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The When, Where, Why, What and How of
Signature Numbers For
the accomplished Precision-Shooter, the difference between inconsistent wins and consistent
profitability is the capacity to recognize and then capitalize on your primary
Signature Numbers. Thats what this
series is all about, and today we are specifically looking at ways for you to REDUCE
your risk while you INCREASE your profit. Lets
Take it From the Top
There
are a few critical steps that most pros use to lock-in an early profit, yet still
keep their bets in action to take advantage of any continued hits. Here are a few of them: Regress
EARLY
That
means that the initial bets of your Top Three or Four Signature Numbers have to be large
enough to have one winning-hit pay for the reduced amount of your total regressed bets. For example, lets say that your Top Four SNs,
in declining order are: 8, 6, 9, and 5. We
want to have Place-bets on our Top Three or Four for at least ONE HIT. We then want to reduce those Place-bets so a
profit has been locked-in NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
While
we could always call our bets off, or bring them down, that defeats the entire
purpose of Precision-Shooting. Rather, we
want our money to be in action to best take advantage of our good throwing. By locking-in an early profit, we are also
reducing the self-imposed stress that some players place on themselves when they
continually have large bets on the layout. Using
a pay-for-itself regression method lets you relax and continue your good tossing without
having to concern yourself with undue risk or exposure. Relaxed
focus allows you to concentrate on continued success, not continued STRESS. That
also means that your initial bet has to be large enough to mostly cover the total amount
of the newly regressed Place-bets. For
example, if you Place-bet $66 Inside ($15 each on the 5 & 9, and $18 each on the 6
& 8), any outcome of those numbers will spin off a $21 payment. By immediately regressing your bets right after
that first hit, to $22 Inside ($5 each on the 5 & 9, and $6 each on the 6 & 8),
you are still in action on your most powerful numbers, yet you only have $1 net-dollar at
risk. Staying
In Action
By
having money on your Power Numbers, you are able to stay in action, while your bets have
been mostly paid for, all with just ONE paying roll.
In this case, we are less concerned with our actual Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio
(SRR), than we are in continuing to shoot consistently. From
that point on, subsequent revenue off of those Signature-Numbers can be racked (kept
entirely as profit), or a portion of it can be used to pump up the volume (press-up the
amount of the wager) on the numbers that are dominating during that particular
roll. Heres
a simple formula for you to remember: Signature
Numbers +
Regression +
Conservative
Pressing =
Consistent
Profit IF
and WHEN to Turn Bets Off
For
this part of the discussion, we are not talking about player superstitions; well get
to that idiosyncrasy very shortly. Right now
we are talking about following a betting-plan like John Patricks one-hit and down
or off recommendation. While
some of his methods ARE quite valid for random-rollers and other unqualified shooters,
they were NOT designed specifically with Precision-Shooting in mind. Some
Precision-Shooters turn all of their bets Off after a certain number of rolls
even on their own hands. If you usually 7-Out
on your ninth roll just like clockwork, then turning them off at the end of your eighth
roll is a terrific idea. However, if you are
using some arbitrary number that isnt related to your current skill-level to
determine when to turn them off, then you may be shortchanging yourself. When
your shooting is going well, permanently turning your bets Off, lets the world
(and your rightfully earned profit) continue to pass you by. Its YOUR profit, and your own shooting has
EARNED it; why would you want to ignore it and let the casino keep it? Automatically
turning your bets "Off" when you are on a good roll, is hardly ever a good idea. Instead, you can REDUCE or regress your bets,
along with a reduction of your PL-Odds. If
you know that your average roll lasts for 8 throws, then you can execute that
regression/reduction move around about the sixth or seventh roll. In that case, you will still have money in action
if your good shooting continues, but you have locked-in a profit as well. From
that point on, you can decide whether your continued good shooting merits increasing the
size of the bets you that are still spinning gold for you on every hit. Meanwhile, you can be satisfied that you have
recognized your normal shooting-benchmark, and you have adjusted your bets accordingly,
without eliminating the possibility of increased profit from an on-going hand. As your current hand surpasses the length of your
average roll, youll be able to enjoy the comfort of having a profit
locked up, yet still be satisfied that additional rolls may bring additional revenue. The
most important thing is that you dont let your own negative self-limiting thoughts
enter into your mind. In
craps, mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits. Dont
Let Superstition Limit Your Wins
Many
players let their superstitions become self-fulfilling prophecies. If you get it into your head that you always
7-Out at a certain time or another, you may in fact be affecting your precision-shot in a
negative way that does indeed result in a 7-Out result.
