The Great Northeast
(read part I here, or part II here or part III here or part IV here or part V here)
Driving into Atlantic City never seems to disappoint. It never disappoints if youve never seen the ravages of war-torn Bosnia, Croatia, Beirut, or Kabul. Although there has been millions upon millions of dollars that have been misspent to clean up and beautify the city, especially the main route into it, that cash hasnt really helped all that much.
You have to figure that a city where EVERY mayor since casino-gaming was first legalized back in the 70s has been indicted for criminal activity either while in office or shortly after leaving public-office, HAS to have some pretty deep problems that a couple of sapling trees, a few potted plants and some new street lights just wont erase.
Driving back into A/C brought back all of the memories and reasons that I had stayed away for so long. In fact, this was the trip that I had been putting off since the early summer of 2001.
Dont get me wrong; I love the tables there. I dont know whether its the higher humidity of the seashore, or something else, but the dice roll very true on Atlantic City tables. The problem is the lack of $5 tables, and the higher number of $10, $15, and $25 tables. When all of the open tables are crowded, it makes it fairly difficult to get a grooved-in consistency going with your Precision-Shooting. Crowded tables may add to the excitement of the casino experience, but it actually diminishes your profit opportunities.
With random-rollers making up about 95% of all players, there is still only about a 2% chance that one of them will have a 30-roll or better hand. So with twelve other players at your table, that simply translates into about four full rotations around the table before someone strings together a fairly hot hand. If you choose to bet on almost every shooter, your bankroll is going to take a beating while you wait for that occasional random-roller to generate the good-hand, which may not even come during your session. If you are relying upon your own shooting opportunity every 45 to 60 minutes, then you may be putting some undue stress on your own rolling because of the long waits and the risks associated with putting your bankroll at risk on all those previous random-rollers. If you are like most, it may take a roll or two or three to get grooved in with your shooting. By then, your hand may actually be over! Now you have to wait until the dice make their way around the table again. Ah yes, now I remember why I avoided returning to A/C for so long.
There are about 5% of players who set the dice and throw to a target with a consistency that would qualify them as either rhythmic-rollers, or PARR advantage players, or simply self-taught Precision-Shooters. In and of itself, thats a pretty small percentage of the total number of players. Even smaller is the number of those players that you can comfortably load-up your bets on. Believe it or not, there are perhaps twenty-five to thirty players in the entire world that I am confident enough in, to lay down some fairly large bets early into their respective dice-hands. Even then its risky, but I have learned through trial-and-error that it is a decent risk-return ratio to take.
For the rest of the good qualified shooters, I let the profit from my initial small bets on them fuel larger or more diverse bets. Its not lack of confidence in their skills, its just good common sense.
In Part IV of this article, I reported that random-rollers were costing me money. I have been keeping track of the amount of money that I lose on random-rollers. Even AFTER I have qualified them, my losses on random-rollers was running close to $100 per hour. That meant that my profit rate should have been about $100 per hour HIGHER had I avoided all but the hottest ones.
So heres an update:
That statistic held true for my entire time in Atlantic City and for the balance of my trip. In total, my lovely Ms. MP tracked virtually every shooter while I was at the tables. She noted the roll-number when I started my betting on random-rollers, and the outcomes from there on out.
Well, lets just say that I have nearly cut out almost ALL wagering on random-rollers. And miracle of miracles, my hourly win-rate has actually risen by about $70 per hour. Its not as high as the $100 per hour that I expected, but then, my discipline on staying away from random-rollers hasnt been as rock-solid as I would like it to be. The one amazing part of that, is that if my discipline is overtaken by my impatience to get in the game, my bet is usually wiped out before it even has a chance to settle itself comfortably on the Place bet number where it was wagered. Its a problem that I am still grappling with, but one that I think will be mostly eliminated within the next few months.
Ive long known that less than 5% of my total income from craps is derived from random-rollers. For me at least, this new insight provides some concrete proof as to just how much they actually COST me. That is, how much more money I could make if I didnt bet on almost any random-rollers.
If I extrapolated the number of hours each year that I have played with and bet on random-rollers, and multiplied that by the $70 per hour figure, well, it doesnt take a mathematician to determine that my bankroll would be fatter by many, many thousands of dollars.
The whole idea behind the Captains 5-Count is to avoid the quick 7-Out artist. Okay, fair enough, but what about the quick 6-roll or 8-roll artist? I now try to avoid all but the hottest random-rollers. My ego or greed sometimes tempts me into getting an early hit on a few of them, but speaking strictly from a profit-motivation basis, it just aint worth the money.
The risk-to-return ratio does not justify the outlay.
Yes, I know that we are talking about gambling, and yes, I know that all of this is happening in a casino, but if you strictly want entertainment instead of profit; then go ahead and bet it up on the random-rollers.
My motivations and decisions are a lot more financially-based.
Plain and simple, random-rollers erode my profit, while precision-shooting builds my profit. Where do you think most of my time, effort and concentration should be? The lounge and showrooms are there to provide the entertainment. The craps tables are there for profit. In an upcoming article, I tell you how I avoid boredom while I am awaiting my next shooting opportunity.
In Part VII of the Great Northeast Road Trip, I tell you about my actual in-casino results in Atlantic City, and well take a look at the specific tables and personality of each A/C casino.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
Life. The Mad
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables and in Life.
The Mad Professor