Regression Avoids Depression
Part 21
Let me ask you something.
How long has
it been since your diceinfluencing winnings actually doubled your total
gaming bankroll?
Let’s say that you would give
up diceinfluencing altogether if you lost a total of $3000; how long has it
been
since your diceinfluencing
winnings actually increased your
IwillgiveupcrapsifIlosexamount of total
gaming bankroll by more than
double?
If that’s too tough of a
question or if you refuse to consider the amount of money that you are
continually
feeding in to repeatedly prop
up your sessional buyins from an undefined total bankroll; then let me ask
you this:
When was the
last time your precisionshooting winnings actually justified an increase
in the basic
advantageplay bets that you currently spread on the table?
That is, when did your
total winnings, not just your
I’monagoodrollsoI’llpressupmybetswithsome
ofmywinnings,
justify an increase in the value of your basic advantageplay bets?
I ask you all of this because
today I’m going to show you
how long it will generally take for
you to
DOUBLE
an optimallysized bankroll if you based your positiveexpectation bets strictly
on your CURRENT shooting skills.
When was the last time
someone did THAT for you (that didn’t include a crazy “parlay
it to the moon…
stack it, never rack it
until you reach the tablemax” method)?
Advantageplay diceinfluencing is all about taking the skills that you
currently have, and using
them to
extract a predictable profit on the positiveexpectation wagers that you make.
If you have the skill (and
frankly, your actual DI abilities don’t have to be much above random); and you
make the bets that are sized
to your actual advantage (no matter how small it is); then you can reasonably
determine approximately how long it will generally take for you to double
your bankroll.
Now obviously I’m not going
to factor in any of the frivolous bets where you waste your money on random
rollers and unqualified
hunches; that’s between you, your conscience, and the dayjob that you need to
keep in order to
continually feed what would otherwise be an excellent second source of income.
Rather,
I’m going to show you how, if
you actually allowed yourself to do it, that it would take for you to double an
optimallysized
bankroll…based entirely on your current skills and NOT on a
somedayintheimprobable
otterywinningfuture
fantasy.
Prepare To Make More Money
My advantageplay
philosophy is all about extracting a netprofit from as many of our current
hands as possible without
unduly restraining our overall earningspower nor unduly
endangering our bankroll.
That simply means that I
like to make as much money with as little risk as possible. It
also means that I understand the need to focus my money on the wagers that I am
most likely to collect from during the
pointcycle.
I’ll remind you again that it is important that
you start to think about your bets in relation not only to the
size of the buyin money that you bring to the
table (that’s your “session buyin”), but more importantly
how much money your current skilllevel (when
combined with your intended wagers) demand and require
in terms of a reasonable overall
bankroll to ensure a lowrisk shot at reasonable profitgrowth…and
bankroll doubling.
Now although you may choose not to apply
optimallysized wagers to your diceinfluencing skills at
the present time; there’s nothing to say that
you won’t be able to work your way up to making optimally
sized bets over a reasonable period of time;
it’s just that it will obviously take much, much longer to get there.
The following is a compilation, by SRRrate,
for each of the global bets that we’ve been discussing in
this series; so you may want to print out the
table that pertains to your current SRR skilllevel for a quick
incasino reference guide.
I’ll also mention again that these
advantagedplays are based on regressing your bets at the optimal
ISR triggerpoint, and obviously
if you venture offpath with the triggerpoint (thereby suboptimally
regressing your bets); then your profitmileage
is going to suffer a substantial penalty.
SRR7
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers 
Steepness Ratio

