Regression Avoids Depression
Part 18
The number of diceinfluencers who THROW
with an edge over the house is quite large, but the number
of diceinfluencers who actually BET
with an edge over the house is still quite disappointingly low.
I can guarantee that the next couple of
chapters in this series will show you how to extract more profit
from the same level of
skill you are playing with right now.
There’s No Need to Fly Blind
To judge the effectiveness and efficiency of
any bettingmethod we first have to appraise it at its most
basic element.
For globalbets like Across, Inside, Even,
Outside, IronCross, 6 & 8, 5 & 9, and 4 & 10 wagers; we
have to first consider exactly what it takes to
make each of these bets profitable in their flatbet form.
Additionally, we have to ascertain how many
winninghits it takes to reach profitability when compared
to how many hits our current diceinfluencing
skilllevel will likely produce during an average hand.
In other words, we have to consider how many
winninghits our combined multinumber bets require
for them to reach netprofitability, and we
also have to consider whether or not our current DI skills can manufacture
enough hits to make this kind of wager sustainable over a sizeable scope of
sessions.
If we don’t know that, then we are flying
almost completely blind…and when it comes to venturing your
money; that’s not a very smart thing to do.
Since we looked at all those bets in their most rudimentary flatbet form in
Part
Seventeen,
let’s see
how we can leverage that information into a more useable (and profitable) mode
for regressionbettors.
Your TRUE MultiNumber Edge
If you regress your wagers at the
prescribed optimal time during your pointcycle (as I’ve set out
and
defined in the previous chapters
of this series); then your edge over the house will pretty much mirror
the stats that you see in the
following chart. However, if you follow a different path or betting regimen,
then obviously your mileage,
your advantage over the house (if any), and of course your profit,
is
going to vary widely.
Let’s jump right in…
PlayerEdge
using
Optimized Regression 
BetType

SSR7 
SSR8 
SSR9 
Inside




Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

2.00% 
6.23% 
12.36% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR 
2.00% 
2.08% 
3.09% 
Across




Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.78% 
5.84% 
11.97% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

0.89% 
1.95% 
2.99% 
Outside




Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
2 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.40% 
5.10% 
10.70% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

1.40% 
2.55% 
2.68% 
Even




Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.82% 
5.86% 
12.09% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

1.82% 
1.95% 
3.02% 
Iron Cross




Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.68% 
5.59% 
11.64% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

0.84% 
1.86% 
2.91% 
6 and 8




Optimal Hits before Regressing

2 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

2.42% 
7.42% 
14.00% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

1.21% 
2.47% 
3.50% 
5 and 9




Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
3 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.70% 
5.60% 
11.70% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

