
Regression Avoids
Depression I
Shouldn’t Be Surprised, but I’m Still Amazed I’ll
tell you quite frankly, I find it funny when a player says that he tried using a
regressionstyle bet a time or two, but it didn’t work out, so he decided to never
try it again. I
wonder to myself if that same player abandoned Passlinewagers, Placebets, Odds bets, and
Comebets just as quickly when they lost a time or two, but I know better than to ask. Ø Without doubt, the cost of losing one big initial preregression bet can cause a momentary twinge of pain, yet many players will endure countless Placebet losses and Comebet losses for many times more money over time, and gladly endure that with a smile.
Ø
When
asked how much profit their current flatbet Placewagering or Comebetting is making for
them, they usually reply that it’s not yet netprofitable because it usually takes
too many hits for those wagers to consistently get over the profitmaking hump despite
the multiple winninghits that their diceinfluencing skills currently yield.
Ø
When
I point out that their current SRR justifies the use of an appropriately sized Initial
Steep Regression (ISR) that would turn their mediocre breakeven betresults into
consistently profitable ones; they simply state that they can’t afford to take one
big loss; yet they’ll continually let the casino slowly chisel and erode their entire
bankroll on multihitrequirement bets despite their obviously significant
diceinfluencing edge over the house. Like
I said, some people like to gamble, and some people like to win. In most cases, the difference between
winning and losing, regardless of whether you are the world’s GREATEST
PrecisionShooter or just slightly better than a randomroller; STILL comes down to how
you wager your money.
Ø
If
you have an edge, you have to bet it in an exploitable way.
For a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, Steep Regressions offer a tangible
way to turn some of the casinos money into YOUR money. If
you are steadily losing money with flat or pressedup Placebets or Comebets, yet you
know that you almost always hit at least one of your normal Placebet wagers during
most hands; then you can afford an ISR that is tailored to suit your skilllevel, your
SRRrate, your bankroll limitations, your winobjectives and your
personal betcomfort level. Winning
the most money for the least risk is what this series is all about. The
IronCross
In
a random outcome game, the Anythingbut7 Iron Cross wager constitutes 83.33% of
all possible outcomes. The Iron Cross (also
known as the Umbrella bet) covers all the numbers on the table (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8,
9, 10, 11, and 12) except the 7. In this
scenario, you would bet one unit each on the 5, 6, 8 and Field. In
the ongoing You
Can’t Shine A CowPatty…Or Can You? series, we look at the Iron
Cross in a wholly unconventional moneywinning way. Right
now though, we are going to investigate whether the Iron Cross can benefit from the use an
Initial Steep Regression. There
is:
Ø
One
way to make the 2, and in most casinos it pays out at 2:1 on the Field.
Ø
Two
ways to make the 3, and it pays evenmoney on the Field.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and it pays evenmoney on the Field.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 5, and the Placebet pays 7:5, but when it hits, your Fieldbet loses so it
has to be replaced.
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and the Placebet pays 7:6, but when it hits, your Fieldbet also loses
so it has to be replaced.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and the Placebet pays 7:6, but when it hits, your Fieldbet loses so
it too has to be replaced.
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9, and it pays evenmoney on the Field.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10, and it pays evenmoney on the Field.
Ø
Two
ways to make the 11, and it pays evenmoney on the Field.
Ø
One
way to make the 12, and in most casinos it pays out at either 2:1 or 3:1 on the Field. For this exercise, we’ll calculate its
winning payouts at 3:1. Therefore,
the Iron Cross wager constitutes 30outof36 (83.33%) of all randomlyexpected outcomes,
and its average weightedpayout for a $5 ($22 Iron Cross) bettor is $4.10 per hit. Why
is the payout less than evenmoney when you have so many winning hits? Well,
even though you have singleunit wagers on the 5, 6, and 8; their netpayout (after you
replace your Fieldbet which loses when the 5, 6, or 8 wins), is a paltry $2 for each
nonField outcome. Since the 5, 6, and 8
constitute fourteen out of your thirty winning Iron Cross outcomes, the steady replacement
of Fieldbets has a pernicious way of diluting your overall perhit winrate. Still though, let’s see how that $4.10 average
weightedpayout for the Iron Cross fairs in the hands of a diceinfluencer. As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased
SRRrate.
