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Game Within A Game... Profiting FromYour Come Out Cycle
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DISTRIBUTION OF
ON-AXIS COMBINATIONS |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
Straight-Sixes S-6 set 34-34 on the axles |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
Parallel-Sixes P-6 set 52-52 on the axles |
1 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
All-Sevens A-7 set 16-16 on the axles |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
Even
though each of these sets has four on-axis 7s, its the OTHER outcomes that can
make or break your Come-Out betting strategy.
I
want you to focus in on the on-axis outcome-distributions for the All-Sevens set in
particular.
Ø
The
All-7s doesnt have any on-axis PL-losing Come-Out 2s, 3s, or
12s. Equally though, it doesnt
have any C-O 11 winners either.
Ø
When
you compare the four randomly-expected Craps-loser outcomes (one 2, two 3s and one
12) against the two possible Yo-11 winners that youd see in a randomly-expected
distribution of results; and compare it against the A-7 which doesnt have ANY of
them on-axis (no 11s, but also no 2s, 3s or 12s); then its
clear that the 2:1 trade-off (four craps-losers for every two Yo-11 winners) is well worth
it.
Ø
By
giving up two possible on-axis Yo-11 winners, you also dispose of four on-axis
craps-number losers. To my mind, thats
a fair trade to make when we are talking about even-money payoffs for PL flat-bet winners
and losers.
Ø
To
make that trade-off even more worthwhile, you also get four on-axis 7s which is what
made us look at the A-7 set as a way to increase our C-O 7 win-rate in the first place.
Like
I said though, you have to do your own homework to determine which dice-set works best
with your current skill-set.
One
of our chief objectives in dice-influencing is to keep the dice on-axis. Within that objective, is the additional goal of
having the dice end up on one of the four primary-faces that we first set them on prior to
our toss.
Now
obviously they arent going to end up that way all of the time or even a majority of
the time, but its a good idea to determine just how often they do wind up on their
primary-faces in order to gauge the effectiveness of some of our betting plans.
In
the scenario that we discussed above, you are hoping to throw more Come-Out 7s, and
so we set the dice in the A-7 arrangement. If
the primary-faces show up more than their 4-out-of-36 (1 primary-hit out of every 9
throws) random-expectancy; then setting them this way may be valid. Now clearly this is an extremely primitive way of
looking at your dice-influencing abilities, but it is also a quick and dirty way to do a
speedy practice-session evaluation right before you head out to the real-world tables.
You
could use either the All-Sevens dice arrangement or even the Hardways-set in their
traditional pip setup to do this rapid assessment. The
objective is to do a quick makeshift roll-appraisal without using any roll-tracking
software or any long-form evaluation. You
just want to get a rough idea of how tuned-in your on-axis and primary-face shooting is.
So,
if you are throwing more than 1-in-9 intentional primary-face 7s with the A-7 set or
more than 1-in-9 primary-face Hardways with the HW-set; then it may be indicative that
your right-here, right-now dice-influencing talents are where you want them to be
in order to make some of the bets we are contemplating here today.
Again,
this is a purely unscientific approach, but it will give you a good indication of how
grooved-in your shooting is at this very moment. Besides,
a pre-session warm-up is always a good idea when you are planning to put your money
in harms way.
Let
me give you an example of how you might re-arrange a given dice-set so that it more
closely matches the specific outcomes that you are looking for.
In
Part One of my Craps
Tournaments
The Basics and Beyond series, we looked at how a modestly
skilled player can set and shoot for one particular number.
In that example it was done to win a free entry into the LV Hiltons $100,000
Craps Tournament, but you can also apply this to your current betting regimen and make it
part of your own Game Within A Game Come-Out approach.
Now
obviously you have to determine where your best or most dominant facial-outcomes are
derived from and set the dice that way. For
example, if you throw a lot of primary-face outcomes and youve learned to control
the number of double-pitch outcomes; then arranging the targeted-outcomes (the ones you
want to show up) on those four primary-faces makes a ton of sense. But before you do that, you have to figure out
what amount of influence you are imparting to the dice.
That
is, the more influence you can exert, the more profit-making opportunity you will get in
return. It is also true though, that the less influence you are able to consistently
impart, the less revenue-earning prospects that you will enjoy.
Suppose
you want to extract a little more profit from your Come-Out rolls than the even-money
(1:1) payout that your flat line-bet pays on the 7 or 11.
A good candidate for that would be the Ace-Deuce and Yo combination.
The
Ace-Deuce (3) and Yo (11) each have two outcome-combination ways that they can be made
(1/2, 2/1, 5/6, and 6/5). Traditionally, each
of those two numbers has a 1-in-18 chance of randomly appearing, but our objective in this
exercise is to make them appear significantly more often than that.
We
start with the Straight-Sixes (S-6) dice-set, but we permutate (transpose) it so that the
top-faces are 6/5 and the near-faces are set as 5/6.
This gives you two primary-face outcomes as 11 and the other two
primary-face results as 3 (2/1 and 1/2).