1.70% 
1.87% 
2.93% 
4 and 10




Optimal Hits before Regressing

1 
2 
4 
Cum. EdgeperHand prior to Regression

1.10% 
4.60% 
9.60% 
EdgeperRoll prior to Optimized ISR

1.10% 
2.30% 
2.40% 
What It Means
Optimal Hits Before Regressing
is the number of
winning hits this particular bet should remain at its
initial large preregression
level before optimally reducing it to a lower betamount. For example, a
SRR7 shooter would ideally leave
his InsideNumber wager at its large preregression starting value
for one hit only; while the SRR8
shooter can afford to leave it at its initial starting value for three paying
hits before regressing to a lower
amount of exposure.
Cumulative EdgeperHand prior
to Regression
is the aggregate advantage the
player has over the
house prior to regressing his
globalwager at the optimal time. This figure gives you an idea of how
powerful regressionbetting can
be when properly combined with diceinfluencing. By merging your
skilldriven
expectedrollduration with a bettingmethod that utilizes and exploits the
fattest part of your
pointcycle expectancycurve; you
derive benefit from the most frequently occurring opportunities, while
concurrently reducing bankroll volatility and risk.
EdgeperRoll prior to
Optimized ISR is the
average weightedadvantage you have over the house on
a perroll basis prior to
reducing your wager at the ideal triggerpoint. This figure is used to indicate
how much of your total gaming
bankroll you can afford to expose to any of these globalwagers.
How To Use It
With the
PlayerEdge Using Optimized
Regression chart,
it is pretty easy to figure out how much of
your total gaming bankroll you
can afford to expose to a given globalwager with your current skilllevel.
Let me give you an example:
Ø
Let’s say your SRR is 1:7 and you
like making Insidewagers (Placebets that cover the 5, 6, 8,
and 9).
Ø
If you regress your bets at the
optimal point for this skilllevel (as explained in detail in previous
chapters of this
series); then your preregression edgeperroll is 2%.
Ø
However, your edge over the house
only stands up for a very short period of time (as measured
by expected
pointcycle rollduration); so you would leave your InsideNumber bet at its
large
preregression
amount for just one Insidenumber hit before reducing it.
Ø
It also means that you could
dedicate UP TO 2% of your total gaming bankroll to wagering on the
preregression
portion of this bet. Obviously you are free to bet less than that optimal
amount; and
although by
doing so, your risk would be lower, so too would your overall profitgrowth.
Ø
In this example, if let’s say you
wanted to start with $110Inside before regressing it down to
$22Inside after
one paying hit; then you would divide $110 by 0.02 to calculate how much
of a
TOTAL gaming
bankroll you should have before using this steep of a regression (under your
current SRR7
skilllevel). In this case we are talking about requiring a $5500 total
bankroll to
properly fund
this wager.
Ø
If let’s say you decided that a
more conservative 2:1 steepness ratio was called for (starting with
perhaps
$44Inside before regressing after one paying hit to $22Inside); then you take
your 2%
edgeper roll
and divide $44 by 0.02 to discover that you would only need a TOTAL
gaming
bankroll of
$2200 to comfortably afford this wager.
A Brief but Critical Word About
TOTAL Bankroll
In Chapter Seven of my new Crapshooting
Bible I’ve laid out the details of how best to gear and restrict
your advantaged wagers to your strongestedge
bets and how much of your bankroll you can reasonably
dedicate to any of them on both an individual
and collective basis; so I’ll simply remind you here, that your
total gaming bankroll is not the money
that you bring to the casino as your session buyin, nor is it the
amount of money that you have dedicated for an
upcoming trip. Rather, your total gaming bankroll is the
amount of money, which if you lost it, would
cause you to completely abandon advantageplay dice
influencing.
Another “How To Use It”
Example
Let’s say you have an SRR of 1:8,
and you are thinking about using an Initial Steep Regression on the
Outsidewager (4, 5, 9, and 10),
but you want to see how much of an edge you would likely have over it. As
well, you’d like to determine how
much of your total gaming bankroll you could reasonably dedicate to this
particular wager.
To do that, you simply take a
look at the PlayerEdge
Using Optimized Regression
chart and see that an
SRR8 player would likely have a
2.55% edgeperroll on the Outsidebet.
To determine how much of a
bankroll you would ideally need, you first have to determine the initial
preregression value of the wager
you plan to start with. If you wanted to use a 5:1 steepness ratio for your
wager (starting with $100Outside
before optimally regressing it to $20Outside after three paying hits);
then
you’d take your 2.55%
edgeperroll and divide $100 by 0.0255 to discover that you’d ideally need a
total
gaming bankroll of $3922 to
properly fund this bet.
If you wanted to use a more
moderate 3:1 steepness ratio like $60Outside ($15 each on the 4, 5, 9, and 10);
then you would divide $60 by
0.0255 to determine that starting with $2353 as your minimum total gaming
bankroll would be ideal for this
size of wager and your SRR8 level of diceinfluencing skill.
Though we’ve just begun this
exploration, I can promise you that Part Nineteen of this series will open your
eyes to a whole new world of
possibilities when we examine how quickly you can double your bankroll when
you religiously
stick to just making optimized
advantageplay regression wagers like the ones we are discussing here.
I hope you’ll join me for that.
Until then,
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright ©
2006
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