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D'ya Wanna Win, or
D'ya Wanna Gamble? I
was shooting dice at the Stardust Hotel-Casino a short while ago, and there were just
three other players at the same table. A
tourist walked up, and asked no one in particular, How do you play this
game? A
Pit Boss was standing nearby. He walked a bit
closer and said, Dya wanna win, or dya wanna gamble? The new guys eyes and mouth opened wide, as he was
caught off-guard by the question. Despite his
mouth being open, no words came out. After
a second or two of silence, the Pit Boss pointed in my direction, and said, If
you wanna win, bet the WAY he does, WHEN he does. If
you just wanna just gamble, (as he nodded his head in a sweeping motion to the
other players) just do what everyone else here is doing. It
felt a little awkward when all of the other players looked directly at me, then down at my
semi-filled chip rail, then back up at me. I
turned to the new guy, and said, Hes
just kidding. After I finish shooting,
Ill be happy to answer any and all questions you might have. In the meantime, Stevie here (the dealer
closest to our table-position) will explain how the game actually works, then Ill
fill in the rest of the story once my hand is completed. The
Pit Boss retorted, I wasnt kidding
just look at his rack and
compare it to everyone elses. His
buy-in was the same as everyone elses. Hes
got close to $700 in profit, and everyone else is down to playing with milk-money. That should tell you somethin. Dont let his modesty fool you
hes
one of the very few sons-of-bitches that consistently wins in here, and Ive been
watching this damn game for 25 years, this August.
So you gotta decide, dya wanna win, or dya wanna gamble? By
that point, the prospective player probably felt more than a little intimidated, and said,
Uh, thanks, I think Ill stick with slot machines, and he walked
away. Less
New Players = Less New Opportunities I
subsequently told the Pit Boss that his kind of response was partially responsible for the
slow demise of the craps-playing population. By
making the game seem tough-to-learn, and tougher-to-win, it discourages
new players from joining in. The
number of craps tables throughout North America shrinks more and more each year. Despite the plethora of new casinos on this
continent, there are now 55% LESS craps tables than there were just ten years ago. Think about that.
There has been a 400% increase in the number of casinos, but the
number of craps tables has SHRUNK by more than half. Most
leathery old-timers hate it when a new player comes to the table with a fistful of dollars
and 101 questions. However, discouraging
their play ensures that craps moves several steps closer towards going the way of Dodo
birds, Buddy Holly, dinosaurs and virginity. Dont
kid yourself about the profitability of craps tables, they are WAY, WAY down on the list
of profit-generators for the casino. When was
the last time that you saw a casino take slot-machines OUT, and put more craps tables IN? That has only happened ONCE in the last decade. Ill
have more to say on this particular subject at a later date, but for now, I want to take a
look at the whole, Dya
Wanna Win, or Dya Wanna Gamble? Concept My
agenda is clear. I
want to gently nudge you in the direction of ACTUALLY WINNING, and away from MERELY
GAMBLING. I
make no secret about my intentions, simply because I know that you can get a lot more fun
out of WINNING, than you can while being entertained by LOSING. Gambling
for fun and entertainment is fine, or if you use gambling as an expensive
escape. However, recreational
gamblers realize sooner or later that winning is generally a whole lot more fun than just
playing and losing. After
a while, a serious recreational player has to answer the seminal question as to whether
they seriously WANT TO WIN, or whether they are satisfied by SIMPLY GAMBLING. There
is a big difference between the two routes, and this series of articles will map out a
path to a profit-destination where the efforts are well worth the trip. The
Concept of Gambling
Some
people like to gamble as a form of entertainment. When it is done with restraint and within the
tightly controlled confines of your discretionary income, gambling can be entertaining,
pleasurable, and act as an escape outlet for an everyday mundane existence. In
some cases, gambling represents the thrill and challenge for survival that we
used to face when we hunted wooly mammoths and fended off ravenous packs of jackals from
the entrance to the family cave. Since we no
longer have to do that unless we live in Flint, Michigan, many people find that casino
gambling satisfyingly replaces that higher need for thrill, struggle and
challenge. The
Concept of Winning
The
idea behind winning is a simple one. The
best concept is to profit more on the winning bets than we spend on the losing ones. While
there is still a substantial element of risk and peril associated with winning money in a
casino, it is more than just venturing money for the thrill and challenge of having a
wager out on the table on the hope that it will win.
