
Regression Avoids
Depression The
main reason I wanted to share the mathematicallybased efficacy of Steep Regression
exploitability in this series, is so that other players who are still a little skeptical
about its use might finally be able to bridge the frustratingly difficult advantageplay
chasm between their validated diceinfluencing skill and the inconsistency of their
redeemable profit. The
concept of regressionbetting is nothing new; John Patrick has been writing about it for
years. Even in the PrecisionShooting context, consistently profitable ISR’s have
been widely used by talented players for close to two decades now. Utilizing
the fattest, most frequently occurring part of your rollduration expectancycurve allows
to you capture your rightfully earned profit much sooner and more often. It’s
Your Edge, It’s Your Money, and It’s Your Opportunity… …and
what you do with it is entirely up to you. Let’s
say that you have a validated SevenstoRolls Ratio of 1:7 (SRR7), and your properly
financed bankroll indicates that either a $110Inside bet (covering the 5, 6, 8, and 9) or
a $110Even (covering the 4, 6, 8, and 10) would be an appropriatelysized wager to make. To
determine which of those two bettypes will provide the best return on investment, you
should do a sidebyside comparison of Initial Steep Regressions (ISR’s) versus
Flatbetting. Let’s
take a comparative look at how each of those bets stack up against each other for a SRR7
shooter:
Although
the use of Initial Steep Regressions are clearly superior to comparablysized Flatbets,
an advantageplayer still has to look at the specific bettype that will provide the best
returnoninvestment too. So,
not only does the savvy diceinfluencer do a sidebyside comparison of Initial Steep
Regressions (ISR’s) versus Flatbetting, but he also does that same sidebyside
comparison between each of those two ISR bettypes as well. For
example, in the SRR7 chart we see that although the $110Insideregressedto$22Inside
wager provides a nice averageprofit of $19.92 perhand; the same money wagered on
$110Evenregressedto$22Even provides an even better averageprofit of $25.77 per hand. Needless to say, a 29% R.O.I. difference perhand
has a definite way of building sessionrevenue in a measurably significant way. Take
a look at how SRRrates not only affect the broad difference between Flatbetting and
Steep Regression betting, but also note the difference between each bettype when the dice
are in the hands of an SRR8 shooter:
There
is a ton of hidden value in these charts, for example:
Ø
Notice
what happens (or rather, doesn’t happen) when this SRR8 shooter flatbets
$110Inside compared to flatbetting a $110 Iron Cross.
Both of those bets generate the same average perhand profit of $33.50 each. Now
compare those same two bettypes in the hands of a similarly skilled ISRbettor.
Ø
Not
only does each ISR bettype now make more money than the flatbets do, but there is also a
dramatic difference between the money that those two bets make in their respective
ISRmodes…$89.69 in average perhand netprofit for the
$110Insideregressedto$22Inside bettor…compared to only $41.90 for the
$110IronCrossregressedto$22IronCross bettor. So
although each of the two flatbets made the same money ($33.50 average netprofit
perhand) on the Inside and Iron Cross wagers; the use of an Initial Steep Regression not
only boosted netprofit performance by a significant margin (by over 62% in the case of
ISRInside vs. FlatInside bet, and 20% in the case of ISRIron Cross vs. the FlatIron
Cross); but there was also a dramatic difference between the two ISR wagertypes
themselves. The
point of all this of course is to illustrate once again that you have to carefully
consider not only whether or not ISRbetting is appropriate for you, but also whether one
particular bettype is more suited to your validated skilllevel than another. As
your diceinfluencing skill improves, that bettype/averageprofit disparity reveals
itself more and more. Take a look…
Each
of these charts clearly illustrate how superior an ISR Steepness Ratio of 5:1 compares
when matched up against a similarly sized flatbet; so let’s look at how the
steepness of any given regressionbet can also affect each bettype’s overall
profitability. Defining
Steepness Ratios When
we talk about ISR Steepness Ratios, we are really talking about the difference of size
between the initial preregression LARGE wager and the subsequent postregression
SMALL wager.
Ø
For
example, if you wagered $12 each on the 6 and 8 Placebet, and then after one payinghit
regressed both of them down to $6 each, then you have used a 2:1 ISR Steepness Ratio.
Ø
If
you started with $18 each on the 6 and 8 and then regressed them to $6 each then you have
employed a 3:1 ISR Steepness Ratio.
Ø
Some
players even use a two or threestage regression. For
example, if you started off with $220Inside and regressed it down to $110Inside after
one hit, and then further regressed it down to $44Inside after the next hit; then you
have used a 10:5:2 regression.
Ø
For
simplicity of understanding I always use the basic $5or$6pernumberwagered amount to
signify the “:1” of the ratio. For
example the standard $22Inside wager constitutes the “:1” when we are talking
about that bettype, so a 5:1 ratio would indicate a $110Insideto$22Inside regression. Likewise, a $330Insideto$66Inside regression still
represents a 5:1 ratio. Steepness
Ratio Comparison As
you can see on this first chart for SRR7 shooters, a shallow steepness ratio of 2:1 for
both the InsideISR and the IronCross ISR leaves this player in a negative position even
though he has a substantial edge over the casino. By
simply sharpening the steepnessratio to 3:1 or higher, the SRR7 shooter regains perhand
profitability.
Ø The steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be.
When
you take that concept to the extreme and don’t use ANY regression at all
(theoretically a 1:1 steepness ratio); then your comparable shootingskill profit takes a
lot longer to get, and the chase certainly becomes less consistent and more
volatile.
Again,
the higher your SRR improves over random, the higher your rateofreturn on each of your
validatededge wagers will be. Obviously, the
better funded your session bankroll is, the better you’ll be able to take full
advantage of your current diceinfluencing skills.
How
ISR’s Offer Better Profit Dependability
Ø If a player has a fairly good dicetossing consistency, yet he has a hard time getting to any level of revenueconsistency; then chances are, he hasn't properly matched his shooting prowess with his betting prowess.
Ø
ISR’s
are especially useful to players who have developed a modest ability to influence
the dice, but haven't yet been able to turn their skills into steady earnings. With
the use of Initial Steep Regressions, a novice player can reap a larger degree of the
rewards that his derandomized throws are offering; while an advanced player can extract even
more income from his current skillset on a much more predictable basis...with each
player accomplishing his profitobjectives more often and with less overall risk
than flat Kellystyle wagering does. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor

