Then I thought about how my mind actually works.  That would be a great lead-in line to a joke if my ex-wife was writing this, but seriously, I thought about how the mind actually tracks and charts all on it's own without the aid of paper or pencil.

We collect, absorb and organize billions of bits of information everyday.  Some of us do it better than others.  Some of us have sieves for brains, while others have steel-door vaults.  We as humans are the most complicated computers ever designed.  We learn from experience (tracking) and knowledge (charting) the When, Where, Why, What and How of life as we know it.

Some people appear to learn intuitively, while others just don't seem to be able to grasp certain concepts that are normal to you and I.  You may have said to yourself "they'll never learn", even though you tried your hardest to teach someone.  The same can be said about craps.

Some people will follow what is happening at the tables and apply a strategy that is best suited to match it.  While it is no guarantee of winning, it sure beats trying to hold back the ocean tides with your hands.  Oh sure, you can bet against a trend, but watch out because here comes another wave and your money is about to be swept out to sea.

I thought about the countless people who come up to the table and ask: "What are the dice doing?" or "Is the table still cold?" or "Anybody rolling any numbers?" or "Are the dice warming up?" or "Is it hot or cold at this table?" or "How many Points were made by the last three shooters?" 

Ironically, even if you say that the dice are hot enough to warm the heart of a hooker, they put down a huge Don't Pass bet AND they Lay the odds…and proceed to lose.  Or if you tell them that the dice are cold enough to freeze the devil right out of hell, they immediately put money on the Pass Line with full odds…and then lose. 

Is it my face that they don't trust?  Oh sure, when I was born the doctor slapped me, then slapped my father for producing such a baby…but I don't think it's the credibility of my face that makes them behave that way.  Maybe it's how I say it.  Oh sure, I went to the "Sylvester the Cat" School of Speech when I was younger, but despite the charges, I've never actually been convicted of drowning any victims…I mean listeners, so it can't be that!

Why are these people asking those questions, then ignoring the answers?   Are they being friendly and don't really want to know the answer, but rather just want to "break the ice" as they enter the game?  Are they interested in the information but they don't trust the answer?  Do they want the information, and being contrarian-investors in real life, decide that whatever the "market" or in this case the dice are doing, they should "invest" or bet against it?  Or perhaps the answer lies in the fact that their mind will somehow find comfort in knowing what has been happening in the recent past on this particular table, but having that knowledge now, as comforting as it is, they implement their battle-plan while ignoring important tactical intelligence provided directly from the front-line troops.  The attitude seems to be "damn the torpedoes, full odds ahead." 

Imagine having an Army General who completely ignores what is happening on the battlefield right now.  Imagine that he doesn't care that his plan that looked good on paper is now useless because of different factors that have come into play.  Imagine being one of the soldier that he will use as cannon-fodder, instead of being deployed where your chances of victory and survival are strongest.  Now imagine being a citizen of that general's country.  By him ignoring what is happening on the battlefield, and running the high risk of making a huge strategic error, you just might lose the whole war.  The losers sometimes envy the dead!

In this case, you can ignore what is happening at the table, but you risk losing your bankroll.  In both cases, it will probably be a bloody and unnecessary loss.

Here's a qualifying thought:

Unless you are a Precision-Shooter who has perfected your throw so that you can predictably make decent money 19-out-of-20 times that you get to shoot the dice, AND, you play mostly at casinos where you will be the "solo" shooter most of the time; then you may want to consider Tracking the Dice and Charting the Table.

When you go to a casino you cannot go in there with a pre-conceived idea that you will be a Pass Line or a Don't Pass bettor. You must enter the game totally open-minded.

Watch the game for awhile, maybe three to five decisions. You must decide if the table is trending Hot or Cold, or is it Lukewarm, or Choppy, or Cool but Calm. Whatever it's doing, you determine what is happening.  That should help you choose the appropriate play, and also the appropriate size of your bet.  Again, this is no guarantee that your bet is going to win, but at worst it doesn't do any harm. 

Yes the dice are random, but only so in the "big picture" of things.  If you don't believe that, then read my "I Wish I Knew Then …" article.  If you don't invest the time to learn, then stay at home and mutter aimlessly to your cat about how unfairly the world has treated you.

Without trends, the game would not even exist.  During the normal fluctuations of the game, streaks occur.  We never know for certain when a streak will end, but we sure can enjoy it while it is happening.   The first part of getting to that joy is in determining when it is happening.  I'm reminded of the experiment where a rat is placed into a boiling pot of water.  It immediately jumps out because the water is too hot.  The rat recognizes that, and instantly bails out.  But when the rat is placed in room-temperature water and a gradual heat is applied until the water is boiling; the rat comfortably wallows in his tepid swimming pool until he turns into soup.  Most players can only distinguish a really Hot or Cold trend when it is happening to them, and usually only in hindsight. The highly skilled "in-tune" player discerns the trend while it is occurring and translates that knowledge into money through proper application of appropriate methods. 

The "in-tune" player is involved on a much higher plane than some idiot that barks at cars and sniffs bicycle seats.  The player who tracks the tables and charts the dice, and fully understands what the numbers really mean, hears the game, and feels the game at a much higher level.   I suppose it's a Zen-like state of craps playing.

I personally do not put pen to paper when I'm at the table, but I can honestly say that my brain is processing everything that is happening.  I am constantly re-evaluating and re-adjusting my approach when a random-roller is shooting.  In that way, my bets that are out on the table are poised to take maximum advantage by most closely matching what is happening at that moment, and what is likely to occur in the next moment.

Most naysayers will ask, "Are the dice more likely to roll a certain number based on what has been rolled?"  With a random-roller, we do not know what the next number will be.  However, in knowing that trends exist, we are left to decide if we are going to ride the wave to profit and glory, or whether we are going to hopelessly stand on the beach and let a tidal wave tsunami wash all of our casino hopes and dreams away.  

In a future article I'll show you exactly how to chart a table in a meaningful and intelligent way.  Then I'll reveal how to determine what the numbers are actually indicating.  Finally, I'll tell you how to profit from that knowledge.

In the meantime…I'm waxin' up my surf board, 'cause the Big Kahuna and the Mad Professor are gonna catch this bitchin', trendin' wave of profit!!

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables

By: The Mad Professor

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