
Regression Avoids
Depression The
use of Initial Steep Regressions control and regulate the amount of negative volatility
that your bankroll will have to endure during any given session. Ø Two of the primary aspects of that control come from the rollduration decayrate and the betsurvival rate that your currently valid incasino SRRrate produces for each bet.
Ø
These
fundamental volatilityrange determinants are especially useful for global (multinumber,
multidecision) types of wagers.
Ø
Your
Expectedvalue (EV) on any given bet is affected by the positive magnitude and range of
your ability to influence the dice. That is, the more influence you have over the dice,
the stronger your EV will be on certain bets, and therefore your session bankroll will
endure less whipsaw volatility because of it.
Ø
Each
diceset and its resultant SevenstoRollsRatio (SRR) has its own deviation range over
which some bets fall into positive territory and some fall onto the negative side of it.
Ø
Each
diceset produces its own array of highEV, lowEV, and negativeEV wagers. Wagering on a few highEV bets will almost always
be more profitable than spreading the same amount of money across a wider range of
lowerEV wagers. Putting
the 5 and 9 Placebet Under a Microscope
With
the use of certain dicesets, the 5 and 9 often turn out to be the most dominant
SignatureNumbers that you produce. It is
heartening to see an increasing amount of skilled players take advantage of the Signature
Numbers that their current diceinfluencing skills are producing instead of betting on
outcomes that they wish they could produce.
Ø
In
randomexpectancy, we’ll see four 5’s and four 9’s against six appearances
of the 7, which equates to eight appearances of the 5 and 9 for every six appearances for
the 7.
Ø
That
8:6 ratio means a randomroller can expect a 5’sand9’sto7’s
appearancerate of 1.33:1, and even though a winning Placebet pays 7:5, it is still
not enough to overcome the houseedge. As a
result, randomrollers stay on the negativeside of the expectation curve with this bet,
while diceinfluencers cross over into positive territory on a regular basis. Why
ISR’s Work So Well With Simple 5 & 9 Placebets
In
a random outcome game, the 5 and 9 constitutes 22.22% of all possible
outcomes. There
are:
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5.
Ø Four ways to make an 9. As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased
SRRrate.
Although
the sheer number of 5’s and 9’s doesn’t rise that dramatically when your
shootingskill improves; the real difference comes in the reduced appearancerate of
handending 7’s. In the chart above, an
SRR9 shooter only generates slightly more 5’s and 9’s than a randomroller does
(8.5 versus 8.0). However, since his
diceinfluencing produces a lower overall sevensappearancerate, his actual
5’sand9’sto7’s ratio improves by more than 62% (from 1.33 to 2.14). That
is a healthy increase that a savvy advantageplayer simply cannot ignore. Anatomy
Of a 5
& 9
Placebet
The
primary advantageplay ruleofthumb is: The
fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning hits you will
need in order to produce a netprofit.
Placebetting
the 5 and 9 only requires two winning hits to repay your initial basebet before breaking
into netprofitability. As
a flatbetting advantageplayer, two hits on either the 5 or 9 seems like a modest
goal; but you have to maintain perspective and think about all of the times when
you’ve only hit one of them. If
you add up all of those frustrating onerollshortofaprofit losses; you’ll
quickly see that the number of winning hands that you need to throw, actually exceeds
that twohitsrequired mark because of all those onehitisn’tenough
performances. In
other words, the more you miss, the more you have to hit…just to break even. To
be totally fair though, it still doesn’t take very much diceinfluencing skill for
this wager to be a steady profit contributor, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to
flatbets only. Take a look:
How
this works is that an SRR7 flatbet shooter will sometimes meet or exceed the twowinninghitsrequired
threshold…but sometimes he won’t. Over
all though, he’ll nonetheless be able to eke out a meager profit since his
playeredge against this bet is still assertive enough to overcome the houseedge. Obviously though, he’ll have to be extremely
careful in protecting his freshly made profit by avoiding any bets that have a lower EV
(expected value) than the ones he is making on the 5 and 9.
