|
Patterns, Prostitutes, Progressions, Pageantry and Profits Welcome to Monte Carlo. Since
1929, the Grand Prix of Monaco is much more of a social
event than just a stop on the Formula-One race circuit. The streets of Monte Carlo are filled with people
who are hell-bent on partying, gambling, people watching, race spectating, seeing the
famous mingle with the infamous, and above all and most
importantly, being seen NOT to take any notice of it! Acting
blasé, aloof and remaining detached from the whole circus that whirls around you is seen
as the chic way to be hip, cool or debonair. If
everyone wasnt trying SO hard to look like it was all normal and de rigeur, it would
be hilarious. As it was, it was just mildly
amusing and perhaps a little bit pathetic. This
tiny, but filthy rich principality combines the fashion-sense of a Paris haute-couture
runway, the highest number of elite socialite icons gathered together in one place, the
majority of Euro-trash poseurs, and the most exclusive collection of exotic and
collectable motor-cars anywhere on this planet. Monaco
brings them all together and combines them into the most exclusively intoxicating human
cocktail. One
sip of that elixir leaves you breathless, disoriented, stunned, amazed and definitely
thirsty for more! Patterns,
Prostitutes, Progressions, Pageantry and Profits are all part of the Grand Prix Circuit
when it is held in a gambling mecca like Monte Carlo.
Long before Nevada legalized gambling, this place was the original Sin
City. The
pageantry of all the circumstances and happenings surrounding the BIG EVENT is almost
non-stop. There are official parades every
day. There are royal yacht and off-shore boat
races for a full week. There were over 800
yachts in the Marina that measured at least one-hundred feet or more in length. There
are countless invitations to non-stop galas, and follow-up invitations to other parties
that are held only after the first extravaganza ends.
Almost every hotel suite is turned into an orgiastic celebration. Its a bit like Mardi Gras in New Orleans
with a slightly older, more monied, but equally immature crowd. An ideal setting for the Mad Professor to indulge
in hedonistic pleasures, if he were to chose so. There
are bejeweled woman in bejeweled gowns, walking dogs with bejeweled leashes, getting into
bejeweled Rolls-Royces to take them to their bejeweled country town-homes on the bejeweled
cliffs that lean over the bejeweled ocean. Before
it was all over, I was ready to puke in bejeweled technicolor! For
only ten days each year, craps is offered as a table game in this country that is
owned and run by the Grimaldi family for the past 700 years. Prince Ranier, together with his daughters
Princess Caroline and Princess Stephanie, and the heir apparent and successor to the
throne, Prince Albert are the royal family and also owners of almost all non-residential
property and major commercial businesses in this country. There
are two casinos to choose from. The
historical and very famous renaissance-designed Casino du Monte Carlo has been the setting
for many movies and books. Built in the early
1700s, this casino is in the towns main square, and has a quiet, cultured,
sophisticated air during early daytime hours that becomes a little more electric, but
still refined as players adhering to its strictly enforced jacket and
tie dress-code, fill its vaulted rooms. The
other casino is owned by Loews Corporation and was built in a 1970s modern
exposed-concrete and garish tri-color design. This
building is located on top of the famous roadway tunnel through which race winner Micheal
Schumachers Ferrari traveled on his way to victory.
This American casino is not nearly as stately or imposing as the
other house, but what it lacks in suave polish, it more than makes up for in excitement
and action. Both
casinos have incredibly high-stakes being wagered by large numbers of players. It seems that most are trying to out-do everyone
else, to see who can have the highest bet on the table at any given time. For our purposes, Ill convert all
denominations to U.S. dollars instead of the French Francs that are actually used there. Its
not uncommon to see eight to ten players at once bet more than $100,000 each on the Pass
Line. Some people bet $10,000 on Any Craps or
C & E on the Come-Out Roll. Multiple bets
of $25,000 on each of the Hardways would sometimes completely cover the entire square for
a particular number if it had been hit at least once during a roll. With only double odds available, some players
would still have more than $500,000 in play at any given time. Gamblers
often look for patterns in outcomes of casino games. Whether you are in Atlantic City,
Reno or Monte Carlo, things such as cycles, results following series, or events presaging
one another, are followed throughout the craps world.
Most people would say that the notion of patterns in casino games is
meaningless. Patterns seen in the past, do
not project into the future because the data, while constrained by the laws of math, are
governed by chance. Its kind of like
the formation of birds in a flock. Why Betting Progressions Work When Experts Say They Can't Craps
players frequently debate progressive versus flat betting.
