Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter    

Welcome back to another edition of the  Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter .  As we head into February, Dice Setter celebrates its three year anniversary.  Hard to believe isn't it?  A lot has changed since I originally posted the site and invited some friends to contribute their insight and knowledge.  

For those that have been around since the beginning, you are owed a great deal of gratitude for your participation and to those who have come to the site more recently, thank you for your interest and support.  As an indication of the growing interest in dice influencing, this past month (Jan. 2004) was the busiest month EVER on the site, easily eclipsing a record breaking December. 

January also had the largest number of new subscribers to this newsletter since its inception!   In the coming year, it is anticipated that there will be several changes on the site. At this point in time, it may be necessary to make portions of the site a little less accessible.   

One change that will most certainly occur are plans to further tighten up the message board. Last year a required registration fee to access the board was initiated.

In addition, the rebuilding of several of the most important pages of the site as they have not been updated in awhile.  As changes occur, you'll be kept informed via this newsletter.   Thanks again for joining this journey....  Now let's get on with the newsletter.

If you have any questions, feel free to email Ed at ed@dicesetter.com

Thanks for supporting Dice Setter.. !

Playing Craps:  Investing in the Dice Wisely
By: David Medansky, author of CRAPS: A WINNING STRATEGY

Ever asked yourself what is the difference between playing craps and investing?  If not, you should.  There is very little difference between the two.  Some investments have a high risk factor with a greater rate of return, while other investments have a lower risk factor and a lower rate of return.  Similarly, some craps bets have a higher risk factor with a greater win pay-off, while other craps bets have a lower risk factor with a lower win pay-off.

There are many similarities between various types of investments and playing craps.  For example, investing in commodities futures or options is extremely risky compared to investing in certificates of deposits.  The commodities futures or options will, of course, allow you to make more profit.  However, there is a greater chance you can lose a substantial amount of money investing in commodities futures or options.  Investing in a certificate of deposit will provide you with a smaller profit, but you have little, if any, risk of losing your money.  In craps, placing a bet on the “2" or “12" will allow you to win more (30 to 1), but there is a considerable likelihood you will lose your bet - greater than 97% probability of losing.  Placing a bet on the “6" or “8" you will win a smaller amount of money (7 to 6), but there is less likelihood you will lose your bet - less than 17% of losing.

Webster’s New World Dictionary, Compact School & Office Edition, defines “Invest” as “to put (money) into business, bonds, etc. in order to get a profit.”  Webster’s Dictionary defines “Gamble” as “1.  To play games of chance for money, etc. 2.  To take a risk for an advantageous position.”  By comparing the definitions of “invest” and “gamble,” one can ascertain that if you invest, you are putting money into stocks (business) or bonds or bank certificates of deposit in order to make a profit.  If you “gamble” (play craps), you are putting money (a wager) on a portion of the Craps table layout in order to win money.  Depending upon how you invest and how you bet playing craps determines if you will have greater chance of making or losing your money.

With most investments, if you want to earn more money, you need to make larger investments or take more risk.   Playing craps is no different.   If you want to earn more money playing craps, you need to make larger bets with less probability of losing and not necessarily play longer.  For example, let’s assume investor “Able” purchased 100 shares of XYZ Corporation for $10/share; investor “Baker” purchased 1,000 shares of XYZ Corporation for $10/share and investor “Charlie” purchased 10,000 shares of XYZ Corp for $10/share, all on the same day.  If the next day or so XYZ Corp stock prices increases by $1 to $11/share, investor “Able” will make $100, investor “Baker” will make $1,000 and investor “Charlie” will make $10,000.  The difference is investor “Charlie” risked more money to earn more than investors “Able” and “Baker.”  Similarly, player “Alpha” betting $5, player “Beta” betting $25 and player “Omega” betting $100 on the same bets will win or lose proportionately the same percentage.  The difference is that “Omega” will win more money because he is risking more.

As the old saying goes, “It’s not what you make, but what you keep.”  Professional investors and money managers always have a plan for implementing their investment strategies.  Professionals set realistic rates of return (profits) for their investments before they make the investment.  They know when to “take money off the table.”  The professionals also limit losses with stop loss orders or know specific points at which to exit an investment if it does not perform as expected.  Similarly, professional gamblers always have a plan for implementing their gaming strategies.  In order to invest in the dice wisely, you must set a goal for a realistic rate of return (how much you want to win) before you bet.  Once you reach your goal, you must walk away from the table with your profits.  To do otherwise is to get greedy.  Being greedy will cause you to lose money. 

