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Part VII It
matters how well you DO play. Your
task as an advantage-player, is to figure out how good your own shooting actually is, and
then match it with properly-sized exploitable wagers.
Ø
The
dice-set that you use and the indicative Foundation Frequencies that your
toss-dynamic produces, is what yields your most recurrent outcomes…and your best,
most predictable betting opportunities.
Ø
Most
dice-influencers use a different dice-set for the Come-Out portion of their hand than they
use for their subsequent Point-cycle segment.
Ø
Though
your dice-set may change from C-O cycle to Point-cycle, your basic dice-tossing dynamic
does not.
Ø
As
a result, the same Foundation Frequencies (primary-face hits, on-axis single-pitches,
on-axis double-pitches, one dice off-axis, and both dice off-axis outcomes) that you
produce with one dice-set will generally carry over to each and every other
dice-set.
The
savvy Precision-Shooter not only recognizes how indicative his own Foundation
Frequencies determine the Signature-Numbers that each dice-set produces; but in doing so,
he often identifies here-before-unknown latent betting-opportunities. That
brings us to a perennial wagering favorite among dice-influencers who use various
permutations of the V-2 dice-set. Outside-Bets
In
a random outcome game, Outside wagers constitute 38.89% of all possible outcomes. The Outside-bet covers the 4, 5, 9, and 10. There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish. Therefore,
Outside-numbers constitute 14-out-of-36 (38.89%) of all randomly-expected
outcomes, and their average weighted-payout is $7.86 per hit. How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based SRR-rate.
Anatomy
Of An Outside-Wager
Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer
to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flat-bets.
A
random-roller still has a greater chance of 7’ing-Out than he does of hitting enough
Outside-numbers for this low hit-requirement bet to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomly-based
bets that you make. However,
in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer, the Outside -bet can be a steady
profit contributor to your bankroll. Take a
look:
As
with Inside-Numbers and All-Across wagers; your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely determines
the average roll-duration of your Outside-bet hand. Equally,
your SRR also determines the decay-rate of your validated edge against any given bet and
therefore establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet into a smaller,
lower-value one.
As
usual:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory for the
Outside-Number bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high starting-value.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your dice-influencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected roll-duration hit-rate for the Outside-number wager has to factor in the
modified sevens-appearance-rate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal
regression trigger-point for each skill-level.
Ø
Once
we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the
trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our hand-duration does
exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it often will.
A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $100-Outside versus the use of an initial
$100-Outside wager that is steeply regressed to $20-Outside at the appropriate trigger-point.
I
deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negative-expectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the
Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression should take place.
Here’s
a comparison between flat-betting the Outside-bet versus the use of an Initial Steep
Regression:
Ø By using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in positive-expectation territory, and still permitting a much-reduced set of post-regression wagers to stay in place once our roll-duration surpasses that point; we get to benefit from the best of both worlds.
Ø
By
using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR), we derive profit from the fattest
positive-expectation portion of our point-cycle, while our newly reduced lower-value bets
remain in action when our hand exceeds its expected average duration, as it often will. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower our net-profit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRR-rate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you can take full advantage of your dice-influencing skills. It
is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger-point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably keep
them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls before having to
steeply regress them.
I
hope you’ll join me for Part Eight, when we take a fresh and new look at a venerable
old bet. Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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