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Mad Professor Speaks! The Shimmering Casino Lights Don't Shine Because of WINNERS!
I just spent several days in Puerto
Rico playing at El Conquistador, the Hyatt Dorado, the Hilton and the Sands. One evening, my friend's wife Sherri wanted to
join us at the tables. Earlier over dinner,
we had discussed an associate's method of playing a very dangerous progressive bet on Yo
(11) using a count method combined with progressively larger wagers. After copious amounts of Puerto Rican rum combined
with fruit juices as diverse as mango, papaya, guava, and breadfruit, Sherri was bound and
determined that she was going to try her hand at it.
Here's a copy of that method directly
out of my Playbook along with my original comments: 15-count YO Progression Start counting rolls without an 11 showing, when it gets to 15 rolls, bet one unit (.25 or $1) on the YO (11) On each roll without a win, follow the table below:
Does it work?
Yes, but it's not for the faint of
heart or weak of stomach. A friend of mine
swears by this method and says it generates about $35/hour on a $1 table. I grimace every time that I see him play and he
has to put out those large Prop bets, roll after roll after roll. The dealers, box-men and
I just look at each other and shake our heads. He's says that he's never lost, but there
have been many times when the progression got over 80 rolls before YO showed. He normally plays at a $1 minimum prop bet table. The 25 cent games no longer provide enough
"entertainment" for him. Needless
to say, he drinks a bottle of Pepto-Bismal every day, and he's got ulcers the size of the
state of Maryland.
"So is this system just
voodoo-magic hoping against hope or does it really work" she asked.
Although "experts" often
belittle them, these wagers have undeniable appeal. For
some people it provides a thrill not commonly found with Pass Line betting. For others, it a matter of suspending reality
and diving head-first into the gambling waters. Unfortunately,
sometimes a head-first dive into the shallow waters of casino reality can cripple even a
medium or large-sized bankroll very quickly.
The primary argument against it is that
the house has too great an edge. Returns, while seemingly large, are actually small when
compared to the odds against winning, and even worse if you look at tapping out your
bankroll without a win.
The biggest risk is in not realizing
how risky these type of bets actually are, and in treating long-shots as a
"bread-and-butter" play, instead of as an occasional small side-bet.
Here in Puerto Rico, I was even more
concerned that I would have to ride out the rest of our Caribbean trip with this women
even if she lost. Knowing Sherri's
personality, the waters would be very rough for all of us no matter how calm the actual
sea was.
I thought about it:
This method qualified for, and was
guilty of all of those things!
How right was my friends
"tainted" logic that an 11 would eventually HAVE to roll?
Here's the numbers:
The single-roll probability of the YO
showing up is 5.56%.
I knew that my friend had factored in
at least 85 rolls and that meant a bankroll of at least $1,618. He usually buys in for $2,000 and he had
previously swore under threat of having to listen to my grandmother's Boxcar Willie
Greatest Hits CD that he had never gotten past 85 rolls without the YO appearing and
saving his ass. I told Sherri that
information, and suitably armed with money from her tele-communications guru-husband, and
sufficiently anesthetized with enough booze to float his 124' motor-yacht, our group
ventured off to the craps table like gladiators into battle. I followed, and secretly prayed that the
casino-lions-of chance had just finished a meal at least as large as the one that we had
just devoured.
Now we had to see this method at play
in a semi-foreign territory, the "Coliseum of Chance". Okay here are the
results:
Over two days of play Sherri
spent about 8 hours at the table only using this method.
Okay the "15-Count YO
Progression Method" worked this time. Did
Sherri dodge a bullet or is there a certain brutal elegance to this method. The following day I called my friend back in
Boston to tell him that we had used his method successfully without blood-shed or loss of
friendship. He said "Hmm, maybe I'm not
so crazy after all. Maybe it's you Mad
Professor that's crazy for not believing in me."
However, he added that his ulcers still look like Sigourney Weaver just
blasted and obliterated an extraterrestrial alien egg-hatchery, but that he plans to
continue with his method. Funny thing, Sherri
has been saying the same thing over and over, like a mantra, as we make our way to
Dominican Republic.
This woman now thinks that she has seen
and read the Holy Grail of gaming.
I'm still trying to tell her that she is wrong, but I
have a feeling that sooner or later the dice will give Sherri the same message, only
they'll be a lot more convincing.
Oh yes, one more thing. References to
extraterrestrial aliens are all allegorical. The research did not require that a single
flesh-eating cyber-morph be brought into a casino and forced to perform unnatural acts,
nor were they subjected to unwarranted risks in the name of scientific furtherment, or
made to endure the company of stubborn "fail-proof-system" people. Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in
Life. The Mad Professor
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