Is There Unknown Value
in Certain Types of Bets?
As diceinfluencers, are we prone to
overlook certain bettingopportunities because of what
we THINK we know about them?
If you were to ask a group of DI advantageplayers to rate the risk/return
ratio of various
multinumber globalbets like Inside,
Across, Outside, Even and the Iron Cross; most
would probably rate the Insidebet as
offering the best returnoninvestment, while the Iron
Cross would mostly be burdened with the
title of worst among the lot.
If you consider any of the globalbets in
the traditional context of returnoninvestment per
paying hit; then it’s easy to
see why some multinumber bets are held in far higher esteem
than others.
Take a look:
Insidebet
Includes Placebets on the 5, 6, 8,
and 9
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.00
PerHit ReturnonInvestment
31.8%
Acrossbet
Includes Placebets on the 4, 5, 6,
8, 9, and 10
Basic cost:
$32.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.50
PerHit ReturnonInvestment
23.4%
Outsidebet
Includes Placebets on the 4, 5, 9, and 10
Basic cost:
$20.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.86
PerHit ReturnonInvestment
39.3%
EvenNumber bet
Includes Placebets on the 4, 6, 8, and 10
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.75
PerHit ReturnonInvestment
35.2%
IronCross (Anything
but 7)
Includes Placebets on the 5, 6, and 8,
plus a Fieldbet
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$4.10
PerHit ReturnonInvestment
18.6%
So, when appraised from a
traditional returnoninvestmentperhit
point of view; these global
bets are ranked as follows:
Outside 39.3%
EvenNumber 35.2%
Inside 31.8%
Across 23.4%
IronCross 18.6%
But is that the real story and is
perhit R.O.I. the best indicator of their potential in the hands of
a diceinfluencer?
Are we seeing the full potential of each of those bets, and is there
possibly any latent attributes
that are hiding within the seemingly
lackluster performance of globalbets like the IronCross or
AllAcross wager?
I think there is.
One of the metrics that diceinfluencers use to measure success is their
SevenstoRolls
Ratio (SRR), which represents your ability
to alter the ratio between 7’s and non7 outcomes.
Our SRR also tells us how long, on
average, our Pointcycle will generally last before we
7Out.
So an SRR7 means that our
pointcycle will generally last for an average of seven rolls before
the 7Out ends it; and a SevenstoRoll
Ratio of 1:8 means that our pointcycle will usually last
an average of eight rolls.
Another metric that savvy dicesetter’s use to figure out how many
payinghits their wagers
will generally enjoy before they throw a
rollending 7Out is the expected
hitsperhand for a
given bettype.
This is where things get real interesting.
As your SRRrate increases and the number of 7’s that you throw
decreases; the non7’s
that replace those reducedappearance 7’s
is where the bulk of your advantage over the
house comes from.
In my Regression Avoids Depression
series, I’ve codified precisely how the perroll probabilityrate for a
given bet changes in lockstep with the SRR.
There are some excellent pieces of
rolltracking and edgedetermining software out there.
Maddog’s BoneTracker v5.0 is one
that I heartily endorse, not only because DiceTool has
now been fully integrated into it; but more
importantly, because it shows you the exact hitrate
ratio at which you are currently throwing
most of the globalbets that we’re talking about today.
So obviously you can and should use that
percentage to determine exactly where your multi
number global bet stands in relation to
it’s true returnoninvestment over your entire point
cycle duration instead of
just on a perroll basis.
But even without software like that, it is important to understand that your
perhit return
oninvestment is not the beall and endall
of sustainable moneymaking. Rather, you also have
to look at how frequently your
chosen wagers are likely to hit during a given average point
cycle and figure out if the total
rateofreturn is to your satisfaction or whether a better skill
matchedtoadvantage bettingregimen is
called for.
When you factor your expected pointcycle hitrate for these globalbets
against their
weighted payouts; you gain a whole new
perspective and perhaps even a whole new respect
for some of the globaltype bets that have
long been looked down upon.
Let me show you what I mean.
Expected overall hitrate:
Inside 50.0%
Across 66.6%
Outside 38.9%
EvenNumber 44.4%
IronCross 83.3%
When we know a players SRRrate, we
know how long his average pointcycle will last, so we
can immediately determine how efficient
each one of these globalbets are. That is, we
can determine
how well each of these globalbets utilizes each
roll within a players
pointcycle.
When we do that, the resultant overall expected hitrate/pointcycle offers
a glimpse at what may
be some otherwise overlooked potential.
Take a look:
Inside
18 outcomes out of 30 non7’s =
60.0% pc hit rate
Across
24 outcomes out of 30 non7’s =
80.0% pc hit rate
Outside
14 outcomes out of 30 non7’s =
46.7% pc hit rate
Even
16 outcomes out of 30 non7’s =
53.3% pc hit rate
IronCross
30 outcomes out of 30 non7’s =
100.0% pc hit rate
If we take a players pointcycle SRR
and multiply it by these hitrate figures, we can determine
how many times you are likely to hit each
of these globalbets during your pointcycle and
therefore determine how netprofitable each
multinumber bet is likely to be.
In other words, if you really want to test the efficiency of your bets, you
not only have to look at
their returnoninvestment on a perhit
basis; but you have to consider their total overall return
oninvestment over the entire expected
duration of your pointcycle.
Now admittedly this is a simplification to illustrate how rateofreturn
when measured on a per
hit basis does not tell the whole
advantageplay story, and obviously you’ll be best served by
using the abovenoted software to verify
your particular edge; but the following example
illustrates my point quite nicely.
When you multiply a given SRRrate
by the expected pointcycle hitrate you determine how
many paying hits each SRR is expected to
generate during its average pointcycle.
SRR7 HitsperPC Gross
Rev/NetProfit ROI/hand
Inside 4.2
$29.40 $7.40
33.6%
Across 5.6
$42.00 $10.00
31.3%
Outside 3.3
$25.94 $5.94
29.7%
Even 3.7
$28.68 $6.68
30.4%
IronCross 7.0
$28.70 $6.70
30.5%
SRR8 HitsperPC Gross
Rev/NetProfit ROI/hand
Inside 4.8
$33.60 $11.60
52.7%
Across 6.4
$48.00 $16.00
50.0%
Outside 3.7
$29.08 $9.08
45.4%
Even 4.3
$33.32 $11.32
51.5%
IronCross 8.0
$32.80 $10.80
49.1%
SRR9 HitsperPC Gross
Rev/NetProfit ROI/hand
Inside 5.4
$37.80 $15.80
71.8%
Across 7.2
$54.00 $22.00
68.8%
Outside 4.2
$33.01 $13.01
65.1%
Even 4.8
$37.20 $15.20
69.1%
IronCross 9.0
$36.90 $14.90
67.7%
When you look at each of these
globalbets with an openminded perspective, the bets that
most people ‘perceive’ to be subpar
when compared to the moreaccepted traditional
multinumber wagers; you'll find that some
are in fact not only in the same league, but they’re
also pretty much on par with their more
timehonored and revered brethren.
So, Is There Unknown Value in Certain Types
of Bets?
That’s entirely up to you to decide, but it seems to me that some of them
aren’t quite as ‘ugly’
as they’ve been portrayed as being by some
fellow players who really should know better.
When it comes to rejecting certain bettingmethods out of hand; you may want
to look a little
deeper than to blindly accept what you’ve
always been taught to believe.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the
Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
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