My overriding passion in writing all of these
articles, and frankly in ultimately allowing Stanford Wong to publish my book; is so that players can
finally bridge the gaping and disappointingly wide chasm between the edge that their
derandomized throws produce...and the profits that their skills should be generating.
Making the connection between the edge that you currently shoot with and the
profit that those same skills should be earning you; is actually
easier than it appears, although admittedly, most players will continue to make it unnecessarily difficult on
themselves.
This entire series is all about how to
safely make more money from your current skills. In most cases, that means showing you what you
could accomplish if you simply wagered on your current advantage the way it should be
bet.
I like to make as much
money with as little risk from my DI skills as possible. I do that
by focusing the bulk of the money that
I’ve allocated on a perhand basis, to those validated positiveexpectations wagers that I know I am most
likely to collect from during the pointcycle.
The following chart will help you determine
where your own opportunities are; and when you regress your wagers at the optimal regression point,
this chart also shows what your true edge over these multinumber globalbets really is.
Your true edge, when broken out on a
perroll basis, is critical in helping you determine the proper size of your
preregression wagers in relation to the boundaries of your current total gaming
bankroll.
PlayerEdge
using Optimized Regression 

SSR7 
SSR8 
SSR9 
7’s per 36rolls

5.14 
4.5 
4.0 
7Out Probability/Roll

14.29% 
12.50% 
11.11% 
Average
PointCycle
RollDuration

7 
8 
9 
Average Rolls/PL or 7Out Decision

4.2 
5.0 
5.8 
Inside




Insidenumbers to 7’s ratio

3.6:1 
4.1:1 
4.75:1 
Insidenumber
Probability/Roll 
51.19% 
52.08% 
52.78% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

2.00% 
6.23% 
12.36% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.48% 
1.25% 
2.13% 
Across




Acrossnumbers to 7’s ratio

4.8:1 
5.6:1 
6.4:1 
Acrossnumber
Probability/Roll 
68.58% 
70.00% 
71.11% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.78% 
5.84% 
11.97% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.42% 
1.17% 
2.06% 
Outside




Outsidenumbers to 7’s ratio

2.8:1 
3.3:1 
3.7:1 
Outsidenumber
Probability/Roll 
40.00% 
40.83% 
41.47% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
2 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.40% 
5.10% 
10.70% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.33% 
1.02% 
1.85% 
Even




Evennumbers to 7’s ratio

3.20:1 
3.73:1 
4.27:1 
Evennumber
Probability/Roll 
45.72% 
46.67% 
47.42% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.82% 
5.86% 
12.09% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.43% 
1.17% 
2.08% 
Iron Cross




ICnumbers to 7’s ratio

6:1 
7:1 
8:1 
ICnumber
Probability/Roll 
85.72% 
87.50% 
88.89% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.68% 
5.59% 
11.64% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.40% 
1.12% 
2.01% 
6 and 8




6’s & 8’s to 7’s ratio

2:1 
2.33:1 
2.67:1 
6 & 8
Probability/Roll 
28.57% 
29.16% 
29.63% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

2.42% 
7.42% 
14.00% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.58% 
1.48% 
2.55% 
5 and 9




5’s & 9’s to 7’s ratio

1.6:1 
1.87:1 
2.14:1 
5 & 9
Probability/Roll 
22.86% 
23.33% 
23.71% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.70% 
5.60% 
11.70% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.40% 
1.12% 
2.02% 
4 and 10




4’s & 10’s to 7’s ratio

1.2:1 
1.4:1 
1.6:1 
4 and 10
Probability/Roll 
17.14% 
17.5% 
17.78% 
Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
2 
4 
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve

