Regression Avoids Depression
Part 20
Today we are going to dive into the whole
howmuchmoneydoIREALLYneedtoproperlyexploitmyedge question
in extraordinary detail.
Having An Edge Does Not
Guarantee a Profit
Even if you play with a substantial advantage
over the casino, it does not guarantee that you will always emerge with a
profit.
Edge is one thing, but the winsome,
losesome volatility on the bets that you make, is something
completely different.
To my mind, volatility has to be
chief amongst the considerations when a player is seeking to exploit his edge
over the casino on any given bet.
Without a doubt, knowing what your "EV edge" (expectedvalue
advantage) over the house is, is always important; but knowing how volatile
that edge is, is something that also has to be considered.
For example, a 1% edge over your flat Passline
wager is much less volatile than a 1% edge over the propbet 12Midnight. So
even though your edge over both of those bets is the same; you’ll
likely experience much wider volatility swings with one than the
other.
When the same value of wagers are made, the
12Midnight bettor will require a much larger bankroll than the Passlinebettor
does. That is because the Propbettor with the same edge as the PLonly
bettor, will endure much more bankroll volatility on his way to deriving
the same overall 1% edgederivedprofit as the PLbettor does.
Consider this…
Ø
An advantageplayer has to
overcome a hefty houseedge of 13.89% on the 12Midnight, but only has to
surmount a miniscule 1.41% houseedge on a flat Passline wager.
Ø
The 12Midnight has a less
recurrent winfrequency (due to it’s lower appearancerate), but a
much higher 30:1 payouttobet ratio.
Ø
The Passline enjoys a more
recurrent winfrequency (due to it’s higher winrate), but a lower,
evenmoney (1:1) payoutratio.
As a result, a 1% playeredge (or any
positiveexpectation edge for that matter) on a particular bet cannot be
viewed in isolation. Rather, each wager has to be viewed in relation to the
occurrencerate (the expected frequency) of its appearance, as well as the
payoutratio (x:1) of what that particular bet pays when it does show up.
To get a handle on betvolatility (and
therefore the volatility you'll experience over your entire gaming
bankroll if you look at all of your wagers from this same perspective);
you have to determine how frequently a given advantageplay bet will occur
during an average hand. That way, if we know how often it will usually
show up, we start to get a handle on how volatile each of our
positiveexpectation bets will be; and therefore we get an excellent grasp of
how large our bankroll drawdowns will likely be.
Ø
If we know that there will be
naturally occurring gaps in between winning payouts, then we’ll be less likely
to let that formerly annoying pause between payinghits affect our shooting.
Ø
If we understand how volatility
works within the parameters of our current advantageplay diceinfluencing
skills; then there’s less of a chance, as Heavy would say, that “the crap
between our ears” will conspire to diminish the effectiveness of our actual
throws.
For example, in random play, the Insidebet accounts for 50% of all outcomes,
and provides an Insidenumbersto7's ratio of 3:1. In the hands of an SRR7
shooter, Insidenumbers will generally account for about 51.19% of all outcomes.
Now on the face of it, a slight increase of 1.19% in frequencyoccurrence
doesn't seem like much; however that's not the whole picture because the
nowreconfigured Insidenumbersto7's ratio suddenly jumps to around 3.6:1,
which is a 20% increase in the allimportant hitsper7Out ratio. To my mind,
that is where the "advantage" in advantageplay really comes from.
When the dice are in your hand, it’s obviously
quite difficult to tell the difference between a random InsideNumber
appearancerate of 50% and an SRR7 appearancerate of
51.19%; but the difference is there nonetheless, and it
is in that difference where your DI
skills bear the most profitable fruit.
If there’s a better reason to use rolltracking
software to track, analyze, and confirm your actual edge against each and every
bet on the layout…I can’t think of one.
I’m not egotistical enough to think that I can
intuitively tell the difference between a randomlyexpected InsideNumber
appearancerate of 50% and a heavily advantaged rate of 51.19% without the aid
of tracking software or at least some serious paperandpencil ciphering
time…and that goes a long way to explaining why most diceinfluencers miss
out on the majority of the moneymaking opportunities that their current skills
are offering.
Admittedly, most players prefer to use an
inthemoment, seatofthepants kind of “intuitive betting” that in most cases
is either one or two rolls too late, or is anticipatorily outsized (overbet)
for their current skills…which in either case, ends up bruising their ego and
leaves them questioning whether or not they really have any exploitable
DI talent whatsoever…even though the easytoattain but mostly ignored
profitopportunities are right there in front of them.
Ø
Combining your betterthanrandom
expected hitrate with the returnoninvestment offered by your positive EVedge,
provides an easy and straightforward way to measure: betvolatility, likely
drawdown levels, and ultimately answers the
howmuchbankrollisrequiredtoproperlyfinancethiswager question.
The smart diceinfluencer takes a long and
honest look at his current talents to determine where his chief opportunities
are, and then puts a reasonable amount of his bettingweight on only his
strongest, mostcompelling wagers in order to derive a consistently extractable
profit.
Though this common sense
approach is not as impetuous or spontaneous as the seatofthepants impulse
betting preferred by most players; it sure produces a lot more profit.
When
To Invest, and How Much To Invest
Looking at the number of decisions you are
likely to produce on any given AP bet before the 7Out occurs, let's you
“invest” (wager) the correct
proportionallyadjustedforvolatilityandrisk amount of money on this
particular advantageplay opportunity.
Investing the proper amount of
adjustedforvolatility money on each advantageplay opportunity helps you
determine whether that wager will produce the profit (both R.O.I.percentage and
total dollarswon) that you want or need, and it will also show how much of a
bankrollswing you are likely to encounter along the way. That in turn let's you
make informed, honest, rational decisions about whether or not you are properly
financed in order to avoid risk of
IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosethisamountofmoney ruin.
When all of your AP bets are measured in this fashion, you can then determine
how much of a total gaming bankroll you'll need in order to adequately fund the
type and level of all the bets you are considering; so that’s what we are
going to look at today.
As I explained in Part 19
of this series, the following chart shows what your edgeperroll will likely be
based upon regressing your large initial bet down to a smaller one at the
optimal triggerpoint during your pointcycle.
EdgeperRoll
using Optimized Regression 
Type of Bet

