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Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter
First I have to apologize for the late newsletter. Between Crapsfest last month and various familial and work obligations, the days and weeks just have not been long enough. There have been some interesting developments in our little world of late. Stanford Wong's book has been released (see review below), and the "Breaking Vegas" episode featuring Dominator aired, giving cause to question whether the "History" Channel has even one fact checker on their staff. It's getting interesting out there folks.... Before I run out of time again, let's get on with the newsletter. Thanks for your continued support of Dice Setter.
Mindful Living, Mindful Shooting - Part II of a series The deeper you go . . . Paraphrasing that pop-culture notion
from a bygone era, the more deeply engaged in our practice we become, the higher our
dice-influencing skills can evolve. At the
same time, the higher our skills evolve, the more deeply engaged we will be. No matter what level of skill we achieve, were involved in an ongoing quest to reach a continually receding horizon of further improvement. Knowing our mind Its often said, and correctly,
that its all about the toss. We want it to be on-axis, and we want those
primary-face outcomes. Its also about
knowing the wagers that maximize our own advantage. And
its about leveraging our advantage further by acting on our current results, picking
up the familiar sweet scent of our own skill-based trail at the present moment. And its about discipline, and the qualities of
character needed to overcome the primal drives threatening to turn all that skill into the
mere wreckage of lost opportunity. Ultimately, developing and executing
our skills, no matter which ones, depends on just how well we know our mind, and
how we use it. Mad Professor recently put it
to us this way: How we THINK has a direct and dramatic effect on how we SHOOT. We cant escape the fact that our
mindset is always a factor. Its
especially true where our mental efforts are directed at accomplishing everything more
effortlessly, without interference from between the ears. But too commonly, I think, we relegate
the mental processes involved to second-class accommodations as we navigate our paths,
giving artificial preference to everything else instead.
If were going to be putting our mind to these tasks, it would seem foolhardy
to minimize its role, whatever it may be. Were not discounting any of the
myriad skills were so diligently involved with, by looking just as deeply into the
mental side. Optimum performance derives from
a synchronous blend among all the fine-tuned elements we bring with us to the table. Mindfulness might best be thought of as a
framework for our efforts, geared toward maximizing the whole process. Learning an appropriate
precision-shooting mindset I think most would agree that
monitoring our thoughts and attending to our state of mind are abilities which, like any
other, can be enhanced. We can learn to
become more consciously aware of whats going on inside our heads as we develop our
precision-shooting skills. Ultimately, we can learn to be more
attentive, inquisitive and focused in everything we do.
In fact, our experiences in everyday life provide the perfect laboratory for
finding an appropriate mindset that will assist us in reaching our precision-shooting
goals. As we learn to more deeply engage in
our everyday experiences, well become better situated to excel in all our more
esoteric endeavors. Our enjoyment in meeting
challenges, and the depth of our lifes passions; these are the source-pools for our
inspiration in everything we do, including dice. The party is just beginning If you havent yet turned on your
heels yelling Run away! like King Arthurs knights in Monty Python and
the Holy Grail, I want to thank you right here and now for exploring with me some of
the insights that the challenge of writing these articles is providing. So I do hope youll continue,
because the party is just beginning. If consistency of our toss is the sine
qua non of dice influencing, it should be obvious that consistency in our mindset will
play a role. So not only are we looking for
the right mindsetwell also want to be looking for ways to maintain it more
consistently, once something suitable has been unearthed.
Certainly, well no longer want to be taking chances that an ambiguous mindset
might somehow be working at cross purposes with all our efforts to take the gamble out of
our game. Close Encounters of a Mental Kind: The problem of Temporary Intensity
the feeling that weve got it all figured out I want to begin with some examples of
how an inconsistent mindset can lead to inconsistent precision-shooting results. A good place to start is with the crucial and
much-heralded mental factor of intensity.
Mad Professor wisely alerts us that
precision shooting depends on having a PASSION for making each roll as near perfect as it can
possibly be. Gratification from each of our
newfound successes fuels our intensity. Observation and emotion Notwithstanding our tireless efforts,
though, our encounters with near-perfection can be rationed in such ridiculously fleeting
episodes that it may seem impossible to maintain much success-fueled
intensity. We can be head-over-heels excited
one day and then things might seem almost bleak the next.
Its why such extensive practice and continued patient experimentation
are a must. Astute observation is fundamental in
these endeavors. Our vigilance to be on the
constant lookout for any semblance of success is vital.
