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If Craps is Your Business, Dont Under-Fund It Most businesses
fail because they are under-funded. Whether they be new entrepreneurial adventures,
or old economy war-horses, lack of capital usually means doom and extinction
if theres not enough cash-flow to fuel growth or fund improvements and
upgrades. A little while
ago we talked about how many bets you can expect out of your bankroll in an article called
Don't Cut Off Your Bankroll's Blood-Flow . If you
havent read it yet, or need a refresher, I would kindly urge you to do so. Youve heard
the old saying that goes, dont show up to a gun fight armed with only a
knife. Well, one of the worst moves
that you can make is playing with too little money, or wagering too high for your
bankroll. If you are not armed with a
big enough war chest, you wont have the where-with-all to deal with the
inevitable unforeseen circumstances that crop up during casino battles. My
home casino has notoriously high table minimums, and that partially explains
why I like the much lower Vegas, Reno and Mississippi limits. On the other hand, I
know that if I do play on a $15, $25 or $100 minimum table, my session bankroll has to
reflect the reality of the moment. If it doesnt, I have no business being in
the casino because an under-funded bankroll means an
overwhelming chance of failure. And nothing spoils your day quite
like losing your bankroll simply because you were under-gunned during the rumble in
the green-felt jungle. The chance of
winning does not depend on how much money you have, but rather, the amount of your
bankroll compared to the size of your bets. That
is what affects the odds of having a profitable session. Here's
an example: Say that Mick, Rick and Dick play craps.
Each guy only
makes $5 Pass Line bets with no odds.
Each one is
hoping for a $50 profit, however their individual bankrolls differ: ·
Mick has $25,
and a 29% chance to hit the mark. ·
Rick has $50,
and a 43% chance to succeed ·
Dick has
$100, and a 57% chance to score The likelihood
of success improves as the size of the bankroll increases. A low bankroll reduces the number of plays before you
either reach your win goal, or lose everything. I want to maximize my
opportunities while minimizing the exposure that my money has to endure. Heres
what happens when these $5 Pass Line bettors want to make either a set-amount of $50 in
profit, or lose it all in trying: ·
With a $25
stake Mick can expect 49 decisions, boom or bust. ·
Ricks
$50 stake anticipates 99 rounds, good or bad. ·
Dick should
go 207 hands on his $100, win or lose.
What happens
when they try to double their starting stake? ·
Mick has a 46
percent chance to earn $25 on his $25 stake. ·
Rick has a 43
percent shot at doubling $50. ·
Dick has a 36
percent probability of netting $100 on his $100 buy-in. ( The relationships between bankroll, bet size, and the odds of
having a successful session is complex. But
one thing remains crystal clear: A limited bankroll
increases your vulnerability. If craps
is your business, dont under-fund it! Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables
and in Life. By: The Mad Professor
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