Some players bet with more mental
certainty on negative-expectation random-rollers than they do on
their own validated positive-expectation bets.
Think about it.
When it comes to betting on random-rollers, most dice-influencers have a
certain pattern that they follow when it comes to wagering on
negative-expectation situations. If they lose a bet on a R-R, their next R-R
bet will still be pretty much of the same size and scope as the one before,
and R-R bet after that one will also be pretty much of the same size and
They may not bet large amounts of money, but the random-roller bets
that they do make are done with large amounts of mental certainty.
Mental certainty, in this case, is not about whether you think a bet will
win or lose; but rather the amount of conviction and confidence you have in
making the bet itself.
If your standard R-R bet is a $12 6 and 8 Place-bet; then there’s probably
very little fear when it comes time to actually put the chips down on the
table. Though you don’t know ahead of time whether it will win or lose; you
accept the fact that you are making a negative-edge bet, and in doing so,
you make it with a high level of conviction and a low level of stress.
Compare that to how you feel when it comes time to bet on your own hands.
How much mental certainty do you have when it comes to making
a positive-expectation bet on your own validated advantage-play
Do you make those wagers with a bit of hesitation...thinking perhaps that
you should be putting a little more money out there?
Or do you feel some anxiety in terms of worrying more about the money that
you are putting on the table instead of the actual task of influencing the
dice in a positive way?
As precision-shooters, it is important that we not screw up our
We need to know that the bets we make (when the dice are in our hands), are
the ones that are best matched to our current skills.
We also have to uphold and support that knowledge with a level of
betting-confidence that parallels the consistency of our skills.
If our betting-confidence or our shooting-confidence vacillates and is
easily spoiled by one or two not-so-good hands, and our bet-decisions waver
with uncertainty and trepidation; then it’s likely that our shooting will
also reflect that fear and apprehension.
That can't be a good thing in terms of producing great results.
On the other hand, if we’ve validated our actionable edge over the house
with both at-home and in-casino verification; then our betting-confidence
should stay bouyant despite one or two non-productive hands, and therefore
we should be betting on our own hands with a high level of conviction
and a low level of stress, just like when we bet lower amounts of
money on random-rollers.
In fact, betting on yourself should be way less stressful than
betting on random-rollers. One is negative-expectation and the other is
positive-expectation, but looking at the way some people bet with
trepidation on their own advantaged hands and without fear
on random-rollers; you'd think it was the other way around.
Though that doesn’t mean we should try to “shoot through” a shooting slump
when our toss is in the toilet, it does means that we can make a small
tactical retreat to fix the shooting problem before retackling the tables
with as high a bet-confidence and mental-certainty as before.
It is critically important to understand that
our edge over the house WILL NOT redeem itself on every toss
in every hand and in every session. Rather, it will redeem itself
over roughly the same range of rolls on which you first validated your edge.
So, for example, if you first validated your edge on let’s say the 6 & 8
Place-bet over a toss-sampling of 300 in-casino rolls; then you can expect
that it will generally redeem itself to that same approximate level
again over the same number of in-casino rolls. However, it also means that
you’ll probably toss a number of totally crappy hands along the way…the
same as you did when you were first validating the very same edge you are
seeking to exploit right now.
The same ebb and flow of results that you endured during your
edge-quantification/validation period is likely to roughly repeat itself
during your edge-exploitation/profit-making stage too. It would be foolish
to expect otherwise, and it would also be foolish to abandon your
geared-to-skill wagers on your already validated advantage-shooting just
because you threw a couple or three hands that stunk up the joint.
You have to bet with AT LEAST as much mental certainty as you do when
you plunk your money down on a random-roller…and hopefully with an ever
increasing amount of certainty as your validated-edge redeems itself on the
growing number of advantaged-bets that you hit.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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