Anatomy
Of An IronCross Wager
As
with any other bet, a randomroller still has a greater chance of 7’ingOut than he
has of hitting enough Iron Cross bets for it to pay for itself on a consistent basis. That is the nature of ANY randomlybased
bets that you make. As
a flatbetting advantageplayer, it takes an average of six winning samebet hits
before this $22 Iron Cross wager breaks into profitability.
Fortunately, in the hands of a modestly skilled diceinfluencer, the Iron
Cross can be a steady profit contributor to your bankroll, even if you do decide to
strictly adhere to flatbets. Take a look:
As
with InsideNumbers, AllAcross, Outside, and EvenNumber globaltype wagers; your
SevenstoRolls Ratio largely determines the average rollduration of your Iron Cross bet
too. Equally, your SRR also determines the
betsurvival decayrate of your validated edge against any given wager and therefore
establishes the optimal time to regress your initially large bet into a smaller,
lowervalue one. As
we’ve seen in previous chapters, the perroll decayrate is different for each
SRRrate as well as for each type of global wager.
Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearancerate for the 7 declines.
Ø
The
less the 7 shows up within a given samplinggroup, the more other non7 outcomes
will take its place. In the case of the Iron
Cross, you get 100% efficiency with that reduced7’s replacementrate simply because
the Iron Cross includes all of the other possible non7 outcomes.
Ø Therefore, a reduced 7’s appearancerate means an increased winningbet rate, and that holds especially true for such an allencompassing wager like the Anythingbut7 Iron Cross.
Ø
To
give your diceshooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine
exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7’s. Since the Iron Cross covers every number
except the 7; the beneficial impact of less 7’s is much more direct for the IC than
it is for lessencompassing (lessinclusive, fewer covered numbers) types of global bets
like the Inside, Across, Outside or EvenNumber wagers.
Ø
In
the samples that I’ve used in this series, I’ve evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As
such, your expectancychart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here.
If
you ignore or dismiss your SRRrate; you are not only overlooking your best indicator of
average handduration, but you are also rejecting the best gauge by which to successfully
structure a consistently productive multinumber bettingmethod. Intelligent
advantageplayers aren’t so quick to turn their backs on such an important
profitpatterning benchmark. If
you ignore what your skillbased sevensappearancerate is trying to tell you; then
don’t be surprised if consistently produceable profit ignores you too. As
we’ve discussed before:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory for the Iron
Cross wager; then we can easily determine a way in which to use an initially large
“startinglevel” wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it
down to a still productive postregression value is.
Ø
Even
though advantageplay Kellystyle flatbetting can produce a netprofit for us; in most
cases, the use of ISR’s substantially increase our sameskill profitrate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your diceinfluencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate for the Iron Cross correctly factors in the modified
sevensappearancerate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal
regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active but lowervalue bets on the layout in the event that our
handduration does exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it
often will. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $110 on the Iron Cross versus the use
of an initial $110 Iron Cross wager that is steeply regressed to a $22 Iron
Cross at the appropriate triggerpoint. For
greater clarity, a $110 Iron Cross is spread out as follows:
Ø
$25
on the Field.
Ø
$25
on the Placebet 5.
Ø
$30
on the Placebet 6.
Ø
$30
on the Placebet 6. A
$22 Iron Cross is spread out as follows:
Ø
$5
on the Field.
Ø
$5
on the Placebet 5.
Ø
$6
on the Placebet 6.
Ø
$6
on the Placebet 6.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flat Kellystyle bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression should take place.
Here’s
a summarized comparison between flatbetting the Iron Cross versus the use of an Initial
Steep Regression:
Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø The steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
The
risk of using too shallow of a regression demonstrates itself with the SRR7
shooter who uses an initial $44 Iron Cross that gets regressed down to a $22 IC. However, by simply increasing his ISR
steepnessratio from 2:1 to 3:1, he immediately regains profitability. Once again, we see how critically important it is
to structure our bets properly. “Better
that random” does not automatically mean better profit. Having
an edge over the house does NOT mean that money will start to automatically flow in our
direction. We have to intentionally divert it
that way through the use of properly structured wagers.
As
your SRRrate improves, so too does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you’ll be able to take full advantage of your current diceinfluencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just two hits; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls
before needing to steeply regress them. In
the case of a SRR9 shooter using the Iron Cross bet that we’ve been discussing
today, he’ll generally get the benefit of four preregression hits before
optimally reducing his betexposure.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor

