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Dodging Bullets as
a Darksider
To Begin With
Ill start by
telling you this: The chance of a
random-roller making multiple Point-winners in a row is as follows:
Ø
There is a 40%
chance that a player will make his 1st PL-Point.
Ø
There is a 16%
chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.
Ø
There is a 7%
chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.
Ø
There is a 3%
chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.
Ø
There is a 1.2%
chance that a player will be able to make his 5th PL-Point in a row.
Ø
There is a 0.5%
chance that a player will eventually make six PL-Points in a row. These numbers have
been rounded-off, and were kindly provided by Mike Shackleford (The Wizard of Odds) and
Alan Krigman (Winning Ways). At First
Glance
The numbers
indicate that a random-rollers chances of putting together a long string of Pass-Line
winners, diminishes more and more as a hand progresses. Although each
random throw is totally independent from every other roll, the math of the dice are
inexorably drawn to an inevitable 7-Out. While we never know
exactly when a 7-Out will occur, we do know that each new roll in an extended-length hand
brings us closer and closer to the unavoidable 7-Out. Surely, armed with
this information, an astute craps player with a decent betting-method should be able to
derive somewhat of a relatively predictable profit-stream.
You Asked For It
I get quite a bit
of e-mail from readers asking for reliable back-line betting methods. Using the numbers
that I just set out for you, well take a look at one of my favorite DP-methods that
has always kept me in pretty good stead at choppy or cool-trending tables. Understanding My
Philosophy
At the craps table,
I mostly have to rely upon my own Precision-Shooting skills, iron-willed discipline and
conservative money-management methods, to generate a steady and very lucrative income. I dont bet on
poker, Sic Bo, blackjack, tennis, Red Dog, baseball, slots, Pai Gow, hockey, baccarat,
golf, beach-volleyball, Let It Ride, backgammon, motor-racing, keno, or tiddly-winks. I dont gamble on horse-racing, football,
Caribbean Stud, yacht-racing, greyhounds, lotteries, soccer, bingo, basketball, Three-card
Monte, rugby or unnatural sex acts. I only bet on
craps. Others may tell you
that you have to master some or all of those other games to be a well-rounded
gambler. I wouldnt know; but I
can tell you that I personally only play craps to fuel a rather semi-extravagant
lifestyle. If that confirms that I am NOT a
well-rounded gambler; then to my mind, that is GOOD thing.
I DO NOT want to be
a full-time gambler who has mastered 38 different games, and still lives hand-to-mouth. I earn all of my money from playing craps, and
specifically from Precision-Shooting. Instead
of being a jack-of-all-games, I would rather be the master-of-one, especially because
Precision-Shooting can generate a sufficient income to grant a decent lifestyle (see my
Lifestyles
of the Precision-Shooter article). It is my objective
to engineer as much RISK as possible OUT of the game, and to GAMBLE as little as
possible, by perfecting my craft. Some people
love the thrill of casino-RISK. I get my
thrill from consistent casino-PROFIT. The difference is
not subtle; but it is tangible, especially to your wallet. Some people like
the prospect of throwing the dice while they have one eye on the TV monitor for the
basketball game; the other eye on the Keno-board; one ear-jack tuned into the baseball
game on their Walkman; while the other ear-piece is linked to the nightly Lottery, Hockey
and Racetrack results; and their beeper is subscribed to several sports-tout services. In the meantime, they use their unoccupied,
non-dice-shooting hand to ensure that their bingo-dauber, Lucky Lottery Number-Picking
machine, and Daily Racing Form hasnt fallen out of their pocket. If you aspire to
that kind of professional gambling lifestyle, then you are probably on the wrong website,
because you are DEFINITELY reading the wrong article!
If you eke out a living by following that path, then Ill sincerely
wish you the best of luck. Oops, I just
realized that I forgot to add Roulette and the Big 6 Wheel to the list of must
have gambling skills that the well-rounded gambler is supposed to
have. Anyway, we take a look at that entire
subject in my
Professional Precision-Shooter vs Full-Time Gambler
article. Lets focus on
making some money from craps. Maximizing
Opportunities
If youve read
my
Flushing Money Down The Random-Roller Toilet
article,
you know that the lions share of my income is derived from my own shooting (~80%), other
qualified Precision-Shooters (~15%), and a much smaller portion comes from the lucky
throwing of random-rollers (~4.5%). Clearly then, I try
to maximize my shooting opportunities by playing at sparsely-populated tables. In addition, I often employ a hit-and-run method. Ill use that shoot n
scoot approach, especially if the table starts to fill up while I am shooting, and
it doesnt looks like I will get the dice again for a fair bit of time, unless of
course, all of the players pass the dice right back to me.
However, there are
times when Ill want to stay at a particular table, especially if Ive got it
dialed-in and substantial profits (but still within the tolerable
comfort-levels of the casino) have been flowing my way.