But maintaining precision and persistence in the process is itself a skill that
takes a real commitment of time and energy to develop.[1] And unless our efforts are infused as well with the
appropriate emotional capitalthe right attitudewell not likely be
sustaining them long enough to achieve the results we intend. It shouldnt really be a surprise
that maintaining the right observational mindset requires a commitment of emotional
energy. Weve already noted there has to
be passion behind our every roll. Our
resolve to succeed is buoyed by any successes in our current results while the increasing
acuity of our observations helps fuel anticipation of further progress. Only with a synergistic commitment of all this
emotional and mental energy will we be taking full advantage of the efforts involved. A balanced attitude Yet, as Irishsetter has observed we
instead tend to reduce our concentration and intensity after having some success,
because we wrongly begin to feel as if weve finally gotten things all figured
out. MP adds that its because
were no longer working on learning and perfecting something new and
fresh. And as our intensity lags, of course, our skills
become less consistent again. Ill just add what is already
well implied by those masterful observations; while well always want to appreciate
our dice-influencing insights as worthy rewards in and of themselves for all the time and
effort required; we must simultaneously embrace them as perfect opportunities for further
progress. If were not maintaining our
balance on this particular expanse of mental high wire, were simply not reaping all
we should from our dice-setting pursuits. Its
a juggling act requiring expert-level mental and emotional agility. Seeing the future NOW So its crucial to understand
that our sometimes fleeting experiences with the intensity of near perfection,
though perhaps not ideal precisely because they can be so abbreviated and unpredictable,
nevertheless provide important, recurring points of renewed perspective and opportunity in
our continued skill-development quest. It is thanks to these episodes that we
are allowed our first quick glimpses of that receding horizon weve talked about,
just when it looks to be, for a brief time anyway, right at our doorstep! These alluring experiences are the
gentle onshore breezes from the horizon of our own next level of development. Making passage . . . Well only be heading there, however, if we open up the storm
shutters and let the fresh air in. We must be
paying extremely close attention, resolved to put our mind to the new tasks were
continually involved withwe must maintain our intensity. We need to be blending a genuine
feeling of appreciation for the sense of progress were experiencing with an
unfaltering discipline of continued commitment and a mature expectation that further
progress will be ours. Only with such a balanced attitude and
tuned-in state of mind will we be granted passage as each next-appearing portal of opportunity draws close. In later installments, well
explore how we might increase our sensitivity to these opportunities as they occur and
allow the bloom of our passion for the process to take hold more readily and more deeply
over time. In the meantime, our attitude now
is always going to be inexorably tied to the depth by which our skills will be
enhanced later. Close
Encounters of another Mental
Kind:
The problem of Temporary Intensity
induced by impatience and frustration Theres another
temporary-intensity phenomenon that Im nearly certain is also commonly experienced. How many times have you been working
at the rig or a live game, and noticed that although you were warmed up and felt
comfortable, the results were just repeatedly not up to your hopes and expectations? And how many times when that has happened, have
you said to yourself something like, Okay, this is it; Ill give it one more
try, and then you finally shoot the way you know you can. Maybe the problem was simply having
waited so long to really get down to shooting.
Recognizing a successful mindset And before you respond saying, I
always shoot with the same intensity, you have to first look very closely and
honestly to ascertain the true qualities of the mind-states that prevailed during the
first rolls that disappointed, and distinguish them from what went on in your mind during
the successful later roll. Doing this
requires constant mindful observation of whats going on inside our heads during both
our successful and less-successful rolls. When we do this, we can begin to gather important additional clues
for reducing the frequency of our mediocre rolls due to an ambiguous mindset, and to
replicate the successes derived from properly controlled intensity more often. Far too often, in my estimation,
shooters will go through exactly the scenario I mentioned, noticing and reporting only the
mechanicsthat theyd made a minor correction to their grip; or re-targeted; or
changed their trajectory; or rotated the permutation of their setbut inevitably,
they remember little regarding their mindset. Im suggesting its at least
as likely that it was their elevated resolve to succeed and the resulting higher
focus and concentrationtheir renewed intensitythat helped them clarify the
mechanical adjustments required and then to execute them, thus bringing about the improved
result. Yet, there is still a deficiency
associated with intensity when its induced by our frustration with failure and our
impatience to succeed. When extra effort
is required to arrive at an appropriate level of concentration and intensity, our overall
effort is merely symptomatic of a still-not-yet-perfect mindset for optimal performance. And like its earlier-discussed cousin,
temporary intensity due to spontaneous discovery; short-term intensity as a
mere antidote to frustration and impatience will be of limited service unless we ensure
that its assisting us in our efforts to improve.
Replicating Intensity We must, therefore, be taking
appropriate steps toward replicating the same intensity in our mindset sooner, more
frequently, and for longer duration, but also without requiring extra effort. But we can only accomplish these goals
if our initial and continued insights are consciously recognized as the opportunities they
are from the outsetno matter what seems to be their cause, and no matter how
fleeting they may be. Then, we must be prepared to adroitly
incorporate the fruits of our insights seamlessly into an ever-expanding
precision-shooting skillset. Of course, all this is far more easily
said than . . . begun. Unfortunately, the only alternative is
suffering the sometimes chip-rack-purging symptoms of a malady we might appropriately
call, temporary-intensity deficit disorder (TIDD).
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I hope weve gained a foothold on
the kinds of things well continue exploring as we work to find a more consistent
precision-shooting mindset. When the
feng-shui, voodoo, trance dances and mojo-oil begin to lose their powers, lets just
look inside of ourselves instead. So well be returning to the
topic of intensity, balancing our assessment with attention to the effortless calm
well hope to find residing at its core. And
well further explore why the most viable ground for cultivating a more consistent
precision-shooting mindset is really just our everyday lives. In the meantime, please
rememberin everything we dothe more deeply engaged we become, the
higher the skills we will attain... And
vice versa! [1]
For some insightful discussions of some of the skills
associated with observation, see the late MickeyDs articles, Observations, or Is Your Game in the Toilet?
and Notes, Notes, Notes as well as
Part I of Mad Professorss Shooting Bible
series and Irishsetters article,
Fail. Fail Again. Fail Better.
