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Precision Shooter's Newsletter
Volume VI :
Date July 2006
In This Edition:
A Word From Soft Touch
Ask The Queen Bee...
Bone Tracker Revealed Part V
Some Assembly Required...
A Labor of Love...
Newsletter Archive Links
Soft Touch Say's
It’s Time For A Dice Party! And, You’re All Invited!
Mark your calendar folks and plan to
be in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 30th,
Have you “lost that lovin’ feeling” for
your craps game? Do you feel it is time to get back to craps basics? If
you are nodding your head with a big YES, then
it is time to join our
First Free Dice Playshop.*
I have teamed up with the Dice Coach,
Michael Vernon and other active members of our community to provide you
all with a priceless day of education, sharing of ideas and most
We’re going to add to your gaming
toolbox. Plans are in the
works to focus on your mechanics, money management and getting you in the
right frame of mind.
Come join the fun. Meet new players,
rekindle old friendships and finally connect with the face to the name of
that person you’ve been communicating with on the boards.
This will absolutely be an event you
won’t want to miss! It is time to elevate your game.
Watch for more specific details in
upcoming weeks. Information will be posted on the forum and in subsequent
See you at my
*(This will be a previous student and
members only R.S.V.P.
Reserve your place by September 10th Call toll free
A pair of precision dice = $5.00
Flight to Las Vegas = $500.00
First DICE PLAYSHOP…… PRICELESS!
Some members of our dice community were
surprised to hear that….
I was a table tub virgin. (Quickly
say this three word tongue twister three times.)
In the past, I had heard and read from
quite a few members claiming to have some positive experiences dice
tossing on the rarely sighted tub tables. Always having the desire to
work on something new, my dice friends and I trekked on over to see what
the excitement was all about at the Casino Royale found on the strip in
Does size matter for your first time?
Well, let me just say that as long as a player knows ahead of time how to
accommodate for the smaller playing surface, having to position yourself
in a chair, tossing frosty red dice with sharp edges and exchanging chips
with only one dealer, any savvy player should be able to adjust quickly to
this money making opportunity.
While I will keep the intimate details of
a delightful and profitable experience to myself, let me just write that
for my first time, the table was gentle and as far as my bankroll is
concerned, the size of this table did not matter when it came to the
physical aspect of my toss. This was a case of quality rather than
quantity. And, I loved it.
By the way, for those of you who were a
bit turned off by the nasty and old table surface that hadn’t been changed
since WW II, know that the surface is now brand new and it’s worth playing
in that little “sand box” once again. I recommend you experience this at
A more in depth look at how to approach
these little “gems” can be found in one of Mad Pro’s series on a mini tour
of tub tables found in his area of the web site:
It is an interesting read.
While you’re at it, if you’ve been
following Mad Professor’s Regression Avoids Depression series, he’s added
his next installment found here:
In addition, be sure to read Maddog’s next
installment he has provided you on making his BoneTracker software
useable. There’s no excuse now for not taking your game to the next level.
That’s it for now. Y’all be sure to mark
your calendar for this September’s party.
PS If you have any suggestions for the
new dicesetter.com website or newsletter please send them to
and I'll have a look and see how we can incorporate them into our future plans.
From the Editor
Couples counseling is a bit of a stretch for me, but I
have a tid-bit for the women readers with a man in their life.
Give a man a fish and you feed him for the day. Teach a
man how to fish and you can get rid of him on weekends.
Ask The Queen Bee...
Dear Queen Bee:
I started out practicing with casino dice that I
collected from my trips. I read on your message board that home practice
needs to be as close to casino conditions as possible. I found some
un-canceled dice at a local novelty store. I have two questions. How long
is a pair of dice good to use in practice.. about how many tosses? Second,
I am not sure the dice I have are regulation casino dice. Where can I get
regulation dice for practice? Anthony M. Austin, TX
A player should change their dice about every 500
to 600 throws. After that many throws, the integrity of the dice begins
to break down. Using experienced dice after that many throws should be
reserved for practicing quick setting while away from your formal
practice environment. By all means, serious players should use precision
I know that the Dice Coach sells precision dice that are the same
quality, size and shape used in the casino. These dice are sold to the
casinos and are balanced, weighted and stamped with serial numbers. If
you buy dice, make sure they are stamped with the same serial numbers.