How many people do you know who made a lot of money in the stock market in the late 90's only to see their portfolios drop dramatically.  People lost money because they refused to take profits once they were made.  To my knowledge, no one ever went broke taking a profit.  Likewise, no one ever lost money walking away from a craps table with their winnings, no matter how small.  You must also know specifically when to stop if you are losing money during a session and the betting strategy is not working (performing) as expected.

To illustrate my point about the importance of goal setting, I want to tell you about a friend of mine, who we will call Zeke.   In January 2001, Zeke accompanied me on a trip to Las Vegas.  Zeke set a goal to win $400.  Zeke played his betting strategy instead of mine because he wanted to win more money in a short period of time.  Had Zeke bet my strategy, his goal should have been to win approximately $200.  Zeke lost $350 in 45 minutes while I won $660.  Keep in mind Zeke and I were betting on the same shooters at the same table.  One of the differences between how Zeke was betting and what I was doing, was I was taking my winnings down after one or two rolls of the dice while Zeke was leaving his bets up longer.

Determined to recoup his losses, Zeke went to the Blackjack table and promptly lost another $550 in approximately 20 minutes.  Still determined to “win back” his losses, Zeke played Roulette.  Zeke lost another $600 in about 15 minutes.  Zeke lost a total of $1,500 in an hour and 20 minutes.

Zeke did NOT set an exit point to stop betting if he was losing money.  Zeke did not set a “realistic goal” to win.  Had Zeke done so and followed my betting strategy, Zeke would have won $280 playing craps instead of losing $350.

So what does it take to be able to invest in the dice wisely?

Discipline.

A plan of action.

Setting realistic goals for winning per session.

A large enough bankroll to support amount of bets being made.

A pre-determined exit point if have a losing session (limit losses).

Knowledge of the game of craps.  Understand the bets you intend to make before you make the bet.   Know the risk in making the bet before you make it.

If you apply investment techniques to playing craps, you should be able to minimize your losses while maximizing your profits (wins).  It is important to remember, just as there is no full proof strategy to investing, there is no full proof strategy to playing craps.

On a final note, ironically the knowledgeable craps player may have a greater sense of control over his “investment” since he knows exactly what the odds are against him.  How many people can say that about their stock portfolios given the recent stock (Enron, WorldCom & Price Waterhouse) and mutual fund scandals?

 

Positive Expectation
by Kent Glines, CHT (Clinical Hypnotherapist)

When I made the "Zone" recordings I tried to make them as a "catch all" so that they could be used by any dice setter. The recordings were intended as a starting point to introduce players to the power of hypnosis and its uses. Do they work? Yes…IF you take the time to listen to them like some people have.

Team Play
A Roundtable Discussion with Mad Professor, Heavy, TinhornGambler, Stevan and Jeffrey47

Mad Professor

As you know, there is a small number of those teams out there right now, and the ones that I know of do quite well.

There's a couple of common traits that each team shares.

~They each treat it as a very serious business. Some even set up a company, or at least a "subchapter S corporation" (with 75 or fewer shareholders, which enables the company to enjoy the benefits of incorporation but be taxed as if it were a partnership). On the other hand, the team members of one group have NEVER filed an individual I.R.S. return IN THEIR ENTIRE LIFE.

~They each have a hierarchy as to who is in charge, and whom is responsible for what. So you have a president or leader, an accountant or treasurer, an organizer or logistics guy, etc.

~They all have a common bond and a shared philosophy. In some cases they are brothers or siblings or related family members. In others, they are business partners and associates, or in some cases, they belong to a "family of sorts" but they are definitely not related by blood.

They all use several "cover" techniques.

~They DO NOT all stay at the same hotel, nor do they eat their meals at the hotel that they are targeting.

~They do not talk to each other in the casino, nor do they even let on that they know each other. They use separate vehicles and only rendezvous at non-target locations.

If all of this sounds like cloak and dagger, covert "spook" stuff, its because they want to safeguard the good thing that they have going on. They realize that sloppiness, greed and complacency was the downfall of previous "advantage play" teams.

The two best teams that I am most familiar with use play techniques that are almost identical to those employed by the card-counting teams set up by the late Ken Uston.

In the Precision-Shooting context, it works like this:

~The team has AT LEAST two, if not three highly skilled shooters, one "spotter", and one BIG bettor.