1.10% 
4.60% 
9.60% 
Overall
EdgeperRoll 
0.26% 
0.92% 
1.67% 
What It Means
7’s per 36rolls
is simply the average number of 7’s that will show up in a range of 36rolls.
For a randomroller it is six 7’s per 36rolls,
but as your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) improves, this number drops to 5.14 for
SRR7, 4.5 for SRR8, and 4.0 for SRR9.
7Out Probability/Roll
represents the likelihood of a 7
showing up on any given roll. Given your SRRrate, this can be expressed as a
percentage. For a randomroller, the probability of a 7 showing up on any given
roll is 16.67%, for a SRR7 shooter it is 14.29%; for a SRR8 diceinfluencer it
is 12.5% on any given roll, and for a SRR9 precisionshooter, it is 11.11%.
PointCycle RollDuration
is just another way of expressing your SRRrate, in that it represents how many
roll, on average, you will see between 7’s.
Average Rolls/PL or 7Out
Decision tells us
how many rolls our SRRdriven skill will generate before either repeating our
PLPoint or 7’ingOut. Where this figure can be quite helpful is in figuring
out how many PLPoints we are likely to repeat during an average hand. The
reason this number is lower than our pointcycle roll duration is due to those
hands where multiple PLPoint numbers are made within a string of pointcycle
rolls. A randomroller will experience about 3.4 rolls per Passline decision,
while an SRR7 shooter will encounter an average of 4.2 rolls, an SRR8
diceinfluencer will throw an average of 5.0 rolls per Passline decision, and a
SRR9 precisionshooter will experience about 5.8 rolls per PL decision.
(Globalbet) to 7’s ratio
is the specific expected
hitrate for each of these multinumber wagers (Inside, Outside, Even, etc.)
when compared to the frequency of 7’s for each SRR skilllevel. For example,
we’d randomly expect to see 3.0 Insidenumber hits for every one 7Out,
and Insidenumbers have a random perroll expectancyrate of 50%; however a
SRR7 player produces a slightly better InsideNumber expectancy of 51.19%
perroll, and can expect 3.6 Insidenumber hits for each 7Out that he throws.
Likewise, randomrollers expect to see 4.0 Acrossnumbers for each 7Out (where
the Acrosswager accounts for 66.6% of all random outcomes); whereas in the
hands of an SRR7 shooter, Acrossnumbers generally account for a slightly
higher 68.58% perroll appearancerate, but because of the lower frequency of
7’s, the SRR7 shooter enjoys a much higher 4.8 Acrossnumbersto7’s ratio.
(Globalbet)
ProbabilityperRoll
sets out, in general terms, what we can expect each of these bets to account for
as far as perroll probability is concerned. For example, the IronCross
(everything but the 7) accounts for 83.33% of all random outcomes (the 7
accounts for the other 16.67%). However, as your SRRrate improves, so does the
perroll probability of this wager. For example, an SRR7 shooter can expect
his IC anythingbut7 outcomes to account for
85.72% of his outcomes, while the SRR8 shooter can expect it 87.50% of the
time; and for the SRR9 shooter, the Iron Cross will account for 88.89% of his
pointcycle results.
Optimal Hits Before Regressing
is the number of
winning hits this particular bet should remain at its initial large
preregression level before optimally reducing it to a lower betamount. For
example, a SRR7 shooter would ideally leave his InsideNumber wager at its
large preregression starting value for one hit only; while the SRR8 shooter
can afford to leave it at its initial starting value for three paying hits
before regressing to a lower amount of exposure.
Cumulative PreRegression Edge on
this Wager based on BetSurvival Curve
is the aggregate advantage the
player has over the house prior to regressing his chosen bet at the optimal
time. This figure gives you an idea of how powerful regressionbetting can be
when properly combined with diceinfluencing. By merging your skilldriven
expectedrollduration with a bettingmethod that utilizes and exploits the
fattest, highestsurvival portion of your pointcycle expectancycurve; you
derive benefit from the most frequently occurring opportunities, while
concurrently reducing bankroll volatility and risk as your pointcycle
betsurvival rate diminishes.
Overall EdgeperRoll
is the weighted advantage you have over the house during each toss in your
pointcycle roll when using regressionstyle wagering. To manage volatility and
err on the ultraconservative side of money management; this figure is used to
indicate how much of your total gaming bankroll you can reasonably afford to
expose to these multinumber globalwagers when starting with a larger initial
bet and then reducing it at the optimal regression point.
For example, an SRR7 shooter who
validates his edge over the Placebet 6 & 8 and chooses to use a 5:1 steepness
ratio ($30 each on the 6 & 8 regressed down to $6 each after the first hit);
would divide his 0.58% regressionbased true edge over this combined bet into
the total initial betvalue of $60 ($60 / 0.0058) to determine that his
total IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosethisamountofmoney gaming
bankroll should be around $10,344 for this skilllevel and regressed steepness
ratio.
Likewise, an SRR8 player making
the very same bet, but with a 1.48% edgeperroll over the Placebet 6 & 8
wager, would optimally have a total
IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosethisamountofmoney gaming bankroll of $4054
for this wager ($60 / 0.0148). If let’s say, this same player decided to use a
more modest 3:1 steepness ratio ($18 each on the 6 & 8 regressed down to $6 each
after optimally enjoying three paying hits at the initial rate); then he’d take
the total initial wager of $36 ($18 on the Placebet 6 + $18 on the Placebet 8)
and divide that by the same 0.0148 (his true regressionbased edge perroll over
this wager) to determine that he’d ideally have a total gaming bankroll of $2432
to back up this lower startingvalue bet.
Coming Up
In Part Twenty of this series, we are
going to dive into the whole
howmuchmoneydoIREALLYneedtoproperlyexploitmyedge question in
extraordinary detail. We’ll explore the best ways to safely utilize your edge
without imperiling your bankroll, and we’ll run through each of these
globalbets over a broad range of steepnessratios to look at how big your
overall bankroll really should be.
I hope you’ll join me for that. Until then,
Good Luck & Good Skill at
the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006