Should they start low and follow any host of progressions, or begin higher and stay
constant? All
tried and true gambling gurus guarantee that systems to raise or lower bets don't affect
house advantage or edge when odds and returns are uniform from round to round. That part is absolutely true. Casino
balance sheets prove this over extended periods, showing "holds" remarkably
close to the gross amounts wagered, multiplied by the house edge. If during a year,
players "Place" the nine at craps for a total of $100 million, the hold on this
action will be within a whisper of $4 million. That
is in line to the 4% edge on this bet, independent of how the individual wagers are sized,
shaped, or sequenced. Again, this fact is
absolutely true. Players
however know from experience, that betting systems do affect performance. Some
believe the secret of success is "playing with the house's money;" where they
press their bets after rounds in which they win, attempting to escalate their earnings. Others
adhere to the theory that long series of losses are rare; and they raise their bets after
rounds in which they're beaten, attempting to recover when the cold streak ultimately
breaks. A third group takes the slow-but-sure
flat-bet approach. Now,
as radio-personality Paul Harvey would say:
heres the rest of the story. Bets not only have a built-in edge favoring the house, but also an inherent volatility which can go either way.
What
does this mean to you and I?
Say two craps players Place Bet on the nine.
Lets just look at edge alone after 1,000 decisions.
But
volatility, which dominates far beyond 1,000 trials, paints a different picture. For
typical short-term play, think about their status after 1,000 rounds.
You can lose a lot more from volatility, than from
edge. It is that same volatility that
gives Jerry a better chance at making a profit than Tom. When
does edge begin to overshadow volatility?
Raising volatility with progressive bets boosts the importance of fluctuation relative to edge. For
equivalent amounts at risk, lucky players get higher profits while the less fortunate
suffer greater and faster losses. So
if you think that progressions have no effect on the outcome, think again.
While you are doing that, let me mention the worlds oldest profession, and Im not talking about used car sales, although the two professions DO have a lot in common. Where you have men with money, you have prostitutes. Where you have a lot of men with obscene amounts of money, you have the crème de la crème of prostitutes. In Monte Carlo, you have a LOT of money. These ladies are not the $5 for 15 minute crack-hos who frequent Americas inner-city streets; they are the $5,000 to $30,000 per evening entrepreneurs who ply a trade that is as old as cave-men. Regardless of the geography, both sets of women are selling their companionship. Ernest
Hemingway, in a drunken and randy mood at a late 1950s society party once asked a
woman if she would sleep with him for a million dollars.
She smiled and said, Of course I would. Hemingway then asked if she would do the same
thing for one dollar. Aghast, she was
appalled and screamed, What do you think I am
a whore? Old Ernest with his keen sense of timing and wit,
replied, Weve already established WHAT you are, now were just
negotiating a price. The streets, bars, restaurants and casinos are filled with opportunistic women looking to improve their fortunes. Come to think of it, there were a lot of women there who would never consider their gold-digging searches for rich men akin to prostitution, but in one way or another, it seems that there is a cost to everything we do. Hmmm, it gives one pause for thought on a subject that may not be appropriate for this forum. I
was at a table where a very elderly gentleman was being charmed by a young lady who was
about one-quarter of his age. Her hands,
lips, and arms were all over him as the evening progressed.
She kept saying, Im going to marry you
lets get
married tomorrow
Ill make you really, really happy
Ill do anything
you want, just ask. After about the
thirtieth time she said that, be replied, Honey, you can do one thing
for me. Stop stepping on my oxygen-hose,
because then Ill be really, really dead.
I chuckled at the irony, and proceeded to throw a reasonably good hand. There
are patterns that certain women follow as they seek to better their lot in life. I understand the motivation, but the methods are
so transparent, you would think that they would be more subtle. As far as patterns in craps are concerned, they
seem a little easier to understand than women. We
want to be the only ones to detect an anomaly amongst the numbers that are tossed by
random-rollers. Some people chart
dice-results furtively and secretly, so the casinos won't get wise and take
countermeasures. Others do it openly in
big binders. I mention this because the
Casino du Monte Carlo has the highest population of dice-charting players that I have ever
seen. If there wasnt a Formula One
Grand Prix race in town, I would have been positive that there was a Dice Table-Charting
convention in full-swing. Several
dealers told me that the number of charters wasnt that unusual, and that the players
from Germany wouldnt even consider playing the game if it werent for charting. Many
patrons came equipped with small hand-held computers similar to the one that I use to keep
track of certain sweet spots on various craps tables around the world. They use those computers to determine trends at
the tables and to predict upcoming rolls. This
information is used to determine their next type and series of bets. I
sat down with several different groups of the computer-charters during my stay
at LHermitage Hotel there. Language was
not as big of a problem as I initially thought it would be.
