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It's More Fun When You Win!

 

 

Volume 12 : Issue 1

January  2012

In This Edition:

 

A Word From Soft Touch

Dear Ed

Ask Mousse?

Who Ya Gonna Call?

Today's Wisdom...

A Labor of Love...

Newsletter Archive Links

 

 

Greetings Dice Setters!

It is my hope that a happy New Year is blessing your game.

Yes, Dice Setter Newsletter is alive and well. We only publish when we have something to share. Last year was a busy time for our contributors. I think you will enjoy this issue. I know I did and had to chuckle at times.

Let me plug my collaboration with the Dice Coach and the Professor. Our one day craps program a day with the Dice Busters, is June 23rd. The program sold out last year with twelve students. Naturally I hit a monster hand during our live casino session. All the students seemed to have enjoyed the program and of course a successful craps game. Think about joining us this year.  Dice Busters Click on the link for the details and to read the roll results of our three hour session.

Ed has a short note before our article for this issue from the Professor and his amazing dog Mousse.

Keep the dice hot!

Soft Touch 

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Dear Readers,

 

I received a few letters asking about an on-line video regarding biased dice. After viewing the videos, I asked our team of four experts to provide their opinion. Three of the experts asked hold academic degrees in science and or math. Because we feel that this issue of bias dice has been thoroughly represented by DiceSetter.com our position remains the same as previously published. We will not make further comment other than to say upon reviewing the videos, all of our experts agreed, independently, that the presenter of video did not adhere to the Scientific Method for the experiment. Numerous flaws were noted and the team unanimously agreed that there could be no useable data in support of the hypothesis for bias dice.  It is not the intention of Dice Setter to refute the video further. It will not be promoted for reasons explained here.

 

If you feel that you are not being dealt a fair game, the choice to play or not play is yours. Casinos in Nevada are regulated.

 

Ed Jones

 


From Playing 4 Keeps a Newsletter for Winners, the Professor and his dog Mousse share comments in this contribution. 

Ask My Dog Mousse Part 1 of 3 

Mousse,

What do you think about betting $32 across and working the come out roll?

Thanks,

Bubba 

Hey Bubba, 

I think that I do not like the concept. What do you think about losing $32 on a come out seven? Let’s say you do take a hit on the come out and now down $32 you set up for another for another play with $32 and risk facing another seven on the come out. You do not explain how you intend to play the $32 across which is big piece of the puzzle. It makes difficult for me to give you a complete answer here. Man’s got’ a have a plan. 

Anyway, if you survive the second come out you have to win a minimum of four place bets and two of them have to be either 4 or 10 just to be back to even. I am not saying that it can’t be done Bubba. I am saying I do not like the concept of having to risk $64 just to be even? 

You may be thinking, and you should be if you are not, that every time the dice are rolled the odds are exactly the same for the appearance of a seven. Here’s the math. 45% of Pass Line wins are going to come on naturals 7 or 11; 75% of those naturals are going to come on Winner Sevens; and, Winner Sevens are going to constitute just over 33% of all wins. You’d be better off betting your $32 on the Pass Line. Only pays even money, but a hell of a lot less vig, meaning less exposure. Plus, after three consecutive wins on a come out, it is possible for you to have won $224 in profit compare that to $27 from a 4/10 place bet with three wins. 

Hope this helps, 

Mousse 

PS I had to pull the math stuff from the Professor’s playbook. I am, after all, just a dog.

Playbook

 

Ask My Dog Mousse Part 2  

Bubba’s reply to Mousse’s answer. 

Hey Mousse,  

I appreciate your input.  For a dog I think you are pretty smart!  

I will play $32 across on every come out roll on each shooter. But, will only play the Come Out once on each shooter if he/she nails me with a 7. I won't let someone who rolls 2 or 3 sevens in a row beat me.  As you know sometimes a shooter will do that. If I get beat on the Come Out with a 7, I’ll then let the shooter set a point before I get back out. When I do I’ll just play 3 numbers, never playing the point number. If the number set is an inside number I play the inside but not the point. If the number is a outside number say a 4 or 10, I play the outside numbers, If it’s a 4, I place the 5,9,10 hoping to get two or 3 hits, to get most of my $32 I lost when the shooter rolled a 7. 

My theory on dice is for every number thrown puts the shooter closer to a 7 being rolled. So, if I am trying to get just two hits, I had better be out their trying to get a hit on the first number that hits the table.   

Here are examples of a dice rolls I charted in K.C. last Wednesday. 

