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How
To Get THERE from HERE
Part VII Some
things about successful Precision-Shooting are SO obvious that its actually
easy to overlook them and forget about applying them when the dice are in our hand. That
brings us to the whole Precision-Shooting concept of living in the moment, while shooting
and betting ONLY the present tense. In
a nutshell, it means
Ø
Putting
aside the stuff that has come before. While
we have to learn from our previous mistakes
we cannot dwell on them.
Ø
Equally,
we cannot bank on our recently outstanding performances as a guarantee that we will do
just as well during this session.
Ø
The
only thing that matters is our very next here and now throw of the dice.
Ø
Your
previous throw that you made just a few seconds ago has come and gone. The future is right here and right now in your
very next toss. Yesterdays or last weeks or
even last months roll is ancient history, and means nothing at this precise moment.
Ø
The
only thing that matters is what you are doing RIGHT NOW while the dice are in your
hand.
Ø
Dont
worry about how any of this fits into your SRR or your On-Axis Percentage or your
Signature-Number hierarchy; just focus on the task at hand.
Ø
The
dice are in your hand, its what you do with them right now on the very next roll
that matters.
Ø
Each
roll stands on its own. Each roll is
independent, but it is how we string them together and how we bet on them that determines
our ultimate profitability. For that reason,
the very next toss is where your total focus is concentrated.
Ø
When
that throw is complete, you will take the informational feedback that you gleaned from
that one and transfer it to or appropriately modify it for the very next throw. At that moment, your next toss again becomes THE throw.
Ø
As
you make each subsequent throw, it fits into the totality of your current hand. Again, the very next throw is the only one that
matters. You therefore take it one roll at a
time, and then make adjustments (betting-wise and mechanics-wise) before making each
subsequent toss.
Ø
If
you make a good one, you get to keep the dice
if you make a bad one, your current
hand is over
THEN youll have plenty of time to dwell on what you did
right
what you did wrong
what you would do differently next time
and what
you wouldnt change a bit.
Ø
When
you do that end-of-hand self-appraisal, you learn to focus-in very quickly on your
Precision-Shooting and Precision-BETTING strengths, weaknesses, threats and
opportunities.
Ø
When
you live in the present-tense of each and every roll; you quickly realize that your very
next throw is the only thing that will let you get to the next one after that
and the
one after that
and the one after that, etc.
Ø
Likewise,
youll begin to look at your bets in a more objective way. For those wagers to work, they have to fit into
the dice-results that you are throwing. Therefore,
a savvy player is always re-evaluating his bets in terms of their likely
prospects-for-profit or liability-for-losing. I
regard each and every roll as a fresh new profit opportunity. If
you are interested in reading a little more about my every-roll mindset, I would
kindly direct you to How To Get THERE From HERE - Part One. Track
Your Bet-Decision Win-Ratio Let
me ask you this: How
many of your bet-decisions turn out to be right? That
is, how many of your bets turn out to be NET-winners? Is
it 8 out of 10, 5 out of 10, 6 out of 20, or better or worse? The
reason I ask, is because its important that you give yourself credit for the
right decisions that you make, and equally important that you understand and learn from
and improve upon your decisions that turn out to be wrong. When
it comes to bet-decisions, it almost always makes the difference between profit and loss. What am I saying, the bet-decisions you make
ARE the difference between profit and loss. We
track our rolls, we track our Sevens-to-Rolls ratio, we track our Signature-Numbers, we
track our On-Axis percentages, and our Box Numbers-to-Rolls ratio; but all of that is on
the Precision-Shooting side of the equation. What
about the Precision-Betting side of the equation? So,
Ill ask you again: How
many of your betting decisions are right, and how many are wrong? Suppose
we were able to make one additional correct choice
out of every ten or twenty decisions that we have to make as far as our betting is
concerned. Would
that mean the difference between a loss and a profit?