~Each shooter plays at a DIFFERENT table. When they get the dice, the shooter bets at reasonable levels ($10 to $25 base PL-bet, full Odds, $110 Inside or $130/$135 Across).

~The spotter keeps an eye on everyone's progress. They have numerous signals worked out to keep each team member aware of how things are going at their respective table. If one of the team members starts to get "hot", the spotter signals for the Big Player to enter that particular game.

~In the meantime, the Big Player has been sitting at a nearby BJ game or at a slot machine (manually playing one coin at a time), or just casually walking around with a drink in his hand.

~The Big Player already has cheques (chips) in his pocket, so he doesn't have to interrupt the game. Rather, he steps up unobtrusively and makes bets which correspond with the wagers that the shooter has PRESSED (on his own Place bets). That is the direct signal as to what numbers are clicking for this shooter.

~The Big Player bets BIG. In some cases he'll start with $500 on each of the current Power Numbers, and start pressing aggressively from the very first hit.

Obviously, these guys only strike the big, more bet-tolerant gaming houses around the world, and they don't make major hits at the same place more than once a month.

Heavy

There are a few people out there I would consider hooking up with for Team Play. But the sad truth is - it's damn few.

I can think of no quicker way to end a friendship than through a shared bankroll - especially if someone strays from the pre-planned betting strategy and the bankroll bleeds away.

MP has pretty much covered the make up of your typical team. What he did not mention was that occasionally a player of some repute will be invited to audition for one of these teams. It's happened to me before, but the thought of playing with other people's money in the amounts they were discussing turned me off on the deal. Had I been twenty-five years younger and single . . . well, that's another story.

MP mentioned the hierarchy of the team - and he is absolutely dead on. A couple of shooters, a spotter who doubles as the accountant, and Mr. Cash. I saw a three man team working at the Horseshoe in Bossier City one day - an Asian kid and a very obese white guy were the shooters - one stick right and one stick left. Mr. Cash - playing the part of a wealthy Texan - was at the table doing all the betting. At the end of one hand of around 29 numbers I complimented one of the shooters on the way he handled the dice. He immediately knew he'd been "made" and the entire team left the casino. Yep, a tad on the paranoid side.

Well, I find this all immensely intriguing. At this point in my life I can't imagine playing on a team. But I will tell you that the subject interests me enough that I've started a novel on the subject. No, it won't be finished anytime soon. The last novel I wrote took three years to complete. But I could conceivably have this one finished in two. I just have to get to the casino to do a little more research . . .

Mad Professor

Well to give you an idea of how good (but identifiable) some of these teams are; as soon as Heavy mentioned the obese white guy and the Asian kid, I knew he was giving a perfect description of the incredible shooting duo of "Jimmy and Ian" (at least that's the name that they usually go by, so I'll leave it to your imagination as to whether or not that is their REAL names).

In any event, there are currently about half a dozen teams (that I know of) who are cris-crossing the world with that kind of Precision-Shooting group play. In one way, it really is a small world when you combine that level of betting with an equal caliber of dice setting skill. There are very few that are good enough to make sustainable LARGE money without imploding under the competitive weight of inflated egos and hedonistic self-indulgence...VERY FEW!

Heavy brings up some excellent points about being part of that sort of team.

~If I am going to lose MY money, I would strongly prefer that it be done during MY own hands, and not be lost on someone else's bad throws. That way, I know what went wrong and I know generally how I'm going to correct it on the next go-round with the dice. Most importantly I know WHO TO BLAME for any losses, and who to thank for any WINS.

~I don't want to have to place my faith in the shooting abilities of others. That would be especially true if I was shooting great and my team-mates were living the high life off of my skills without pulling their own weight.

~Conversely, I would feel like absolute crap if someone else was pulling all of the weight for the team, and my own shooting was diminishing our overall profitability. That is why the bond between the players has to be MUCH STRONGER and MORE DURABLE than just the lure of big money.

~There are going to be times when you'll get on each others nerves and you'll wonder just why the heck you are living out of a suitcase in Seoul, South Korea; Istanbul, Turkey; Perth, Australia; or even Winnemucca, Nevada, instead of at home with your wife, kids and dog.

Although the lure of consistently large profits is strong; the grind of constant road-trips tends to erode the "sex-appeal" of being part of a professional Precision-Shooting Team.

Now if you want to talk about doing all of that as a solo act, well...

TinhornGambler

I tend to agree that Team Play is very tricky, with many side issues.

