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Regression Avoids Depression Part 17



Today we are heading into an advantage-play area that will allow you to extract not only more

profit from the same level of play, but also help you understand how the slimmest of margins

over the house can offer all kinds of profit as long as your other non-advantage bets are minimized.


 Developing Your Edge and Then Exploiting Your Advantage


As an advantage-player, your edge-per-hand determines how much profit you can expect to extract,

on average, from each dice-shooting opportunity. 


We establish that advantage by first determining the average number of times you will roll the

dice (on average) during a typical hand.  We call that the “point-cycle roll-duration”, and we use that

while factoring in the global-bets that you typically make.  In doing so, we can calculate your

approximate dice-influencing edge over each of these respective multi-number wagers.


Your “edge-per-hand” also dictates what your starting session-bankroll really should be in

order for a given betting-method to have the best chance of successfully exploiting your

current advantage over the casino.  We’ll be exploring that subject in intense detail

(with easy to follow charts) in Part Eighteen of this series, but for now I’ll tell you this:


It is critical to note that…


Ø      If your bankroll is under-funded or your money is too thinly spread over too

      many low-advantage or negative-expectation bets, your chances for

      success are radically diminished even if you have a dominant edge over the house.


Ø      Equally, your edge-per-hand also controls how many properly-sized geared-to-

      skill hands you will have to throw, on average, before doubling your current



Again, your dice-influencing skill on its own is not enough to guarantee a profit. 


You have to wager your properly-sized bets on the numbers where you have developed the

strongest validated edge…and I hate to tell you this, but any other non-advantaged bets are

just a waste of your money because they not only cut into your profit-margin, but they also erode

the very bankroll that you’ll need in order to properly exploit your edge on the bets where you do

have the advantage.


Ø      Your advantage over the house and your average roll-duration dictates not only the best bets

       to make, but also the proper size of each of them and the overall size of bankroll you’ll need

       in order to properly utilize that edge.


Okay, that’s enough of a preview of this and the next couple of chapters in this series; let’s jump

right in.


Bridging the Skill-to-Profit Gap


As we’ve seen thus far in the first sixteen chapters, your advantage over the house is not static on a

roll-to-roll-to-roll basis during any given hand.  Rather, the over-riding threat of a 7-Out is an ever-present

danger that has to be recognized for what it is…it is part of the game.  As a result, we generally only

get a certain number of rolls per hand to weave our precision-shooting magic.  That point-cycle period

is dictated by our Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (“SSR”), and although I’ll readily admit that our SRR isn’t the

be-all and end-all of dice-influencing; it does figure very prominently into reconciling what it is we can

actually do with our precision-shooting skill once we have developed a slight edge over the house.


We also know that our Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SSR) dictates the average number of point-cycle rolls that

we will throw before 7’ing-Out; so obviously if we ignore that; then we are likely ignoring all kinds of

profit-making opportunities too…and doing that will likely leave you feeling short-changed when you

compare the amount of profit you actually end up with versus the amount of skill you know you have. 


The whole idea behind this series is to help you bridge the gap between your skill and your rightful

profit.  We do that by properly structuring our bets in a size and proportion to our current skill-level.  As

such, it would be silly if we didn’t figure the 7’s appearance-rate into our advantage-play bet-

calculations or if we ignored how long our wagers generally stay in positive-expectation

territory before combined probabilities casts them back into negative-expectancy.


Let me put that into bumper-sticker speak:


Get your work done in time…make a profit. 


Too slow on your advantage…produce a loss. 



 Casino Battle or Business Encounter?


What most players perceive as a casino battle, is in fact just a down-to-earth business encounter where

we are simply using our dice-influencing skills to derive a net-profit from the wagers that we place on the



As I mentioned, the life-expectancy of each hand is obviously quite limited, and therefore our betting

-method has to recognize the limited time during each hand in which a consistently predictable profit can

be derived.  To ignore that fact by leaving our originally sized wagers out there for too long actually devalues and erodes the net-profit that we’ve won up until that point in any given hand.  Additionally,

it also minimizes the overall profit we are likely to emerge with from any given hand that we throw.