Rolls

Out Come

Net Result

6, 8, 4, 7 out

Won $14

$14

4, 11, 10, 7 out

Won $18

$32

10, 10, 11, 10, 8, 8, 6, 8, 4, 7

Won $18

$50

10, 6, 11, 8, 7 out

Lost <$11>

$39

8, 8, 11, 9, 9, 6, 8, 4, 8, 10, 9, 8, 4, 8, 7 out

Won $14

$53

 

Play by Play Commentary by Bubba

6-8-4-7 -  Lousy roll, but I won $7 on the 6 rolled and $7 on the 6 rolled.

 

4-11-10-7 - Another bad roll, but won 9 and 9 then came down.

 

10-10-11-10-4-10-8-8-6-8-4-7 - A nice roll won 9 on 1st 10, then placed the 4,5,9, and won 9 more on the 4.

 

10-6-11-8-7 - This roll I won 9 on the 10 placed the 4,5,9, I didn't get the 2nd hit. Won $9 lost $20. $11 net loss on the play.

 

8-8-11-9-9-6-8-4-8-10-9-8-4-8-7 - Won 7 on 1st 8 won 7 on the 9. So got back $14 of the $11 I lost on previous shooter.  This roll was my roll.  I figure I am the best shooter at table, so I am trying to get the confidence to play my self for more then just two hits.

 

                                                          

I am trying to understand the math you gave me. 45% of Pass Line wins will be a 7. So 55% won't.   Is that correct?  So, then I have almost a 50% chance of the shooter rolling another number not the 7 for a win for me?   Am I correct on that?  you said 75% of those naturals are going to come on winner sevens.  I don't understand that. Why not 100% instead of 75% You said winner 7's are going to constitute just over 33% of all wins.  If that's the case then 67% of all wins would  be someone making their point.  (Wouldn't this be good for me who is going to get just two hits?) Bubba 

Bubba’s email is answered by the Professor. Mousse was out chasing rabbits. 

Hello Bubba, 

Mousse says thanks you for the compliment, but this second email is a little over his head so I am stepping in. After all he is just a rabbit chasing dog. 

Most place betters do have some method to their play and most do not have a winning strategy. Place betting is an aggressive play because of the true odds. When you factor in the vig, the bets really become a question of why take the risk for the return. 

Okay, I do not like place betting because it is an up hill battle as Mousse described. However, you explain a play that can make some cents. (sic) 

What separates my play from the heard is that I recognized the metaphysical side to the game. Want a quick lesson, study the games Tim Tebow has played since becoming the starting quarterback. All the games win or lose, exhibit the metaphysical side of what I teach for the casino games. This is the reason the “God factor" has 43% of football fans thinking somehow divine intervention is on Tebow’s team. If they can’t see it, they can’t explain it, so it must be something bigger than life. In short it sums up my teaching too, the unseen dimension. Side tracking here Bubba, but Tebow is the hottest sports topic and best real time example I can share with you. I will be working up an article to address this phenomena and how it relates to gaming in one of my P4K newsletters to come.

 Some things for you to think about.

  1. Observe your games before entering.
  2. If you observe an absence of 7 and 11 on the come out that is a good sign.
  3. If you see players holding the dice longer than random, that is a good sign. Your examples below are mostly not playable. Glad you profited. Not a criticism, just my opinion after 20 years at the table.
  4. You have to recognize those times when your investments have a better chance of winning based on the energy of the game. A shooter’s consistent results are necessary for a playable game.
  5. In other words, you have to see favorable conditions in order to take the bigger risk.
  6. Note, as Mousse was saying, you are risking $32 to win $14 to $18. That is more than a one for two payout on average. True odds for the 6/8 are 6:5 for example. Win 6 bet 5. Factor in the odds and vig and your play appears more like a lay bet without the advantage. Would you walk blindfolded across Las Vegas Boulevard on a one for two bet on a Saturday night?
  7. Nope. If you really had to take a bet like that you would wait for the time with the least amount of traffic. You would do your research and cross the street during favorable conditions.
  8. Craps is a game and every player is entitled to play their way, win or lose. I play for the thrill and fun. When I play right I get to win money on top of the thrill and fun.