If
you say to yourself, Oh oh, here comes my ninth toss
I never make it past
the ninth roll
never
humph, here it goes
ahh ya see that
7-Out
just
like always! So
Ill say it again: In
craps, mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits. Trying
to Sit on a Two-legged Chair
You
can have Precision-Shooting skills coming out of every bodily orifice, and you can have
proper betting-methods down cold; but if your bankroll isnt sufficient to adequately
cover the volatility of your wagers, it is like trying to balance yourself in a two-legged
chair. You cant let your feet touch the
ground, and you cant prop it up against a wall
so you have to concentrate on
maintaining your balance. Now
as long as you dont have any other tasks to perform, you may be able to stay
balanced in that chair for a while, but as more and more complicated tasks are heaped upon
you, and as more and more distractions come your way; the more difficult it is to maintain
your equilibrium. Its
the same way with an inadequate bankroll. You
may be able to maintain its integrity for a while, but as more and more risk is thrown at
it, the less likely it is to survive. On the
off-chance that you are able to make it survive, it rarely thrives and
prospers because you are spending so much time trying to protect it. By
being overly protective, it never gets a chance to really grow and prosper. Sooner
or later an insufficient bankroll will lead to failure. Sufficient
Bankroll Gives Your Skills a Fair Chance
A
sufficient bankroll allows you to carry out the regression moves that we just discussed. It is CRITICAL to your success. Let me put into words that Arnold Schwarzenegger
might use: Hear me NOW, or believe me when your bankroll regains consciousness
having
a sufficient bankroll is CRITICAL to your success. You
can't do any of those regression moves if you don't have the bets out there in the first
place. If they aren't adequately large enough
to permit a proper step-down in the first place; then it makes it very difficult for your
bankroll to ever get enough self-fueled breathing room to really grow under its own power. Most
insufficient bankrolls crumble and deteriorate long before they ever have a chance to
grow. Many
players try to cut corners and reduce the amount of money that is necessary to comfortably
and successfully do what we are talking about. Sometimes
youll be able to dodge a bullet, but sooner or later, the volatility of the game
always catches up to an inadequate bankroll. EXPERIENCE
COMES EASILY, BUT NEVER CHEAPLY. Do not play
with an inadequate bankroll. Missing
a Critical Piece of the Precision-Shooting Puzzle
The
problem with having dice-setting skills with an insufficient bankroll, or having the best
betting-methods without the required discipline, means that you are missing critical
pieces to the consistent-profit puzzle. The
most frustrating part, is that you can get a good idea of how the finished picture should
look, and in fact, you may be able to figure out exactly what it should look like
However,
if one of the pieces is still missing, you WILL NEVER get to consistent profitability,
UNTIL you put it all together into a seamless, cohesive impermeable profit-masterpiece
that is yours to keep and use. As
Your Skill Evolves
Your
betting-methods have to evolve right along with them. What
worked perfectly for you three or six months ago may not even pertain to what you are
throwing now. For Signature Numbers, you have
to let your experience guide you, but not let ancient history determine
how you are betting now. As
your Precision-Shooting evolves, you have to constantly monitor whether your current
betting-methods are squeezing maximum profit out of your present skills, or
if they are strangling and diluting your revenue and diminishing your
earnings-consistency. Getting
TO Consistency and STAYING There
Your
CURRENT Signature Numbers should be the driving force behind your bets, and that includes
giving them PRIORITY over all other bets INCLUDING your PL-Odds money. If your PL-Point is not one of your Signature
Numbers, and you have to make a choice between fuller-odds or a Place-bet on your PRIMARY
Signature Number, then the choice is ALWAYS to have your strongest number(s) covered. No,
you are not going to see that advice in any craps book YET, but I'm sure you'll see the
advice co-opted by a gaming author sooner or later. INVEST
YOUR MONEY WHERE IT WILL HAVE THE MOST CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE RESULTS. So
Ill tell you again: Your
CURRENT Signature Numbers should be the DRIVING FORCE behind your bets, and that includes
giving them PRIORITY over all other bets INCLUDING your PL-Odds money. If
Your Shooting Starts Giving
You
have to adjust your bets to do the best TAKING. When changes occur, you first have to recognize
them; then you have to adjust your betting-methods to more closely match your
currently-flowing results. As
your skill improves, your betting-methods have to keep pace with them. If
you see one or two numbers continually repeating one after the other after the other; then
that is where your troops (your money) should be deployed.
In some sessions, a new dominant outcome may signal the emergence of a newer
or higher-priority Signature Number. If
the third outcome with the same result doesn't convince you to bet on it, then the fourth
one definitely should. Five or six
back-to-back-to-back same-number outcomes are what fledgling Precision-Shooters fantasize
about (and what accomplished Precision-Shooters strive for during each hand). You simply have to learn when to pull the trigger,
and to have a sufficient bankroll so that you have not run out of bullets when a prime
target-of-opportunity shows its head. You
have to continually monitor your progress to determine if the ranking and strength of each
Signature Number is stable, or whether one of them is racing for and taking over the lead
in its dominance. This is the time to make
adjustments to your bets. If
these on-going adjustments look like a continual juggling act where you modify, revise,
amend and fine-tune where your money is deployed, you are correct. You have to have the insight and awareness of your
constantly changing skills to reflect the places where the preponderant weight of your
money should be positioned. If
your shooting starts Giving; then you have to adjust your bets to do the
TAKING.
A
Short Review
By
focusing on our Signature Numbers, we reduce our risk and increase our profit. In addition:
Ø
Early
regression of our bets reduces bankroll depression.
Ø
Relaxed
focus allows you to concentrate on continued success, not continued STRESS.
Ø
Signature
Numbers + Regression + Conservative Pressing = Consistent Profit
Ø
Dont
let superstition limit your wins.
Ø
Mental-limits
are far more restrictive than physical-limits.
Ø
Sufficient
bankroll gives your skills a fair chance.
Ø
As
your skill evolves, your betting-methods have to evolve along with them.
Ø
Your
current Signature Numbers have to be the driving force behind your bets.
Ø
Invest
your money where it will have the most consistently profitable results.
Ø
If
your shooting starts Giving; then you have to adjust your bets to do the
TAKING. Until
we discuss this further in Part IV, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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