
You
Can’t Shine a CowPatty…or CAN You? For
some players, it takes a paradigm shift to go from what they thought they knew about the
game back when they were randomrollers, to what they know now as advantageplay
PrecisionShooters. I’ll
give you an example. Ø
Most
every craps book on the market paints the Fieldbet as a bad wager. Ø
For
randomrollers, the house holds a 5.56% advantage over them. Even in casinos where the Field12 gets paid at
3:1, the houseedge is still 2.78%. Ø
Though
the Field covers seven numbers (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 12), and there are 16outof36
randomoutcomes which cover them; it is the other nonField numbers (5, 6, 7, and
8) with their 20outof36 randomoccurrences that validates that “bad bet”
designation for random shooters. However,
knowledgeable PrecisionShooters understand that profitable diceinfluencing is all about
overcoming the houseedge…and actually turning it into a player’s
advantage. So
the question becomes, “Can it be done on the Field, and if so, how good of a
shooter do you have to be to make the Fieldbet profitable?” The
answer is, “Yes, it can be done, and it only takes very
modest diceinfluencing skills to do it”. The
X6 Set / FieldBet Combination For
most intermediateskilled X6 set shooters, the biggest frustration is dealing with all
the nonpaying trash numbers that the CrossedSixes set throws off during a hand. For
me, I see that X6 set frustration more as a superb profitmaking opportunity.
Ø
What
if you could use the Fieldbet as your MAIN wager and your MAIN
diceinfluencing income source?
Ø
What
if you could use the nonField 5, 6, and 8 outcomes simply as supporting cast members who
prop up the use and utility of your Field income without unduly diluting it? If
you knew the Fieldbet could produce outstanding returns even at a low onaxis percentage,
would you consider using it? Defining
Your Advantage Suppose
for a moment that you were able to generally keep the X6 diceset onaxis about 55% of
the time. Is
that good enough to justify going up against such a highvig bet like the Field? Let’s
have a look:
I
want to thank ACDOC and Maddog for graciously providing the graphs you see here. The
leftmost bars on this graph represent a randomroller.
The first thing you’ll see is that no matter what bet he makes, the
expectation remains on the negativeside of the earnings line. The
first real glimmer of hope is when either a worsethanrandom or betterthanrandom
axialmaintenance starts to take hold. Not
surprisingly, the first bet that even starts to make sense for the X6 user is the
Fieldbet. You’ll
notice too that the Fieldbet is the ONLY rightside bet in that group which makes
sense for the X6 user until he reaches the 55% onaxis level of consistency. Up until that point, all of the other
“traditional” bets like the PassLine, Comewagering and Placebetting, ALL
remain in negativeexpectation territory.
Ø
Now
the first thing that comes to my mind is, “If your onaxis percentage
ISN’T 55% or better; then why the heck are you still using the X6 diceset?”
Ø
However,
the second thing that comes to my mind when I look at this chart is, “Why the
heck is everyone in the diceinfluencing community so down on the Fieldbet especially in
light of the fact that so many people blindly follow the X6 set use, but they don’t
capitalize on its very strengths?” It’s
only after I am able to compose myself at the seeming incredulity of the situation that I
get to my third thought about the X6 users who have achieved around the 55% O/A
threshold, and that is…
Ø
There
are incredible amounts of money to be made DIRECTLY off of the Field…and any other
bets (with the exception of straight up Propbets on the 2 and 12) are merely supporting
cast members…or bankrollsucking leaches that actually reduce your profitrate. Now,
let’s see if my rant was worth all that trouble…
The
first thing that should jump right out at you is the fact that at a low axialmaintenance
(even as low as 30%); the Fieldbet is the only wager in that bunch that is STILL
profitable even if you never ever get past the 55% onaxis proficiency mark. If
a 55% O/A X6 shooter can steadily benefit from the Field; can the other 45% of his OFFaxis
outcomes also contribute anything useful? Let’s
find out… OutcomeDistribution
Dictates BetDecisions
To
decide where and how much of your wageringweight should be placed on any bets, your
distribution of outcomes should be the sole dictator in that process. That
is: YOUR
diceset distributionresults (as opposed to randomexpectancy) dictates where YOUR
money should be bet.
Ø
Let’s
assume for a moment that you are able to keep your dice onaxis about 55% of the time. Though that means that they’ll be going
OFFaxis the other 45% of the time; it does not mean that they are
“wasted” rolls.
Ø
Instead,
we know that you’ll still have some offaxis Signature Outcomes simply
because, even though the dice sometimes do go offaxis, the two dice often still
remain in correlation. For a full discussion
on correlation, please see Shooting Bible #11.
Ø
Correlated
Signature Outcomes is why you’ll often see the same rollresults even when one
of your die does go offaxis.
Ø
In
the end though, those same irritating offaxis “tossdefects”, can still enable
and permit even more tangible profit to be derived from what appears to be a
diceinfluencing “shortcoming”.