My suggestion for disciplined play:

  1. Follow my suggestion of playing across when conditions are favorable.
  2. When 7 and 11 are out of probability and not showing on the come out roll, having your $32 working would be okay. You are the only craps player in my 17 years of teaching that has recognized what you said below, “one more roll closer to the seven out”. Very profound.
  3. Okay, set the bet up, take your two wins and come down. Note that I said come down not call off. The box man does not like money left on the layout after the 7-out.
  4. Down side is you are working the boys overtime with your set ups and take downs. At some point in the game you have to take care of the boys (toke) and that chews at your meager profits and another reason I do not care for this play. You can probably profit as much or more using one of the Don’t Pass plays in my playbook. I think I have one of them on the web site now as play of the month. Risk less to win more – that’s my motto.
  5. Continuing to support your play, I suggest adding a progression so as to win more money as you are adding chips to the rack.
  6. This is difficult with six bets. You have to be able to press all the bets at the same time. At least my opinion. Others may say press trending numbers or build it up as you win. I like a stayed method with my style of play, not hither-tether.
  7. Figure if you are winning you could be on a table that is performing out of probability. If it were me, I’d want to take advantage of it. Leveraging up six bets is laboriously slow and while you are attempting the betting progression, you are likely to miss the opportunity. Playing 4 Keeps never misses an opportunity.*
  8. Temptation to change your system during a long roll is always a problem. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. How do you keep yourself out of a hand that rolls 20+ rolls? How do you decide to keep to your two wins and let the monster off the hook?
  9. In conclusion Bubba, if you can hold to your two wins and take down, minimize your losses, and accept the grind play as is, you should have mostly successful sessions.

*Not to “plaid suit sell" you on my playbook, but you can purchase it at the Playing 4 Keeps web site…. for less than two set ups. 

Regarding the math, in short, it has to do with all possible results for each number and how they compare against the loser seven. 

What I am saying below needs to be read carefully. I am talking about wins on the pass line. It is not saying you will win 45% of the time from naturals.  55% of the remaining wins have to come from points. However, as you will see, once a player is on a point, he has only a 40% chance of completing the play. Meaning that the point loses 60% of the time. The 55% from the win column can only come from 40% of the times when an established point wins .  

This from my Do’s and Don’ts of Dice Playbook. 

Playing 4 Keeps By The Numbers

Copyright © 2010 by Michael Vernon

www.playing4keeps.com 

You do not need to understand how the odds are computed to be Playing 4 Keeps. However, the more that you know, the more you will appreciate what you have your hands on. Let us start with the old cumulative probabilities that most every beginning craps book offers. See the table below for the probabilities of each number and each number expressed in odds. 

 

Number

Expectation Out of 36

Chance of

Rolling

Expressed

as Odds

Number of

Wins    To    Losses

2

1

1/36

35:1

0

1

3

2

2/36

17:1

0

2

4

3

3/36

11:1

1

2

5

4

4/36

8:1

1.6

2.4

6

5

5/36

6.2:1

2.27273

2.72727

7

6

6/36

5:1

6

0

8

5

5/36

6.2:1

2.27273

2.72727

9

4

4/36

8:1

1.6

2.4

10

3

3/36

11:1

1

2

11

2

2/36

17:1

2

0

12

1

1/36

35:1

0

1

Total

36

36/36

--

17.74546

18.25454

 

Total Ways to Win in 36 Rolls = 17.74546

 

Wins Due to Naturals 7/11 =  8  (22.22222% of total occurrences and 45.08% of total wins) 

 

Natural 7 =  6  (16.66667% of total occurrences and 33.81% of total wins) 

 

Natural 11 =  2  (5.555556% of total occurrences and 11.27% of total wins) 

 

Wins Due to Shooter

Making the Point  =  9.74546  (26.5959 % of total occurrences and 54.92% of total wins) 

 

Total Ways to Lose

Out of 36 Rolls   = 18.25454 

 

Losses Due to Crap Rolls = 4 

 

Losses due to the 7-Out = 14.25454 

 

Player’s Negative Expectancy

Without Odds                                     (18.25454 – 17.74546)

                                                                             36                  = 1.41%

 

Do you recognized this number? It’s the house edge on the Pass Line and Come Bet. 

If the Pass Line player and the Come Bet player wager the same amount of money, over time both bettors stand to lose 1.41% of their flat bet on each wager that they make. This is the casino’s mathematical advantage, and holds true whether making a Pass Line bet or a Come Bet. However, the probability of catching a long winning streak is much greater on the Pass Line then on the Come Bet. 

45% of Pass Line wins are going to come on naturals 7 or 11; 75% of those naturals are going to come on Winner Sevens; and, Winner Sevens are going to constitute just over 33% of all wins. That's the good news.  The bad news is that when a point is established, we are going to lose almost 60% of the time (14.25454/24), and it is impossible that we will score more than one winner seven on any Come Bet. 

