The ten times
theory also refers to a minimum bankroll.
Theres
a reason why GIs carry around those fifty pound field packs, and it is not for the
exercise. If they run out of ammunition, they
pay with their lives. In the case of casino craps, it is always comforting to have a few
extra bullets in your magazine.
For that
reason, I prefer a session bankroll of 12 15 times my initial spread.
Spread, by the way,
is the second part of the craps bankroll equation. Many
players hear first bet and take that to mean their line bet. For example, a ten-dollar pass line better might
determine that his first bet times ten is $100, and believe that is a sufficient session
bankroll.
Yet this same player places $20 in
odds behind the line, then makes two come bets with odds, giving him a total of $90 in
action.
He has mistakenly focused on the
initial line bet instead of the total spread. Using
the 10X formula, this level of betting requires a minimum bankroll of $900, not $100.
Using the more conservative 12X formula, a session
bankroll of around $1100 would be more reasonable.
The next part of
the formula is to determine how many sessions you plan to play. I played five sessions on my last overnight
outing.
When on extended trips to Vegas or
Tunica, an average of three to four sessions a day is not unusual. On a three-night trip to Vegas, then, I would take
sufficient bankroll for nine to ten sessions, and keep an additional three to four session
bankroll in reserve.
Running out of bullets
on day one is akin to being taken hostage during a minor skirmish and spending the rest of
the war in a POW camp. It is not a lot of
fun.
Lets take
another betting scenario and do the math just to make sure you understand the numbers. In this case, we will consider a player who uses a
simple place betting system where he by-passes the come out roll and places the inside
numbers.
If the six or eight is the point he
places $32 inside thats $12 on number opposite the point, and ten each on the
five or nine. If the five or nine are the
point, he places $10 on the number opposite the point and $12 each on the six and eight.
In those instances where the four or ten is the
point, he places $12 each on the six and eight, and $5 each on the five and nine. He will always have three or four inside numbers
working for him, with $32 to $34 at risk.
Using the
conservative 12X the initial bet theory with a $34 spread, this players session
bankroll should be around $408. Now
lets assume hes going to play three sessions per day.
Thats a daily bankroll of $1224. And if hes going to be in Vegas for three
nights then his total trip bankroll would be $3672. To
be conservative, add sufficient reserves for three more sessions. That brings the total trip bankroll up to $4896.
Quite a bit of cash compared to what the average
tourist brings to gamble with in Vegas according to the Las Vegas Convention and
Visitors Bureau its just a little over $500.
And THAT is one of the primary reasons most players leave Vegas with empty pockets.
Okay, I can hear
the objections coming already. You cannot
afford to commit close to $5000 to a gambling bankroll.
Fine. You dont have to.
There are plenty of variables in the formula. Reducing your spread to $17 reduces the required
bankroll by half.
Cutting down to two
sessions a day reduces it by another third. The
important thing to remember is that the size of your bankroll and the size of your bet are
mutually dependent numbers.
As the bankroll
decreases, so must the size of your bets. Playing
beyond your bankroll and increasing the size of your bets after losses leads to
gamblers ruin.
Here are some of
the ways I limit the amount of bankroll I risk. First
of all, I incorporate a regression after my first win. For example, I may place $66 inside
thats three units each on the 5, 6, 8, and 9.
By
the above logic, I should start out with a bankroll of around $800 to make this play. However, after the first hit on any number, I
collect a $21 pay off then reduce my bets to either $22 inside or a $12 six and eight. On the second toss of the dice I have $22 - $24 in
action, but only have $1 - $3 at risk due to the hit and regress move. This strategy lowers my average spread to $44
which requires a bankroll of around $530.
In addition to
these moves, Ill limit the number of shooters Ill bet on. Think of it as scouting out the enemy positions.
I chart players as well as table trends, looking
for a qualified shooter. Whats
a qualified shooter? Its a player who
has proven he can throw point numbers and sustain a longer than average roll.
Nine times out of ten these are dice setters who
display a talent for delivering the dice the same way time after time, thereby reducing
their sevens-to-roll ratio and the casinos advantage.
Even these conservative strategies, though,
require a 10-session bankroll of over $5000.
Where do you get
that kind of bankroll. It really is not that
difficult. Set aside fifty bucks out of each
pay check and in a year you have accumulated $1200.
Clean
out the garage and have a yard sale for another $200.
If you have a 401K at work, have your dividends paid to you quarterly direct
instead of reinvested.
Take a sandwich for
lunch instead of eating at Burger King to save another hundred a month. Take that fifty dollars your aunt gave you for
Christmas and add it to the stash.
Throw your
pocket change into a piggy bank every night and count it up once a year. And always - ALWAYS commit at least fifty percent
of your winnings back into your bankroll.
Remember, when you enter
the casino you are entering enemy territory. The
rules of engagement are clearly drawn. To
win the day you must have two things. A
battle plan and a bunch of bullets.
Dont
end up like the pilot who delivered his bombs, then realized he didnt have enough
fuel to get back to base.
Come to the table
with sufficient bankroll, a win objective and a loss limit.
And if you have the misfortune of hitting that loss limit, have the discipline to
accept that loss as a temporary set back and walk away.
The soldier who knows when to retreat lives to fight another day.
Back To Heavy On...
Copyright 2001 by Stephen Haltom - all rights
reserved.