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Discipline and the Art of Precision Shooting In a
recent e-mail that I received, a site visitor was lamenting that his precision shooting
was not reaping the huge profits at the tables that he had expected. He had played the night before with three
opportunities to throw the dice. His first
hand yielded a net loss. I sevened out after about five throws. I hit a few numbers but I had pressed my place
bets just before the seven showed for a net loss for that shoot. He said
that his second and third hand yielded only slightly better outcomes, making a couple of
passes in addition to hitting some of his place bets. Still,
in each shoot, I left a bunch of money on the table.
I showed only a small profit (about $25) for my three turns shooting the
dice. Thank god I played conservatively when
other players were shooting, so I colored up plus $124. Its the last part of his statement that got me thinking. While other players were shooting, he showed discipline and good judgment. However, when it was his turn to throw the bones, he threw his money on the table as if there was no tomorrow. We (precision shooters) are partially to blame. I believe our session reports and posts on various message boards celebrating long throws and repeating numbers can skew the expectations of others, especially those who are recent converts of the art of precision shooting. The reality, in its simplest form, is that in the
long run most precision shooters will only alter the probability table by percentage
points in the range of 5% to 20%. Sure, we are going to have our long hands of 15 plus
throws, but its not going to be every time were handed the dice. Even the best dice sets for avoiding the seven
have a 1 in 8 probability of the devil. Thats
significantly better than the 1 in 6 chance that random rollers face, but it doesnt
mean that you should triple or quadruple your money at risk just because the stickman has
passed you the dice. Dont get me wrong, I think you can be more aggressive when its your turn to shoot, but you cant go nuts. Bank some profit before you press your bets. Have reasonable expectations about precision shooting. Understand the difference between confidence and arrogance as a precision shooter. The former will guarantee profits in the long run and the latter will lead to disappointment. (Besides that, dealers love to gloat when a precision shooter sevens out early) Utilize the same betting discipline when you are shooting that you use when others are shooting. Precision shooting is not a magic wand for
guaranteed success, it is only one of many tools in your craps arsenal.
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