While most casinos
will allow you to stay at your spot with little or no betting action, some are much less
tolerant. If I choose to bet
at all on any random-rollers, and the table has been choppy or trendy cool,
then Ill possibly venture onto the Darkside. What is the
Temperature?
The game of craps
is very streaky:
Ø
The dice are
red hot about 4% of the time.
Ø
The dice are
ice cold about 6% of the time.
Ø
The table
trends warm about 20% of the time.
Ø
The table
trends cool about 30% of the time.
Ø
The tables are
CHOPPY about 40% of the time. Im not going
to get into long explanations about the definition of each of these terms. They are discussed elsewhere on this site in very
fine detail. The important thing to note is
that the tables are mostly in that center-ground area of choppiness or cool-trending about
70% of the time. What Are The
Chances?
Remember, we are
specifically talking about ANY and ALL random-rollers grouped together. Lets take a closer look at what the numbers
tell us: 1st
Point
There is a 40%
chance that a random-roller will make his first PL-Point.
So 2-out-of-5 players, or 4-out-of-every-10 shooters are likely to make
their first PL-Point. 2nd
Point
There is a 16%
chance that a random-roller will make his second PL-Point in a row. So 4-out-of-25-players, or 1-out-of-every 6.25
shooters are likely to make their second PL-Point. 3rd
Point
There is a 7%
chance that a random-roller will make his third PL-Point in a row. So 7-out-of-100 players, or 1-out-of-every 14.28
shooters are likely to make their third PL-Point. To put that in
perspective, an average full-table will have about fourteen players at it, and you can
expect that overall, one of them will throw three Pass-Line Point-winners. 4th
Point
There is a 3%
chance that a random-roller will make his fourth PL-Point in a row. So 3-out-of-100 players, or 1 out-of-every 33.3
shooters are likely to make their fourth PL-Point. 5th
Point
There is a 1.2%
chance that a random-roller will make his fifth PL-Point in a row. So 1-out-of-83 players are likely to make their
fifth uninterrupted Pass-Line Point. To put that into
perspective, that means that in six trips around a full 14-player table, only
ONE player will probably make five PL-Points in a row. 6th
Point
There is a 0.5%
chance that a random-roller will make their sixth PL-Point in a row. So only 1-out-of-200 random-rollers are likely to
make six PL-Points in a row. Remember, these
numbers refer only to PL-Point winners. It
specifically ignores the Come-Out roll where a 7 or 11 is a winner, and a 2, 3 or Barred
(pushed) 12 is a loser for the PL-thrower (and just the opposite for the DP-player). Right now we are
just looking at his chances of making multiple PL-Points in a row. Dont worry; we will factor in Come-Out
winners and losers very shortly. What Do These
Numbers Tell Us?
These numbers tell
us that a Darkside player has a better chance of scoring a win AFTER a random-roller has
thrown one PL-winner. In other words, your
best chance to win would come if you bet against a player AFTER he makes one Pass-Line
Point-winner. Let me put it in
simple terms. When a new shooter
has the dice, he only has a 40% chance of making his first PL-Point. We avoid making any bets during his first
Point-cycle. If he makes his first PL-Point,
then the astute Darksider proceeds to subsequently bet against the random-roller on the
Dont Pass Line, because that shooters prospects of making a second PL-Point
winner is now only 16%. By bypassing a new
shooters first Point-cycle, the DP-player stands to profit consistently when the shooter
tries to make his second PL-Point. If by
chance the shooter manages to make that second Point, the DP-bettor knows that the
prospect of the same random-roller successfully throwing a third PL-winner is now
approximately 7%. That means that only one
out of every 14 players will manage to get this far. This
number-discussion really is leading us somewhere
so just bear with me a little longer
as I pour the foundation for what is actually a very decent method. A Logical Solution
If you believe that
7 is the most powerful number in craps, and you want a way to capitalize on
it; then the logical solution is to take full advantage of it. This is NOT a new
concept, and it is NOT an earth-shattering never-fail method, but it sure does work most
of the time. Most importantly, it provides a pretty
steady profit, with minimal-risk, if that sort of thing appeals to you. Dont Take My
Word For It
The method that I
am about to show you not only works well in real-world Choppy-table or cool-trend
situations; it does just as well in computer simulations like Win-Craps. Just set the proper
parameters of what accurately qualifies as a choppy-table or cool-trend situation; then
apply my Choppy-Table Short-Leash method. When
the trend changes, we simply stop betting on the Darkside until the choppy-table or
cool-trend situation arises again. My Choppy-Table
Short-Leash Method
As usual, Ive
used the lowest common table-minimum ($5) as the basis to explain this bet, and I would
caution you that your bankroll should be sufficient (at least $5000) before you even
consider using this method. When the table is
choppy or trending cool, here is the betting sequence that I currently use:
Ø
Wait until a
random-roller makes one Pass-Line Point.
Ø
Then, we make a $5
Dont Pass bet (no Odds).
