BoneTracker Revealed –
Part IV
By Maddog -- Copyright
© May 2006
“Wow” I thought while looking over the results of the
last 72 tosses. “Look at those clumps of eights. Interesting how only
the eight seems to show this clumping pattern. Those clumps must
represent a series of very similar tosses. Boy I should be able take
advantage of those streaks and make the out-side-in progressions really
get to work.”
If that dice set gives up groups of eights, then I just
have to find a set that will spin off profits for my come-out
cycle. I should be able to find a dice set that, when matched to my toss
characteristics, will provide me with groups of sevens.
While thinking through this “groups of sevens” idea, I
remember some additional strategies that involve the Game-within-a-Game
come-out cycle which involved taking the GwaG action to another level.
Ideas entail working the horn type bets on the come-out roll. Clumps of
horn numbers? I have a Homer Simpson moment; “mmmmmmm….horn numbers…..”
Now I already know that the Straight-Sixes (S6) set is
the king of the sets that work the horn numbers, what with six total
on-axis horn number roll combinations. As I check the Frequency Chart I
also see that the Crossed-Sixes (X6) set comes in second for horn numbers
with four total on-axis horn numbers. Hmmm… but the X6 gives up two of
the on-axis seven possibilities. Hmmm… a trade off, but a trade off of
what?
First things first. I need to check into these sets
and find a permutation that looks promising for the horn action
objective. I should be able to puzzle out a couple of possible promising
combinations using BoneTrackers Transposition tab.
Of course then I’m going to need to fiddle around with
the bets and find a bet/dice-set combination that works. So much to do,
so little time… hmmm, what about that horn progression concept…
~~~~
Welcome to part 4 in
our 5 part series of BoneTracker Revealed. For today’s
tour, we will review the “Transpose” tab.
The Transpose tab provides a bit of “what-if”
modeling. The idea is to see “what-if” I had used dice-set ‘X’ for the
last 360 tosses instead of the set I actually tossed? BoneTracker does
this by mapping alternate dice pip configurations to the
actual dice-face results.
Think of it this way. Pretend you have a set of dice,
but instead of being red with white pips to denote numbers, the pips are
removed and the dice instead had colored faces. See in your mind's eye
one of the die and that die having a separate color for each side. For
example, a red side, a blue side, a white side, a yellow side, a green
side and an orange side. To keep the left die distinct from the right
die, lets assume the second die has the same colors, but in a darker
shade. Got it? Ok, now imagine that we set the dice so that the left die
uses light colors and the right die uses dark colors.
Now that we have these rainbow dice, imagine we set the
dice so that the red faces are on top (left-die light red, right-die dark
red) and we turn the dice so that the white faces are facing us (left-die
white, right-die grey) and so on. Ok, got the picture?
Now we toss our rainbow colored dice and record the
results. We record the results by denoting which Face-Color
appeared. For our example, we look at the toss results and find the dice
have ended up as follows; left-die light green, right-die dark red.
The only thing left to do is to overlay the pip markings of a valid dice
set over the colors to determine how that overlaid set would have ended
up. Imagine we set up a mapping chart similar to the one below.
Left Die (Light) |
|
Right Die (Dark) |
FACE |
3V |
2V |
X6 |
|
FACE |
3V |
2V |
X6 |
Top |
3 |
2 |
6 |
|
Top |
3 |
2 |
6 |
Front |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Front |
6 |
3 |
3 |
Bottom |
4 |
5 |
1 |
|
Bottom |
4 |
5 |
1 |
Back |
5 |
6 |
5 |
|
Back |
1 |
4 |
4 |
Left side |
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
Left side |
2 |
6 |
5 |
Right side |
6 |
4 |
4 |
|
Right side |
5 |
1 |
2 |
For the 3V our results would have been 1 and 3 for an
off axis four. For the 2V we would have gotten a 3 and 2 for an off-axis
five and with the Crossed Sixes set we would have tossed a 3 and 6 for an
off-axis nine.
We can continue to (metaphorically) peel off the pips
and paste on different sets of valid pip markings each time seeing how the
new set would have ended up. One might say that this particular leopard
can change its spots.
This is the basic idea
behind the BoneTracker Transpose tab. The shooter selects a dice
set and tosses as many tosses as he wishes. The computer then
maps various alternate dice sets over the actual
tracked tosses and returns the
“what-would-have-happened-had-I-used-that-set” results. And since
this is what computers are good at; the results can be mapped over and
over on as many alternate sets as we’d like.
The benefit of providing and reviewing these transposed
sets is that we get to super-charge our ability to analyze the toss
results. We are able to gain insight into several different dice sets
simultaneously against a common apples-to-apples collection of practice
tosses.
Now that we have this understanding of what BoneTracker
is trying to show us on the Transpose tab. Let’s go ahead now and
take a detailed look at the Transpose tab layout.
As usual we start off with a (blurry) view of the
entire screen:

As in our previous articles, we will break this screen
into more focused sections. The sections of the Transpose tab are;
~ Tossing Set Reference
~ Standard Permutation Reference
~ User Defined Permutations
Tossing Set Reference
Once again we have a
section that provides a reference to the actual set that is
being tossed and tracked, along with some basic results
information. This information is displayed in columns A through D. The
configured tossing set is displayed in the upper rows under the heading of
“Tossing Set Reference”. In the rows below that we see the actual Toss
Count and Difference from Theoretical in both count and percentage form.
As we review the “what-if” transposed sections of the page, these columns
serve as a quick comparison against what was actually tossed.
Standard Permutation Reference
As a starting reference point, BoneTracker has built in
the six standard base set permutations.