As
good as advantageplay flatbetting can be; there is an even better way for the
modestly skilled PrecisionShooter to produce steadier and larger profits from the
exact same skilllevel. Ø Your SRR determines the ability for any given wager to survive over multiple Pointcycle rolls.
Ø
That
survival rate is determined by the everpresent 7.
Ø
As
your SRRrate improves over random, your chances of a given bet surviving for additional
rolls, increases.
Ø
The
higher your SRRrate is, the longer a given bet has a chance to survive…and THRIVE! As
with a randomroller, each SRRrate produces its own rollduration decayrate against
which your validated edge over any given wager has to fight.
Ø
When
we compare your betsurvivalrate against the rollduration decayrate of your current
SevenstoRollsRatio (SRR), we can establish the optimal time at which to regress
your initially large bet into a smaller, lowervalue one.
As
we’ve seen in previous chapters, the perroll decayrate is different for each
SRRrate as well as each type of wager. Here
is what it looks like for the 5 and 9 Placebet pointcycle:
Although
the percentages for each SRR proficiencyrate may appear to be relatively close to each
other, and not significantly better than random; it is in that small degree of
positiveexpectation variance that we find all kinds of reliable profit. This is especially true in the first couple of
pointcycle rolls during any given hand. As
we’ve discussed previously, your perroll chances of rolling a 7 stays exactly the
same. For a randomroller it remains steady
at 16.67% perroll, and for the SRR7 shooter it stays locked in at 14.29% per pointcycle
roll. However, the cumulative
rollending effect of the 7 does not remain stable. As
a result, your chances of having a long non7 hand decays with each and every subsequent
pointcycle roll that you make. Sure, you may
sometimes produce a headlinemaking megaroll, but most times you won’t. Advantageplay
means taking profitable advantage of what your diceinfluencing skills are most capable of
producing. You can try to bet like EVERY
hand will be a megahand, but frankly you are going to be disappointed many more times
than you’ll be elated. The
use of Initial Steep Regressions bring profitreliability much closer to hand…much
more often. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how ISR’s work when we compare flatbetting $25 each on the 5 and 9 versus initially
betting $25 each on the 5 and 9 then steeply regressing it to $5 each on the 5
and 9 at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kellystyle bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression takes place.
Here’s
a summarized comparison between flatbetting the 5 and 9 Placebet versus the use of an
Initial Steep Regression:
I
don’t know about you, but most players want to get the most bang for their buck. Ø A $6 perhand profit for a SRR7 flatbettor is fairly good, but a $31 perhand profit for the same guy using a Steep Regression is a whole lot better.
Ø
Likewise
for the SRR8 shooter; a $15 perhand flatbet profit is admirable, however a $100
perhand profit for the ISRuser from EXACTLY the same skilllevel is significantly
better.
Ø
In
each scenario, both shooters start off with the same $25 bet on the 5 and 9. The big difference comes when the smart player
regresses his initially large wager down to a more reasonable one when it is approaching
negativeexpectation territory…thereby locking up a profit no matter what happens
during the rest of the hand.
Ø
The
SRR8 shooter has to ask himself if a $15 perturnwiththedice profit is enough to
sustain another lap around the table and whether it justifies his time and effort; or
whether his interests are better served by deploying the exact same money in a more
intelligent manner to produce an average of $100 profit every time the dice come around to
him. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø The steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment:
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you’ll be able to take full advantage of your current diceinfluencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit with the 5 and 9 Placebet; the SRR8
diceinfluencer can reasonably keep them up at their initial large size for the first three
pointcycle rolls before needing to steeply regress them.
In the case of a SRR9 shooter using the 5 and 9 Placebet that we’ve
been discussing today, he’ll generally get the benefit of four preregression
hits before optimally reducing his betexposure.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