In other words, the bets that remain on the layout when our hand ends obviously have to be deducted from

any bet-payouts we received during that hand in order to determine net-profitability for that particular turn

with the dice.



The Deadly Sins of Advantage Play


Many players either start out with wagers that are way too small, hoping that they’ll turn their matchstick

into a lumberyard by way of a once in a lifetime roll; or they leave way too much money out on the

layout for far too long without first locking-up a relatively substantial retained profit (in relation

to the overall size of their total exposed wagers).


As precision-shooters, we have to use the average point-cycle roll-duration juncture to determine where

the optimal regression-point for our particular bets actually is, and then ideally we would lock in a net-profit

at that point.  If our roll continues beyond there; then we simply continue to harvest a profit from our

remaining wagers and we can even start to increase them if we choose to.


Now clearly, many of our hands will go far beyond that average roll-duration point, and since we still have

active, albeit lower-valued bets on the layout; we are still be able to reap the benefit and even ramp them

up if the hand continues. 


Most importantly though, regression-betting allows us get to the net-profit point in more of our

hands more often than any other style, form, or method of wagering. 


The added benefit of reaching net-profit at an earlier point in nearly every hand; is that many regression-

style bettors find that they are better able to relax about the money-anxiety they used to feel, and instead

they are now more fully able to focus on the task of actually de-randomizing the dice even further.  Since

the net-profit comes to them sooner and on a much more consistent basis than before; the anxiety that

they used to feel, has been replaced with a higher level of shooting confidence and income reliability. 



So Is It A Casino Battle or a Simple Advantage-Play Business Encounter?


Instead of fearing or loathing the 7; many dice-influencers have wisely adapted their betting-

methods to recognize and match its overall appearance-rate in order to take full advantage of the

fattest, most frequently occurring part of their roll-duration curve…all the while profitably emerging

from the whole process with a highly predictable revenue stream.


We have to keep in mind that while our precision-shooting skill itself may remain constant throughout a

hand, the math of dice-influencing dictates that that skill can only be considered in context with the

ever-looming presence of a roll-ending 7-Out. 


Savvy precision-shooters understand that you simply don’t need to throw mythical unending hands of 50

or 100 or 300 rolls in order to prove your manhood or emerge with a net-profit; rather, they understand the importance of structuring their bets in such a way so that their average non-headline-making hand

produces a steady and reliable profit too.  Now THAT is what any mature adult would consider to be

an accomplishment. 


Your long hands will take care of themselves and you should make as much money off of those as you

possibly can, but the bread-and-butter of dice-influencing revenue is generated by using your

EVERY DAY, EVERY SESSION hands to make a profit nearly every time you pick up the dice. 


In the simplest terms, properly structured regression-bets that are optimized for your current skill-level,

means that you can derive consistent profit from your low-average short-duration hands and not just

from the exceptional long ones.  To my way of thinking, that isn’t so much “a battle” as it is a common

sense business exchange.  You are simply investing a small portion of your gaming bankroll at the

craps table in order to get a profitable return on your dice-influencing skills.


To an advantage-player who uses regression-style betting, the casino battle that most gamblers think

they are fighting; is instead just a straight-forward positive-expectation business encounter.  An A-P

dice-influencer regards the wagers that he makes on his own validated bets simply as investments

in his own verified and confirmed dice-influencing skills. 


Like I said, if you ignore your point-cycle roll-duration; then there’s an excellent chance that

significant profits are also going to continue to ignore you. 


Ø      If the dice-influencer gets his work done in time, by having his strongest-edge bets produce

      net-revenue before the 7 shows up; then he makes a profit. 


Ø      If he is too slow to capitalize on his advantage because his bets are too widely spread or

      too thinly wagered; then he produces a loss.


Or as that A-P D-I bumper-sticker should read:


Get your work done in time…make a profit. 


Too slow on your advantage…produce a loss. 


 Simplifying Your Bet-Investment Decisions


If we have to regard our bet-decisions as “investments”, and we restrict our wagers to the

 ones where we have the strongest-edge; then how do multi-number global bets like

Inside, Across, Even, Outside and Iron Cross wagers fit into that equation?


