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DiceSetter.com's Precision Shooter's Newsletter

Volume VI : Issue #7

Date July 2006

In This Edition:

A Word From Soft Touch

Ask The Queen Bee...

Bone Tracker Revealed Part V

Some Assembly Required...

Address Correction...

A Labor of Love...

Newsletter Archive Links

It’s Time For A Dice Party!   And, You’re All Invited!

Mark your calendar folks and plan to be in Las Vegas

Saturday, September 30^th, 2006.

Have you “lost that lovin’ feeling” for your craps game?  Do you feel it is time to get back to craps basics? If you are nodding your head with a big YES, then

it is time to join our First Free Dice Playshop.*

I have teamed up with the Dice Coach, Michael Vernon and other active members of our community to provide you all with a priceless day of education, sharing of ideas and most importantly, creating new experiences.

We’re going to add to your gaming toolbox.  Plans are in the works to focus on your mechanics, money management and getting you in the right frame of mind.

Come join the fun.  Meet new players, rekindle old friendships and finally connect with the face to the name of that person you’ve been communicating with on the boards.

This will absolutely be an event you won’t want to miss!  It is time to elevate your game.

Watch for more specific details in upcoming weeks.  Information will be posted on the forum and in subsequent newsletters.

See you at my Playshop!*     “Yikes Mister!!!!”

*(This will be a previous student and members only R.S.V.P. event.)

Reserve your place by September 10th Call toll free 866-342-3626

A pair of precision dice = $5.00

Flight to Las Vegas = $500.00

First DICE PLAYSHOP…… PRICELESS!

Some members of our dice community were surprised to hear that….

I was a table tub virgin.  (Quickly say this three word tongue twister three times.)

In the past, I had heard and read from quite a few members claiming to have some positive experiences dice tossing on the rarely sighted tub tables.  Always having the desire to work on something new, my dice friends and I trekked on over to see what the excitement was all about at the Casino Royale found on the strip in Vegas.

Does size matter for your first time?  Well, let me just say that as long as a player knows ahead of time how to accommodate for the smaller playing surface, having to position yourself in a chair, tossing frosty red dice with sharp edges and exchanging chips with only one dealer, any savvy player should be able to adjust quickly to this money making opportunity.

While I will keep the intimate details of a delightful and profitable experience to myself, let me just write that for my first time, the table was gentle and as far as my bankroll is concerned, the size of this table did not matter when it came to the physical aspect of my toss.  This was a case of quality rather than quantity. And, I loved it.

By the way, for those of you who were a bit turned off by the nasty and old table surface that hadn’t been changed since WW II, know that the surface is now brand new and it’s worth playing in that little “sand box” once again. I recommend you experience this at least once.

A more in depth look at how to approach these little “gems” can be found in one of Mad Pro’s series on a mini tour of tub tables found in his area of the web site:  https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/mad113mini2.htm.  It is an interesting read.

While you’re at it, if you’ve been following Mad Professor’s Regression Avoids Depression series, he’s added his next installment found here: https://www.dicesetter.com/mp/mad140regressionS.htm.

In addition, be sure to read Maddog’s next installment he has provided you on making his BoneTracker software useable. There’s no excuse now for not taking your game to the next level.

That’s it for now.  Y’all be sure to mark your calendar for this September’s party.

 Soft Touch

PS If you have any suggestions for the new dicesetter.com website or newsletter please send them to Ed@dicesetter.com and I'll have a look and see how we can incorporate them into our future plans.

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From the Editor

Couples counseling is a bit of a stretch for me, but I have a tid-bit for the women readers with a man in their life.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for the day. Teach a man how to fish and you can get rid of him on weekends.

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Ask The Queen Bee...

Dear Queen Bee:

I started out practicing with casino dice that I collected from my trips. I read on your message board that home practice needs to be as close to casino conditions as possible. I found some un-canceled dice at a local novelty store. I have two questions. How long is a pair of dice good to use in practice.. about how many tosses? Second, I am not sure the dice I have are regulation casino dice. Where can I get regulation dice for practice? Anthony M. Austin, TX

What's all the Buzz about? Do you have a question for The Queen Bee?

Send your question to queenbee@dicesetter.com.

See your question published in the next edition of Dice Setters Precision Shooter's Newsletter.