Ø
The
first thing I can tell you about this, is that it achieves a SevenstoRolls Ratio of over
1:8 DESPITE the fact that the dice are only kept onaxis 55% of the time.
Ø
The
second thing I can tell you is that with modestlyinfluenced rollstats like these, the
Fieldbet becomes a nobrainer champion by racking up a stunning 11.25% advantage over the
house. Take
a look at the numbers that correspond with those abovenoted axialoutcome percentages,
and then we’ll discuss how to really put a shine on this lowlyregarded Fieldbet
cowpatty:
A
randomroller can expect to see a Fieldnumber about 44.44% of the time, while nonField
outcomes account for the other 55.56% of random appearances. By
subtly affecting the dicedistribution expectancy through diceinfluencing, our 55%
onaxis X6 shooter achieves a significantly better set of outcomes where he’ll see a
Fieldnumber about 49.62% of the time and a nonField outcome about 50.38% of the time. At
first glance, those are not huge differences in expected outcomes. However the fact is, you don’t have to be
a “perfectthrower” to derive an exploitable edge over the house…but you DO
have to bet your advantage correctly, otherwise your skills are almost entirely wasted. The
Bottom Line When
you combine those onaxis outcomes with the offaxis ones, you start to get a more
complete picture of where your strongest and most compelling bettingopportunities are
found…and frankly, where the preponderance of your bettingweight should be placed. So
what does all this mean in terms of this players advantage over the house? Have
a look for yourself:
Ø
At
the top of the advantageplay heap stands the 2 and 12.
Now normally, this Propwager has a houseedge of 13.889%, but for the X6
shooter who has reached an easily achievable 55% OA skilllevel; he not only overcomes
that nearly 14% houseedge…but actually puts his own shooting into the driver’s
seat with a positive 20% advantage over each of those traditionally disparaged 2
and 12 “Crazy Crapper” bets. That’s
a 35% change in course from the hands of a decidedly moderately skilled shooter.
Ø
In
descending order, the Fieldbet comes in as his next strongest bet. Again, this wager is traditionally frowned upon
because of its 5.56% houseedge…but that’s for randomrollers. For diceinfluencers with the modest skillset
that we’ve been discussing, that houseedge is pared right down to nothing…and
comes out on the positive side for the player to the tune of an 11.25% advantage on a
“downtownodds” table.
Ø
Keep
in mind that advantageblackjack players start to wet their panties if the edge climbs
anywhere close to 2% or 3%, so an 11.25% playeredge would make them downright
wacky…but many craps veterans still can’t get over the psychological hump of
making an advantagebet that their tablematefriends might frown upon. Wellintentioned peerpressure often keeps many
skilled players from earning their rightfully deserved profit.
Ø
In
this scenario, even the normal 4% houseedge on the 5 and 9 Placebets gets reversed into
a playeradvantage of over 6%, while the normal 4.76% cost of buying the 4 or 10 turns
into the players favor to the tune of 4%.
Ø
Keep
in mind that we are not discussing perfectworld scenarios here. We are talking about an unexceptional onaxis
proficiency of 55%, and an even more modest 16% primaryface hitrate.
Ø
Each
of those negativetopositive expectancy reversals are so significant that a savvy
player cannot ignore them or eschew them simply because a couple of writers who don’t
know preferred stock from livestock and don’t understand how a diceinfluencer can
maximize his profit without following gambling dogma that is a hold over from the Dark
Ages, said that the Fieldbet is a bad thing.
Ø
It
IS a bad thing for randomrollers, but in the unassuming hands of an
intermediatelyskilled diceinfluencer, the Fieldbet can be downright lucrative.
Ø
Instead
of blindly following wornout gambling decrees and ageold doctrine that was designed for
the world of randomlythrown outcomes; the astute diceinfluencer has to look at his
current abilities and honestly ask himself if he is extracting the maximum possible profit
from each of the bets that he is making. I
am talking about using exactly THE SAME betlevels that you are comfortable
with now, but simply redeploying that same money on bets that will serve your
current skilllevel most equitably.
Ø
Many
players are shocked to discover that they have been unfairly retarding their DI earnings
simply because some wagers like the Field are saddled with a “ladies bet” label
or an innercitybettorsonly stigma. Grow
up…get real…and put your money where it will serve your current skills the best. Oh,
and one other thing. Those onaxis and
offaxis stats that we just reviewed, well you may be surprised to learn that they give
that 55% O/A X6set shooter an SRR of 8.33.
Not too shabby for a modestlyskilled player who is offaxis about
45% of the time. So,
Can You Shine THIS FieldBet CowPatty? Yer
darn tootin’ you can! I
hope you’ll join me for Part Three of this series when we take this
little filly for a hard ride around the casinos Fieldbet meadow. You may be surprised at how quickly she can gallop
to a full and sustained profit. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the tables…and in Life Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

