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How To Get It, and How To Keep It

Part 15


Death By A Thousand Cuts Is Optional, Not Obligatory

As we've discussed before, $5 and $10 games give most dice-influencers all kinds of betting flexibility that the more expensive $15, $25, and $50 ones don't.

For example; $5 games let you keep the initial "large bet" portion of a Steep Regression safely within the confines of a limited session bankroll, and I am all for that; while $10 tables make modestly bankrolled players actually THINK a little bit more about the bets they are about to make…or at least, I HOPE that’s the case.

However, the downside of playing on the cheapest table in the joint is that it is usually also the most crowded. That impacts not only how long it will take for the dice to circle back around to you, but you also usually have to deal with somewhat cramped conditions under which to throw the dice; plus there’s that not-inconsequential factor of having to expose your bankroll to an increased number of random-betting situations.

When a player factors in the amount of money that he normally loses to random-betting on a crowded $5 or $10 table; he discovers that he could not only afford to be betting at a lower-population, higher bet-minimum table; but as a bonus, he quickly realizes that he'd also not only be getting the dice back into his own advantage-play hands much more frequently than at a cheaper one…in a less cramped shooting-position, but he’d also be making a heck of a lot more money in the process.

The financial benefits that this three-fold advantage offers should not be overlooked by those wanting to move their game-profitability up a notch or two.

~Fewer players at a less populated table means you'll have less random-betting temptation to deal with, as well as having to endure less time, impatience, and fatigue between your own shooting-rounds.

~The less players there are at a table; the fewer land-mine chip-stacks at the other end of the table your dice will have to dodge, and the more room you’ll have to execute a consistently repeatable throw.

~Having more frequent shooting opportunities also means that it is easier to get grooved-in on a particular table, and much easier to stay grooved-in; plus you'll be wagering more money on actual advantage-play betting situations, and less on random ones.

Though I always strongly counsel against betting beyond your comfort-level when you are shooting; I also counsel strongly on reducing your negative-expectation bets to an absolute minimum.

Look at it this way...

~Even $10 or $12 wagered on each random-roller during just one cycle around a crowded table equates to $150 to $180 in random bets.

~If you are betting $12 each on the 6 & 8, or $22-Inside at a jam-packed table; that can equate to almost $300 in random-bets during just one lap around the table.

~The critical question you have to ask yourself is whether or not YOUR shooting is good enough to overcome the house-edge erosion on all of those negative-expectation R-R bets, and whether you are giving your own positive-expectation shooting enough opportunity to succeed.

For example, if you are prepared to bet $150 or $180 on R-R's during just one lap around the table; then to my mind, you should also be prepared to bet at least two, three or four times that much on yourself...or at least as much as the $150 or $180 you currently bet on R-Rs; otherwise you are likely just trading dollars back and forth with the casino...with very little profit to show for all your effort.

That is, if the edge that your D-I skills give you over the casino are immediately surrendered back to them in the form of random bet losses; then what the heck are you doing in the casino? You aren't going to make much, if any, money that way...especially if your R-R loses outpace your own advantaged winnings.

And frankly, that hardly sounds like a fair exchange.

Viewed the opposite way...

~If you, as a dice-influencer aren't prepared to bet $150 to $180 on your own positive-expectation advantage-play rolls; then it's pretty darn hard to honestly justify making $150 to $180 in negative-expectation bets on random-rollers while still rationally hoping to emerge with a net-profit from the whole process...especially if you keep on doing that lap after lap after lap.

~Each bet that you make on a random-roller has an impact on your bankroll; sometimes it's positive, and sometimes times it’s negative; but the cumulative effect is one of slow erosive bleeding.

~Each little R-R bet-loss is often casually passed off by the dice-influencer; but over time, each one of those tiny cuts can add up to a large cumulative loss of blood from your precious bankroll, especially if your precision-shooting skills are not yet developed enough to overcome and heal those negative-expectation wounds.

How much you bet on random-rollers is entirely up to you, but when you weigh the random-bet cost of playing at a cheap, cramped, and crowded table to the potential benefits of playing at a less-crowded, but slightly more expensive one where you can focus more of your money on your own advantaged shooting; you may be surprised to discover that your bankroll’s Death By A Thousand Cuts Is Optional, Not Obligatory.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.




The Mad Professor

Copyright © 2006 


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