Here's his site information if you find yourself in need of a great pair
If you are a serious gamer, tracking your results for tangible information,
definitely use precision dice or your results may come close to being
meaningless. There really is a science to the way these precision dice
A player has to figure that
a casino craps table changes their dice every shift. How many
decisions per hour do they determine per an eight hour shift? They
check their new dice before introducing them to their patrons and you
should have the same precision dice as you would in a live game.
for your question,
What's all the Buzz about? Do you have
a question for The Queen Bee?
Send your question to
See your question published in the next
edition of Dice Setters Precision Shooter's Newsletter.
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BoneTracker Revealed – Part V
By Maddog -- Copyright ©
I just couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Certainly I was happy about it
because it represented a significant opportunity. The funny thing was that I
always knew they were occurring, but if I hadn’t seen it here, displayed in
comparison with the others, I would never have thought it was that dramatic.
Well, you know that ole’ saw; “A picture is worth a thousand words”. Certainly
true words when applied to this chart I was reviewing. And not just this chart
from the current tracking set. The same happy little spike appeared over the
number 10 on the previous couple of tracking sheets, although not as pronounced
as I was seeing on this months display. I’m usually not one to bet on the
corners, but the bars just couldn’t be ignored. I was going to have to prepare
for this option and if I started seeing the 10 show, I needed to be comfortable
with venturing out on the “Big End”…
Welcome to part 5 in our 5 part series of BoneTracker Revealed. In previous
installments we covered the Roll Data, Toss Stats and Transpose tabs. Today’s
tour, we will finish off our overview of BoneTracker™ with a quick look at the
Charts, Expected Value and Worksheet tabs.
The Charts tab is the “at-a-glance” review of the current tracking results. On
the Charts tab we take the Toss Analysis data from the Toss Stats tab and
convert it into a graphical format for a little easier consumption. In version
4.5.1 of BT we have 5 Charts and these are;
“Number Frequency vs Random”
– For each possible number (2-12), the number (count) of rolls that are expected
according to Random Distribution is compared to the number (count) of rolls that
were actually rolled. This side-by-side comparison shows us where our influence
is compared to expected random rolls.
Frequency Percent Difference from Random Distribution” – This graph is one of
my favorites. It displays the difference between the actual roll counts
compared to the expected random roll counts as a percentage. Just a quick
glance at this graph is enough to show you which numbers are rolling. When
compared over time this graph can be used to identify and verify signature
“Box Numbers to Sevens
Ratios” – Unfortunately this chart is mislabeled. It is not a box to sevens
ratio, but instead a Box to Rolls Ratio. This chart is similar to the Number
Frequency graph as it compares the actual roll counts to the expected random
frequency, but this graph groups the counts of numbers according to common
betting schemes. Across, Inside, Outside, Horn, World, and Field. When viewed
together the Box to Roll Ratio and the Sevens to Rolls Ratio combine to provide
an interesting picture of expected roll hits and durations
“HA/PA for Pass
Line” – House Advantage (HA) or Player Advantage (PA) for the Pass Line bet is
displayed in this graph. A negative number represents an advantage to the
House and a positive number is an advantage to the player. The graph displays
information for; Actual Tossed Results, the three seven avoidance sets from
the Transpose tab (3V, 2V, and X6), and the three user defined permutations
from the Transpose tab. In addition, for each grouping the results for Pass
Line only, with 1x odds, 2x odds, 5x odds, and 10x odds is provided.
An important note regarding this graph: Since we are
generally tossing a single set and primarily we are tossing a Point Cycle set,
the numbers here will tend represent Edge of the Point Cycle – setting and
repeating a box number. Since we are not setting for the Come-Out, the come-out
naturals and losers are somewhat missing from the results. Similarly if we are
tracking a Come-Out Set, then the opposite is true and we are mostly tracking
come-out action and the Point-Cycle results are missing or diluted. Keep this
in mind and beware when looking at these Edge figures.
“HA/PA for Various
Right-Side Bets” – This chart is very similar to the one for Pass Line bets, but
focuses on various right side bet results. Again,
the note about
the types of tosses we are tracking applies and you need to be aware that the
normal come-out/point cycle flow is diluted with our practice tracking. The
good news is that most of these bets are either independent of the Come-Out or
occur after the Come-Out and so are much less affected by this side-effect.
Although all the data which is displayed in these series of charts is available
in numeric format on the Toss Stats tab, seeing the information in a graphical
comparison format can often provide insights that the raw numbers don’t convey.