As
our friend Heavy is fond of saying, Hope is not a strategy. That may sound like an oversimplification, but it
is nonetheless true. In this series,
Im going to show you, step-by-step, HOW to LOSE LESS, and WIN MORE, all-the-while
using LESS MONEY to achieve HIGHER PROFIT. Gambling
is still part of a winning approach, however, we simply lower the
risk, and replace it with a higher likelihood of
success. The
difference between the two is really quantified in how much money you can CONSISTENTLY
EARN from the game, and NOT how much THRILL you get from it. Fear
& Greed
The
two main motivators when it comes to making gambling decisions are fear and greed. That is why I talk about both of those factors
quite a bit in my articles. The
fear of LOSING money is balanced against the greed of wanting to MAKE money. Its
as simple as that. We make constant
adjustments to that equation during every moment that we are at the tables, just as we
make similar decisions in day-to-day life. A
Simple Example of a Complicated Decision
Lets
look at a simple bet such as an $18 Place-bet on the 6 and 8 that we regress down to $6
each after any paying-hit. That means that we
have a $9 net-profit no matter what happens next (A win on an $18 6 or 8 pays $21. We immediately regress both of those bets down to
$6 each which leaves a total of $12 out on the table, and a $9 profit in our rack). The bet is totally paid for, and we have a profit
left over, NO MATTER WHAT ELSE HAPPENS during this hand. When
we place a bet and collect some profit, we have to make the decision whether or not we
will leave it out there exposed to further risk, or whether we will take it all down, thus
guaranteeing a locked-in profit. That
decision is balanced-off against the hope that if left out there, it MAY continue to spin
gold for us.
Ø
We
made one decision in deciding to make the bet in the first place.
Ø
We
made another decision about regressing the bet in the second place.
Ø
Now
we have to decide whether we will leave the bet out there for one or more additional hits,
and whether we will press-up the bet or expand the bets to any other numbers on subsequent
hits.
Ø
We
can also decide to call the bet Off or call the bet Down at any
time. As
you can see, the decision process is constantly flowing.
We make our decisions based on our own experiences. These experiences are rooted in:
Ø
Past
occurrences
Ø
Recent
influences
Ø
Future
expectations As
the information flows, we continually try to make a decision that seems to be in our best
interest. Our decisions are almost always
balanced against:
Ø
What
we THINK we know.
Ø
What
we ACTUALLY know.
Ø
What
we expect our knowledge to accurately tell us, versus what we hope the game
will give us. You
can easily see where both the fear of losing, and the greed for winning will
play on a persons mind. Risk
Tolerance
Each
player has a different tolerance for risk, to such an extent that one players fear of
losing is more than offset by another players greed for profit. In that equation, you also want to factor in your
own need for action or thrill of pursuit into the equation. For
some people, the thrill of the chase is much more important than the conquest
of actual profit. This all
figures into the Dya wanna win, or dya wanna gamble question. Smashing
Conventional Thinking
If
youve read my
Blasphemy
courtesy of The Mad Professor
or
my Dodging Bullets As A Darksider articles,
you know how I dont mind crushing conventional, but tainted gambling wisdom. Most
gamblers LOSE. I want to help you WIN. To
do that, you have to change some of the ingrained, inbred thinking that keeps 98% of
casino-gamblers on the losing side. The
changes dont come easy, and they wont come painlessly, but the alternative of
continued losing should be motivation enough for you to come with me into the light of
consistent PROFIT. Greed
Makes You Stupid
It
has been said that greed makes you stupid because it blinds you to common-sense that would
otherwise guide you in a completely opposite direction.