Conventional Pass Line systems miss this fact and rely excessively upon the shooter rolling a lot of repeating numbers. Those systems fail to get much out of the 45% Pass Line wins that come on naturals.  P4K strategy, in contrast, gets the most out of all Pass Line wins. 

Because the hand ends when 7 rolls for a Come Bet not established, sequences of consecutive Pass Line wins tend to be longer than consecutive Come Bet sequences. This explains why the Pass Line performs better with the P4K strategy than does the Come Bet. On the Come Out roll, the chances are slightly greater than 22% that a natural winner will roll. If the natural rolls, we are on our way with the “Stack’em Don’t Rack’em” parlay for a 3:1 shot or a 7:1 shot. Everyone else playing flat is getting 1:1. The Come Bet, however, is much choppier, and presents fewer opportunities to hit successive naturals. The chance that a shooter will roll an 11 (the only way to roll a natural and still keep the dice once a point has been established) is only 1:18 (or 5.55%).  If the shooter rolls a Seven, the hand is over. The dice pass to the next shooter who will start a new sequence. 

I hope this analysis helps you to understand why P4K is such a great strategy. In my opinion, a player making both a Pass Line bet and a Come bet, would be better off combining both bankrolls and make a larger bet on the Pass Line. Playing 4 Keeps means less exposure, less risk, bankroll protection and more bang for your bet. Getting the most from your limited funds and leveraging profits, is the Playing 4 Keeps mantra. Follow the 50% progression rule, a $10 player, after six passes, can make a $100 Pass Line bet with double odds without having pressure on the bankroll or the emotions, while hauling down substantial profit. No sweat! Front line winner!

Copyright © 2010 by Michael Vernon

www.playing4keeps.com 

Bubba, the math can get a little mind boggling as it involves several factors as you can see from the table above. Anyway, that is my explanation of the math. 

If you are a disciplined player and add my suggestions to your game I would expect for you to have consistent winning sessions. This of course assumes that you recognize when it is time to color up. 

All the best to you Bubba,

 

Michael Vernon

"The Professor"

www.Playing4Keeps.com  

Ask My Dog Mousse Part 3

A Follow Up to Bubba’s Email Questions 

Bubba, I am going to try to help you with the questions with better examples. In short it is about a fraction of a fraction. 

I am talking about wins, not times “at bat”, when you look at how the wins result, 45% will come from naturals, 7/11, on a Come Out roll. The remaining 55% result from repeating points.  Pop quiz: It is more likely that a box number will roll twice before a seven rolls once? Hint: Each roll is an independent event. Answer: The odds of occurrence are exactly the same every time the dice are rolled. 

Now, consider this. How do you like your chances with $10 Place Bet on a 10 verses the seven? Okay, now add the 4 and another $10. Feel better? Well, give it more help with a 5 and 9 for another $10 each. Does this scenario build your confidence to win? Hey, what the hell, for another $24 you can have all the numbers covered. Now how do you feel? Go back to your feelings of just one $10 bet on the 10 verses the 7. Does risking more money increase the confidence? The odds are exactly the same for each number to win or lose.  You may increase the chances of winning with more bets placed, but you do not over come the math. Why? As you increase your chances of winning, you increase your investment in the game. You can only win one bet at a time, but you lose it all when you lose. When you win, you win $14 or $18. When you lose, you lose $64. Sure you increase your chances of winning with more bets but you have to pay for it, that is the risk, and it still wins only one bet. With each bet, you buy into the house advantage paying extra for a chance of winning just one bet, which diminishes the rate of return…. Because of the odds against the bets to win. 

It reminds me of duck hunting. If you jump one duck on the pond you have but one chance and you must aim accurately or miss the duck. If you jump 50 ducks on the pond you have increased your chances by 49, but you still must aim accurately or miss the duck. Craps is not a shotgun game of blasting into the flock. No matter what the bet is, its number has to roll in order to win. It always comes down to the math. Almost isn’t good enough. 

The rest of my comments are in the body of your email typed in blue.


