19,643

6 & 8

$1621

$2432

$3243

$4054

$8108

5 & 9

$1786

$2679

$3571

$4464

$8928

4 & 10

$2174

$3261

$4348

$5435

$10,870

 

SRR-9

Optimal Bankroll

for each of these Initial Steep Regression wagers

Steepness Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Inside

$2065

$3098

$4131

$5164

$10,329

Across

$3106

$4660

$6213

$7767

$15,534

Outside

$2162

$3243

$4324

$5405

$10,810

Even

$2115

$3173

$4230

$5288

$10,577

Iron Cross

$2189

$3283

$4378

$5473

$10,945

6 & 8

$941

$1412

$1882

$2353

$4706

5 & 9

$990

$1485

$1980

$2475

$4950

4 & 10

$1198

$1796

$2395

$2994

$5988

 

Okay, letís take a slightly different look at how the recommended amount of total bankroll goes down as

your SRR-rate go up. 

 

Optimal Bankroll for

Steep Regression Betting

ISR
Steepness Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

 

5:1

 

10:1

Inside

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$9167

$13,750

$18,334

$22,917

$45,833

SRR-8

$3520

$5280

$7040

$8800

$17,600

SRR-9

$2065

$3098

$4131

$5164

$10,329

Across

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$15,238

$22,857

$30,476

$38,095

$76,190

SRR-8

$5470

$8421

$10,940

$13,675

$27,350

SRR-9

$3106

$4660

$6213

$7767

$15,534

Outside

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$12,121

$18,182

$24,242

$30,303

$60,606

SRR-8

$3922

$5882

$7843

$9804

$19,608

SRR-9

$2162

$3243

$4324

$5405

$10,810

Even

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$10,232

$15,349

$20,465

$25,581

$51,162

SRR-8

$3760

$5641

$7521

$9401

$18,803

SRR-9

$2115

$3173

$4230

$5288

$10,577

Iron Cross

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$11,000

$16,500

$22,000

$27,500

$55,000

SRR-8

$3928

$5893

$7857

$9821

$19,643

SRR-9

$2189

$3283

$4378

$5473

$10,945

6 & 8

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$4138

$6207

$8276

$10,345

$20,690

SRR-8

$1621

$2432

$3243

$4054

$8108

SRR-9

$941

$1412

$1882

$2353

$4706

5 & 9

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$5000

$7500

$10,000

$12,500

$25,000

SRR-8

$1786

$2679

$3571

$4464

$8928

SRR-9

$990

$1485

$1980

$2475

$4950

4 & 10

 

 

 

 

 

SRR-7

$7692

$11,538

$15,385

$19,230

$38,461

SRR-8

$2174

$3261

$4348

$5435

$10,870

SRR-9

$1198

$1796

$2395

$2994

$5988

How Many Hands To Double My Bankroll?

Now that we know how big of an overall bankroll we would ideally have when we are making these sorts

of multi-number, multi-hit global-bets; letís consider how quickly we can double our starting bankroll.

Bet-Type

SSR-7

SSR-8

SSR-9

Inside

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

2303 hands

196 hands

83 hands

Across

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

1455 hands

302 hands

120 hands

Outside

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

2484 hands

320 hands

80 hands

Even

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

1987 hands

178 hands

72 hands

Iron Cross

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

2546 hands

469 hands

176 hands

6 & 8

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

326 hands

82 hands

35 hands

5 & 9

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

796 hands

89 hands

36 hands

4 & 10

 

 

 

Hands to Double

recommended bankroll

810 hands

112 hands

31 hands

 

Youíll notice that some betting-methods provide bankroll-doubling much quicker than other methods

even though they are still within the same SRR skill-rate.  This is because the Initial Steep Regression

(ISR) trigger-point (where the large initial wager is reduced to a smaller subsequent wager) varies

amongst these wagers.  As a result, some global-bets have a higher pre-regression hit-rate than others. 

 

For example:

 

ō      An SRR-7 shooter betting the Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9) and optimally regressing his bets after just

      one paying hit; will require about 2300 hands in order to double his above-noted bankroll. 

 

ō      Meanwhile the same shooter using the All-Across (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) wager will only require

      just under 1500 advantage-play hands to accomplish the same thing since the All-Across

      wager at this skill-level permits two hits at the initial pre-regression large-wager before being

      optimally reduced to a smaller one; while the Inside-bet demands an optimal regression after just

      one hit for the SRR-7 skill-level.

 

ō      Likewise, the SRR-8 shooter who bets the Anything-But-7 Iron Cross regression will need to

      throw about 470 hands to double his recommended bankroll, but will only require about 80 hands

      to double his money if he sticks to a less-encompassing wager like Place-betting the 6 and 8.

 

ō      The added benefit for that shooter using an ISR on the Place-bet 6 & 8, is that he can also afford

       to start with a much smaller overall bankroll than that required by the Iron Cross wager even

       though his current skill-level is exactly the same no matter what he bets on. 

 

ō      In this case heíd want to have a total gaming bankroll of just $1600 in order to properly take

      advantage of his shooting skills for a 2:1 regression on the Place-bet 6 and 8 ($12 each on the

      6 and 8, regressed down to $6 each); but heíd need an optimal starting bankroll of almost

      $4000 if he wanted to do the same 2:1 regression on the Iron Cross ($44 I-C regressed down to

      $22 I-C).

 

Why Require So Much of a Total Bankroll If We Can Double Our Money So Quickly?

 

When we look at combining our current dice-influencing talents with an Initial Steep Regression, we soon

discover just how quickly it can double our bankroll if we trigger the bet-regression at the optimal timeÖ

but only if we are properly financed to begin with.

 

The reason it is critically important to have an adequately-sized bankroll in the first place, is because

not every hand we throw will be a winner, and there could very well be periods when we make major

total gaming bankroll draw-downs.

 

If you try to make do with less, you could possibly succeed, but more likely youíll go down the same

path of ruin that so many skilled-but-under-funded players before you ventured.

 

When you have a validated edge over the house, it will prevail, but you have to have the sufficient funds

in order to weather the volatility swings that inevitably occur along the way.

 

You can be a crack-shot with the dice, but if you donít have the bankroll-ammo; you arenít l

ikely going to hit ANY of your win-targets.

 

 Good Luck & Good Skill at the TablesÖand in Life.

 

Sincerely,

 

The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2006

 

 

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