Wong On Dice - A Review Stanford Wong's new book, Wong on Dice is a genuinely difficult book for me to review. Previously, the published work on dice influencing theory was written/co written by "popular" authors who were long on hype, and short on fact, or in Yuri Kononenko's and Heavy's case, their books have a cult following, but unless you're already somewhat familiar with dice influencing techniques, you may not even know the books exist. So, to this point, the casinos have written off dice influencing basically because the folks representing the theory to the general public were not credible. Now, we have a very a prominent AND credible gambling author writing about dice influencing. Frankly, I think this book will bring unwanted casino scrutiny to our methods. At the same time, Wong tackles some dice influencing issues from a completely unique point of view. It's also difficult to review this book because it primarily deals with using the hardways set in the context of being a sevens avoidance set. As far as maximizing advantage play opportunities, we already know that the hardways set is not the proper way to go. In fact, Wong alludes to the fact that a larger advantage can be gained using other sets provided the shooter can keep the dice on axis at a higher than random level. We already know that, and unfortunately, the idea of using true sevens avoidance sets like the V-2 and V-3 are almost afterthoughts in the book. The key to getting to the good stuff in this book is to not get hung up on the hardways set theory. If you're going to get bent out of shape that he promotes the hardways set, don't buy the book. Even though I disagree with a great deal in this book, I did find his analysis intereresting, and frankly, I could correlate some of it to the way I apply dice influencing theory. Coming from an advantage play background enables Wong to offer a unique prospective on money management, bankroll and wagering. Again, I don't agree with all of it, but I did find it intriguing. The fact that he shoots down the 45 degree throwing angle and the big arm swing pendulum throw is an added bonus, despite the fact that we've already come to that conclusion years ago. There are individual pages in this book that will be reference points for a long while to come. The book is a quick read and has a good mix of facts sprinkled with war stories. The "dice challenge" is particularly compelling because it was carried out quite publicly on his forum. Give him credit, Wong puts his money where his mouth is! There are also some surprisingly insightful hidden nuggets in this book. The one thing that I particularly appreciated in this book was the fact Wong was generous giving credit to folks like Yuri Kononenko, Sharpshooter, Dice Coach and others who have influenced or helped him along his dice influencing journey. Now for the negative. Wong has been an advantage player for years, but he's really only been playing craps and attempting dice influencing for a comparatively short time. I do not doubt for a moment his expertise in analyzing the game from a mathematical standpoint. The weakness in this book is his limited experience as a dice influencer gives him a limited breadth of shooting knowledge. I feel the book would have benefited from him being exposed to a broader range of philosophies. In the relatively short time that he's been attempting dice influencing techniques, I feel he just hasn't yet been exposed to those philosophies. Despite its weaknesses, and my general
disagreement with the hardways set philosophy, I enjoyed the book quite a bit. And
having recently seen Wong shoot the dice, I can say without reservation that he practices
what he preaches.
Shooting From The
Donts
A Journey of Opportunity - Part VIII Daddy,
How Many Stars Are In The Universe? "MP,
on average how many sessions per day, hands per session, and money per wager would it take
to make $1000 a day shooting from the Don'ts? In
a nutshell...it doesn't take much
but it could take a lot. It
all depends on what your base-bet is and how much Odds (if any) you back your DP line-bet
with...and of course, it really depends on how good your shooting actually is. When
you add shooting-frequency to those factors, it becomes pretty much a straight-forward
calculation. Let
me give you a perfect world example: Ø Lets
start with a $25 flat-bet on the Dont Pass. Ø Well
ignore any Come-Out bets for a moment and get right to the Point. Ø Lets
say we roll a 5 as the PL-Point. Ø If
you have a validated dice-influencing edge over the casino; then as a Darkside-shooter,
full-Odds has to figure into your betting regimen. If
you dont have an edge, then you are merely gambling and this discussion is
moot. Ø At
a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds table, the casino will allow your Darkside Odds to be wagered at up to
6x your flat DP-bet amount. Ø If
your DP line-bet is $5; then you are permitted to Lay up to $30 in Odds no matter what the
Point is. Ø In
this example, our $25 DP-bet will be backed up with $150 in 6x-Odds. Ø Lets
say that we can pretty well 7-Out almost every time we need to. Thats not to say that we can 7-Out on
demand, but rather that we can almost always 7-Out before accidentally repeating the
PL-Point. Ø A
DP line-away winner will pay us $25 on the flat-bet and at a 2:3 payoff for the PL-Point
of 5, our Odds generate another $100 in revenue. In
total, we now have $125 to the good. Ø A
PL-Point of 4 or 10 will generate $100 in net-winnings for the same $25 DP and $150 in
Odds wager; while a similarly funded DP-bet against the PL-Point of either the 6 or 8 will
spin-off $150 in total earnings. Ø If
we can manage to do that for just eight of our hands in a row ($125 average-win per hand
times 8 hands), well easily get to our $1000/day win-goal with very little problem. However,
we dont live in a perfect world, and sometimes we cant always 7-Out before
unintentionally repeating our anti-Point number. Therefore
we have to take our shooting-ability average (the percentage of times when we CAN
intentionally 7-Out) and multiply that by our average-win per hand. Ø Lets
say that we can intentionally 7-Out eight-times-out-of-ten.
