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Gee, There’s a FREAKIN’ Surprise!

Why does that statement issue from the mouth’s of countless box-men when I shoot the dice these days?   From the newest tables at Greektown in Detroit to the oldest tables at the Freemont Hotel in Vegas, they seem to eventually sing the same old song.

Let me paint a typical scenario.  Depending where I am, I’ll play a couple of sessions at the same casino over a number of days.  Each session may last from one to two hours, and include several opportunities for me to shoot the dice.   I’m a fairly friendly person, and the effect of my dealer-tokes may add to the camaraderie that develops with the dealers and also the various box-men.

My typical NON-POINT Come-Out roll is made up of the following numbers:

CALL   Expected % My Actual %
“Winner-7” 16.66% 72%
“Yo-winner” 5.55% 10%
“Ace-Deuce-3” 5.55%  5%
“Snake Eyes-2” 2.77% <1%
“Midnight-12” 2.77% >12%

It generally takes me five rolls of the dice before I establish the actual Point.

When I do finally establish a particular Point number, the make-up is as follows:

Point Number Dice% My Actual %
FOUR 8.33% 4%
FIVE 11.11% 5%
SIX 13.88% 40%
EIGHT 13.88% 30%
NINE 11.11% 20%
TEN 8.33% 1%


That is the “SIGNATURE” of my Precision-Shooting Point numbers, and the cause for a lot of the comments from the box-men.

Over the course of those sessions, there will be a lot of talking, kibbitzing, general wise-cracking, and joke-telling, etc.  Now here’s when that statement always seems to appear. After the box-man has seen me shoot a couple of times, he’ll start to comment when I get another turn at the dice.

If I throw more than one “Winner-7” on the come-out, he’ll say something like, “Here we go again.”

If I throw a “12-Midnight/Boxcars”, he’ll say, “Anyone wanna parlay that bet, cause he’s gonna throw it again” to anyone who had action on it.  He’ll say it not like a question, but more like a STRONG suggestion.  If I roll it again, he’ll look at the non-parlaying bettor with an “I told you so” look of scorn.  To those that did parlay it, they’ll say something like “tipping the dealers and the shooter is allowed here.”

When I establish a Point of either SIX or EIGHT, the boxman will invariably say, “Gee, there’s a FREAKIN’ surprise!”

Have my rolls gotten THAT predictable?

Yes and No!

Yes, my signature Come-Out Point may usually be SIX, but during a typical 24-roll hand that follow the setting of the first Point, I may only hit the SIX a couple more times.  At the same time, I may roll the EIGHT a total of ten or even twelve times, or vice versa.  On the other hand, during certain rolls, the SIX and EIGHT may elude me almost entirely.  Sometimes huge numbers of NINE’s, FIVE’s, FOUR’s, and TWELVE’s will show up in very disproportionate abundance.  Before a roll starts, I never know what is going to happen.  Once the dice are thrown, the hand seems to take on a life of it’s own, and then develops it’s own particular character.

Here then is a comparison of what the dice-mavens say SHOULD happen, and what Precision-Shooting says WILL happen during my “never-typical” rolls. These figures EXCLUDE the all of my Come-Out rolls, which are listed above.  These figures INCLUDE only those numbers rolled, once the Point has been established.  As above, I have rounded each figure to the nearest whole number.

2 2.77% <1%
3 5.55% <1%
4 8.33% 3%
5 11.11% 5%
6 13.88% 31%
7  16.66% 4%
8 13.88% 36%
9 11.11% 14%
10 8.33% <1%
11 5.55% <1%
12 2.77% 4%


That’s quite an unusual roll-signature.  Can it be exploited for maximum profit?  Yes, but that is actually the most difficult part of my current play.   Sure I can throw lots of numbers, but I never know what signature pattern will develop during any given roll, and so my betting methods have to continually shift and adapt as a roll progresses.  For that reason, my approach is initially quite conservative.   As the nature of the roll takes on a discernable pattern, my betting takes ever-increasing advantage, all the while locking up profit on each successive toss.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and In Life.

By:  The Mad Professor

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