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Can FREQUENCY Compensate for SHORTNESS
(of Rolls)

Someone took me to task over something that I wrote a little while back.

I had stated that having an average SRR of 6:1 (equal to a random-roller) was not necessarily a bad thing, and that in fact, a novice Precision-Shooter with strong Signature Numbers under his control, could still have profitable hands even if his SRR was as low as 3:1.

Of course, someone didn’t believe the Mad Professor…AGAIN!

So, can FREQUENCY of paying-hits compensate for short rolls?

Yes, it can.

Let me explain how you can have consistent profitability even if your shooting results are at or below par.

If you track your Signature Numbers and you have determined that you almost always get at least ONE Inside hit (5, 6, 8, or 9) before you 7-Out; then there is profit that is hiding in your low SRR.

I’ll give you one example.  It’s a simplified approach, but hopefully it illustrates that there are ways to squeeze profitability out of seemingly ordinary rolling.  Of course, there are several methods and betting approaches that I could recommend, but for this case in point, I’ll use a simple example:

 

       I’ll pre-suppose that you have a $1000 session-bankroll, and you are able to play at a short-to-medium length, lightly-populated craps table.

       Let’s say that your casino offers $5 tables with 2x Odds.

       During your turn at the dice, for the Come-Out roll, you bet $5 on the Pass Line ONLY.  Instead of using a separate dice-set for the Come-Out roll, I want you to use your normal set that you usually employ once the Point has been established.

       If your PL Point is any of your Inside Signature Numbers; then you back up your bet with $10 in 2x Odds.

       At the same time, you Place bet the remaining Inside Numbers for $25 each on the 5 and 9, and $30 each on the 6 and 8.  That means you will have either $80 or $85 bet on the Place numbers, depending on your Inside Number PL Point.

       Now, if you hit any of the three Inside Place Numbers that you have action on, you are paid $35.

       You immediately regress all of your Place bets to $5 and $6 each.  Concurrent with that, you reduce your Pass-Line Odds down to 1x (single) Odds.

Here’s your profit picture from that little move:

       You now have a total of $28 on the table.  In fact, you may only have $26 on the layout, depending on what your PL Point is.  For example, if 5 is the Point, you will have $6 each on the 6 & 8, and $5 on the 9.  You will have $5 on the PL, and $6 in (even-number) Odds for a correct pay-off on the Point of 5.

       That means that no matter what else happens from here on out, all of your bets have been paid for, AND you have a $7 profit locked-up for this hand.

       It also means that your top four Signature Numbers (5, 6, 8, & 9) are still in action, and they may continue to contribute even more profit.

       Regardless of what else happens, you have rolled the dice exactly two times, and you have a guaranteed profit in your rack.   That’s a fine situation to be in.

       At the same time, you still have bets on the four most powerful numbers that your Signature-Number at-home practices have determined are your most dominant payers.  That too is a very good situation to be in.

However, that isn’t the end of your low-SRR situation.  Here’s why:

       If you continue to roll more and more paying hits on your dominant Inside-Numbers after the initial regression; then you can use a portion of your subsequent pay-offs to add more Odds to your PL Point, or you can slowly ratchet up your Inside-Number bets.

       Even if you establish the 4 or 10 as your Pass Line Point, your initial $35 Inside-hit payoff will still cover a regressed $22-Inside and $10 total for the Pass Line with single (1x) Odds.  In the big picture, that still gives you a guaranteed profit of $3, and you still have action on five numbers.  That means you still have 21 ways to win (77.7%), versus 6 ways to lose (22.3%). Not bad odds where I come from.

Now, let me ask you this.  How many times have you rolled a fairly lengthy hand, and STILL lost money on it?   With this “short-SRR” method, you almost always have a quick profit racked-up BEFORE your short-SRR does any damage to your bankroll.

The big guy is soooo right when he says, “Any win beats any loss, any day.”  A $3 or $7 profit may not seem like much money, but guys, here is the point…IT IS A PROFIT…and you still have the dice in your hands because your roll isn’t over yet.

I find that players have a tendency to relax more when they know that their bets are paid for.  The more relaxed you are, the more likely that you will be able to focus on a good consistent throw.  The more relaxed you are, the more likely that you’ll be able to stay focused and in the zone.  When your mind is tense, your body is tense.  That usually leads to “over playing” your throw.   The harder and more forcefully that you “bear down” to try to have a good throw, the more difficult it is get good results.  

A nice relaxed throw usually brings a nice relaxed reliability and evenness to your efforts.  Good playing habits seem to breed good “luck”.

So here’s the deal.  If you are a novice Precision-Shooter with a sub-par-SRR, but the Inside-Numbers are where the strength of your Signature Numbers are powerfully located; then you can still have profitable hands.

As you continue to develop your Precision-Shooting, there is no reason for you to sacrifice steady profitability, especially if you concentrate your betting methods on your Signature Numbers.  By regressing your wagers, and locking up an early profit, you can center your attention on better Precision-Shooting.  That way, the profit takes care of itself, as you take care of improving your consistency.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the tables…and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor

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