2:1 
3:1 
4:1 
5:1 
10:1 
Inside 
$9167 
$13,750 
$18,334 
$22,917 
$45,833 
Across 
$15,238 
$22,857 
$30,476 
$38,095 
$76,190 
Outside 
$12,121 
$18,182 
$24,242 
$30,303 
$60,606 
Even 
$10,232 
$15,349 
$20,465 
$25,581 
$51,162 
Iron
Cross 
$11,000 
$16,500 
$22,000 
$27,500 
$55,000 
6 & 8 
$4138 
$6207 
$8276 
$10,345 
$20,690 
5 & 9 
$5000 
$7500 
$10,000 
$12,500 
$25,000 
4 & 10 
$7692 
$11,538 
$15,385 
$19,230 
$38,461 
SRR8
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers 
Steepness Ratio

2:1 
3:1 
4:1 
5:1 
10:1 
Inside 
$3520 
$5280 
$7040 
$8800 
$17,600 
Across 
$5470 
$8421 
$10,940 
$13,675 
$27,350 
Outside 
$3922 
$5882 
$7843 
$9804 
$19,608 
Even 
$3760 
$5641 
$7521 
$9401 
$18,803 
Iron
Cross 
$3928 
$5893 
$7857 
$9821 
$19,643 
6 & 8 
$1621 
$2432 
$3243 
$4054 
$8108 
5 & 9 
$1786 
$2679 
$3571 
$4464 
$8928 
4 & 10 
$2174 
$3261 
$4348 
$5435 
$10,870 
SRR9
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers 
Steepness Ratio

2:1 
3:1 
4:1 
5:1 
10:1 
Inside 
$2065 
$3098 
$4131 
$5164 
$10,329 
Across 
$3106 
$4660 
$6213 
$7767 
$15,534 
Outside 
$2162 
$3243 
$4324 
$5405 
$10,810 
Even 
$2115 
$3173 
$4230 
$5288 
$10,577 
Iron
Cross 
$2189 
$3283 
$4378 
$5473 
$10,945 
6 & 8 
$941 
$1412 
$1882 
$2353 
$4706 
5 & 9 
$990 
$1485 
$1980 
$2475 
$4950 
4 & 10 
$1198 
$1796 
$2395 
$2994 
$5988 
Okay, let’s take a slightly
different look at how the recommended amount of total bankroll goes down
as
your SRRrate go up.
Optimal Bankroll for
Steep Regression Betting

ISR
Steepness Ratio

2:1 
3:1 
4:1 
5:1 
10:1 
Inside






SRR7

$9167 
$13,750 
$18,334 
$22,917 
$45,833 
SRR8

$3520 
$5280 
$7040 
$8800 
$17,600 
SRR9 
$2065 
$3098 
$4131 
$5164 
$10,329 
Across






SRR7

$15,238 
$22,857 
$30,476 
$38,095 
$76,190 
SRR8

$5470 
$8421 
$10,940 
$13,675 
$27,350 
SRR9 
$3106 
$4660 
$6213 
$7767 
$15,534 
Outside






SRR7

$12,121 
$18,182 
$24,242 
$30,303 
$60,606 
SRR8

$3922 
$5882 
$7843 
$9804 
$19,608 
SRR9 
$2162 
$3243 
$4324 
$5405 
$10,810 
Even






SRR7

$10,232 
$15,349 
$20,465 
$25,581 
$51,162 
SRR8

$3760 
$5641 
$7521 
$9401 
$18,803 
SRR9

$2115 
$3173 
$4230 
$5288 
$10,577 
Iron Cross






SRR7

$11,000 
$16,500 
$22,000 
$27,500 
$55,000 
SRR8

$3928 
$5893 
$7857 
$9821 
$19,643 
SRR9 
$2189 
$3283 
$4378 
$5473 
$10,945 
6 &
8 





SRR7

$4138 
$6207 
$8276 
$10,345 
$20,690 
SRR8

$1621 
$2432 
$3243 
$4054 
$8108 
SRR9 
$941 
$1412 
$1882 
$2353 
$4706 
5 &
9 





SRR7

$5000 
$7500 
$10,000 
$12,500 
$25,000 
SRR8

$1786 
$2679 
$3571 
$4464 
$8928 
SRR9

$990 
$1485 
$1980 
$2475 
$4950 
4 &
10 





SRR7

$7692 
$11,538 
$15,385 
$19,230 
$38,461 
SRR8

$2174 
$3261 
$4348 
$5435 
$10,870 
SRR9 
$1198 
$1796 
$2395 
$2994 
$5988 
How Many Hands To Double My
Bankroll?
Now that we
know how big of an overall bankroll we would ideally have when we are
making these sorts
of
multinumber, multihit globalbets; let’s consider how quickly we can
double our starting bankroll.
BetType