Each column is color coded to set the columns apart and
improve readability (yeah, I know it is a page full of numbers and barely
readable even with the colors, what can I say?). The colored columns each
represent a mapped, or transposed, permutation from the actual recorded
tosses. For this “Standard Permutation Reference”, each column represents
on of the base axial sets in its standard configuration; the Mini-V,
Flying-V, Crossed-Sixes, Hardways/All-7’s, Straight-Sixes, and
Parallel-Sixes.
The
columns are read from the top down.
Let’s review the grey colored column as an example.
As depicted in the column title, this is the standard
V3, or Flying-Vee, permutation.
Below the column title is the dice set permutation
layout. The values entered here represent the dice set face configuration
for this permutation and are used by BT as the mapping template for
transposing the actual results.
Note: If you look back at the image of the main
screen you can see how the configuration values align with the face
pattern definitions on the far upper left of the screen.
If you follow along
here you see that the top faces are set as 3 and 3, the front faces are
set as 2 and 6, the bottom faces as 4 and 4, the back faces as 5 and 1,
the left side faces as 1 and 2, and the right side faces as 6 and 5.

If you have a pair of dice in front of you and align
them as described, they should now look like this:
Below the permutation layout is the listing of the
transposed frequency distribution by number. These are the cumulative
transposed results for the permutation i.e. how many fives rolled, how
many sixes rolled, how many sevens rolled, etc. Next to the cumulative
count is the difference from expected theoretical random dice.
The example set shown here shows that the V3
permutation would have resulted in 22 sevens, two less then random
expectation of 24 sevens in 144 rolls. Compare this result with what is
shown in the columns for the Straight-Sixes and Parallel-Sixes
permutations. Each of those permutations shows four fewer sevens then
random and a slightly better SRR to boot (as shown at the bottom of the
columns). Would this lead you to recommend that the shooter utilize one
or both of these sets for their point cycle?
I wouldn’t recommend that he switch sets, at least not
to either of those. I’ll leave it to you to decide if I’m right or wrong,
while we move on to the next section of the Transpose tab (Hint: Think in
terms of trade offs. What are we giving up to get fewer sevens?)
User Defined Permutations
To the left of the Standard Permutation Reference is
the section for User Defined Permutations.
The
User Defined permutation section is where any dice set permutation of
interest is entered to see the ‘what-if’ results.
Just like the Standard Reference permutations, the User
Defined section is a series of column, each column representing a
permutation of interest.
Each column begins with the permutation name. In the
template these are listed as “p1” (for Permutation One) through “p6”.
Below the name is the
layout of the dice set. To enter new
permutations enter the dice set, according to the now
familiar layout pattern provided. Simply edit right over the top of the
existing dice set. If toss tracking data currently exists in BT, the new
frequency distributions are calculated as the new permutation is entered.
Information about the entered permutation is immediately provided.
As with the Standard Reference set permutations, below
the user entered permutation layout is the cumulative transposed results
including the “what-if” SRR for the user entered permutation.
If the six User Defined columns are not enough for your
objectives or maybe you wish to compare a couple dozen sets and don’t like
having to type them in over and over; here is a TIP for you. There
are two ways to add additional User Defined columns to BT.
The easiest way is to copy & paste a duplicate copy of
the entire Transpose tab. Right-Click on the Transpose tab near the
bottom of the screen, choose the ‘Move or Copy…” menu option from the
pop-up menu and then click the “Create a Copy” checkbox on the Move or
Copy dialog. Finally click the “OK’ button and Excel will create a copy
of the Transpose tab and label it “Transpose (2)”. You now have a new
sheet with 12 additional columns available for entering permutations.
The second way to add additional permutation columns is
to copy & paste an existing permutation column (Note: you want to copy the
entire column). The advantage to using this technique is that
copying and pasting additional columns into a single worksheet provides
for viewing many permutations together on a single worksheet tab.
IMHO, this is one of the most fun parts of tracking
rolls in BoneTracker. After a practice session, I will often spend a
significant amount of time entering various permutations looking for that
“just right” optimal set. There are many ways to fiddle with a promising
set; switch left and right dice, rotating the left die around the faces,
rotating the right die around the faces, and so on. There is something
like 576 total set permutations so it is easy to go crazy looking for one
that meets your betting objective.
The Transpose tab is really about finding a set that
accomplishes a given betting objective. Suppose you really like the 2 for
1 pay-off on a Buy Ten. Your desire is to find a dice set that is both
low in sevens and strong in tens, to make the play profitable enough to
overcome the vig and (hopefully) bring in some cash. Assuming your toss is
reasonably consistent over time, your results should be reasonably
consistent over time, so it is just a matter of finding a set that maps
over your face results and produces the number combination you desire.
We know that the
mini-v has the best on-axis distribution of 4’s and 10’s, so the
first thing I would do is start working through 2V
permutations, looking for a combination that supported the objective of
low sevens and high tens. If we can’t find a set with the 2V, we can move
on to one of the other sets and so on until we found what we a set that
fits the bill.
~~~~
So that’s it, BoneTracker’s Transpose tab
revealed. Normally the recommendation is to match your bets to your
toss. With the Transpose tab, BoneTracker can help you find a set to
match your bets. I hope this opens a whole new dimension to your DI
journey.
Next month we will wrap up this tutorial (ok, ok,
enough cheering already). In the final chapter we will cover the Charts
tab, for the more visually inclined, and a little talk about the Edge
calculations.
Until next time, keep your toss straight and your rack
full.
/Maddog
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the top>
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