That means that well be able to throw a 7-Out winner 80% of the time
without an accidental PL-Point repeater. Ø We
take our average profit-per-winning-hand ($125) and multiply it by our 80% success-rate. This gives us an average profit-per-winning-hand
of $100. However those two-out-of-ten
DP-losers reduce that figure even lower. If
our average bet per hand is $175 ($25 DP with 6x-Odds of $150); then 20% of that amount
($35) also has to be subtracted from our win-rate. As
a result, our weighted average profit-per-hand is $65. Ø Of
course, the simpler way to figure this out is to add up all your winning hands and
subtract all of your losing hands and then divide the net-profit into the total number of
hands thrown; that will give you the same average profit/hand figure. Ø In
either case, if our daily win-goal is $1000 and we know that we can generate an average of
$65 in net-winnings per hand; then its easy to see that well need to toss
about fifteen (15) hands per day to reach that objective. While
$65 in net-winnings/hand may not seem like a lot of money when compared to the $175 that
you have to put out on the layout to get it; you have to maintain a proper perspective and
understand that that $65 net-amount INCLUDES your losing hands as well. As
always, we have to keep a steady eye on the volatility of our skills. That means that we should be using a sampling of at
least ten hands to figure out what our current average is. For better accuracy, I like to use my last fifty
hands as a sliding-scale measurement to determine where my most recent skill-level average
is at. The
more consistently we can produce our intended DP 7-Out, the more money-making faith we can
put in our dice-influencing skills
and obviously then, the more money we can back
those skills with. In
this case, a $65 net-profit derived from a $175 DP-with-Odds investment yields an average
return of 38% on each and every hand. The
closer we come to understanding how much money a modestly skilled Dark-shooter can make,
the better prepared we are to shape our own compellingly profitable game-strategy. Well
return to this discussion in a moment, but its time to wheel the Stuttgart-powered
chariot into valet parking at our next Darkside destination. Rollin
The Bones at Turning Stone
If
it werent for the 135,000 cars that pass the Turning Stone Casino on the New York
State (Thomas E. Dewey) Thruway on a daily basis, this place would be a hidden gem in the
gently rolling landscape of NYs Central Leatherstocking region. Instead it is a lively and effervescent gaming
operation that is hopping during each and every one of the twenty-four hours in a gambling
day. The
Oneida Nation of Indians operate this 120,000 square foot behemoth without need or want of
outside management from dark empire death-stars like Harrahs. Instead, they run a tight, well-oiled machine
which just happens to contain more than half-a-dozen incredibly neutral-rolling craps
tables. To
be fair, my opinion of Turning Stone is a little biased.
From
the time they opened in 1993 to this very day; I havent encountered a bad (read:
major losing) session there since, well, ever.
Now before you start looking around for your never-close-enough-when-you-need-it
can of Bullshit Repellant, let me quickly add that a winning session can mean
as little as a $1 net-win
and I can candidly tell you that more than a couple of
those thousand or so Turning Stone sessions did end up only producing a buck or
two
however most of them turned out to be significantly better than that. The
important point though, is that I go into every casino expecting to win
and I
go into the Turning Stone Resort absolutely convinced that Im going to win. Like I said, some of those wins are downright
tiny, but when you keep your perspective and you combine a winning attitude with
level-headed betting and a relentless pursuit of steadily improving Precision-Shooting
skills; an undeniable profit-making strategy inevitably emerges. Dead
Horse There
Whip In My Hand Here
Hmm,
What To Do?
A
significant part of that indefatigable profit-making strategy is the crucially important
element of low-level Loss-Limits. That
simply means that if you keep your loss-limits low enough, you arent constantly
having to fill in all of your previous losses just to break-even. Unfortunately for most advantage-players, when
that critical factor is missing from their game (or if its set too high); then they
make the entire profit-making journey much more difficult and wrought with many more
discipline-testing obstacles that they just dont encounter (or have to deal with) if
their loss-limits are set and maintained at a more reasonable lower level. If
you lose $500 today, that means youll need to win at least $500 during your next
session just to break even. If instead, you
restricted your loss-limit at say $150 or even $200, then your next $500 win would put you
$300 or more ahead of the game. It
aint complicated folks, its just common sense.
Ø Most
players know that they can accomplish significantly higher win-averages if they would
apply lower loss-limits to their own game, but they lack the self-discipline to see it
through. If you let yourself down often
enough, youll end up being convinced that its virtually impossible for anyone
to do it. Ø The
shallower you keep your losses, the more you can use your subsequent winning sessions to
produce tangible net-profit which can be used to build your bankroll and fuel your
lifestyle
or at least fuel your car. As
an advantage-player, you have to be brutally honest with yourself as to how deeply your
own skills will allow your loss-limit to go. Ø To
overcome half a dozen 50% of bankroll loss-limits, you have to be a pretty good shooter. So you have to honestly ask yourself whether your
customary loss-limit percentage is so high that your current win/loss ratio will make it
almost impossible to ever produce a tangible overall net-win. If
you fear the answer to that question; then you already know the solution. High-percentage
loss-limits actually limit your chances of EVER turning an overall net-profit. Session
One
I
arrived at Turning Stone quite a bit later than planned.