Ø
If our bet wins,
then we wait for the next player to make one Pass-Line Point-win, and we start the process
over again.
Ø
If our first DP-bet
loses; then we increase our Dont Pass bet to $15 (no Odds).
Ø
If our second
DP-bet loses; then we increase our Dont Pass bet to $35 (no Odds).
Ø
If our third DP-bet
loses; then we increase our Dont Pass bet to $75 (no Odds).
Ø
If our fourth
DP-bet loses; then we increase our Dont Pass bet to $155 (no Odds).
Ø
If our fifth DP-bet
loses; then we stop betting on random-rollers for that session with a cumulative $285
loss. Remember, that I generally use this
method if I want to stay at a table to shoot again, and the table is choppy or cool. Why Use this Method?
Youll
probably recognize this betting-approach as a short-leash Grand Martingale. Yes, I said the M word, and I know
that Martingale is truly a dirty word for most bettors. But indulge me for a moment, and Ill show
you why it is so compelling; why it is generally profitable; and why the infrequent losses
wont prove fatal to your sufficient bankroll. How Often will
Lightning Strike?
How often will
someone throw six Pass-Line Point winners in a row, and wipe out $285 worth of your
bankroll? The answer, is that
1-out-of-every-200 players will accomplish that particular feat. Well address
the effect of the Come-Out roll 7s and 11s in a moment. Do Lay-Odds Fit In
Somewhere? Yes, but not with
this method. In Part Two
of this series, well look at a Darkside method that gets us safely past the Come-Out
roll unscathed; then uses a unique approach to Odds by inversely matching them to the
relative-risk that a DP-player faces as a random-rollers hand progresses. Odds-Bet vs.
Martingale Progression
Many people who see me occasionally using this method in a casino ask, Isnt
it better to use your money to Lay Odds instead of leaving your Martingale-progressed
Line-bets naked? Thats a good
question. Lets see if
the numbers bear that out. Take a look at what
happens to the same amount of money in a winning situation on a 3x/4x/5x-Odds table
(or where 6x Lay-Odds are permitted).
The Grand
Martingale yields one unit ($5) of profit for EACH subsequent loss, while
the DP-with-Odds gets worse and worse as you throw more and more
money at it. Again, dont
take my word for it, do the math for yourself, or run some computer simulations with
WinCraps. Getting Past The
Sheriff and the Deputy
The worst part
about betting on the Dont-Pass Line is that you have to get past the Sheriff (the 7)
and his Deputy (the 11) on the Come-Out Roll. We know that the 7
is numerically expected to show up 1-out-of-every-6 rolls, and the 11 is expected
once-every-18 rolls. This is partially offset
by the 2 (1-out-of-36 rolls) and the 3 (1-out-of-every-18 rolls) when they roll as DP
Come-Out winners. That means that the
DP-player is at a pretty lofty -45.5% disadvantage on the Come-Out roll. While todays
Choppy-Table Short-Leash method does not overcome that initial disadvantage, it is offset
by the overriding benefit that the DP-player enjoys against a random-roller trying for his
second Point (+84% advantage), third Point (+93% advantage), and fourth Point (+97%
advantage), etc. Again, Ill
remind you that this method works best on choppy tables or where the dice are moving
towards the cool-side of the trend equation. Risks and Rewards
While there is no
guarantee that a lucky shooter wont come along and wipe out your $285 session
investment-limit, it doesnt happen often. By waiting for a
random-roller to make his first Pass-Line Point-winner before we bet against him on a
choppy or cool-trending table, we move our own chances of winning (and profit) one BIG
step further up the probability-scale. By using a Grand
Martingale progression (double, plus one unit), we ensure that we arent just betting
to earn one unit of profit. Rather, we are
earning one unit of profit for EACH loss that we endure on our way to winning. This
ever-increasing-profit scale works to offset the Come-Out Roll disadvantage
and the occasional 1-in-200 lucky rollers who make more than six Pass-Line Points. Reasonable Limits
By limiting the
Choppy-Table Short-Leash method to five steps of betting, we ensure that our
wagering-exposure doesnt spiral out of control, and it keeps our bankroll from being
smashed to smithereens. In addition, I need
to remind you that you CANNOT play this method all of the time! You need to wait for choppy tables or a
cool-trend, and you need to stop betting with this method if the table starts to warm up. Remember that to be
successful on the Darkside, you have to continually dodge bullets. In this case, if you are always going deep into
the progression (past the 3rd or 4th betting-step), then the table
is probably warming up, and this method obviously becomes vulnerable to failure at that
point. Look at it from
this perspective: if several players in a row are each throwing three or four Pass-Line
Point-winners, then the table is DEFINITELY turning WARM, and its well past the time
to switch betting-methods. Simply Put
This is a method
that is perfectly suited to the random gyrations of real-world casino tables. When you apply it to the right conditions, it is a
consistent money-maker, and its an excellent way to dodge bullets when you are
playing on the Darkside. Good Luck &
Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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