Greed also forces you to take chances that you wouldnt otherwise make,
and in fact, those same chances are the ones that you would counsel friends and family NOT
to take, yet, greed gives you a sense of power, entitlement and hopeful luck. Greed obscures and camouflages the horrific
dangers of misguided betting methods. Greed
+ Sheer Luck = Greater Risk
While
greed may indeed make you stupid, an occasional win on risky bets or the hope of one-more-hit
is a prime motivator when it comes to leaving bets out there for too long, or for
motivating a player to make continually failing high-risk, low-frequency bets. In
simple-speak, hoping for the mythical unending hand is just that
a MYTH, while blind
greed on the Prop bets can consume your money faster than a Rottweiller can eat a
miniature Schnauser. I
AM NOT saying that you shouldnt have money out there on a hot roll. In fact, I advise just the opposite. Its just that you cannot hope and bet like
EVERY random-rollers hand is going to be long and hot. I
AM NOT saying that you shouldnt make Prop-bets, it is just that a few occasional
wins on these type of bets may divert your attention away from more steady and lower-risk
wins. Some people are easily swayed when they
see a fellow player make an occasional high-visibility parlayed-repeater win on a
center-of-the-table bet. However, it is
important to remember WHY a big Prop-bet win on a random-roller rarely happens, and WHY it
is of such high-visibility when it does happen. When
you put money out there and a random-roller throws a winner for a high-value payoff, it is
easy to be drawn deeper into the dark-world of high-risk Props, sometimes to the exclusion
of more conventional, yet less-risky wagers. In
fact, some people get so caught up and addicted to the lure of the Props that they forsake
a more traditional approach to the game altogether. After
a while, they feel the NEED to make more and more Prop bets just to dig themselves out of
the bankroll-hole that they have dug for themselves. If
Prop Bets Are a Money-Maker For You
If
you BELIEVE that Prop bets are the road to salvation and consistent profit for you, then
test your theory, and start keeping track of ALL of your Prop and Hop action, along with
the wins that those bets generate for you.
Ø
Dont
do it for just one session.
Ø
Do
it for ALL of your sessions.
Ø
Dont
do it only on the prop bets that you make on yourself.
Ø
Do
it for every Hop and Prop bet that you wager. If
at the end of a couple of dozen sessions, you are still ahead, then hey, you are obviously
on the right track. However, in most cases,
you will see that the Props and Hops are diminishing your profits and NOT adding to them. Even when you have a winning session, you may find
that those high-risk bets reduce your profit-margins by anywhere from 10% to 80%. The
worst part, is that you may find that most of your losing sessions could have been
break-even or even profitable, IF you had eliminated all of the random-roller Prop-bets. The same may even hold true for your own
Precision-Shooting efforts. Dont assume
that your own Prop-bet shooting is profitable; PROVE IT to yourself. Keep
track of all of your prop bets, and compare the profit/loss figure after a dozen or so
sessions. Your bankroll may thank you. Why
Dont Precision-Shooters Make More Money?
If
you ever thought to yourself, WHY DONT MORE PRECISION-SHOOTERS MAKE MORE
MONEY?, the answer usually lays in the way that they bet, and NOT
the way that they throw the dice. If
you dont believe that a moderately-skilled player cant CONSISTENTLY profit
from even low SRRs, then you havent read or fully digested my article
entitled, Can Frequency Compensate For Shortness? . I
have seen some truly awe-inspiring Precision-Shooters who RARELY walk away with a profit. Their dice-throwing is amongst the best,
yet their betting is amongst the worst. The
intoxicating draw of the Prop bets, and their superstitious betting habits work against
them in the worst of ways. There are many,
many semi-professional players whose $5,000 to $15,000 annual craps-shooting income would
be three to ten times HIGHER if they would only eliminate the high-cost Hop and Prop-bets
from their betting diet. The
cumulative erosion that all of those seemingly tiny $1 bets has on your bankroll is barely
perceptible on a moment-to-moment basis. However,
by the end of each session, the cumulative effect is almost always substantial. I
guess you could equate that with the question, How
do you eat an entire elephant (bankroll)? The
answer is simply, One
bite (one dollar) at a time. So
Ill tell you again. The
reason most skilled Precision-Shooters dont make more money, is because of the way
that they BET, and NOT the way that they SHOOT! Before
we head on to
Part Two where well continue our journey towards ACTUALLY WINNING, and
away from MERELY GAMBLING, let me reiterate what the Pit Boss at the Stardust had to say,
If you wanna win, bet the WAY he does, WHEN he does. If you just wanna just gamble, then
just do what everyone else is doing. Good
Luck and Good Skill at the tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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