Would
it mean the difference between a break-even session and a healthy profit? Would
it mean the difference between profit and P R O F I T ? Its
vitally important to look at your whole bet-decision process with a light that perhaps you
havent shone on it before. Keep
It Simple
I
could get into all sorts of exotic formulas and use all kinds of analogies by
explaining how math sometimes has to figure into things even when we dont want it
to. I
could use historical references and explain how math first helped man to fly, otherwise
wed still be flapping our arms in a vain attempt to ignore the math of the entire
notion of flight; but Im not going to. Rather,
Im going to keep this simple. If
you keep track of the number of throws that you make during each hand; then use the same
method (or something very similar) to keep track of the number of individual bets that you
make, and the number of times you are able to collect on them. Even
if you make five separate bets, and only one of them makes a payoff six times over;
well still count that as five decisions and six wins (correct decisional choices). Yes, that means that you can have a
better-than-100% bet-decision ratio, but it also means that the more bets that you have on
the layout
the more correct decisions or repeating throws that youll have to
make. Obviously
this an over-simplistic approach in terms of getting you to look at the number of bets
that you are making versus the number of times they turn out to be proven to be the RIGHT
decision when they are activated; but I want you to get in the habit of gauging whether or
not you are making the right decisions at the right time. As
you get used to keeping track of how often you are making the right choices, youll
become more objective in your bet-making process. Clearly,
most players will make much-needed improvements to this most rudimentary of
decision-yardsticks as they get better at appraising a potential
wagering-opportunity
and so they should. The
goal of course is to make you look at all of your bets with a critical eye as to whether
they are in the best interests of you and your bankroll; or whether they merely satisfy
your thirst for risk-taking, and gambling action. Again,
its a simple process, but I want you to start getting into the habit of soberly
asking yourself whether this bet or that bet is the RIGHT bet, and whether it is a
likely profit-maker or a bankroll-sapper. Precision-Shooting
takes a high-measure of brutal honesty. If a
bet is a NET-contributor; then it has a place of honor, and should be constantly
re-appraised to determine whether even MORE wagering-weight should be placed upon it. If a bet isnt a NET-contributor to
your shooting-and-betting regimen; then it probably has no place in there. That
is one of the ways to determine where your money should be concentrated on
or where it should be excluded from. Making
constant re-evaluations about where your bets are placed, and when and for how long they
are exposed there; determines for the most part, whether or not you will likely come out
of each shooting opportunity with more money than you went into it with. Tracking
your bet-decisions Win-ratio helps you develop a keener sense of where your money is going
to and where your profit is coming from. An
Advantage-Player With A DIS-Advantaged Bankroll Your
bankroll determines how big of a bet you should have out on the table, and also indicates
the amount of bet-spread you can allow yourself to have. Many
players write in to ask why I dont suggest more low-budget, low-bankroll
betting-methods. The answer is clear, or at
least it SHOULD be clear after reading my 200 or so articles
If
you have an insufficient bankroll, then you shouldnt be in a casino in the first
place. The
money that it takes to make sustainable profit (with the lows of losing and the highs of
winning) with the type and size of bets that Ive laid out and contemplated in these
articles
IS SUBSTANTIAL!
Ø
Yes,
many have tried to do it with lesser money, and many, in fact most, have
failed due in large part to their undersized bankroll.
Ø
Even
with adequate skill, an under-funded betting-pot is not likely to weather the winds,
storms and occasional squalls that come along even for the best of us.
Ø
To
get through that inclement weather and sail through to calmer and more profitable waters,
you NEED a sufficient bankroll. There are
some that say you dont, but frankly they dont know what theyre talking
about. It
is critical to have a sufficient bankroll BEFORE you attempt to take your Practice Rig
skills to the real-world layouts. When
I read about the tiny bankrolls that some players venture forth with, it's little wonder
that they get the mileage out of their skills that they do. Please understand that I'm not
taking a swipe at anyone with a small bankroll...in fact, it's just the opposite.
Ø
A
small session-bankroll will by its very nature, enforce a very low Loss-Limit.
Ø
Unfortunately
a small bankroll is equally unforgiving of even tiny Precision-Shooting flaws or
betting mistakes.
Ø
In
that way, it is difficult for a short-stacked player to make a comeback from any shooting
or betting defects that may show up early in his session.
Ø
Equally,
a small bankroll often makes a very talented player forego most, if not all of the profit
that his skillful shooting SHOULD BE producing, simply because to his mind, he can't
afford to venture a larger percentage of an already too-small bankroll.
Ø
In
general, a "no-room-for-ANY-mistakes" bankroll, places undue stress (and
often unrealistic profit expectations) on even the most talented, but under-funded
players. Most knowledgeable BJ players know this, yet too many savvy dice-gurus
encourage others who aren't as fortunately-banked, to try to make do with insufficient
funds. As
a result, I think an insufficient bankroll is one of the major contributing factors to
the high percentage of players who try dicesetting, and in fact validate a
Precision-Shooting advantage for themselves; yet tap-out their bankroll (and leave the
game entirely) before they are able to turn that D-I advantage into consistent profit. Factoring
in Bet-Levels and Bet-Spreads
When
your shooting isn't up to par, then your bet-levels
(the amount of money you have on any singular bet) and your bet-spread
(the number of total bets that you have "spread" on the layout) should be at an
absolute minimum. That way, when your shooting IS GOOD, you don't have as big of a
hole to dig yourself out of before getting back to break-even for the session or day or
week or month or year or even the decade for that matter. A
HUGE part of successful advantage-play is to limit your losses, while at the same time
giving your winnings enough freedom to generate even more of the same. Player-Advantage
Isnt Constant, So You Cant Bet Like It Is As
we looked at in Part
Five of this series, there
are some aspects of the professional card-counters approach that we CAN adopt and
some that we CAN'T (or at least shouldn't). What
we CAN adopt is to bet it up when we have the advantage.