A late-afternoon meeting with some associates in Rochester ran a little
longer than I expected. As
usual, the mid-evening (9 p.m.) mid-week (Wednesday) tables were fairly busy, yet two of
them were still set at $5. Along with the two
similarly full $10 layouts, there was a $15 one that only had a small handful of decidedly
unenthusiastic players whose steadily decreasing bankrolls looked like they had been on
the receiving end of a Mike Tyson punch-fest. When
I bought in at the $15 table and started shooting from the Darkside, my first
Point-then-Out hand was the last straw for a couple of them. Frankly I couldnt blame them for leaving. The table had obviously been brutal well before I
even got there, but my appearance and of course the subsequent appearance of yet another
quick 7-Out from somebody that was obviously TRYING to 7-Out, was more than enough
to convince two
then three
then four of them to call it a night. For
one of the few times during this wrong-way journey, I was actually accompanied on the
DP-line by two other intrepid bettors who joined me about fifteen minutes after everyone
else had abandoned ship. I
was doing fairly well in terms of fending for myself as a Dark-shooter. I wasnt making any hand-over-fist kind of
money, but it was certainly steady enough to keep me interested. It
was taking a range of two to eight rolls to throw my intended 7-Out. Unfortunately I did manage to shoot myself in the
foot on a couple occasions
one was even a bull-frogged two-throw PL-repeater. Although any DP loss will put a slight dent
into your session-winnings (especially when you have full-Odds out there), its the overall
NET-win (or loss) that is the true barometer of how effectively your
dice-influencing skills are doing. Using that
measure, I was sufficiently pleased with the outcome. Just
as a side note, Turning Stone recently discovered that the rest of the world has entered
the 21st century and as a result, they now offer 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds on their
tables. For the Darksider, that means you can
lay up to six times (6x) your flat DP or DC-bet in maximum allowable Odds. My
two back-line cohorts were doing pretty well with their own Dont-shooting as well. They were a little hesitant as far as laying full
Odds against the Point, but their efficiency in terms of snapping off fairly rapid
7-Outs made quick work of their efforts. The
three of us continued the same DP shooting routine for close to an hour. Once I determined that their Precision-Shooting
skills were for real, I joined them on the Dont-line for each of their subsequent
hands. After a couple more go-rounds I even
added full inverse Odds to my line bet. They
both commented on my apparent faith in them. I
simply replied that the dice cubes were behaving more like ice-cubes, so I had to go
with the trend. A knowing nod and
subtle smile was all it took to acknowledge everything else that I wasnt
saying. Post-Session
Notes
I
called it an evening after about two hours at the table. Ø Between
fifteen and twenty minutes of that time had been spent solo-shooting while the balance had
been spent with no more than five other players sharing the shooting duties. Ø Over
that period, my initial red and green Christmas-colored chip-rail had blossomed into a
more favorable shade of St. Patricks Day green and black with a sprinkling of Easter
mauve (purple). Ø I
resolved to either use a higher base-bet if I got back on that same table the next day, or
to use my Doey-Dont Odds Stretcher Method to generate more
Odds-revenue and less Come-Out volatility. Speaking
of my C-O Game Within A Game approach; it was fair but definitely not great. Ø Less
than 15% of my net-win from Session One resulted from Come-Out Horn-bet winners. Ø Further
compounding that was the fact that almost all of my Horn-win-fueled pressed-up World-bets
were negated by subsequent C-O DP 7-losers
followed by a Point-establishing
box-number; so it had the unmistakable feeling of one-step forward and two-steps back
déjà vu
all over again. Ø I
also resolved to shoot a few after-session tosses once I got squared away in my suite. Ø Not
a hint of heat, derision or contempt of any sort was detectable from the crew, box,
pit-folks or the new-to-his-duties Casino Host who introduced himself about midway through
my session. Ø Though
comp-levels at some of the more mainstream resorts have been curtailed to varying degrees,
my host at Turning Stone was doing his best impression of Nadia Komenich as far as bending
over backwards to assist all of my accommodation needs and wants. Ø Unbeknownst
to me, he had upgraded my previously offered Patio-suite to a slightly better one in their
golf-centric Lodge. Although I was pleased
with the luxuriously appointed accommodations (which are reminiscent of a low-end Four
Seasons
if there is a such a thing), the Lodge itself is a fair distance away from
the casino, which means you should pack a lunch if you arent used to walking long
distances. Ø Hotel
check-in took a grand total of ninety pain-free seconds to complete. As
intended, I did a few after-session tosses in my suite just to properly correct what I
already knew was an on-axis double-pitch problem. It
was most annoying and obviously most troubling while using my C-O S-6 set. I wasnt perfectly satisfied with the
immediate results from those adjustments, but I resolved to work on it again in the
morning before heading over to the tables. Session
Two
Me and you and a dog named Boo The
next morning I made one of those in-room coffees before I headed to the tables, but it
