
Regression Avoids
Depression It
matters how well you DO play. Your
task as an advantageplayer, is to figure out how good your own shooting actually is, and
then match it with properlysized exploitable wagers.
Ø
The
diceset that you use and the indicative Foundation Frequencies that your
tossdynamic produces, is what yields your most recurrent outcomes…and your best,
most predictable betting opportunities.
Ø
Most
diceinfluencers use a different diceset for the ComeOut portion of their hand than they
use for their subsequent Pointcycle segment.
Ø
Though
your diceset may change from CO cycle to Pointcycle, your basic dicetossing dynamic
does not.
Ø
As
a result, the same Foundation Frequencies (primaryface hits, onaxis singlepitches,
onaxis doublepitches, one dice offaxis, and both dice offaxis outcomes) that you
produce with one diceset will generally carry over to each and every other
diceset.
The
savvy PrecisionShooter not only recognizes how indicative his own Foundation
Frequencies determine the SignatureNumbers that each diceset produces; but in doing so,
he often identifies herebeforeunknown latent bettingopportunities. That
brings us to a perennial wagering favorite among diceinfluencers who use various
permutations of the V2 diceset. OutsideBets
In
a random outcome game, Outside wagers constitute 38.89% of all possible outcomes. The Outsidebet covers the 4, 5, 9, and 10. There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9, and it pays 7:5.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish. Therefore,
Outsidenumbers constitute 14outof36 (38.89%) of all randomlyexpected
outcomes, and their average weightedpayout is $7.86 per hit. How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased SRRrate.
Anatomy
Of An OutsideWager
Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flatbets.
A
randomroller still has a greater chance of 7’ingOut than he does of hitting enough
Outsidenumbers for this low hitrequirement bet to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomlybased
bets that you make. However,
in the hands of a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, the Outside bet can be a steady
profit contributor to your bankroll. Take a
look:
As
with InsideNumbers and AllAcross wagers; your SevenstoRolls Ratio largely determines
the average rollduration of your Outsidebet hand. Equally,
your SRR also determines the decayrate of your validated edge against any given bet and
therefore establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet into a smaller,
lowervalue one.
As
usual:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory for the
OutsideNumber bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high startingvalue.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your diceinfluencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate for the Outsidenumber wager has to factor in the
modified sevensappearancerate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal
regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our handduration does
exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it often will.
A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $100Outside versus the use of an initial
$100Outside wager that is steeply regressed to $20Outside at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression should take place.
Here’s
a comparison between flatbetting the Outsidebet versus the use of an Initial Steep
Regression:
Ø By using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in positiveexpectation territory, and still permitting a muchreduced set of postregression wagers to stay in place once our rollduration surpasses that point; we get to benefit from the best of both worlds.
Ø
By
using an Initial Steep Regression (ISR), we derive profit from the fattest
positiveexpectation portion of our pointcycle, while our newly reduced lowervalue bets
remain in action when our hand exceeds its expected average duration, as it often will. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower our netprofit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you can take full advantage of your diceinfluencing skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably keep
them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls before having to
steeply regress them.
I
hope you’ll join me for Part Eight, when we take a fresh and new look at a venerable
old bet. Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