My German was non-existent, and their English was flawless. Their computer formulas were complex. They were
convinced that there were discernable patterns, and only sophisticated computer software
could find and exploit them. A couple
of them actually traveled the world and fed the roll results through a Fourier
Analyzer. They said that regularities buried in the results
would yield to their software, and surrender betting procedures that would turn a profit. I asked how the results had been so far. They said that they had only been at it for three months, and that so far the losses had outstripped the profits by a large margin. Their collective family inheritances had shrunk considerably. They were quick to add that, just because there has been no profit, doesnt mean that the program doesnt work. It just means that it hasnt been debugged and refined enough. I did mention Precision-Shooting, which they attacked as meaningless and hopeless. I wondered silently exactly what they thought their method was the Holy Grail? During
race qualifying on Saturday, I sat down with another chap at the Tip Top Pub who said,
The first three days that I used my computer, I was ready to mortgage the farm. I would hang around a table and bet in synch with
the cycles to catch hot trends. Happily, I was in another country from the mortgage office
during that period. The more times that I
used the program, more patterns would emerge, but they were always different. I learned a
lot. So now I wait until someone has a good roll of at least 20 numbers, then I use a
progression on the Big Red to bet against him.
It always works. I
thought to myself that it would always work because a hand always ends with a
7, but the progression might bump into the table limit before that occurs. He said that he hadnt run into that yet,
and didnt expect to. It
seemed that nearly everyone I met in the casinos was using a system with which
to bet. As
the Sunday race approached, the tempo of activities increases even more. There were endless parties that only started to
break up at mid-morning, and topless sun-bathing galore.
There were processions of countless cover-girl type models of every
nationality, and cavalcades of the rarest vehicles Ive ever seen being driven with
total abandon and wanton disrespect on Avenue Princess Grace. There were rock stars, opera divas, movie actors
and other famous faces, and we were all holding free-flowing glasses of vintage wines that
each cost the equivalent to a weeks wages in America.
The free lavish parties seemed like an excuse to show off ones wealth. The entire town was decked-out as an extravagant
smorgasbord of conspicuous consumption. We
were invited to all the parties that corporate sponsors like Marlboro,
Bridgestone/Firestone, Fosters Beer, HSBC-Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation,
Gouloises cigarettes, Cano, Bennetton and Shell-Helix had.
The most memorable one was held by TAG-Hauer where they gave all invitees a
specially designed for the event, 18-carat gold race-watch in a commemorative engraved
onyx display case. All
of the sponsorship pre-race celebrations were filled with brand-specific souvenirs. They provided enough loot to fill four additional
large suitcases for my trip home. Gee, I hope
that my friends dont resent that their T-shirts, sweatshirts, hats, sunglasses,
socks, umbrellas, beer mugs, fanny packs, lighters, cigars, ashtrays, post-it notes, phone
cards, towels, race programs, CDs, seat cushions, bath robes, leather business
folders, sun visors, pen & pencil sets, books, wine decanters, and assorted other
gifts have huge logos on them. Ten
of the top twenty-three drivers in this series call Monaco home, including
Canadas Jacques Villenueve and Mercedes-McLarens David Coulthard. Race winner Schumacher has a condo here, where he
just re-signed for three more years, at $38 million per year, to wear the Ferrari uniform. This may sound morally bankrupt, but no matter
where I went, I was pretty sure that I WAS NOT the richest person in the room. Speaking
of profit, it turned out to be a fairly profitable trip.
I played a total of about twenty hours.
In that time, I only got to shoot the dice seventeen times due to the
extremely crowded conditions. The dealers
were very slow, almost laid-back to avoid any semblance of appearing to care, even with
the exorbitant amounts of money in play. They
were genuinely surprised when they got toked, and their attitude improved
considerably. It seems that bets made for
the dealers are very uncommon, although some players do tip at the end of a session. It seems that the poor-service attitude from
nearby France has been franchised and adopted rather successfully. From the piano lounge of the Grand Hotel to the
tiny little coffee-shop overhanging the Beau Rivage cliffs at the oceans edge, service
ranged from great and distinguished to inferior and shabby.
While playing, I tipped at the start of each of my hands, and the reception
from the dealers couldnt have been nicer. After
hitting and pressing their bets for them, all semblance of European staidness dissolved
into genuine Vegas hot-hand enthusiasm. Of those shooting opportunities, my best hand was 63 rolls, and my worst hand contained 12 rolls of the dice. Park Place Entertainment, in a joint effort with Loews Corporation and SBM-Societe Bain du Mers, picked up most of the expenses. Those included: air-fare from Miami to New York to Paris to Nice, France; helicopter transfer from Nice to Monte Carlo; limousine from the heli-port; deluxe suite accommodation at LHermitage Hotel overlooking the Formula One street course near St. Devout Cathedral; plus VIP seating and All-Access Pit Passes for race activities and sponsorship hospitality tents and suites. My own expenses included the unexpected need for a $1,400 Armani tuxedo, a $300 per day cheapest-available canvas-roofed Citroen 2CV Deux-Cheveau (two-cylinder) car rental, and a $1,000 gift to a police officer. My profits AFTER all expenses were approximately $1,200. Considering the effect that all of the Patterns, Prostitutes Progressions, and Pageantry had, its a wonder there is ANY profit left to speak of. Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.
|
|