tasted like the bottom of a moldy old golf bag
just dont ask me how I know what
that tastes like. I
made a few cursory practice tosses, but without the stimulation of sufficient caffeine
jet-fuel, I wasnt surprised that my throw still looked a little ragged. I
hiked over to the casino and got a truly memorable cup of go-juice from their Stone Roast
Coffee bar. You can use comp-points off of
your Diamond Club players card to pay for pretty much any food, merchandise or services
that are found at Turning Stone. I
was surprised the tables were so busy at that hour of the morning. Apparently a dog enthusiasts (Kanine
Kollectibles) convention was being held in the nether regions of the resort, and it
looked like half of them (including all of the eccentrically dressed ones) were
sniffing around the table-games pit. I got an
SL-2 spot at a semi-crowded $15 table between two fairly sane looking players whom I was
pretty confident werent going to intentionally mark their carpet-territory where I
was standing or to start humping my leg without provocation, so I settled in. These
were not the carefully coiffed dog-handlers that you would see at the Westchester Kennel
Club. Rather, they wore gaily-colored brocade
vests adorned with enough pins and patches to make a full-regalia outlaw biker look
downright Republican. I
started with $25 on the Dont Pass and rebuffed the idea of using my usual $25
matching World-bet because my warm-up had looked barely passable. In its place I put out a $1 straight-up wager on
the 12-Midnight, and instead of my usual S-6 Come-Out set, I opted to go straight for a
Point-establishing number by using the conventionally arranged V-2. I set the 8 as my anti-Point avoidance-number. A couple of rolls later
up sprang the
confidence-building 7-Out. Building
Your First Hand Confidence
To
my mind, the first hand of the first session often sets the tone for the rest of the day,
and thats why I always like to produce a first-hand profit (even if its a tiny
one). The more confidence you approach a
session with, and the more that it is confirmed and bolstered by a first-hand win; the
better youll be able to recognize and capitalize on each and every subsequent
advantage-play opportunity that comes along. In
other words, you wont be trigger-shy when the right situation presents itself. Thats
not to say that you cant recover if your first hand is less than ideal. Rather, its easier to get into the
right frame of mind and to stay in the right frame of mind if your first-hand
shooting produces positive results. In light
of the less-than-spectacular no-caffeine warm-up that I had shot just a short time
earlier
that first-hand, first-session quick-Out was exactly what I needed to let me
know that my Dark-shooting was dialed-in sufficiently to bring about those intended
results. Session
Two
contd A
few players came and went over the next ninety-minutes, but the damp clouds of coolness
hung over the table like a wet dog blanket. Everyone
seemed to be throwing more money on the layout in apparent hope that things would turn
around or at least warm up to the point where someone could throw more that four or five
rolls before Mr. Ugly reared his head. On the
other hand, I was hoping that the steady coolness would drive away all the current players
AND discourage any new ones from joining in, but that was not the case. The
upside was that the dice came to me about once every twenty minutes or so, and although
some of my rolls ran a little longer than I would have wished for, they all ended with a
7-Out without any painful Point-repeaters in the interim. After
each hand, Id take a quick chip-census to see just how big my current
profit-population had grown to. Surprisingly
enough, I reached my daily win-goal after just one-and-a-half hours. Although I wasnt calling it a day, I did
call it a session and got a comp to the Seasons Harvest buffet. What
Does It Take To Make Your Daily Nut
contd
I
get a lot of mail from guys who just cant seem to wrap their mind around the idea of
consistently hitting a daily-win goal of $1000. The
reality is, the math is the easy part
its the execution that even the most
seasoned of Precision-Shooters have the most difficulty with. I
know Ive flogged the match your bets to your shooting ability
horse until it dropped dead before it even hit the final five furlongs; but it is as true
now as it was when I first started harping on it on the public dice boards seven or eight
years ago. Unfortunately some players are
just too stubborn and set in their ways to adapt their game to properly suit their
incredible dice-influencing talents. A
Darkside shooters plan of attack does not have to be complicated or contain all sorts of
advantage-eroding hedges and non-performing props. Instead,
lets take a look at a straight forward wholly uncomplicated approach to determine
HOW a very modestly skilled dice-influencer can achieve what at first seems like an
ambitious daily win-goal. Ø We'll
ignore any Come-Out action for the time being. While
you may have a verified edge there too, well overlook those bankroll-builders for
the moment and focus on the most basic of requirements to turn some of the casinos
money into your money. Ø In
this scenario, your flat-DP bet will always be backed up with 6x-Odds. At a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds table, the Dont shooter
only has to remember that his DP or DC can be backed with a max of six times his flat bet. Ø Well
also ignore the use of a full or partial Doey-Don't Odds Stretcher (which is
fully discussed in previous chapters of this series).
