
Regression Avoids
Depression Why
ISR’s Offer More Profit Predictability
The
intelligent use of Initial Steep Regressions (ISR's) is the closest a player can come to
accurately projecting his profit on a sessiontosession, daytoday, weektoweek,
monthtomonth and yeartoyear basis. Nothing
else comes closer to predicting how much profit an advantageplayer can yield on a
perhand basis. Ø By taking a players entire SRRpredictive range of rolloutcomes (from the shortest Pointthen7Out to the longest mega and minimammoth hands) for each SevenstoRolls Ratio; and then counterposing and evaluating every global (multinumber/multidecision) bet on the table, we can determine the optimal regression point for each bettype and skilllevel.
Ø Since volatilitymeasurement and volatilitymanagement is built into each of the optimal regression triggerpoints for each of the bettypes we are discussing in this series; a player can determine how many rolls and winninghits he can generally expect from each hand depending on his current incasino SRRrate.
Ø
The
charts in this series not only show how it is done, but also why ISR's are truly
superior to other wagering methods and why they work so well. The only thing the shooter has to do is to control
his bettingdiscipline as much as he controls the dice at his current SRR
skilllevel. For
example…
Ø
If
he knows how many turns with the dice he’ll have during an average session; then
using the SRRtables in this series, he can look at his current SRR diceinfluencing
skilllevel and his current bankroll, plus his current wagersize comfortlevel; and then
determine the appropriate ISR betting method (InsideNumbers, AllAcross wagers,
OutsideNumbers, EvenNumbers, the Iron Cross, or simple 6 & 8, 5 &
9, or 4 & 10 regressions, or even more exotic multistage PlaceComePlace
staggered regressiontype wagers) and determine not only the bettype that is just
right for him, but also how much money he’ll likely make from those
ISRwagers during an average session. How
ISR’s Offer Better Profit Dependability
Ø If a player has a fairly good dicetossing consistency, yet he has a hard time getting to any level of revenueconsistency; then chances are, he hasn't properly matched his shooting prowess with his betting prowess.
Ø
ISR’s
are especially useful to players who have developed a modest ability to influence
the dice, but haven't yet been able to turn their skills into steady earnings. With
the use of Initial Steep Regressions, a novice player can reap a larger degree of the
rewards that his derandomized throws are offering; while an advanced player can extract
even more income from his current skillset on a much more predictable basis...with each
player accomplishing his profitobjective more often and with less overall risk
than flat or pressedup wagering. Putting
the 6 and 8 Placebet Under a Microscope
So
far we’ve looked at how well ISR’s work on several globaltype bets that cover
four numbers (Inside, Outside, and Even), six numbers (Across) and
even ten numbers (Iron Cross) at the same time.
However, let’s say you are just considering Placebetting your two most
dominant SignatureNumbers like the 6 and 8.
Ø
In
random expectancy, we’ll see five 6’s and five 8’s against six appearances
of the 7, which equates to ten appearances of the 6 and 8 for every six appearances for
the 7.
Ø That ratio of 10:6 means a randomroller can expect a 6’sand8’sto7’s appearancerate of 1.67:1.
Ø
As
you know, the difference in that ratio is not enough to make up for the cost of a 7out
which would wipe out both Placebet wagers; and even though a winning hit pays 7:6…it
is still not enough to overcome the houseedge.
Ø
A
simple look at the combined value of both bets against their singlehit payoff quickly
exposes where all of that negativeexpectation comes from.
Ø
A
simple $6 Placebet on both the 6 and 8 offers a $7 payoff for $12 of risk.
Ø
In
that light, the 10:6 (1.67:1) Sixes&EightstoSevens ratio doesn’t look all
that appealing even with the better than evenmoney payoff that those winning Placebets
pay.
Ø
As
a result, randomrollers stay on the negativeside of the expectation curve, while
diceinfluencers cross over into positive territory on a regular basis.