However, I think of the Team Play concept as being more of a Darksider's Dream.  The play would be similar to MP's ~The "Dodging Bullets as a Darksider," PerryB's Darkside Stepladder strategy or Barstow's (Beat The Casino) "step ladder" play. (negative progression)

The Team Shooter's (shooting to seven out) would be at minimum Pass Line bets when shooting, with the Darkside Player making the big bets. There would be a couple of spotters who would jump in at certain times to chase the Don't Pass to avoid the table limit, should something go awry.  And on all other random shooters, the Don't Player is matched in play with the other Team Right bettors until the signal is given for the Darksider to go it alone, with a cold to choppy cycle or when a team shooter is in action.

I believe this process has several advantages over the Right Side concept.    Less pressure on the Team shooters to shoot accurately at unknown tables.
The Team shooters are at minimum when shooting, so less scrutiny by the suits.  The Don't Player is playing a normal betting progression, so less scrutiny on him.
With the right side play, you have to wait for the dice to pass around to your Team member, to make big bets. Which leads to the one reason - Normal Choppy to Cold conditions along with Team Shooter advantages increase the percentages of table wins, making the daily WIN goal a lot faster with less risk and detection.

Stevan

Ah, Team Play. Kenny Uston and the good old days of single deck blackjack. What a concept! Too bad Kenny almost single handily initiated the use of multi-deck shoes. Long Live Kenny Uston, “Father of Modern Day Blackjack”.

Do I believe there are dice influencing teams out there? Probably, yes. Are they making money? I think yes. Could I spot a team? I doubt it. If they are smart enough to put together a team and if they are smart enough to make money, then they are probably smart enough to fly under the radar. Could I play on a team? Not a chance. Do I think your average Joe DiceSetter can play on a team? No. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can go point seven on any given day.

I think team play involves a level of performance that not many people can obtain. Not only would you have the pressure of playing with a joint bankroll (i.e. Other Peoples Money), you would have to contend with playing on a much more consistent basis than Joe DiceSetter ever thought about playing. If it’s not fun, you still can’t run. Additionally, in the absence of “hard” data and in the presence of much anecdotal data, I think it would be difficult if not impossible to determine “risk of ruin”, “time to double a bankroll”, “optimum bet size”, etc.

I also think that team play involves a level of trust that not many people can muster. Think about it for a minute. To make serious money, you would need a serious bankroll and I’m not talking about a session bankroll of ten times your base bet. While that may work for some, if you want to really decrease the risk of losing your bankroll, you would probably want fifty times your base bet and then on top of that you would want multiple bankrolls, say what, about 10 or 15 or even 20. Because the WORST thing that can happen to a gambler (or even a wall street investor) is to go bankrupt.

Let’s say you want to play at $10 tables and your base bets equal pass line plus double odds and you place the 6 and 8 for $12 each. Fifty times $54 is $2,700. Then you want 10 or 15 or 20 of those so your total bankroll goes from $27,000 to $54,000. So let’s say you can find three people (counting you, a four person team) with $6,750 to $13, 500 each to “invest” in dice influencing. On top of your portion of the bankroll, you need living expenses such as food, lodging, gas, laundry, cell phone, etc and what would that add onto your minimum required contribution? You would almost have to be wealthy just to take part in this endeavor. And if you’re wealthy, why do you need to gamble to make money? The above scenario involves doing playing full time and not just a weekend warrior deal like Irish is talking about.

And then there is the little matter of “trust”. I don’t think that the band of dice influencers would really employ an attorney to draw up incorporation papers and I don’t think many people would swear a blood oath, either. And if they did swear such an oath, how many of them do you think would really honor it? One of the problems is that when money is involved, lots of people sort of lose their memory, integrity and honor.

So, obviously, full time play would involve some really strict measures and high levels of proficiency and trust. Not many people would be willing to do all this although evidently, there are a few out there. I don’t think that the real dice setting teams are creating much of a problem for us as dice setters. It is the “wannabes” that may create problems for us. You know, the guys that read the material, have probably read some of Uston’s books, threw the dice a few times in the living room and then maybe even went to a seminar. You know the type. There is usually at least one at every seminar you go to. They throw out a lot of “what if” type questions but never really seem to get on track when it comes to throwing the dice. Many of these guys have also tried to count cards, usually to some degree of failure. And they think that now they have found the key to the mint. They tell their brother-in-law, their buddy on the assembly line next to them at work and poof, they have a team. Now these guys go out undercapitalized, under practiced and without any real coherent plan and end up doing more damage to all dice setters than the smart teams ever thought about doing.