Though that method is quite valid for a Darkside shooter to get more Odds
and less flat-bet C-O volatility, well keep this example as simple as possible. Heres
where we can start to figure out how effective your 7-Out shooting has to be to cover that
$1000 nut, and obviously how many hands its going to take to get there. Ø You
have to figure out how many times on average that you are able to intentionally
7-Out versus how often you shoot yourself in the foot by repeating the PL-Point. You should figure this out on a percentage basis. For example, if you can intentionally 7-Out
eight-times-out-of-ten-hands, then your first-point effectiveness is 80%. Ø Again,
your first-point effectiveness percentage is based on the number of times with
which you can purposely 7-Out without unintentionally repeating your DP-Point
first. Ø Armed
with that information, you then take your typical DP w/Odds payout and multiply it by the
first-point effectiveness percentage that you just calculated. Ø Now
obviously, the size of your base-bet will determine the amounts of Odds that youll
lay, and therefore control what your average winning payout will be. Ø For
this example well stick with a flat DP line wager of $10 and $60 in Odds, so
lets determine how much a perfect 7-Out hand pays for each box-number: ·
4
or 10 produces a net profit of $40 ·
5
or 9 produces a net profit of $50 ·
6
or 8 produces a net profit of $60 ·
On
average then, a winning DP bet with full-Odds (at a 3x, 4x, 5x table) produces an average
net-profit of $50 Ø Again,
the reason we use our "first-Point" 7-Out percentage (80% in this example) is
because any subsequent 2nd or 3rd PL-Point 7-Out winnings will obviously only partially
offset the cost of your first PL-Point loss. Lets
see how those losing hands affect our average winnings-per-hand. Ø Out
of lets say 10-hands, we have 8 winning ones and 2 losing ones (where we
accidentally shoot ourselves in the foot before finally 7ing out on our subsequent 2nd
or 3rd attempt during the same hand). Ø That
means our 8 winning hands will produce an average payout of $50 each (for a total
gross-win of $400), but our two losing hands will each subtract $70 from that figure (for
a total of $140 in gross-losses). Subtracting
one from the other ($400 in gross-wins minus $140 in gross-losses) leaves you with a
net-win of $260. Ø If
you divide that net $260 win into the ten hands that it took to produce it, you get an
average profit-per-hand of $26. Ø Now
at first blush, a $26/hand profit doesnt look all that great, but for a $10 DP with
Full-Odds player (a $70 investment), that $26 represents an overall 39%
return-on-investment on every hand (including the losing ones). Ø Granted,
a $26/hand profit doesnt look all that great either if your daily win-goal is set at
$1000 because it would mean youd have to throw about 40 hands per day just to get
there, but it also demonstrates that you clearly dont have to pin your hopes on
hitting all kinds of exotic parlays in order to make decent money either. Ø In
a gaming jurisdiction where you have a wide choice of sparsely-populated tables, 40 hands
per day (for the $10 DP bettor to reach his daily win-goal) is no big deal, but in a
market with a limited number of casinos and few open tables, that could mean putting in a
22-hour work-day. Obviously that isnt
practical, but you could use your steadily increasing bankroll to fuel a higher bet-level
while concurrently seeking out higher-denomination, lower-population tables. Ø Again,
most players will look at the $26/hand profit figure and smirk at the lack of excitement
that this type of Darkside shooting generates. Admittedly
it may not stir your loins and get you all lathered up with restless enthusiasm like an
octuple parlay on the 12-Midnight would, but then again, we are talking about an every-hand
profit here instead of a once-every-Supreme-Court-nomination-cycle kind of
strategy. Once
you figure out your average-win/hand (based on your bet-amount comfort-level and your
sufficiently-sized bankroll), youll be able to readily figure out just how many
hands it will take to get to whatever your daily profit-goal is. Session
Three
Ya Mean All I Gotta Do Is 7-Out?!
My
third session saw me playing at the same $15 session-one table for about forty-five
minutes before one of my table-mates came to the realization that I was deliberately
trying to 7-Out. He said, Hey,
youre intentionally trying to 7-Out
why would you wanna do that? I acknowledged that I was at least HOPING
that I would. By
the look on his face, I knew that he couldnt quite fathom why I was purposely trying
to lose. Even after explaining that
my Dont Pass bet would win if I 7d-Out, he said he still couldnt
understand why anyone would play the game like that.
He said the idea of the game was to hold the dice for as long as
possible
not to give them up as soon as possible, and wondered why I
didnt just pass the dice back to him. I
countered that I thought the idea of the game was to make some money regardless of
how long anyone hung onto the dice. I
elicited a barely suppressed belly laugh from the two base-dealers and the box-lady when I
explained to him that the planets werent aligned properly to allow for good shooting
right now and that I knew the universe wasnt in harmony so why fight the
cosmos
the dice WANT to 7-Out
why not let them. He
looked at me like some kind of weirdo and never said another word to me for the rest of
his session which went on for another 50 minutes. My
bizarre dead-pan explanation apparently got the intended response that I was looking for. During his remaining time, he lost his original
$500 buy-in as well as two further $300 re-buys as well
mostly by betting against me. I
played solo on that table for another 25-minutes or so after he left. A few curious players stopped by to observe the
game for a while, but never bet. I think
Dylanfreaks Scare Em Off By Shooting From The Donts
method of keeping the table empty has a LOT of merit.