Ø
By
using an ISR, the talented shooter can capitalize on those positiveside raids in a much
more reliable way. Why
ISR’s Work So Well With Simple 6 & 8 Placebets
We
know that for a randomroller, the 7 is expected to show up once every six rolls. With a 16.67% appearancerate, that DOES NOT
mean that the 7 will show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll. Instead, it means that its appearancerate will
average out to once every six rolls. That’s
the nature of the beast that we call volatility.
As
diceinfluencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomlyexpected SRR6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay. In
a random outcome game, the 6 and 8 constitute 27.78% of all possible
outcomes. There
are:
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and a Placebet pays 7:6.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and a Placebet pays 7:6. Therefore,
the Placebet 6 and 8 wager constitutes 10outof36 (27.78%) of all randomlyexpected
outcomes, and its payout for a $6 bet is $7.00 per winning hit. As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased
SRRrate.
Although
the sheer number of 6’s and 8’s doesn’t rise that dramatically when your
shootingskill improves; the real difference comes in the reduced appearancerate of
handending 7’s. In the chart above, an
SRR9 shooter only generates slightly more 6’s and 8’s than a randomroller does
(10.67 versus 10.00). However, since his
diceinfluencing produces a lower overall sevensappearancerate, his actual
6’sand8’sto7’s ratio improves by more than 62% (from 1.67 to 2.67). That
is a healthy increase that a savvy advantageplayer simply cannot ignore. Anatomy
Of a 6
& 8
Placebet
The
primary advantageplay ruleofthumb is: The
fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning hits you will
need in order to produce a netprofit.
Placebetting
the 6 and 8 only requires two winning hits to repay your initial basebet before breaking
into netprofitability. As
a flatbetting advantageplayer, two hits on either the 6 and 8 seems like a modest
goal; but you have to maintain perspective and think about all of the times when
you’ve only hit one of them. If
you add up all of those frustrating onerollshortofaprofit losses; you’ll
quickly see that the number of winning hands that you need to throw, actually exceeds
that twohitsrequired mark because of all those onehitisn’tenough
performances. In
other words, the more you miss, the more you have to hit…just to break even. To
be totally fair though, it still doesn’t take very much diceinfluencing skill for
this wager to be a steady profit contributor, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to
flatbets only. Take a look:
Your SevenstoRolls Ratio largely determines the average rollduration of your 6 & 8 Placebet. Ø Now we all know that sometimes a randomroller will throw all kinds of 6’s and 8’s, while at other times they can’t produce them to save their life.
Ø
On
average though, the house wins out on the randomlywagered 6 and 8…and at the end of
the day, it remains a netdetractor to your bankroll.
Ø
On
the other hand, even a flatbetting SRR7 shooter can produce a netprofit with this
wager. Sure, sometimes he’ll throw a
7Out before producing the two required winning hits that it takes to make this bet
netprofitable; but over time, even flat betting it will produce a decent profit for this
caliber of shooter by providing an average return of 16% profit on each and every hand
that he throws. For the SRR8 shooter, that
rateofreturn jumps to nearly 40% R.O.I. per hand. As
good as AP flatbetting can be; there is an even better way for the modestly
skilled PrecisionShooter to produce steadier and larger profits from the exact same
skilllevel.
Ø
Your
SRR determines the ability for any given wager to survive over multiple Pointcycle rolls.
Ø
That
survival rate is determined by the everpresent 7.
Ø
As
your SRRrate improves over random, your chances of a given bet surviving for additional
rolls, increases.
Ø
The
higher your SRRrate is, the longer a given bet has a chance to survive…and THRIVE!
Ø
When
we compare your betsurvivalrate and pit it against the rollduration decayrate of your
current SevenstoRollsRatio (SRR), we can establish the optimal time at which to
regress your initially large bet into a smaller, lowervalue one.