So while I believe that there are some real dice setting teams out there, I don’t believe they are going to hurt us with their play. We’re more likely to be zapped because of Joe DiceSetter trying to set up a team to make next months’ rent payment.

Like they say, “If it dice setting was easy, then everyone would be doing it”.

Mad Professor

Those are all good points.

The one thing that professional Teams do, is to try to eliminate the casinos focus on the skilled shooter. Since he's only betting for relatively small action in BIG gaming houses, he is considered a very small fish (and may not even be rated by them).

When the Big Player steps up to a HOT table with a drink in one hand and purple, orange and grey chips in the other, they are used to situations like that, because they happen all the time in the large-bet tolerant casinos.

In this case, they are looking at it as though the Big Player got "lucky" by being in the right place at the right time. The casinos understand that they are in the gambling-business, and as such, players sometimes win.

As long as the pro Team don't hit the same place too often with the same shooter/big player combo, they can profitably stay in business. That is why they'll be in LV one weekend, then A/C the next, then on to Foxwoods or Lake Tahoe, before flying off to Puerto Rico, Saint Marten and the Bahamas. Following that, you'll see them in Monte Carlo (Monaco), Australia, Turkey, Egypt, Korea, and South Africa before finally returning to LV to start the circuit all over again.

Jeffrey47

As always, MP has done a great service, here providing tremendous insight into the professional-level activities engaged in by successful precision-shooting teams. And both MP and Heavy have identified some issues that particularly pertain, I think, to most of us. Yet, some interesting ideas for possible methodologies have been introduced for any of us considering team play, as Irish contemplated.

I can only add a few thoughts from personal experience, having dabbled a bit with partner-style play.

So far, the results of partnering up have not provided as good a return on time and investment as my results with solo play. Foremost in my mind is this: As a "developing" precision shooter, the consistency of my skill is not where it needs to be to do much more than, well -- continue to develop.

Although it's been a year or so, the prime theme I see in experience and in everyone's posts of trip reports, and general discussion as well, is that there is a huge difference in the consistent-skill acquisition curve between those of us constrained to occasional in-casino tests and those with more opportunity for repeated live-play verification of our practice results. There is just too much opportunity to get rusty between casino visits. I just haven't had the opportunity to play routinely enough and consequently, haven't stayed as sharp between visits as would be required to keep the learning curve in a consistently upward direction.

So for me, Irish's query regarding team play begs so many other issues, as I think it would for most here. I simply hesitate to commit too much time to the team play concept until my solo play becomes more settled. And once it does, well, as MP suggests, I don't know how attractive team play would really be at that juncture anyway.

Here's the main example of my concern, derived from actual team-type play experience (best characterized only as "dry-run" play with my future teammate, as we have not yet pooled bankroll, though we contemplate doing so IF and WHEN circumstances suggest it will be beneficial for BOTH of us):

In my solo play, I always keep a very cautious eye on my own "that-moment" apparent skill level, and whenever I don't feel comfortable for any reason, usually because the numbers aren't coming or because my toss just isn't right, I take an immediate breather to evaluate, relax, think about what's happening, and try again when I feel more confident, or after tuning up in the room on the portable rig. In short, I usually play very short sessions, protecting bankroll and confidence. THAT approach has proven difficult to execute with a team member in tow.

Now this problem may be unique to my particular partnership. My would-be partner plays every day and thus has many, many times the live play hours than I do, and he is always fine with staying the course at the table, no matter what his toss is up to, or mine. So again, the issue of consistent, frequent in-casino play rears its head. Like me, my partner has been at this only about a year, but he has developed so much further due to the frequency of live sessions, that his tolerance for weathering the storms of inconsistency when his skill is hiding is far greater than mine. If I'm in casinoville for only three days, I don't feel I have that "luxury."

Moreover, I'm not sure that a rope-a-dope mentality of long-term play really comports with an ideal precision-shooting approach to the game. Successes have always (only) come when I've been ever vigilant about bailing out on the game when things aren't going well, and returning to play a little later.

So . . . I think a very important component to developing successful team play FOR DEVELOPING SHOOTERS is a willingness and ability to carefully observe one's own and the partners' apparent skill level at a given moment, and factor that into the team-play equation. The way I see it, a partner represents a potential land mine for combined over betting and misplaced collective confidence. Not easy problems to solve, especially when operating on the "short leash" of a weekend casino visit after a two-month or longer lay off.