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BoneTracker Revealed – Part V

By Maddog -- Copyright © 2006

I just couldn’t believe what I was seeing.  Certainly I was happy about it because it represented a significant opportunity.  The funny thing was that I always knew they were occurring, but if I hadn’t seen it here, displayed in comparison with the others, I would never have thought it was that dramatic.

Well, you know that ole’ saw; “A picture is worth a thousand words”.  Certainly true words when applied to this chart I was reviewing.  And not just this chart from the current tracking set.  The same happy little spike appeared over the number 10 on the previous couple of tracking sheets, although not as pronounced as I was seeing on this months display.  I’m usually not one to bet on the corners, but the bars just couldn’t be ignored.  I was going to have to prepare for this option and if I started seeing the 10 show, I needed to be comfortable with venturing out on the “Big End”…

~~~~

Welcome to part 5 in our 5 part series of BoneTracker Revealed.  In previous installments we covered the Roll Data, Toss Stats and Transpose tabs.  Today’s tour, we will finish off our overview of BoneTracker™ with a quick look at the Charts, Expected Value and Worksheet tabs.

Charts Tab

The Charts tab is the “at-a-glance” review of the current tracking results.  On the Charts tab we take the Toss Analysis data from the Toss Stats tab and convert it into a graphical format for a little easier consumption.  In version 4.5.1 of BT we have 5 Charts and these are;

“Number Frequency vs Random” – For each possible number (2-12), the number (count) of rolls that are expected according to Random Distribution is compared to the number (count) of rolls that were actually rolled.  This side-by-side comparison shows us where our influence is compared to expected random rolls.

1. “Number Result Frequency Percent Difference from Random Distribution” – This graph is one of my favorites.  It displays the difference between the actual roll counts compared to the expected random roll counts as a percentage.  Just a quick glance at this graph is enough to show you which numbers are rolling.  When compared over time this graph can be used to identify and verify signature numbers.

“Box Numbers to Sevens Ratios” – Unfortunately this chart is mislabeled.  It is not a box to sevens ratio, but instead a Box to Rolls Ratio.  This chart is similar to the Number Frequency graph as it compares the actual roll counts to the expected random frequency, but this graph groups the counts of numbers according to common betting schemes.  Across, Inside, Outside, Horn, World, and Field.  When viewed together the Box to Roll Ratio and the Sevens to Rolls Ratio combine to provide an interesting picture of expected roll hits and durations

1. “HA/PA for Pass Line” – House Advantage (HA) or Player Advantage (PA) for the Pass Line bet is displayed in this graph.  A negative number represents an advantage to the House and a positive number is an advantage to the player.  The graph displays information for; Actual Tossed Results, the three seven avoidance sets from the Transpose tab (3V, 2V, and X6), and the three user defined permutations from the Transpose tab.  In addition, for each grouping the results for Pass Line only, with 1x odds, 2x odds, 5x odds, and 10x odds is provided. 

An important note regarding this graph:  Since we are generally tossing a single set and primarily we are tossing a Point Cycle set, the numbers here will tend represent Edge of the Point Cycle – setting and repeating a box number.  Since we are not setting for the Come-Out, the come-out naturals and losers are somewhat missing from the results.  Similarly if we are tracking a Come-Out Set, then the opposite is true and we are mostly tracking come-out action and the Point-Cycle results are missing or diluted.  Keep this in mind and beware when looking at these Edge figures.

“HA/PA for Various Right-Side Bets” – This chart is very similar to the one for Pass Line bets, but focuses on various right side bet results.  Again,

1. the note about the types of tosses we are tracking applies and you need to be aware that the normal come-out/point cycle flow is diluted with our practice tracking.  The good news is that most of these bets are either independent of the Come-Out or occur after the Come-Out and so are much less affected by this side-effect.

Although all the data which is displayed in these series of charts is available in numeric format on the Toss Stats tab, seeing the information in a graphical comparison format can often provide insights that the raw numbers don’t convey.  After a practice session the Charts tab is often the first place I look to see if my expected Signature Numbers are holding.  Looking at the charts is a way to get a feel for what the overall data looks like from the charts tab, then move on to the Toss Stats tab to get into the details of why a certain pattern is occurring. 

Expected Value (EV) Tab

The EV Tab displays the expected value of many common Craps bets, based on the actual roll results (and the Transposed roll results as converted from the actual roll results).  The displays of the HA/PA charts on the Charts Tab retrieve their information from this tab, so again review the note about the effect of our “peculiar” toss tracking and the impact that has on the results shown here. 

There are some hidden worksheets that are performing the calculation for this display.  The worksheets are hidden merely to get them out of the way.  You may also notice two tabs, one labeled “EV_Toss” and one labeled “Proof”.  These tabs also contain the calculation used to generate the figures and can be reviewed to check the math behind the Edge calculations.  For the Edge formulas we use the standard calculation methods but replace the expected random probability values (i.e. a five has a probability of rolling 4 in 36, an eight has a probability of rolling 5 in 36, etc.) with the probability values from the actual tracking results.

Worksheet Tab

This is a worksheet that you can print out and take to your toss station. Use it to write down your toss results and then later, re-key them into the “Roll Data” Tab.  This page is optional and is included only as an aid.  As an example, I usually print up about 10 copies of this page at a time.  I place the sheets in a 3 ring binder which I keep at my toss station.  While tossing, I write down the results onto a page.  Once a page is completed, I then take it and re-key the numbers into the “Roll Data” Tab for analysis.

(Note: I no longer print up the worksheets.  Instead I take a laptop to my toss station and use the Data Entry Assistant to enter the roll results directly as I am tossing.  Saves a lot of time.)

~~~~

This completes our tour of BoneTracker.  From its humble beginning as a simple spreadsheet to track my toss results, it has grown over the years to a nice little gadget in the DI toolbox.  In the next iteration I’ll be adding a few more bells and whistles to try and squeeze out a little more DI information and perhaps make it a bit easier to use in the processes.

Tracking the Bones is an important part of the DI processes.  It provides a validation of our ability to influence the dice.  We do it to follow our progress and measure improvements.  And tracking helps find our Pattern of Influence in order to focus betting strategies where they can provide the optimal impact.

BoneTracker is an efficient tool for performing our tracking, but it is only a tool.  It can’t toss the dice for you and it can’t make the money for you.  Only you can add those ingredients.  But with practice, perseverance and patience you too will find a path to the DI way.

Until next time, keep your toss straight and your rack full.

/Maddog

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Some Assembly Required

Copyright © Michael Vernon

"The Professor"

What I am about to share is not so much a secret as overlooked and forgotten elements of gaming strategy. It seems that there is not enough coverage written on this ignored subject. It reminds me of the enclosed directions when, “some assembly is required”. I tear into the box, barely glancing at the neatly folded directions written in five different languages, and proceed with the assembly on my own. After a while, I discover a problem. I have not put things together in the proper order. Because I have incorrectly snapped a section together, I am unable to fit the next piece without breaking apart what I have already accomplished. So it is with craps and disciplined play. Once discipline is abandoned, you do not get a second chance to reassemble a mistake.

Discipline: No one can make you play with discipline. Discipline is self-imposed action. It sounds simple enough, and like the paper directions, discipline is often quick to be discarded. The casino manipulates the player subtly and blatantly. Self-control is essential for long term success. What do you have control over? You have control of when you play, how long you play, how much money you put on the line and the environment you will accept for playing. Engage discipline and you have control.

When you play: You should be at your best, sharp as a tack. Be well rested and mentally prepared to focus on the game. Drinking is discouraged. Play your game right, and you will win an adequate amount for drinks, dinner and a show later. Emotionally, you must be centered, not unbalanced by “shoulds” and peer pressure. Do not play if you are angry or otherwise upset. Pick times to play when you will not have an end time constraint. To play a game just before a flight or another appointment would not be my choice. I prefer at least a four-hour window. Play when you feel free to play. One never knows how long a session may take. It can be brief or you may be in for the long haul. The idea of a deadline restriction can cause you undue anxiety to play in a game that you were better off avoiding.

How long you play: How long you play depends on several factors, stamina, and bankroll and of course the direction of the game. I have won 43 units in twelve minutes and have played four hours just getting back to even. The longer you play the more exposure you have to the negative odds. There are numerous distractions in a casino, all tugging on your energy. I find that after a couple of hours standing at the table my focus and awareness begins to wane. Take a break with the first sign of fatigue. The tendency for the weekend warrior is to get in as much action as possible. Big mistake! It is better to be patient and have a plan for your sessions with designed breaks. It is better to be selective and cautious in the front end than wishing you had employed more discipline on the flight home. Remember, being in control, is how to eliminate the losing sessions.