From: bubba [mailto:bubba@xxxxx.xxx]
Sent: Friday, January 13, 2012 6:59 PM
To: Mousse
Subject: Re: craps
 

Hi Professor,

I am trying to understand the math you gave me.  45% of Pass Line wins will be a 7.  45% results from naturals 7 or 11. So 55% won't.  Is that correct?  So the other 55% have to result from points made. So, then I have almost a 50% chance of the shooter rolling another number not the 7 for a win for me? Am I correct on that?  No, but I suppose close enough for your thinking. You missed that the 11 is part of the 45% and 2, 3, and 12 are neutral rolls for you, then after the come out the 11 is neutral adding to the mix and changing the odds. 2, 3, and 12 figure in at about 12% and after the Come Out, add the YO for another 6%. Rounded you have about 18% useless rolls and 17% that cause you to lose to the 7 out. Now factor in the one bet won per roll element and it is a different picture. Example, for 6 or 8 to roll it is about 14% compared to about 17% for your loser “7” and buffered by 18% neutral rolls after the come out. Do you begin to see how it becomes each bet against the 7? The neutral rolls are allies for the casino. Why? You said it yourself. With each roll we are one roll closer to the 7 Out. Brilliant! You said 75% of those naturals are going to come on winner sevens.  I don’t understand that. Why not 100% instead of 75% You are leaving out 11. It is 100%. It is what I explained in the earlier email. The naturals make up 45% of the Pass Line wins. 45% is the whole. Then 75% are sevens, (a piece of the whole 45%) and 25% are elevens, (the other piece of 45%). Bubba, see if this helps you understand it better. You get $100 for Christmas. $55 came from mom and dad. $45 came from an aunt and an uncle. Of the $45, 75% of the money came from Auntie Seven, or $33.75 and 25% came from Uncle YO or $11.25. 

You said winner 7's are going to constitute just over 33% of all wins. Yep. See the Christmas example above. If that's the case then 67% of all wins would be someone making their point. No, and this is the mind boggling part of understanding the math in detail for probability, odds, percents and how the house vigerish helps the casino’s bottom line even more. Check out the chart from the previous email.  (Wouldn't this be good for me who is going to get just two hits? Okay, let me ask a question back to you. Is the play working for you? If you feel the answer is yes, then, you have answered you own question. 

Bubba, if you pose this scenario to another person, you are likely to receive a totally different answer. The person may favor place betting and see things different to what I have described. However, there is no way of getting around the math that guarantees the casino their advantage. Even if you believe, as you state above, (almost a 50% chance of a shooter rolling another number) then it still leaves you with almost a 50% chance for that to not happen and you are exposed to losing your $32 trying to win an average of $16. That is not exactly how it works out, never the less I do not like the odds. I do not like risking more money to win less money, excepting Don’t bets when I have a distinct advantage once behind the number.  

Bubba, I explained last night the conditions that I feel make the play viable. I do not stick my neck out to make others wrong. I do this to share my years of experience standing at a dice table watching it all. There is no one best way to play. I do believe what I have put together, P4K, over time is the best conservative method for consistent results, no matter the energy aspect. (Especially when I consider that most players are low rollers and play less than 12 times per year with less than a $500 buy-in. Dice Setter Survey) Once a player understands the metaphysical advantage, they add a huge factor to their game. That is why I can say, “You can win them all”.  

If you are buying in for $325 your method of play should provide you with a reasonable gaming experience. That is, time at the table win or lose. Your way of playing is your way. For me that is what it is all about, enjoyment of the experience. There is nothing wrong with pursuing ideas to improve your game. Over my many years of teaching I have found that most players eventually revert to their own way. Mousse says hey! 

See ya at the tables,

The Professor

 

Dice Busters™ - 2012

In just one day you can improve

your experience playing dice forever!

 

Featuring Personal Coaching and Casino Play with

Soft Touch, The Dice Coach & The Professor

 

The "Real Deal" Returns to Las Vegas 

Join Them June 23rd, 2012

 


 

Welcome to the Complete Game of Dice!

 

   You will not find a more comprehensive live gaming workshop experience. If you are not 100% satisfied, your tuition will be cheerfully refunded. 

The World's best dice experts for one whole day.

Dice Busters™

     You will learn how the energy of a craps game plays in your favor. You will learn about the esoteric, unseen dimensions that hold essential information for every craps player. You will experience by personal demonstration, how to know the right game to play and when to color up your profits. Game selection is a factor of the energy present. You will experience this process for yourself guided by your instructors.

      You will learn solid money management, bankroll protection, disciplined play, conservative and aggressive betting strategies, and the unique element of how to use positive energy, intention and applied metaphysics from the best gaming instructors in the gaming business.  You will learn from the experts how to most effectively use "dice setting and dice influencing" to maximize your results.

   There is nothing about the game of craps that the Dice Busters do not know. Their years of combined gaming knowledge and talented, creative teaching abilities, delivers the best craps lessons to be offered any where in the world. You will receive the best value for your invested tuition, guaranteed. In addition to all of the hands on instruction, you will take part in a live casino session with the Dice Busters at your side supervising your play!

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Call Toll Free to Register 866-342-3626

 

Today's Wisdom:

 

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