To figure that out, we first have to consider what each hit on one of these global-type bets will

typically pay, and how many flat-bet hits it will require to pay for itself (before reaching profitability);

 then we have to figure out how many hits our current dice-influencing skill is likely to generate

during an average hand.


Armed with proper information, we can then make an informed decision regarding various betting-

methods we might be considering.  So let’s look at these global-bets to see exactly what each of

them requires in terms of making them net-profitable under various SRR skill-rates.



Flat-bet Hits Required to Break-Even












Iron Cross


Average Wagering Unit

(Value of total bets divided by number of wagers)













(Average Payout/hit)









Hits Required

to reach break-even point for this bet

3.14 4.27 2.54  






Expected Hits/Hand


Hits/Hand above Break-even











































Expected Hit-Rate


Hits/Hand above Break-even




































Expected Hit-Rate


Hits/Hand above Break-even







































Expected Hit-Rate


Hits/Hand above Break-even





































Expected Hit-Rate


Hits/Hand above Break-even





































Expected Hit-Rate


Hits/Hand above Break-even













































Expected Hits/Hand


Hits/Hand above Break-even












































Now keep in mind that this chart shows FLAT-betting (where you neither regress nor increase

your bet at any time during a hand).  It shows how many same-bet hits are required for each of

these global-bets to pay for themselves, and it shows how much profit-per-hand a player is likely

to end up with at the end of each hand. 


Now obviously these are averages and you’ll likely encounter quite a bit of fluctuation from

hand to hand, session to session and casino visit to casino visit; but overall, this chart shows

the amount of net-profit you are likely to derive from each of these global bets, when averaged

over a reasonable number of in-casino trials.



What Else Does That Chart Tell Us?


The next thing that the chart tells us, is that even when you have multiple numbers covered at the

same time, and even though you are shooting with an advantage over the house; you only have a

slight advantage when you are flat-betting (or calling for the “same bet” when you get paid); and

you only have a limited amount of time (as measured by point-cycle rolls) in which to extract a net

profit from most of the hands that you throw. 


The figures on the chart include everything from the super short point-then-7-out hands to the

seemingly unending ones that go on and on.  However, when you look at your profit-making

opportunities when measured over the expected roll-duration and the expected hit-rate for each

of these respective global-bets for your particular skill; it is easy to make a very compelling

argument for the use of regression-type bets in order to safely get the maximum amount of net-

profit off the table as soon as possible.


Now some people will tell you that regression-betting merely redistributes your wins to the early

part of your point-cycle roll and minimizes it in the unlikely event that your hand goes on and on and

on; and that would be true if your average point-cycle roll-duration lasted much, much longer than it

actually does.  Sadly though, your point-cycle usually only lasts for a very short period of time, so it

makes sense to make money from it as soon and as often as you can. 


Ø      Regression-betting is designed for “average” conditions where your global-bets enjoy their

      normally expected appearance-rate.


Ø       If you bet like every hand will be THE hand of the century, then your bankroll will likely be

       exhausted long before your baseless optimism is.


Regression-betting is designed to put more profit into your hands more often and more

efficiently and on a much steadier basis than same-bet flat-wagering ever will. 


In other words, a properly structured regression-bet takes much of the guess-work out of wondering

if this hand will be THE hand.  Instead, by using your current skill-level to extract net-profit out of

most of your hands, you don’t have to worry or hope or wish; you simply have to shoot the same

way you normally do…and the profit is yours for the taking.



The Untold Story of Compound Multi-Number Bets


Since we now know exactly what it takes to turn multi-number global-bets into net-positive winners;

we can use that information to precisely figure out the true-edge we have over the casino when we

optimally regress our bets at the right time during the point-cycle; and therefore we can calculate

not only how much of a bankroll we should be armed with in order to properly exploit our advantage,

but also how many hands it will likely take to double our current bankroll.


That’s the untold story of compound multi-number global-bets, and you are going to be hearing all

about it for the first time in Part Eighteen of this series.  I can promise you this…


It is one of my most important articles that you will ever read. 


I hope you’ll join me for that.  In the meantime,


Good Luck and Good Skills at the tables…and in Life.




The Mad Professor


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