Once in a game, play alert to the direction of the game. Just because you have been in the game for only a short time does not mean you have to stand there and slug it out in a losing cause. There has to be some positive energy or financial encouragement to hang with a game. If not, have the discipline to walk. Have the courage to leave a game. Do not allow desperation to affect your desire to play.

How much you play: How much you play is a factor of your total bankroll and your comfort with the table minimum. Never engage games under bankrolled. Never play over your head financially. Most players enter a craps game under bankrolled. Simply stated, they do not buy in with enough capital to support the kind of action that they intend to play. Playing craps requires a lot more capital than other games. Few players recognize this fact. I teach my students to think of each bet as a separate investment. As such, each bet has its own appropriate bankroll. There are numerous opinions on this one. I suggest ten times the unit bet for each bet wagered. A $5 pass line player with double odds, that also likes to place bet the six and eight for $12 each, would buy in for $390. This provides the player with two critical aspects of the game:

1.)    Having enough capital invested to engage the game for a reasonable chance at

        profit.

2.)    Providing a palatable built in “stop loss”. Limiting loss protects you from ruin. The

        over all bankroll is protected as well as the emotional bankroll.

Reaching into the pocket to pull out more cash is chasing a loss. It is metaphysically and psychologically weak to buy in under bankrolled and then pull money from your pocket. It is smarter to put it all out, fully capitalized. Never forget you have the discipline to walk away at any time. Walking takes discipline and it is the player’s best defense. Never be afraid to pick up your chips and walk. You do not have to stand there and play it all away. You are in control and you can quit anytime.

Where you play: You should play at a casino you enjoy and one where you feel comfortable playing. It is important to perceive a sense of honoring and appreciation not only from the establishment but from the employees as well. Chasing around for a game burns energy. I say, “stay where you like play”. If your action is rated, then you are there for the discounts and comps. I like to stay at Treasure Island. If there is nothing going on at T.I., it is a short walk to other favorites, the Mirage and the Venetian. Without too much effort, I am minutes away from world class casinos. Where you play does make a difference, as gaming should be a pleasurable experience.

The hardest part of discipline is to play disciplined. Duh! The reason it is difficult has to do with being able to come to an agreement with yourself. The ego, intellect and emotion tend to over-ride self-discipline. Without self-discipline, it is easy to talk oneself out of what is best and what is true. You find yourself in a profitable game and then someone has a big hand. You have made a handsome profit. You know from experience that a big hand is the exception not the rule. The smart money is coloring up. If you have the discipline to color up you will have a tidy profit. However, your mischievous little voice says, “if you play longer you could have even more”. The agreement with yourself to quit the game takes discipline. It takes accepting what you have won and being comfortable with the knowing that there is always another game. It is an affirmation of abundance. There are plenty of games. You can only color up winners when you are winning. Walking away is your best gaming asset. You exercise your freedom of choice and discipline empowers you. Without discipline, you empower the casino. What’s it going to be mate?

Some assembly is required. Follow the steps of discipline in your game and eliminate needless mistakes. When it comes to gaming, the odds against the player do not allow for the luxury of playing with a mistake. Having the discipline to be honest with yourself will always separate you, the winner, from the losers.

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In the June edition, books by Richard Armstrong were suggested reading. The web address posted was in error. The correct address is (no longer on line.)

God Doesn't Shoot Craps... a divine comedy by Richard Armstrong.

A suspenseful and thought-provoking novel for America's growing love affair with Las Vegas and gambling... funny too!

Meet Danny Pellegrino, a junk-mail con man who has made a good living selling fake gambling systems to gullible people. But when he discovers that his latest "scam" actually works, he suddenly becomes the world's most wanted man as he races to build a fortune before someone discovers his secret.

FREE - FREE "Get Paid to Gamble"  You can have this e-book from Richard with his compliments. That's right, download "Get Paid to Gamble" for FREE to DiceSetter.com subscribers. Click the link. (No longer on line.)

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