After a practice session the Charts tab is often the first place I look to see
if my expected Signature Numbers are holding. Looking at the charts is a way to
get a feel for what the overall data looks like from the charts tab, then move
on to the Toss Stats tab to get into the details of why a certain pattern is
Expected Value (EV) Tab
The EV Tab displays the expected value of many common Craps bets, based on the
actual roll results (and the Transposed roll results as converted from the
actual roll results). The displays of the HA/PA charts on the Charts Tab
retrieve their information from this tab, so again review the note about the
effect of our “peculiar” toss tracking and the impact that has on the results
There are some hidden worksheets that are performing the calculation for this
display. The worksheets are hidden merely to get them out of the way. You may
also notice two tabs, one labeled “EV_Toss” and one labeled “Proof”. These tabs
also contain the calculation used to generate the figures and can be reviewed to
check the math behind the Edge calculations. For the Edge formulas we use the
standard calculation methods but replace the expected random probability values
(i.e. a five has a probability of rolling 4 in 36, an eight has a probability of
rolling 5 in 36, etc.) with the probability values from the actual tracking
This is a worksheet that you can print out and take to your toss station. Use it
to write down your toss results and then later, re-key them into the “Roll Data”
Tab. This page is optional and is included only as an aid. As an example, I
usually print up about 10 copies of this page at a time. I place the sheets in
a 3 ring binder which I keep at my toss station. While tossing, I write down
the results onto a page. Once a page is completed, I then take it and re-key
the numbers into the “Roll Data” Tab for analysis.
(Note: I no longer print up the worksheets. Instead I take a laptop to my toss
station and use the Data Entry Assistant to enter the roll results directly as I
am tossing. Saves a lot of time.)
This completes our tour of BoneTracker. From its humble beginning as a simple
spreadsheet to track my toss results, it has grown over the years to a nice
little gadget in the DI toolbox. In the next iteration I’ll be adding a few
more bells and whistles to try and squeeze out a little more DI information and
perhaps make it a bit easier to use in the processes.
Tracking the Bones is an important part of the DI processes. It provides a
validation of our ability to influence the dice. We do it to follow our
progress and measure improvements. And tracking helps find our Pattern of
Influence in order to focus betting strategies where they can provide the
BoneTracker is an efficient tool for performing our tracking, but it is only a
tool. It can’t toss the dice for you and it can’t make the money for you. Only
you can add those ingredients. But with practice, perseverance and patience you
too will find a path to the DI way.
Until next time, keep your toss straight and your rack full.
Some Assembly Required
Copyright © Michael
What I am about to share is not so much a secret as overlooked and forgotten
elements of gaming strategy. It seems that there is not enough coverage written
on this ignored subject. It reminds me of the enclosed directions when, “some
assembly is required”. I tear into the box, barely glancing at the neatly folded
directions written in five different languages, and proceed with the assembly on
my own. After a while, I discover a problem. I have not put things together in
the proper order. Because I have incorrectly snapped a section together, I am
unable to fit the next piece without breaking apart what I have already
accomplished. So it is with craps and disciplined play. Once discipline is
abandoned, you do not get a second chance to reassemble a mistake.
Discipline: No one can make you play with discipline. Discipline
is self-imposed action. It sounds simple enough, and like the paper directions,
discipline is often quick to be discarded. The casino manipulates the player
subtly and blatantly. Self-control is essential for long term success. What do
you have control over? You have control of when you play, how long you play, how
much money you put on the line and the environment you will accept for playing.
Engage discipline and you have control.
When you play: You should be at your best, sharp as a tack. Be well
rested and mentally prepared to focus on the game. Drinking is discouraged. Play
your game right, and you will win an adequate amount for drinks, dinner and a
show later. Emotionally, you must be centered, not unbalanced by “shoulds” and
peer pressure. Do not play if you are angry or otherwise upset. Pick times to
play when you will not have an end time constraint. To play a game just before a
flight or another appointment would not be my choice. I prefer at least a
four-hour window. Play when you feel free to play. One never knows how long a
session may take. It can be brief or you may be in for the long haul. The idea
of a deadline restriction can cause you undue anxiety to play in a game that you
were better off avoiding.