Though it may not empty out a full table, his scare them off
concept has the effect of keeping a solo-shooting session just that way for much, much
longer than youd normally expect. My
hat goes off to Dylanfreak for that fine idea. I
was tempted to stay and play a little longer, but I had a meeting in nearby Syracuse with
some former associates who arent used to being kept waiting. After my cash-out at the cage, I walked past the
still-empty table that I had been playing at. The
dealers and pit-folks tried to beckon me over for one more hand. I cordially declined, but promised to seek them
out at the same time tomorrow. Session
Four
Late Start
Early Profit
I
didnt get back to the craps table until late in the evening the following day. For
the first time in several sessions, my Come-Out Game Within A Game
strategy finally got back on track. At first
blush, throwing Horn-numbers should be as easy as throwing a 7. Theres six ways out of thirty-six for a
random-roller to throw a 7, and there are also six ways to throw a Horn-number too (one 2
and one 12, plus two 3s and two 11s)
so it should be just as easy
to throw one of those as it is to throw a 7, right! As
some of you know, the World-bet has formed the basis of my C-O game for a very long time
(both from the Rightside as well as the Darkside); however, I had been in a Horn-shooting
slump for almost a week and it was starting to weigh on my mind. I didnt have any problem whatsoever in
throwing the 7 component of the World-bet, but the other parts (the 2, 3, 11
and 12) had gone on a disturbingly long sabbatical. Much
to my relief, it came back early in session-four
well rested
and ready to rock
n roll after an extended exile in random regions unknown. My
C-O on the first hand (using the S-6 set in its traditional configuration) produced
a 3
then a 2
then a 3
then an 11
then a PL-Point of Hard-10. Clearly thats only one primary-face outcome
in five results, but like I said it was the first time I had hit back-to-back-to-back
Horn-winners in about a week. A few rolls
later, I got the 7-Out that I was looking for. The
C-O sequence for my second hand resembled a fraternal twin to the first one. It produced a 3
then a 2
then three
11s in a row before re-establishing the Hard-10 as the anti-Point again. It took three more rolls before I was rewarded
with my 7-Out winner. By the way, two out of
those three Point-cycle rolls were also Horn-numbers, but I wasnt on any of
them
DUH! My
confidence in terms of aggressively pressing the C-O Horn-hits after their first
appearance had certainly returned. It never
fails to surprise me how much confidence just two or three good hands in a row can restore
your shooting-faith and buoy the trust in your betting. My
C-O World-bet action typically looks like this: I
start with $25 on the DP and $25 on the World-bet Ø If
the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my
DP-wager. That means that my first hit on an
11 generates a net-profit of $30. Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet
for my DP-wager. That means that the W-B 3
(along with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is
pressed) of $55. Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the
same initial bet for the DP-line. That means
that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12
generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105. On
the very next C-O decision... Ø If
the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP. If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but
I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows. Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an
on-axis C-O DP 7-loser. Ø If
my second Come-Out roll results is an 11; then I replace the DP and increase the
World-bet by one $25 unit. Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units
(of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial
$25 bet on the DP. Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three
base-units (a $75 increase). On
any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale. Ø I
press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12
rolls. If
I'm fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the
previous scale" thing, as in
Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls. The
next progression (if another Horn-number repeats again), looks like this: Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls. Ø I
press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls. At
this point, your World-bet could reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-units) if youve
had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one of those
steps (like if the 2 or 12 has been rolling). It
is also the point where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable Horn-bet
payout-level at many casinos. The
C-O for my third hand finally started producing a few more of the primary-face 2s
and 12s that make the Horn-bet so productive.
Again, I started out with a 3
followed by another 3, but then two
2s in a row followed were by an additional 3 and an 11, followed yet again by
another secondary-face 3, then a 12
and finally an off-axis PL-Point of 9. My shooting went a little downhill from
there as I threw every other number except either the hoped-for 7 or the hoped-against 9. My tablemates were starting to think that things
were finally starting to warm up. It took
another five tosses before I finally managed to throw the 7-Out. My
fourth, fifth and sixth-hand C-O were nowhere nearly as dramatic or profitable as the
three previous ones, but my World-action still produced some sizeable earnings
nonetheless. My
seventh hand started out well enough with four Horn-winners on the Come-Out, but my
Point-cycle offered up a near disaster as I managed to shoot myself in the foot twice. I repeated my first PL-Point of 8 as well as my
second Point of 6. With another 6x-Odds
backing up my line-bet, I was not feeling overly cocky
but my confidence wasnt
none too bruised either. I knew that both of
those Point-losers had been strong on-axis S-6 possibilities right from the start, so I
wasnt about to abandon my game-plan simply because the dice were mostly staying
on-axis and doing pretty much what I wanted for them to do, albeit, not in the
primary-face All-7 configuration that would bring about my 7-Out reward. It took the Darksiders prayer of third-Points-a-charm
before I finally 7d-Out around the twenty-fifth roll. Fortunately
my eighth through tenth hands didnt reprise my seventh-hand disaster. However, my Come-Out progression on the
World-action during those next three hands didnt come close to surpassing the C-O
money that I made during my third hand either. Though
I did get back up to the third and fifth progression during my ninth and tenth hands
respectively, so I was pleased about that. Moreover, I was thrilled that my Come-Out Game Within A Game strategy of aggressive Horn-pressing was definitely back on track. Added to the profit that my Odds-bets were generating during the Point-cycle, those two separate elements made the Turning Stone segment of my Darkside journey into the most profitable one yet. I hope youll join me on the next leg.
Heavy's Motorcity Craps Clinic - Join Heavy in Detroit, July 16, 2005
Heavy's August in the Delta Clinic - Join Heavy in Tunica, August 19-21, 2005 If you have any comments or ideas for future issues, feel free to email me at ed@dicesetter.com And as always, we are for contributors with a fresh perspective. K now someone who would be interested in receiving future editions of Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter,Good Luck! |
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