This
can be a very powerful C-O Prop-bet if you make a $1 bet straight-up on both the Ace-Deuce
(3-craps) and the Yo-11.
Now
some gaming authors call these Crazy Crapper bets and say that any
skilled shooter who wagers on them must be completely out of their mind. Lets see if those guys even have a clue
about what they are talking about.
Let
me give you an assumptive example for three different levels of on-axis proficiency:
On-Axis Outcomes: |
50% |
55% |
60% |
b |
|||
which are comprised of |
|||
b |
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Primary Hits: |
15% |
16% |
19% |
Double Pitches: |
10% |
7% |
7% |
Single Pitches In Either Direction |
25% |
32% |
34% |
b |
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Off-Axis Outcomes: |
50% |
45% |
40% |
b |
|||
which are comprised of |
|||
b |
|||
One Die Off Axis: |
30% |
34% |
32% |
Both Dice Off Axis: |
20% |
11% |
8% |
Outcome |
Number of
combinations |
Random
Probability |
S-6 set 50% O/A |
S-6 set 55% O/A |
S-6 set 60% O/A |
2 |
1 |
2.78% |
3.13% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
3 |
2 |
5.56% |
7.50% |
8.00% |
9.50% |
4 |
3 |
8.33% |
6.88% |
8.25% |
8.25% |
5 |
4 |
11.11% |
7.50% |
8.50% |
8.00% |
6 |
5 |
13.89% |
13.75% |
10.50% |
9.50% |
7 |
6 |
16.67% |
22.50% |
21.50% |
21.00% |
8 |
5 |
13.89% |
13.75% |
10.50% |
9.50% |
9 |
4 |
11.11% |
7.50% |
8.50% |
8.00% |
10 |
3 |
8.33% |
6.88% |
8.25% |
8.25% |
11 |
2 |
5.56% |
7.50% |
8.00% |
9.50% |
12 |
1 |
2.78% |
3.13% |
4.00% |
4.25% |
Total |
36 |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Even
a 50% on-axis shooter is able to kick the crap out of the house-edge on both the 3 and the
11.
Type Of Bet |
S-6
Player Advantage 50%
O/A |
S-6
Player Advantage 55%
O/A |
S-6
Player Advantage 60%
O/A |
Edge per roll on
Field bets, triple on 12 |
-5.63% |
10.00% |
16.75% |
Edge per roll on
2 or 12 |
-6.25% |
20.00% |
27.50% |
Edge per roll on
3 or 11 |
12.50% |
20.00% |
42.50% |
It
is what you do with your actual edge, which means the difference between
seized opportunities or squandered advantage and earned profit or unnecessary loss.
Again,
your on-axis efficiency does not even have to come close to the theoretical 100%
efficiency to make a given dice-set work.
Even
mediocre axial control delivers up usably bettable and tangibly profitable results.
Ø
For
the 55% O/A shooter with a 20% edge over both the 3 and 11 as well as the 2 and 12; the
S-6 that is permutated as was outlined above, is a Horn-bettors delight.
Ø
On
the Come-Out you could also make this into a World-bet instead of the Horn since the 7 is
also expected to show up 21.5% of the time. That
little 4.83% difference-from-random for the 7 actually represents an increased
expectancy-rate of 29% (28.9742% to be exact). So
if you are seeing nearly 30% more 7s; youll probably want to do something
about that, wagering-wise.
Ø
But
even if you only want to deploy $2 to cover the Ace-Deuce and the Yo-11; this would make
for a very compelling and profitable wager EVEN FOR A MODESTLY SKILLED 50% on-axis
shooter. A 12.5% player edge is not something
to be sneered at
at least not by anyone who wants to convert their shooting-skill
into ascertainable profit.
Like
I said, some gaming authors call these Crazy Crapper bets. It looks to me like either they havent got a
clue about what they are writing about, or their own shooting and what they are teaching
their students is so flawed and so close to random, that their own shooting
hardly ever puts them in a position of being truly skilled. If that is the case, then I
can certainly understand why they warn their own students and even their own
certified instructors to stay away from bets like this.
If
you dont have a validated skill and you are unable to influence the dice in any
meaningful way, then you too are definitely well advised to stay away from these so-called
bad bets. On the other hand, if you do
have a validated edge, then you might want to consider how crazy you would be if you DIDNT
take proper advantage of your skill.
Obviously
weve only just started to scratch the surface of utilizing the Come-Out sequence as
your own personal profit-center. There is
much, much more to cover.
Coming
up, we are going to explore just how many rolls you should expect to have within the C-O
sequence. Not only will the numbers surprise
you, but well look at several ways to actually extend the average number of
rolls-per-Come-Out that you can weave your dice-influencing magic on.
Further
to that, were going to explore all kinds of betting options that are tied not only
to different dice-sets but also different on-axis efficiencies.
The
objective of this series is to show every shooter, from the barely-beyond-random 45% O/A
novice to the +60% O/A semi-pro, just how to exploit their talents and maximize their
profits during the Come-Out phase of their hands.
I
hope youll join me for that.
Until
then,
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life.
Sincerely,
The
Mad Professor
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