How long you play: How long you play depends on several factors, stamina,
and bankroll and of course the direction of the game. I have won 43 units in
twelve minutes and have played four hours just getting back to even. The longer
you play the more exposure you have to the negative odds. There are numerous
distractions in a casino, all tugging on your energy. I find that after a couple
of hours standing at the table my focus and awareness begins to wane. Take a
break with the first sign of fatigue. The tendency for the weekend warrior is to
get in as much action as possible. Big mistake! It is better to be patient and
have a plan for your sessions with designed breaks. It is better to be selective
and cautious in the front end than wishing you had employed more discipline on
the flight home. Remember, being in control, is how to eliminate the losing
Once in a game, play alert to the direction of the game. Just because you have
been in the game for only a short time does not mean you have to stand there and
slug it out in a losing cause. There has to be some positive energy or financial
encouragement to hang with a game. If not, have the discipline to walk. Have the
courage to leave a game. Do not allow desperation to affect your desire to play.
How much you play: How much you play is a factor of your total bankroll
and your comfort with the table minimum. Never engage games under bankrolled.
Never play over your head financially. Most players enter a craps game under
bankrolled. Simply stated, they do not buy in with enough capital to support the
kind of action that they intend to play. Playing craps requires a lot more
capital than other games. Few players recognize this fact. I teach my students
to think of each bet as a separate investment. As such, each bet has its own
appropriate bankroll. There are numerous opinions on this one. I suggest ten
times the unit bet for each bet wagered. A $5 pass line player with double odds,
that also likes to place bet the six and eight for $12 each, would buy in for
$390. This provides the player with two critical aspects of the game:
Having enough capital invested to engage the game for
a reasonable chance at
Providing a palatable built in “stop loss”. Limiting
loss protects you from ruin. The
over all bankroll
is protected as well as the emotional bankroll.
Reaching into the pocket to pull out more cash is chasing a loss. It is
metaphysically and psychologically weak to buy in under bankrolled and then pull
money from your pocket. It is smarter to put it all out, fully capitalized.
Never forget you have the discipline to walk away at any time. Walking takes
discipline and it is the player’s best defense. Never be afraid to pick up your
chips and walk. You do not have to stand there and play it all away. You
are in control and you can quit anytime.
Where you play: You should play at a casino you enjoy and one where you
feel comfortable playing. It is important to perceive a sense of honoring and
appreciation not only from the establishment but from the employees as well.
Chasing around for a game burns energy. I say, “stay where you like play”. If
your action is rated, then you are there for the discounts and comps. I like to
stay at Treasure Island. If there is nothing going on at T.I., it is a short
walk to other favorites, the Mirage and the Venetian. Without too much effort, I
am minutes away from world class casinos. Where you play does make a difference,
as gaming should be a pleasurable experience.
The hardest part of discipline is to play disciplined. Duh! The reason it is
difficult has to do with being able to come to an agreement with yourself. The
ego, intellect and emotion tend to over-ride self-discipline. Without
self-discipline, it is easy to talk oneself out of what is best and what is
true. You find yourself in a profitable game and then someone has a big hand.
You have made a handsome profit. You know from experience that a big hand is the
exception not the rule. The smart money is coloring up. If you have the
discipline to color up you will have a tidy profit. However, your mischievous
little voice says, “if you play longer you could have even more”. The agreement
with yourself to quit the game takes discipline. It takes accepting what you
have won and being comfortable with the knowing that there is always another
game. It is an affirmation of abundance. There are plenty of games. You can only
color up winners when you are winning. Walking away is your best gaming asset.
You exercise your freedom of choice and discipline empowers you. Without
discipline, you empower the casino. What’s it going to be mate?
Some assembly is required. Follow the steps of discipline in your game and
eliminate needless mistakes. When it comes to gaming, the odds against the
player do not allow for the luxury of playing with a mistake. Having the
discipline to be honest with yourself will always separate you, the winner, from
to the top>
In the June edition, books
by Richard Armstrong were suggested reading. The web address posted
was in error. The correct address is
Doesn't Shoot Craps... a divine comedy by Richard Armstrong.
A suspenseful and thought-provoking novel for
America's growing love affair with Las Vegas and gambling... funny too!
Meet Danny Pellegrino, a junk-mail con man who
has made a good living selling fake gambling systems to gullible people.
But when he discovers that his latest "scam" actually works, he suddenly
becomes the world's most wanted man as he races to build a fortune before
someone discovers his secret.
FREE - FREE "Get Paid to Gamble"
You can have this e-book from Richard with his compliments. That's right,
download "Get Paid to Gamble" for FREE to DiceSetter.com subscribers.
Click the link.
of love and a dedication to the
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