
Regression Avoids
Depression When
compared to flatbetting, the use of an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) provides a superior
returnoninvestment that is just too darn good to ignore. The
Proof Is In The PROFIT In
case you haven’t figured it out by now, the term “flatbet” can just as
easily be replaced with “Kelly Criterion bet”.
The “Kelly” holds that you wager in direct proportion to your
playeredge over a given bet, neither increasing nor decreasing it during any given hand. As such, Kellybased flatbets derive their
netprofit from the average of shorthand losers and longhand winners that your
personal SRRrate produces. Unfortunately,
despite its validity, you’ll likely experience all kinds of wild bankroll volatility
swings when using Kellystyle betting. Frankly,
I am not fundamentally against the use of Kelly wagering; it’s just that most players
cannot endure the whipsaw ups and downs of the winsome, losealot results, and as
such, their own actual shooting ability is negatively affected by the psychological toll
that that kind of nervewracking unpredictability brings to their game. Initial
Steep Regressions take some of that volatility out of the game by offering a higher rate
of predictability as well as providing an increased level of retained profit. At the end of the day, however, you have to make
the decision as to how steadily and how profitably you want to take advantage of your own
diceinfluencing skills. The choice is
entirely up to you. Take
a look at how Initial Steep Regressions stack up against flat Kellystyle wagering:
While
most gamblers are trying to figure out ways to make money off of randomrollers, smart
players are taking some or all of that needlessly imperiled negativeexpectation money,
and deploying it on positive EV (expectedvalue) ISR wagers where they not only have a
positiveexpectation of profit; but where they have a superior expected rateofreturn
over flat Kellybased wagering too. Some
people like to gamble, and some people like to win. In
most cases, the difference comes down to how you specifically wager your money. As
a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, Steep Regressions offer a tangible way to turn some of
the casinos money into YOUR money, instead of the other way around; and when it comes
right down to it, that is what advantageplay is all about. EvenNumber
Bets
In
a random outcome game, Evennumber wagers constitute 44.44% of all possible
outcomes. The EvenNumber bet covers the 4,
6, 8, and 10. There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and it pays 7:6.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish. Therefore,
the EvenNumber wager constitutes 16outof36 (44.44%) of all randomlyexpected outcomes,
and their average weightedpayout is $7.75 per hit. How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased SRRrate.
Anatomy
Of An EvenNumber Wager
Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flat Kellystyle bets.
As
with any other bet, a randomroller still has a greater chance of 7’ingOut than he
does of hitting enough Evennumber bets for it to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomlybased
bets that you make. Again, if you are chasing
randomrollers and trying to make a steady profit off of them, then your money would be
better deployed on your very own validated advantageplay wagers. As
a flatbetting advantageplayer, it takes three winning samebet hits before this $22
EvenNumber wager breaks into profitability. Fortunately,
in the hands of a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, the Evennumber bet can be a steady
profit contributor to your bankroll, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to flatbets
with it. Take a look:
As
with InsideNumbers, AllAcross and Outsidewagers; your SevenstoRolls Ratio largely
determines the average rollduration of your Evennumber bet. Equally, your SRR also determines the decayrate
of your validated edge against any given bet and therefore establishes the optimal time to
regress your initially large bet into a smaller, lowervalue one.
As
usual:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory for the
EvenNumber bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high startingvalue.
Ø
Even
though advantageplay flatbetting can produce a netprofit for us, the use of ISR’s
substantially increase our sameskill profitrate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your diceinfluencing skills. Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate for the Evennumber wager correctly factors in the
modified sevensappearancerate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal
regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our handduration does
exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it often will.
Ø
Regressionbetting
does not mean that we remove our bets once they have paid for themselves;
rather, it means that we reduce the initial largebet into a stillactive smallbet while
concurrently locking in a profit at the optimal triggerpoint. Not only will more of our short hands produce a
tangible profit, but the long ones will continue to produce revenue too.
Ø
We
produce many more short hands than we produce long ones.
Why not capitalize on it instead of fighting it? Why not use most of our short hands to produce a
profit instead of hoping and praying that each and every hand will be long enough to
produce sufficient multiple Kellybased flatbet wins to produce an overall profit?
Ø
The
more profit our bankroll accumulates, the more adaptable and aggressive our wagering can
become. ISR’s let us get there
sooner and with much less volatility.
Ø
The
Kelly Criterion can accurately tell us how much of our total bankroll we should be
wagering against a given playeradvantage bet. I
have no problem with that at all. In fact I
use a partialKelly specifically for that betsizing purpose as well as using it to
determine my total betexposure value.
Ø
However,
Steep Regressions takes much of the volatilitysting out of erosive loses on global
(multinumber, multihitrequirement) bets where multiple winning wagers are hit…but
unfortunately not enough of them are steadily produced to improve a players overall
shooting confidence. This series is
all about putting steady and predictable profit INTO your hands while concurrently
boosting your overall PrecisionShooting confidence.
Ø
Nobody
is saying that your reducedbets have to stay at their lower level if your hand
surpasses your average rollduration point, as it often will. Instead, ISR’s let you make more money
from a greater number of hands than flatbetting does, thereby giving you even MORE
betflexibility once you get past your average rollduration point. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $110 on the EvenNumbers versus the
use of an initial $110 EvenNumber wager that is steeply regressed to
$22Even at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression should take place.
Here’s
a summarized comparison between flatbetting the EvenNumbers versus the use of an Initial
Steep Regression:
For
novice, intermediate and even advanced diceinfluencers, regressionbetting enjoys a wide
returnoninvestment advantage over flatbetting.
Ø
By
using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in
positiveexpectation territory, and still permitting a muchreduced set of postregression
wagers to stay in place once our rollduration surpasses that point; we get to benefit
from the best of both worlds.
Ø
ISR’s
permit us to derive profit from the fattest positiveexpectation portion of our
pointcycle, while the newly reduced lowervalue bets remain in action when our hand does
exceed it expected average duration.
Ø
In
future chapters of this series, we will take a serious look at how to properly ramp up
your bets on those rare but welcome long hands. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be.
Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you’ll be able to take full advantage of your current diceinfluencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls
before needing to steeply regress them. In
the case of a SRR9 shooter using the EvenNumbers bet that we’ve been discussing
today, he’ll generally get the benefit of four preregression hits before
optimally reducing his betexposure.
Part
Nine
in this series tackles the venerable Anythingbut7 Iron Cross bet. I hope you’ll join me for that. Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