The problem is we often mis-define what our advantage is, or at least WHEN
it is pertinent. Yes,
as Precision-Shooters we usually have the advantage when we shoot; so does that mean we
should get aggressive EVERY TIME we have the dice just like a pro-counter
increases his bet every time the count is high? NO
we should not! A
BJ player gets the cards delivered to him. He doesn't shuffle or deal...he waits for
the advantage, by way of a high-count, to come to him. For
a P-S'er, we have to MAKE our own advantage...it isn't delivered to us by the house.
In that case, we don't ALWAYS have the advantage because our shooting isn't ALWAYS
good, so our betting shouldn't be structured like the advantage is always there...because
it isn't. Instead,
we WAIT until our shooting-edge is re-validated (by our current results), especially for
the first hand, of the first session of the first day of play...and THEN we can
start betting it up. To do so before we re-verify our player-advantage is to GAMBLE
in a way that is actually worse than betting on a random-roller. How
and why can it be worse than a wagering on a R-R? Well,
a random-roller doesn't have any illusions about having an advantage (or at least he SHOULDN'T
have any baseless illusions), but a P-S'er has confirmed that he indeed DOES have
an advantage, and therefore he often believes that hell almost ALWAYS have the
advantage when he picks up the dice...and so he mistakenly bets like that advantage is
always there. By mistakenly shifting his bets
into high gear before the revs of his dice-shooting engine are high enough to sustain the
increased burden; he unexpectedly flames out (shuts down) any chance of a current-hand
profit. In
doing so, he fails to understand that the count in BJ isn't always high, and likewise, a
Precision-Shooters skill isn't always at it peak...so our betting shouldn't reflect the
fact that we think it always is. Why
So Many Cautions?
It
would seem that Im always cautioning you not to get carried away with your betting
until you have a valid shooting-advantage that is right in front of you. I
hope the reason is clear, but Ill repeat it again in case it isnt. I
dont want you getting carried away BECAUSE of your betting. The opportunities will occur often enough and with
enough ferocity, that you dont have to force your wins. Your SHOOTING-consistency has to develop BEFORE you can expect PROFIT-consistency; so you cant bet like every hand that you
throw will be THE one. Instead,
we first zone in our shooting, and when our skills are clearly showing an appropriate
betting-opportunity; then we pounce. A
quick review of Part
Six in this series will help you maintain that equilibrium in the Too
Early or Too Late balancing act. Close
to Break-Even
Often Leads to Catastrophic Losses
Staging
a comeback after a huge loss, and being within a couple of bucks of your original buy-in
often marks the point where many players begin another precipitous descent right back into
the bankroll-abyss. 95%
of skilled Precision-Shooters will readily admit that they have been in this
position...the other 5% are liars. It's
so difficult for our egos to accept a small $5 or $10 or $20 loss, especially after
staging a near-miraculous comeback during an extended session. We get within a couple of
bucks of recapturing our buy-in, yet instead of leaving the table with a tiny loss; we'll
willingly lose back nearly all of it in a vain attempt to recapture every last nickel. Many
players seem to have the attitude that they HAVE TO get every cent back from every
session, and they are willing to sacrifice EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR that they have, in
unsuccessfully attempting to do so. Unfortunately,
most of them will fail in that pursuit; yet they will do the same thing again and again,
session after session after session. It
isn't the house-edge or game-volatility that grinds a player into casino dust...it is
ego-driven greed. I
have AMPLE first-hand knowledge of this, so I can
speak with a high degree of authority on this matter. Most
players get so buoyed up by the fact that theyve staged a comeback, that when they
get so close to their original buy-in point, they start to relax too much and subsequently
let down their guard. Further,
they know that theyve managed to make one miraculous comeback; surely they can
manage another. Its almost like an
infantile response of building up a little house of toys blocks, only to intentionally
knock it over as soon as its done. This
childish omnipotent feeling often rears its head at the worst time
and
therefore leads us directly into a bankroll meltdown from which we are unable to launch
another successful recovery. In
most cases, a huge and concerted recovery is rightfully followed by a sigh of
relief
a well-deserved mental unwinding
and an overall exhalation of focused
stress. That is probably the worst
time (other than chasing a loss) to be putting more money on the table. Its
time for a break
youve earned it
you deserve it
and your bankroll
requires it. Guys,
if you take any one of these individual ideas and apply them to your game, you may see a
measurable difference
but when you apply ALL of them in concert with each
other
THEN youll see a clearer path of how to get from here to THERE! Good Luck &
Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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