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Streaks, Trends and Opportunity
Part V

 

The Task and the Goal

We are looking for ways to:

       Find the strongest, and most convincing trends.

       Locate the longest, and most profitable streaks.

       Do all of that in the shortest possible time,

       With the utmost reliability, and the lowest risk to our bankroll. 

That may sound like quite the task, but other than Precision-Shooting, seeking and exploiting streaks and trends is the best, most reliable profit opportunity that wise and insightful craps players can make.

So it is, that we take on the mission with the doubtless knowledge that we will accomplish it.  The goal of profitable consistency is worth both the time and the effort.

How Well Can You Read?

It is the ability to “read” many tables at the same time which will increase your chances of getting in on something good BEFORE everyone else clues into it. 

Most of the tips that we’ve covered so far in this series have addressed this issue.  In poker, you have to “read” your opponents to maximize your betting opportunities.  In craps, you have to read the tables AND assess the shooters to determine which ones hold the best wagering possibilities and the most likely profit opportunities.

By reading the early warning signs, you’ll be able to position yourself at the most opportune table BEFORE all of the latecomers are shut out of the betting action because the table is too full.

Stating the Obvious

Here’s a simple rule of thumb:

       The more you stick with OBVIOUS trends and streaks, the better off and safer your bankroll will be. 

       The further out on the betting-limb that you push the “is it REAL” question, the higher the risk that you are exposing your money to.

The thing about mastering streaks and trends is that the best and longest ones are obvious, while the ones we “hope” are a streak or a trend often turns out to be just another short-lived variation within the scope of random results.  The “skill” part of the equation, is for you to determine the real ones from the short-lived ones.

Not ONE Method, Just One ATTITUDE

While there is not one single, foolproof method that will work all of the time, if you use common-sense, and a combination of the tips that we have discussed in this series, then you’ll be able to find more streaks, more often.

It takes an evenly-balanced and open-minded attitude to enable the information that is all around you, to flow unrestricted in your direction.  Once you receive the information, you have to process it in an unbiased and dispassionate way. 

You can’t let your stubbornness, fear, greed, preferences, or other inclinations, color your decisions.  Those factors obscure what is really happening, with what you wish, hope and pray are happening.  That kind of mental interference will kill your bankroll, just as sure as ill-founded superstitions will keep you from taking proper advantage of certain streaks when they do come along.   It’s all based on your attitude, and the way that you permit yourself to look at things. 

Once you open your mind, and remove the obstacles-to-profit, you tune into exactly what the tables are telling you.  After a while, you can anticipate quite accurately, exactly where the dice are in their natural cycle, and where they will probably be going next. 

While you can’t accurately predict each ROLL, you can improve your intuition about knowing where the current trend is likely headed in the very near future.  That two-to-five-roll “horizon-awareness” develops over time, and becomes sharper and keener as you gain greater awareness and insight into the cyclical nature of the game as it unfolds.   Thereafter, finding exploitable trends almost becomes second-nature.

Once you open your mind to accepting the incoming flow of all relevant information, and you refuse to let your stubbornness, fear, greed, or preferences prejudice, bias, sway or unduly influence your betting decisions; then you’ll be positioned to take advantage of the streaks and trends when they come along…and believe me, the streaks and trends ALWAYS come along, and now you’ll be able to profit from more of them.

Making It Easier to Win

The one element that makes the whole process, SO MUCH easier, is if you have no qualms, hesitations or mental hang-ups about betting on “either side” of the dice.  Some people are only comfortable betting “with” the dice on the Pass-side of the equation.  You might be able to twist their arm once in awhile to bet on the “wrong” side, but overall, they are reluctant passengers on that particular flight.

Conversely, there are dyed-in-the-wool Darksiders who consider the “rightside” to be for fools, suckers or people from Buffalo.  They have been on one side of the Don’t Pass border for so long, that they figure betting on the PL-side of the dice is the ultimate form of risk-taking, and they figure that that style is definitely not for them. 

While they might unenthusiastically make a token wager on the Pass Line if their boss or their Mom is throwing the dice; as soon as that torturous journey “into the light” is finished, they return to the comfort-zone from whence they came.  Once they return to the quiet sanctity and peaceful calm of the Darkside, they no longer fear the “7” (except on the Come-Out) and they can once again contentedly loathe their bright-eyed, optimistic table-mates.

Neither one of those “one way” players will reach their full potential as a Trend-Spotter because their vision is clouded, jaundiced and definitely limited by their own mind-set and limited scope of play.

What it takes to truly succeed and consistently profit as a Trend-Spotter, is a VERY open mind, and NO compunction to bet on one particular side of the dice over the other.

The Trend Dictates the Bet, Not the Other Way Around

What happens to players who heavily prefer to wager on one particular side of the dice, is that their hopeful optimism blinds them to what they HOPE is starting to happen as opposed to what is REALLY happening. 

By tearing down the “preference barrier”, you are better able to see, hear and sense what is actually occurring instead of hopping onto what your anxious hopefulness prays is the start of something good. 

If you eliminate the hopeful yearnings, you are left with the cold, sober reality of what is really happening.  In that case, the table-trend will dictate the bet. 

Your own personal preferences mean NOTHING unless you only look for and exploit trends in your favorite comfort-range.  Unfortunately, doing it that way will cut your opportunities at least in half, and more than double the time and effort required to find them. 

Simple math will tell you that you will be in the right place at the right time, less than 25% of the time, instead of being properly positioned almost 100% of the time, so that you can take advantage of any streak, of any color, at any time.

There is a huge difference between HOPE and REALITY and to be consistently successful, you have to put the “hope” part aside, and focus on what the table is REALLY telling you.

With that in mind, let’s look at a few more ways to determine what nearby tables are telling us:

When it Goes From Flame-Hot  to Ice-Cold

In Part IV of this series we looked at the phenomenon that occurs when there has been a long cold streak and the dice finally transition into a hot one, but many players fail to take advantage of it. 

Now I’d like to take a look at the complete opposite.   When one Flame-Hot hand ends, have you noticed that the heat-wave very rarely continues?

This is true, but why?

Could it be that the dice are inexorably drawn to “evening themselves out” as far as expected frequency is concerned? 

Could it be that hot-streaks rarely occur, and having two in a row is even more rare?  Do the dice seek to regain their natural ”center point” or middle ground in the land of choppiness?

Whatever the correct explanation is, the inescapable truth is that hot streaks are usually ended by the start of a new streak in the opposite direction or at least into the quagmire of choppiness.  That is the nature of craps and the reality of streaks and trends.  From this point of view, it is very easy to understand just why Trend-Spotters like to cruise from trend to trend and streak to streak, while avoiding that grind-you-into-casino-dust choppiness.

By refusing to get slashed and hacked by choppy conditions, the Trend-Spotter is able to surf from trend to trend and streak to streak while enduring very little choppy-table damage.

Up Next…

We still have a lot of territory to cover in our journey of discovering more profitable ways to utilize streaks and trends.  Up next, we’ll look at:

       The Body-Language of Craps

       Finding the Warmest-Trending Casinos and the HOTTEST hands.

       The natural life-expectancy of a trend.

       Exactly HOW Trend-Spotters take advantage of the streaks and trends when they come along. 

       A layman’s look at Probability Flux and Consecutive Occurrences.

       And a special hidden gem that will blow your mind.

Until then,

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

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