SSR7 
SSR8 
SSR9 
Inside 



Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll 
2303
hands 
196
hands 
83
hands 
Across 



Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll 
1455 hands 
302
hands 
120
hands 
Outside 



Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll 
2484
hands 
320
hands 
80
hands 
Even 



Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll 
1987 hands 
178
hands 
72
hands 
Iron
Cross 



Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll 
2546
hands 
469
hands 
176
hands 
6 &
8 



Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll 
326
hands 
82
hands 
35
hands 
5 & 9 



Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll 
796
hands 
89
hands 
36
hands 
4 &
10 



Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll 
810
hands 
112
hands 
31
hands 
You’ll notice that some
bettingmethods provide bankrolldoubling much quicker than other methods
even though they are still within
the same SRR skillrate. This is because the Initial Steep Regression
(ISR) triggerpoint (where the
large initial wager is reduced to a smaller subsequent wager) varies
amongst these wagers. As a
result, some globalbets have a higher preregression hitrate than others.
For example:
Ø
An SRR7 shooter
betting the Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9) and optimally regressing his bets after just
one paying hit; will require
about 2300 hands in order to double his abovenoted bankroll.
Ø
Meanwhile the same
shooter using the AllAcross (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) wager will only require
just under 1500 advantageplay hands to accomplish the same thing since the
AllAcross
wager at this skilllevel
permits two hits at the initial preregression largewager before being
optimally reduced to a
smaller one; while the Insidebet demands an optimal regression after just
one hit for the SRR7 skilllevel.
Ø
Likewise, the SRR8
shooter who bets the AnythingBut7 Iron Cross regression will need to
throw about 470 hands to double
his recommended bankroll, but will only require about 80 hands
to double his money if he sticks
to a lessencompassing wager like Placebetting the 6 and 8.
Ø
The added benefit
for that shooter using an ISR on the Placebet 6 & 8, is that he can also afford
to start with a much smaller overall bankroll than that required
by the Iron Cross wager even
though his current skilllevel is
exactly the same no matter what he bets on.
Ø
In this case he’d
want to have a total gaming bankroll of just $1600 in order to
properly take
advantage of his shooting skills
for a 2:1 regression on the Placebet 6 and 8 ($12 each
on the
6 and 8, regressed
down to $6 each); but he’d need an optimal starting bankroll of almost
$4000 if he
wanted to do the same 2:1 regression on the Iron Cross ($44 IC regressed down
to
$22 IC).
Why Require So Much of a Total Bankroll If We Can Double Our Money So
Quickly?
When we look at combining our current
diceinfluencing talents with an Initial Steep Regression, we soon
discover just how quickly it can double our
bankroll if we trigger the betregression at the optimal time…
but only if we are properly financed to begin
with.
The reason it is critically important to have an
adequatelysized bankroll in the first place, is because
not every hand we throw will be a winner, and
there could very well be periods when we make major
total gaming bankroll drawdowns.
If you try to make do with less, you could
possibly succeed, but more likely you’ll go down the same
path of ruin that so many
skilledbutunderfunded players before you ventured.
When you have a validated edge over the house,
it will prevail, but you have to have the sufficient funds
in order to weather the volatility swings that
inevitably occur along the way.
You can be a crackshot with the dice, but if you don’t have the
bankrollammo; you aren’t l
ikely going to hit ANY of your wintargets.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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