Streaks, Trends and Opportunity
In Part III we looked at several methods that will assist you in finding more streaks, more often.
Streaks and trends are simply the places and times when the dice are heading in such a discernable direction that they make attractive betting opportunities.
While it is entirely possible that the very next roll will bring an abrupt end to that run, the strength of the movement in that particular direction is compelling enough to warrant a bet.
The idea behind this series of articles is to help you find more ways to increase the likelihood of encountering the extremes of the craps-spectrum where the most reliable amounts of money can be made.
With that in mind, let’s look at a few more ways that the savvy Trend-Spotter finds the pot ‘o gold hot and cold ends of the craps-rainbow:
Understanding the Ebb and Flow
The skilled Trend-Spotter understands that there is a certain ebb and flow to the cycles that the dice go through. It is this naturally occurring flow or rhythm that he looks for. You’ll have a few streaks in one direction or the other, interspersed with long stretches of no discernable tendency (choppy conditions).
The Trend-Spotter avoids the middle-ground choppiness and instead seeks out the more radical, and more profitable, extreme stages of the cycle.
Watch the Stickman
Watch the stickman at other tables, so that you’ll be able to keep track of where the shooter is at, on that particular game. If the stickman continues to deliver the dice to the same player time and time again, even if you aren’t hearing any roars from that crowd, it might be worth a closer look. Just part a chip (cheque) to save your space at your current table and wander over for a quick look to confirm or refute your suspicion.
Read My Lips
In a noisy casino, especially if there are multiple craps tables and nearby slot machines, there is a lot of background noise. If the stickman seems to be moving the dice to the same player as mentioned in the above suggestion, then you may want to watch his mouth as he makes the dice calls. That will help filter out the background noise, and enable you to decipher exactly what is being rolled at that particular table. Again, you are looking for clues as to exactly what is happening, and whether they are worthy betting situations.
The Call of the Wild
Have you ever been at a cold-table, and you hear a celebratory roar go up at another table. All the players will look up, but stay exactly where they are. A few minutes later, another roar will be heard from the same table. The players at the cold-table will murmur, and look over, but they’ll stay glued to their current “this-table-sure-is-cold-and-I’m-losing-my-ass” spots.
Soon after, yet another roar is heard from the “hot” table, and the cold-table grumbling increases. You’ll often hear the “I-guess-we’re-at-the-wrong-table” lament, but nobody does anything about it. They stand in place like a deer caught in the bright headlight shine of an on-rushing freight train. Twenty minutes later, you’ll hear the hearty and enthusiastic round of applause that signals the end of the hand. It’s easy to see it from your vantage point at the cold table. It may be easy to see, but it sure is hard to stomach.
You can wait at your current table for a hot streak to come along, and it eventually will. However, your ammo-bay may be out of bullets (pocket empty of money) by the time that it does. In the meantime, you passed up a perfectly good and exploitable hand at another table.
Some players from the now-not-so-hot table will drift over to tell you and their compadrés about the great roll that just ended. They’ll show the black and purple chips that they colored-out and ask why you stayed at your current “iceberg”.
When the “call of the hot and wild” tables let you know that a great streak is in-season, then it’s time to take careful aim for a shot at a decent profit. Don’t let inertia hold you back.
Trend-Spotters find the streaks that pay, and avoid the choppiness that kills everyone else’s bankroll.
If you see the Pit–Bulls start to pay additional attention to a nearby table, it could be because the table is starting to get some semi-serious betting action on it. Now it might just be that a high-roller has started wagering, but it could also be that one or more players have ratcheted up their bets to a level where casino-management want to have extra “eyes” on the game.
In addition, it could be that the number and complexity of the bets on that particular layout have increased. If for example, there are a lot of Prop bets being made, and being PAID, it could mean that there is a betting opportunity in the offing.
If the pit is showing interest in a particular table, then maybe you should too.
“I’m Not Waving to Say Hello”
Some Trend-Spotters will work out a number of signals with their buddies to indicate when a trend looks like it is going to turn into a bettable streak.
Sometimes a simple wave of the hand to either come or stay, or a nod of the head (in the affirmative) or a shake of the head (in the negative), or even a simple thumbs-up or thumbs-down will suffice to indicate a trend, and to signal a potential near-term, but not immediate, betting opportunity.
Of course when your buddy starts jumping up and down and waving his arms excitedly, he’s either telling you to abandon your current spot and get over to his table because the time is right, or perhaps he accidentally dropped a lit cigar down his pants. In either case, it’s probably worth a walk over there to check things out.
Even if you don’t hear any roars of approval; just a slightly elevated murmur or din from the collective crowd at a table may indicate that good things are finally starting to happen. It could be the start of something good, so it warrants a little more attention. If the faint hubbub increases, then most Trend-Spotters use that as a “trigger” that initiates their entry into the game.
Where there is a “buzz in the air” there is usually opportunity.
When it Goes From Ice-Cold to Flame-Hot
There is an interesting phenomenon that you will often encounter at a craps table after a very long cold streak. When it finally starts to warm up or even get hot, the Pass-Line players will be non-plussed, bewildered and not at all impressed with good results, simply because they have suffered steady losses for such a long time.
They are so shell-shocked and numbed by their previous bankroll-wounds that they fail to find almost any joy in their current success. They get so gun-shy after losing most of their buy-in, that they fail to take advantage of the great streak when it finally does come along. At that point, they are usually betting very timidly and very lightly so that when they do finally win, it is barely anything to get excited or keyed-up about.
What Will It Take To Convince You?
I’ve often joined an ice-cold table and proceeded to throw four, five or even six Pass-Line Point-winners in a row before my bankroll-dented table-mates started to genuinely enjoy themselves. Since they have such big money-chasms to dig themselves out of, it takes a lot of renewed winning to get them feeling positively enthused again.
Sometimes I feel like asking them, “What will it take to convince you that this is a good hand?” I suppose the better question would be, “What will it take to get you to make some real bets to take advantage of this?”
Great hands don’t come along that often, especially if you are relying on random-rollers to get the job done. So when it does happen, why are most people so skeptical of it, and why do so many fail to take advantage of it? I know that we just answered that question, but to my mind, that has got to be totally frustrating for them to endure time after time.
An astute Trend-Spotter understands that particular phenomenon, and will look for the SUBTLE changes in the mood of a distant or nearby table. You have to remember that he wants to spot and track a trend BEFORE everyone else jams up the table if it does get fiery hot. He is a keen observer of the subtle nuances that indicate a change in table-temperature.
By refusing to get slashed and hacked by choppy conditions, the Trend-Spotter is able to surf from trend to trend and streak to streak while enduring very little choppy-table damage.
Before I flesh out this factor for you, I will add a cautionary note that in some places, the use of a cell phone is strictly prohibited. In others, you aren’t supposed to use them while you are at the actual gaming-tables, but simply stepping away is generally accepted. In some casinos, they have designated cell-phone areas that are near to cell-boosters or skip-antennas that make signal-strength stronger. In some casinos they are permitted everywhere except for the Sports book where they are strictly forbidden.
As I mentioned in Part II of this series, there are a number of Trend-Spotters who belong to an informal cell phone network of players. If one guy sees a good hand developing, he’ll get on the phone and alert a couple of his buddies. They in turn, each call a few others on the list. Soon thereafter, a horde of their buddies come a running with handfuls of ready-to-bet cash.
If you can catch the good streaks and ignore all of the others, then a savvy player can make huge amounts of money nearly every single day of the year.
How Precision-Shooters Fit into the Equation
As I mentioned in Part II, a lot of Trend-Spotters aren’t really interested in Precision-Shooters so much as they are interested in the actual dice-outcomes, and how they fit in and support an emerging trend or streak. To that end, Precision-Shooting certainly DOES fit into their arsenal.
The savvy Trend-Spotter recognizes that certain players have consistently long rolls. While they understand that skilled shooters don’t have long hands every time that they pick up the dice, they also understand that skilled Precision-Shooters have many, many more long hands than everyone else. That is enough motivation to garner their continuing interest. The more reliably that someone throws, the more likely they are to string together truly great hands many more times, and much more often than random-rollers.
Armed with the knowledge that certain players can throw the dice with an enhanced level of skill, the Trend-Spotter will watch the tables where known Precision-Shooters are playing. As the dice cycle around to those particular players, the Trend-Spotter will observe the game with much closer attention. Again, if he sees that the dice setter is getting into a shooting rhythm; then he’ll scoot over for a closer look. If his suspicions are confirmed, he has the ready-cash to throw into the game for a quick profit.
The knowledgeable Trend-Spotter isn’t looking for the mythical never-ending hand. He is simply looking for a junction in the game-cycle when the moon, the sun and the stars are aligned for a very short time. That is enough of an opportunity for him to make some money.
A Trend-Spotter is able to get into the game on an up or down trend, get a profit from some intelligently wagered bets, and get out before the chop-monster settles in and attempts to reclaim any hard-earned revenue.
Still to Come…
In “Part V” of this series, we’ll look at:
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor