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How To Get It, and How To Keep It A
man returning home a day early from a business trip, got into a taxi at the airport after
midnight, and while enroute to his home, asked the driver if he would be a witness, as he
suspected his wife was having an affair, and expected to catch her in the act. The
driver agreed, and they both tiptoed into the bedroom, turned on the lights pulled the
blanket back and found the wife in bed with another man. The husband put his gun to the
man's head, and the wife shouted, "Don't do it, this man has been very generous.
Who do you think paid for the Corvette I said I bought for you, and who do you think paid
for our new 42 boat
he did!" The
husband, looked over at the cab driver, and said, "What would you do in a case
like this?" The cabbie smiled, and said, "I'd cover him up before he
catches cold." The
View from Here
Lets
agree that there are very few people who make their living solely off of playing craps. Lets
further agree that there are even fewer of those full-time professionals who take the time
to write about it. Im not talking about
professional writers who publish books for a living; Im talking about professional
craps players. There
are about three dozen guys who I know that play professionally on a full-time basis (and
make outstanding amounts of money), but only about eight of them are actually even on the
internet; let alone writing anything about what it is they do. To
my mind, I have a somewhat unique vantage point from which to comment on this game. Playing at least four days if not five days per
week, all year long also gives me a unique perspective on what works best for me. Although that doesnt mean that what works
great for me, will work wonders from your game; it does give you a unique opportunity to
look at some of the things you might want to at least consider integrating into
your game-plan. It
is also important to understand that I DO NOT win all of the time. However,
when I am on the minus-side of the gaming-ledger for a session, I keep that loss to an
absolute MINIMUM, and therefore I only require a small win during the next session to pull
me back to even for the day. By
letting the small wins offset the small losses, I can use the medium to large wins as
retained earnings, and not just bragging-right victories that are immediately absorbed
into offsetting any previous deep losses. Your
SKILL determines your winnings, and your DISCIPLINE determines your losses. That
brings us to some of the additional methods that have helped me to GET the profit,
and to KEEP it. A
Unique Betting Approach
Most
savvy dicesetters agree that certain kinds of throws work great on one type of table, but
fail to deliver the goods on other types. In
other words, one toss does not suit all tables. An
example
Lets
say that my Low, Slow & Easy Toss works great on 12-foot, hard-as-rock
tables from the SL and SR 1, 2, and 3 positions; but is next to impossible to keep them
on-axis, let alone on their four primary faces when you throw that same toss from a
farther position like SL/SR 4 or 5 or from straight-out on a longer and far bouncier
table. In
that case, to compensate for the farther distance and higher bounce, you may have
to increase the trajectory and backspin so much that it hardly even resembles the
basic L, S & E Toss to any degree when taken so far out of its basic
throwing-geometry element. That
simply means that it may start out as the L, S & E, but by the time you get finished
tweaking it and adapting it to that particular table, it doesnt even resemble
anything like it started out as. In and of
itself, adapting your throw to suit a specific layout is a GOOD thing especially if you
can get your throw to conform to what the table requires in terms of good, consistent
on-axis rolling. The fact that you had to
adapt it to suit the table is fine. As long
as it works, any modifications, no matter how radical, is okay if it brings the money in. So
if we agree that one toss does not suit all tables, and that different throws (or at least
altered geometry of the same throw) is required to successfully adapt to different tables;
then can we also say that different betting-methods might sometimes be best used
only on certain tables (where we have gained a consistently profitable level of
dice-control or influence) as well? Bear
with me for a moment, and indulge my idea. Altering
Bets to Compensate for Different Tables Lets
say that you throw really well on some types of tables, but only fairly well on other
types; then isnt it a reasonably good idea to adapt your betting-methods
to suit that tables performance (or specifically, to suit your skill-level on
that table) too. If
one type of table doesnt yield the same performance characteristics to your
Precision-Shooting efforts as it does at another; then how can you expect that your
betting-methods will perform as well on the difficult-to-conquer tables
as well as they do on the easy-to-control ones? That
simply means that your bets have to be modified as much, if not more, than
your throwing technique in order to profitably survive on all the different
playing surfaces that youll encounter. Ive
been doing this altering-bets-to-compensate-for-different-tables thing for the past
six or seven years; but frankly, it was more intuitive than by design. That
is, I was using my Tables Notes (see my Shooting
Bible Part One for details on that) to determine which throwing
methods I should be using; and to a much lesser extent, which betting-methods would work
best when matched up with my various skill-levels on different types of tables. Now
let me be clear that this has NOTHING to do with some superstitious predisposition about,
Aww, I cant shoot very well on bouncy tables during afternoon sessions
especially on odd-numbered days of the month, especially if they are using green dice and
theres a female dealer on the crew, and the NY Yankees have lost more than two of
their last five home-games, and there wasnt an open parking space in the casino
garage on my favorite floor, and I accidentally tied my right shoe before I laced up my
left shoe
so my dice-throwing will probably be lousy today
so I better change my
normal betting-strategy and just put all my money on the Hopping 4s and 9s
until my luck changes mentality. Rather,
it is through the carefully constructed notes that I use to determine what works best on
which table and from what shooting position, that I base my first few throws (and bets)
on. If the rolling, bouncing, tracking and
rebound characteristics hold true to what I recorded in my Table Notes; then Ill
know that those observations are still fully valid. If
the table is reacting somewhat differently, then Ill make any appropriate change to
my throwing motion (and update those Table Notes after my session). The
point of all of this is that I will structure my bets to coincide and reflect what the
table has historically given me based in terms of how long I have traditionally rolled per
hand, and how successful I was in being able to keep the dice on-axis, and ESPECIALLY
how often I was able to generate primary-face hits at that table (or similar table-type). My
first attempts at altering-bets-to-compensate-for-different-tables was a
rudimentary thing, where if I knew I historically had relatively short-hands on this type
of layout or on that particular table; then Id use a betting-method that got the
profit off of the table a lot sooner than on tables where I have traditionally strung
together longer and more reliable performances. Sensibly,
if Ive had a good history on this type of table, and especially at the particular
table I am currently playing at; then Ill use a more aggressive wagering-approach
that witnesses a higher starting point (bet wise), a more aggressive ramping of pressed-up
bets, along with a longer exposure time to the high-value wagers. Ive
let that process evolve to the point where I can walk up to a particular table to
throw and BET with confidence instead of concern. That
way, I am better able to anticipate WHAT this table is likely to give me,
and therefore tailor a betting-plan that reflects my current skill-level on this
table-type or for this particular layout with an adapted-to-reality betting-method. Doing
so increases throwing-confidence as well as betting-method productivity. Conversely,
I wont shun or avoid tables where Ive historically lacked outstanding success. Rather, if I play there, Ill simply either
start out with a much more conservative betting-plan (until I AM able to figure out
what it takes to triumph over this layout), or I might even take a shot at it from the
Darkside. In either case, its important
that you prevent yourself from setting up self-defeating mental scenarios where you are expecting
losses before you even pick up the dice. Be
mindful that our objective is to MAKE money
and then KEEP it! If
we limit our opportunities for success; then we often set up unreasonable (and largely
irrational) circumstances, tainted justification and irrational excuses where weve
mentally eliminated way too many genuinely worthy revenue prospects
simply because
weve convinced ourselves that we will fail. Ill
let Thomas Edison sum it up: Many
of life's failures are people who did not realize how close they were to success when they
gave up. Your
Attitude About Shooting Out-of-Position
SR-1
is definitely my favorite spot to shoot from. If
given a choice, I would take it nearly every time on nearly every single table that I play
at. There are a few exceptions where SL-1 or SL-2 is my preference, but by and large,
about 73% of my money is generated from SR-1, SR-2 or SR-3.
Moreover, my on-axis, primary-face consistency from those positions is much
higher than any other group of spots around the table. Now
having said that, I can also tell you that I dont have too many qualms about playing
out of position. I
have two thoughts on this.
ü
Perfect
your craft at as many table-spots (positions) as you can.
Now that does NOT mean that you should bet the same as if you
are shooting from your favorite and most profitable table-position(s). I think we covered that subject quite well
just a minute ago. Rather, it means that you
start low and slow (betting conservatively) from different places around the layout, and
see what they produce as far as dice-outcomes are concerned. Thats
the physical part of it. Next
comes the attitude part about shooting out of position.
Do
you look forward to trying out a new spot or do you face it with fear, trepidation
and uncertainty? If
fear and anxiety override your anticipation and positive mental attitude; then that
pessimism will transfer from your brain on down to the tips of your fingers. A
bad attitude usually leads to bad dice-setting results. A
negative attitude often means a negative outcome. Unfortunately
that attitude-to-outcome link doesnt work as well in reverse when you are
thinking good thoughts. Although
a good attitude doesnt guarantee you wont get bad results; a negative attitude
almost guarantees that you will. The
second thought I have about shooting out of position is that you may find that what works
flawlessly as your best throwing-motion (control dynamics) from your favorite table-spot
may have no relevance when used from a more distant shooting position. In
other words, what works from SR-1 may not be useful from SL-7 on the same table. You have to adapt to each new spot you shoot from. Sometimes those adjustments are small, but often
times they are not so subtle.
ü
Even
though the exact same table is just as bouncy or just as hard or the backwall gives just
as much rebound; a different shooting position will often require an entirely different
kind of throw, or at least a largely altered and modified throw. In
fact, when you move to a different position at the same table, you may find that the same
dice-set throws off an entirely new set of Signature Numbers. Thats
the nature of Precision-Shooting. You
de-randomize the dice, but you also tailor your betting to what your shooting is
producing, and not the other way around. You
may be able to throw five or six or seven on-axis, primary-face 9s in a row from
SL-2, but when you bet like you are EXPECTING the same outcomes when you shoot from
straight-out at SR-6, you may be quite disappointed.
Rather, you may find that that position gives you an inordinate number of
3s or 4s. In that case, you can
bet with it, or you can lament the fact that you arent able to work your usual
back-to-back-to-back hopping parlay on the 9 that you prefer to do when standing at SL-2. But
heres the thing
ü
Sometimes
you discover AMAZING consistency and on-axis, primary-face results from shooting-positions
that youve always avoided out of fear, trepidation, unfounded bias and
mediocrity-based partiality (from more preferred shooting-spots). The
reason I bring this subject up is obvious.
Ø
You
cant always get in the shooting-position that you want.
Ø
The
more table-positions you get proficient at, the more flexible, adaptable and profitable
you will be at the various layouts you encounter.
Ø
Your
ATTITUDE has as much to do with your throwing success as any other single element
including your throwing-mechanics and toss-motion. A
good, positive attitude can keep you on the right path just as easily as a bad attitude
will lead you off of it.
Ø
The
better you are at shooting consistently from additional table-positions, the better able
youll be in GETTING the profit.
Ø
The
better your attitude is, the better able youll be as far as KEEPING the
profit as well. Need
I remind you? Your
SKILL determines your winnings, and your DISCIPLINE determines your losses. Sometimes
We Shouldnt Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth There
will be many sessions where youll build up a nice pile of profit in very short
order. In many cases, you may have only been
at the table for ten or fifteen minutes, yet youve amassed close to double your
initial buy-in.
Ø
Is
it time to go
you just got here?
Ø
Is
it time to press it up
things are going so well?
Ø
Is
it time to stash all of your buy-in and a large portion of your profit, and play with the
small remainder
and hope things continue to go your way? Sometimes
your first hand of the session will turn out to be the best hand of that session, and no
matter what you do nor how long you try for a repeat of that stellar performance you just
cant seem to pull it off. How
to deal with that? You
have to use your own play-history to determine what works best for you. For
me, if I throw an outstanding hand during my first shot with the dice, I may stick around
for one more hand (from me) to see if Ive still got the magic; but if the
profit-thrill is not still there on the second go-round, I wont stick around to
force the issue any further. For
me its a psychological thing. If
I throw a great hand
the kind that legends are built on; my own history tells me that
I likely wont be able to repeat it during the same session. Most times, when I TRY to force a
back-to-back repeat, it ends in a very short-lived Point-then-Out result. If
I get one fairly good hand per session (30+ rolls), it doesnt even have to a
mega-hand (50+ rolls) or a history-making hand (80+ rolls), because lets face it,
very few of them actually end up being hour-plus rolls; I am satisfied to accept the nice
profit that one fairly decent 30+ hand per session gives to me before moving on. A
multiple table, multiple casino hit n run raid will generally produce much
more money for me than a camped-out-at-one-table-for-a-multi-hour-marathon will. Both exercises may consume the same amount of
time, but the profit-generation is higher (by several orders of magnitude) when I can ply
my trade at multiple enterprises. My
ego doesnt NEED to try to do it again and again at the same table in a vain and
EXPENSIVE attempt to throw back-to-back mega-hands
plus I figure that theres no
need to overstay my welcome and burn the casino for too many wins in a row. In
other words, I dont look a gift horse in the mouth, and I take the winnings that
Ive earned. Its just one more way
that I am able to KEEP what I GET. Plan
Your Bets Around Your AVERAGE Hand, But Prepare for the Longer Ones Weve
talked about this before, but I want to show you some of the reasoning behind it. The
idea is to use betting-methods that will put a net-profit into your rail as quickly as
possible without exposing your bankroll to undue exposure. Your
options? Your
options of how you handle your bets are obviously almost unlimited, but for me
well,
I plan my bets around my average-length hand, but prepare myself in
case it turns out to be a long one.
Ø
We
can do that by using a Steep Regression, and waiting for ONE hit before reducing our
Place-bets to a more comfortable level, all-the-while locking up a net-profit position.
Ø
We
COULD leave our high initial-level action out there for additional hits IF
we almost NEVER throw a quick 7-Out. You
have to take a serious look at how often you throw one of those two-roll (Point-then-Out)
hands. If you establish the PL-Point and then
immediately go 7-Out lets say twice every 10 hands, then that Steep Regression
approach might work, but if you throw lets say 4 quick Point-then-Out rolls every
ten hands; then a Steep Regression may not work, and the situation will only GET WORSE if
you leave all of your un-regressed money out there in a desperate attempt to get
additional hits beyond your first paying-hit. Again,
dont let your own greed ruin a great thing.
Ø
If
a Steep Regression works constantly at the one-hit-then-reduce level, but only rarely
(once a decade) at the 30-hits-then-reduce level; then you have to find a happy medium
(somewhere in between one-hit-then-regress and thirty-hits-then-regress)
instead of structuring your betting-plan around what OCCASSIONALLY happens
versus what USUALLY happens. Therefore,
a savvy professional plans his bets around his average hand
the one he
throws most often, and NOT around the one he wishes he could throw more than
once in a lifetime. Although
this should be clear by now, its painfully obvious that some very skilled
Precision-Shooters are unnecessarily UN-profitable
not because of their shooting
but
because of their BETTING. In
saying that its a good idea to plan your bets around your average hand, I can
quickly add that it is actually ideal to plan your betting around an expected-roll-length
that is slightly LESS than your average hand.
That way, youll have extracted most (but not all) of your wagers out
of harms way (off of the table), but more importantly youll have extracted a good
chunk of locked-in profit a roll or two BEFORE you reach your average
ending point. Ideal
bet-structuring means that youll make good money off of your average hands,
but still keeps enough money in the game (on the layout) so that if your hand continues
past that norm; then you (and your still-active wagers) will be ideally positioned to take
advantage of an extended roll.
Ø
If
you take ALL of your wagers off the table at or near the end of your average roll-length
of say 10-rolls, then many shooters inadvertently turn their shooting-skill expectancy
into a self-fulfilling prophecy. That is, by
taking your bets off the table or turning them off at the 10-roll mark; your body and mind
will let out a collective sigh which also reduces your shooting-focus and concentration at
the same time. At that point its little
wonder that the 7-Out shows up within the next roll or two. Instead
of setting myself up for self-fulfilling failure, I would rather structure my bets
for continued and expected success. In
which case, I like to keep at least some money in action.
Ø
My
thought-process is that once Ive reached my average roll-length and securely locked
in a profit, it is not the time to put my hands in the air and surrender (by taking down
or turning off my bets). Instead, I look at
this opportunity as a second-stage launch-platform from which
medium
long
jumbo
and mega-hands are ignited.
Ø
In
that case, I NEED to have money in action, and I WANT to get fairly
aggressive from point forward
so I re-invest a portion of my newly-inflowing income
(from my still-active bets) to fuel even larger wagers that will spin off even
more gold and provide EVEN MORE rocket-fuel afterburner boost to my
still-winning bets.
Ø
The
whole concept behind arranging your bets to suit your average-length roll; is to get the
net-profit off of the table as quickly as possible, but to afford you the equal
opportunity to continue profiting if the hand lasts past your average.
The idea is that you are keenly positioned to take maximum advantage of it when it
happens, yet be in the confidant position that youve already locked in a profit if
it doesnt.
Ø
Long
rolls do you no good if you dont have money on them.
Bets on the wrong numbers do you no good if they are not the ones that are
repeating over and over again. It
makes perfect sense for the talented Precision-Shooter to plan his bets around that
philosophy, yet many players structure their bets on the HOPE that their rolls will
surpass their average-length (without having any regard to locking in an early profit in
case it doesnt).
Ø
Plan
your bets around one or two rolls LESS than your average.
Ø
Lock-in
a profit BEFORE you reach your average roll-length threshold.
Ø
Keep
some money on currently active Signature Numbers even when you get to or past your
average roll-length hand.
Ø
Use
a portion of subsequent winning-bet cash-flow to fuel increased or wider-spread wagers.
Ø
Make
real net-profit from all but your shortest of rolls, but structurally
prepare a launching-pad for your bets in the event of a medium to long hand. If
you limit your expectations, you limit your opportunities. Good Luck
& Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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