SSR7 
SSR8 
SSR9 
Inside
EdgeperRoll

0.48% 
1.25% 
2.13% 
Across
EdgeperRoll

0.42% 
1.17% 
2.06% 
Outside
EdgeperRoll

0.33% 
1.02% 
1.85% 
Even
EdgeperRoll

0.43% 
1.17% 
2.08% 
Iron Cross
EdgeperRoll

0.40% 
1.12% 
2.01% 
6 and 8
EdgeperRoll

0.58% 
1.48% 
2.55% 
5 and 9
EdgeperRoll

0.40% 
1.12% 
2.02% 
4 and 10
EdgeperRoll

0.26% 
0.92% 
1.67% 
We can use these edgeperroll figures to
answer the whole
howmuchmoneydoIREALLYneedtoproperlyexploitmyedge question in
extraordinary detail.
Let’s take a look at the
Insidebet to see how much of a bankroll we should reasonably have in our total
IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosethisamountofmoney gaming
bankroll for this particular wager.
Inside Bet`
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($44
to $22) 
3:1
($66
to $22) 
4:1
($88
to $22) 
5:1
($110
to $22) 
10:1
($220
to $22) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.48% 
$9167 
$13,750 
$18,334 
$22,917

$45,833 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.25% 
$3520 
$5280 
$7040 
$8800 
$17,600 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.13% 
$2065 
$3098 
$4131 
$5164 
$10,329 
Now on the face of it, a recommended total
IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosethisamountofmoney bankroll of at least $9000
for an SRR7 shooter using a 2:1 Steepness ratio ($44 regressed to $22) seems
rather excessive, but that is the amount we need to ensure that we’ll never
reach that “I’mgivingupthisdamngame” point in our advantageplay
efforts.
What’s even more illustrative about this chart
is the fact that as your skilllevel improves, you can afford to play with a
much smaller bankroll for the exact same multinumber global wager. For
example, an SRR8 shooter making that same 2:1 regression only needs a total
bankroll of $3500, while the SRR9 precisionshooter can have a dedicated total
bankroll of only $2000 for this particular wager to attain the same profit
objectives.
Take a look at how that
holds true for the AllAcross wager too…
Across Bet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($64
to $32) 
3:1
($96
to $32) 
4:1
($128
to $32) 
5:1
($160
to $32) 
10:1
($320
to $32) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.42% 
$15,238 
$22,857 
$30,476 
$38,095 
$76,190 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.17% 
$5470 
$8421 
$10,940 
$13,675 
$27,350 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.06% 
$3106 
$4660 
$6213 
$7767 
$15,534 
The next thing that becomes
patently clear when you review these charts, is that the more numbers
you spread your wagers across and the more money you have on the
table at any given time to cover these multinumber wagers; the more
of a total bankroll you will need in order to safely stakehorse and
properly finance these bets.
Outside Bet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($40
to $20) 
3:1
($60
to $20) 
4:1
($80
to $20) 
5:1
($100
to $20) 
10:1
($200
to $20) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.33% 
$12,121 
$18,182 
$24,242 
$30,303 
$60,606 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.02% 
$3922 
$5882 
$7843 
$9804 
$19,608 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
1.85% 
$2162 
$3243 
$4324 
$5405 
$10,810 
By now I’m sure a lot of you will be asking
yourself, “Am I prepared to dedicate this much
money to that particular bet?”
If the answer is “No”;
then you should either reduce your current bettinglevel on these
wagers…or select a bettingmethod that covers fewer wagers…or improve
your shooting…or a combination of all of them.
Evennumber Bet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($44
to $22) 
3:1
($66
to $22) 
4:1
($88
to $22) 
5:1
($110
to $22) 
10:1
($220
to $22) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.43% 
$10,232 
$15,349 
$20,465 
$25,581 
$51,162 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.17% 
$3760 
$5641 
$7521 
$9401 
$18,803 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.08% 
$2115 
$3173 
$4230 
$5288 
$10,577 
IronCross Bet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($44
to $22) 
3:1
($66
to $22) 
4:1
($88
to $22) 
5:1
($110
to $22) 
10:1
($220
to $22) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.40% 
$11,000 
$16,500 
$22,000 
$27,500 
$55,000 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.12% 
$3928 
$5893 
$7857 
$9821 
$19,643 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.01% 
$2189 
$3283 
$4378 
$5473 
$10,945 
Invest on Strength and
Purge on Weakness
This is where we start to get into some
situations that illuminate the whole idea of focusing your positiveexpectation
investments on the strongest wagers in your advantageplay arsenal while
simultaneously avoiding or purging all the weaker or negativeedge bets
from your wagering regimen.
Take a look at the following chart to see how
much (well, actually, how little) of a total gambling budget is needed to
properly and safely exploit a basic 6 and 8 Placebet when you are using an
Initial Regression style of betting.
6 and 8 Placebet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($24
to $12) 
3:1
($36
to $12) 
4:1
($48
to $12) 
5:1
($60
to $12) 
10:1
($120
to $12) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.58% 
$4138 
$6207 
$8276 
$10,345 
$20,690 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.48% 
$1621 
$2432 
$3243 
$4054 
$8108 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.55% 
$941 
$1412 
$1882 
$2353 
$4706 
Since the 6 and 8 Placebet is a fairly
lowvolatility wager to begin with, a diceinfluencer doesn’t need as much money
to take properly advantage of it. That is because your bankroll will endure
much less whipsaw backandforth winsome/losesome volatility, and therefore
you don’t need as big of a safetynet to comfortably take advantage of your
positiveexpectation skills.
The same bankrollrequirement
characteristics that you have for the regressed Placebet 6 & 8 holds true for
the regressedattheoptimaltime Placebet 5 & 9 too.
Take a look…
5 and 9 Placebet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($20
to $10) 
3:1
($30
to $10) 
4:1
($40
to $10) 
5:1
($50
to $10) 
10:1
($100
to $10) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.40% 
$5000 
$7500 
$10,000 
$12,500 
$25,000 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
1.12% 
$1786 
$2679 
$3571 
$4464 
$8928 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
2.02% 
$990 
$1485 
$1980 
$2475 
$4950 
4 and 10 Placebet
Optimal Total Bankroll
for this wager
(based on skilllevel and
ISR Steepness Ratio) 
ISR
Steepness
Ratio

2:1
($20
to $10) 
3:1
($30
to $10) 
4:1
($40
to $10) 
5:1
($50
to $10) 
10:1
($100
to $10) 
SRR7
EdgeperRoll
0.26% 
$7692 
$11,538 
$15,385 
$19,230 
$38,461 
SRR8
EdgeperRoll
0.92% 
$2174 
$3261 
$4348 
$5435 
$10,870 
SRR9
EdgeperRoll
1.67% 
$1198 
$1796 
$2395 
$2994 
$5988 
If You Don’t Know This By Now…
If it isn’t clear by now that you have to be
sufficiently bankrolled in order to take proper advantage of your
diceinfluencing, then the lesson has not only been lost; but more importantly,
there is very little chance that you’ll be able to turn your current
diceinfluencing skills into sustainable profit…not because you can’t,
but simply because you choose not to.
Coming Up
“Okay Mad Professor, so I’ve
got a propersized bankroll and I know which bets I have the biggest edge over,
and I know when to regress them at the optimal triggerpoint; now HOW MUCH MONEY
can I expect to make on a perhand, persession, perday, perweek, permonth
and peryear basis?”
In Part 21 of this series, we are going
to dive into the whole
HOWMUCHmoneycanIexpecttomakeoffofthesebetsandHOWLONGbeforeIdoublemybankroll
question in extraordinary detail. I hope you’ll join me for that.
Until then,
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The
Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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