As
we’ve seen in previous chapters, the perroll decayrate is different for each
SRRrate as well as each type of wager. Here
is what it looks like for the 6 and 8 Placebet pointcycle:
Although
the percentages for each SRR proficiencyrate may appear to be relatively close to each
other, and not significantly better than random; it is in that small degree of
positiveexpectation variance that we find all kinds of reliable profit. This is especially true in the first couple of
pointcycle rolls during any given hand. As
we’ve discussed previously, your perroll chances of rolling a 7 stays exactly the
same. For a randomroller it remains steady
at 16.67% perroll, and for the SRR7 shooter it stays locked in at 14.29% per pointcycle
roll. However, the cumulative
rollending effect of the 7 does not remain stable. As
a result, your chances of having a long non7 hand decays with each and every subsequent
pointcycle roll that you make. Sure, you may
sometimes produce a headlinemaking megaroll, but most times you won’t. Advantageplay
means taking profitable advantage of what your diceinfluencing skills are most capable of
producing. You can try to bet like EVERY
hand will be a megahand, but frankly you are going to be disappointed many more times
than you’ll be elated. The
use of Initial Steep Regressions bring profitreliability much closer to hand…much
more often. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearancerate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given samplinggroup, the more other non7 outcomes will take its place. Therefore, a reduced 7’s appearancerate means an increased winningbet rate.
Ø
To
give your diceshooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine
exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7’s.
Ø
In
the samples that I’ve used in this series, I’ve evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As
such, your expectancychart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here. As
we’ve discussed before:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory; then we can
easily determine a way in which to use an initially large “startinglevel”
wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it down to a still productive
postregression value is.
Ø
As
I showed above; even though Kellystyle flatbetting can produce a netprofit, the use of
ISR’s substantially increase our sameskill profitrate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand. Conversely, the higher your SRR is, the more time
(as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you will have in which to fully exploit
your diceinfluencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate chart for the 6 and 8 Placebet that we just looked
at, correctly factors in the modified sevensappearancerate for any given SRR; which in
turn produces the optimal regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initialwager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active but lowervalue bets on the layout in the event that our
handduration does exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it
often will. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $30 each on the 6 and 8 versus initially
betting $30 each on the 6 and 8 then steeply regressing it to $6 each on the 6
and 8 at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kellystyle bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression takes place.
Here’s
a summarized comparison between flatbetting the 6 and 8 Placebet versus the use of an
Initial Steep Regression:
I
don’t know about you, but most players want to get the most bang for their buck.
Ø
A
$10 perhand profit for a SRR7 flatbettor is good, but a $63 perhand profit for
the same guy using a Steep Regression is a whole lot better.
Ø
In
both cases, each scenario starts off with the same bet, $30 each on the 6 and 8. The big difference comes when the smart player
regresses his initially large wager down to a more reasonable one when it is approaching
negativeexpectation territory…thereby locking up a profit no matter what happens
during the rest of the hand. Now
the argument could be made that the guy who never regresses his bets will make more money
in the event that this hand turns out to be THE hand of the century. That assumption of course is correct for long
hands; however, we are talking about your averagehand and your averagesession
shooting where your skills should be producing a profit for you…but they
currently aren’t. No
one in their right mind is saying that you can’t pressup your regressed bets with
ongoing winningwager revenue if your longerduration hand does continue to produce money;
however the fact remains that MOST of your barelybetterthanrandom hands
don’t get to that point; yet they can STILL be netprofitable if you bet them
properly. Anyone
can make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70roll hands, but it takes an acute sense of
skillsawareness and bettingefficiency to take advantage of the short and mediocre ones
too. SRRbased
ISR’s help you accomplish that. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment:
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you’ll be able to take full advantage of your current diceinfluencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just two hits; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first three pointcycle rolls
before needing to steeply regress them. In
the case of a SRR9 shooter using the 6 and 8 Placebet that we’ve been discussing
today, he’ll generally get the benefit of four preregression hits before
optimally reducing his betexposure.
As
I mentioned above; the fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer
winning hits you will need in order to produce a netprofit. By
limiting your wagers to just two Placebets like the 6 and 8; the required number of
winning hits to break through to netprofit is minimal.
As we’ll see in future chapters of this series, this ruleofthumb will
hold us in good stead when we are converting our SRRbased skill into a 90%
winningsession rate that produces a steadily reliable 30% returnoninvestment per
session. You
do the math. If that kind of
profitconsistency interests you; I hope you’ll join me as we explore how
regressionbetting truly does avoid bankrolldepression.
Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

