
How To Get It, and How To Keep It Your
WinLoss Ratio Revisited I
continue to receive quite a bit of email regarding ways to properly gauge WinLoss
ratios. Though
we’ve discussed them in a few articles (including an indepth look at this critically
important subject in the fourpart Can’t Win For Losing series), many players
continue to struggle with the juggling act of balancing their number of losing sessions
versus an adequate number of offsetting winning ones. A
disturbing example… Ø
If
8outof10 of your sessions see you walking away with an average profit of $50, but the
other 2outof10 see you hitting a session LossLimit of $200 each; then despite your
80%/20% Win:Loss ratio, you are still only breaking even. Though
breakeven in a casino context (over an extended number of sessions) is a laudable
thing for most gamblers, for the advantageplayer, “breakeven” is
not quite what we are looking for. LossLimits
are so closely tied to your overall PrecisionShooting profitability, and your Win:Loss
ratio is so closely linked to your overall success as an advantageplayer; that neither of
them can be viewed in total isolation from the other. When
Setting A Win/Loss Goal You Have To Be Careful As
far as setting a goal of winning sessionstolosing sessions goal is concerned; you have
to be careful that you don't have your eye on one thing (your "battingaverage"
winloss ratio), and end up losing sight of your netwinnings (in real and actual
dollars). It’s important that the
skilled PrecisionShooter has their eye on the right prize. Ø
It’s
important to know HOW MANY sessions you get ahead of your buyin, and how
many sessions you fall behind right from the outset. Ø
It’s
also important to know HOW MUCH you usually get ahead of your buyin during the winning
sessions. You can measure that in dollars or
as a percentage…the important thing is that you figure out how far, on average, you
usually get ahead during any given session. Ø
It’s
equally important to know HOW OFTEN you are able to stage a comeback when you fall behind
in your session. Ø
You
also have to know how often you squander the lead you had, and let the profit slip back
into the minus column. Ø
Though
it’s nice to be able to say that you have an 80% sessionwin rate, it’s much
more important to factor in what your netprofit actually is. Again, it does you no good to have a high W:L
ratio, but still be a netloser. Ø
For
several years I had an unbelievably high winratio, but I found that I was too sharply
focused on maintaining that number instead of giving myself slightly more bettinglatitude
(and garnering even more profit from slightly fewer wins).
Though my netprofit was still high at that point, it was stalled out and
wasn’t growing at any discernable rate. Ø
When
I started giving my diceshooting talents broader leeway (through a wider bettingrange
and heavier weightwagering) on the currently dominating actionnumbers (which had for YEARS
been screaming out for more wagering attention); my netprofits actually shot up
astronomically even though my winningsession ratio dropped by a few percentage points. For details on that, I would invite you to have a
look at my ongoing twelvepart How To Get THERE From HERE series. The results may surprise you, but the path I took
shouldn’t. Ø
The
point is that you have to keep your eye on the overall NETprofitability of ANYTHING that
catches your PrecisionShooting attention, and decide if it can contribute to your
revenuegenerating efforts or whether it is a growth limiter. If
one more example isn’t too much overkill, indulge me for another moment… Ø
If
you have a persession WinGoal of let's say $100, and a LossLimit of let's say $500;
then with a wintoloss ratio of 8 winning sessions for every 2 losing sessions (an 8:2
ratio) you'll STILL be losing money most of the time ($800 in winnings versus $1000
in losses). Ø
I
used those two WinGoal and LossLimit figures because they seem to be the most popular
with a lot of avid gamblers. With those two
benchmarks comes a situation where you are winning 80% of the time, yet like I said, you
are STILL going to be losing money. Ø
If
you set your WinGoals satisfying low (so that you’ll reach them more often and be
able to leave the casino with a profit more frequently); then your LossLimit also has to
be set conservatively low. Ø
To
strike a proper balance (and be able to show an overall netprofit for your efforts), you
first have to look at how often you get to your WinGoal.
For example, if you usually hit the $75 profitpoint in let’s say 70%
of your sessions, then you have to factor it in when you are figuring out how much of a
LossLimit you’ll allow yourself. Let’s
do some simple math… Ø
If
7outof10 sessions see you get to an average $75 lockedin profitmark, then you simply
multiply that amount by the average number of sessions when you’ll hit it. In this case you’ll hit $75 during
7outof10 sessions (so we multiply $75 times 7 sessions) which comes to approximately
$525 in grosswinnings. That
figure helps us structure our LossLimit. Ø
We
know we have 3outof10 sessions where we fail to reach profitability. Ø
Now
we have to ask ourselves how much netprofitability we want to RETAIN, versus how
much we are willing to lose in so far as setting a reasonable LossLimit is concerned. Ø
The
reason that question is so important is because it determines our overall
netprofitability. As you’ve
seen, it does you no good if you win 90%+ of your sessions, but still aren’t able to
show a netprofit for all your effort. Ø
The
task of the advantageplayer is to GET a profit, and then structure his gameplan
(or at least the WinGoal and LossLimit portion of his gameplan) in order to KEEP
that profit. Your LossLimit is the chief
determining factor in that equation. Ø
So,
we look at those 3outof10 losing sessions to determine how much we’ll allow
ourselves to lose before walking away with an overall netprofit from ALL of our sessions
combined. Ø
Though
we always want to give ourselves a fair chance to win…if we dig too deep of a hole
during our losing sessions, then our winning sessions have to be all that much bigger just
to offset our losses, let alone start showing a netprofit. Ø
In
this example, knowing that 7outof10 winning sessions spin off about $525 in revenue, we
have to look at the three remaining losingsessions to come up with a tolerable
LossLimit. Ø
Let’s
say that we decide a $150 LossLimit for any given session is enough to give our
PrecisionShooting a fair chance to redeem itself, but not too big of a hole
that our winning sessions can’t dig us out of it. Ø
In
that model, the three losing sessions (with a $150 LL for each one) sees a $450 deficit,
but our 7outof10 winning session revenue of $525 is enough to bail our ass out and
still leave us with an overall profit of $75. Ø
When
you see all of your effort go into netting just a $75 profit, it’s often enough to
make many players see the need for tightening their LossLimit by quite a bit. In other words, they want to be working to KEEP
the profit that their winningsessions make, instead of working to fill in the hole that
their losing sessions dig. Ø
It’s
very much like a balancing act. On one hand
you want to play and you want to win. You
want to give yourself a fair opportunity to make some money, yet you understand that you
can’t allow too many or too big of those losses since that would put you in an
overall losing position. Ø
You
also know that your diceshooting abilities are exploitable when they are zonedin, and
therefore it’s only reasonable to lockin some of that profit to offset the times
when your shooting isn’t quite up to par. Ø
You
have to temper your LossLimits (when your shooting isn’t so wonderful) with enough
opportunity to let your PrecisionShooting efforts show their true capability when they
are. If you limit your betting by too tight of a range, then the full power of your
dicesetting efforts will not be afforded their full worth and value (and therefore you
won’t be capturing the full profit that your good shooting efforts confer). Ø
Equally,
if your LossLimits are too loose, then your diceshooting will have to be more
extraordinary, more often just to maintain your breakeven status (let alone get
to any degree of reliable profitability). As
I mentioned, we explored this entire subject, and how to deal with it in my fourpart Can't Win
For Losing series, and its importance obviously hasn’t faded. Profitable
Outcomes Bear A Striking Resemblance to Smart Inputs If
you look at the money that your fairtogood sessions generally make, and figure out how
many of those you have versus how many losing sessions you encounter; then you’ll be
able to calculate the average highpoint of where your refusetolosebackonedollarbelowthispoint
WinGoal should be lockedin at, and where your allowable LossLimits (that will still
show an overall profit when considered in relation to ALL of your sessions)
should be set at. You
don’t want to be in the unenviable position where you are winning 80%+ of your
sessions, yet still showing an overall deficit. Your
WinGoal, your LossLimit and your WintoLoss ratio determines all of that. You have to plug in your own numbers to
determine what is right for you. Ø
Your
current diceshooting results should shape your gameplan parameters (WG, LL, and W:L
ratio) in order to give you an overall profit NOW. Ø
As
your skillset improves, you can raise your lockedin WinGoal, tighten (or loosen) your
LossLimit as appropriate, and reappraise your WintoLoss ratio to find any unseen
profit potential within that latitude. Why
PrecisionShooting Is A ThinkingMan’s Game As
a craps player, it’s easy to let someone else do your thinking for you.
Ø
If
the book says that Passline bets backed with FullOdds, and two Comebets with Full Odds
is not only the best way to play, but it’s really the ONLY way to play…then it
must be so. Of course those same authors
either have never even heard of dicesetting or have discarded the entire concept out of
hand.
Ø
If
someone says a 20% wingoal and a 50% LossLimit is the way to go…then we can blindly
accept that; but in doing so, we unwittingly consent to the need of hitting our wingoal
at least twoandahalf times as often just to offset every single losing
session…JUST TO BREAK EVEN. When
you look at any advice, including mine, you have to put it in the proper
perspective, and you actually have to think about it. If
you blindly accept advice (no matter how well intentioned it is) without knowing WHY it
should work, or WHAT it’s biggest risks are, or HOW it will affect YOUR
game…then you are accepting recommendations without knowing if they are pertinent to
your circumstances at all. Though
it may work wondrous miracles for others, you may be unwilling or unable to make all of
the other necessary changes to your game that would put that same wellfounded
advice to full and effective use. Therefore,
in falling short of expectation, your game may fare even worse than it was before
you applied the recommendations. In
a nutshell…if someone tells you that the only way to make big money at this game is
to Placebet the 4, and then parlay all of your winnings on each subsequent Boxnumber
until you reach (and hit) the 10…you can think about it, but as a responsible and
mature advantageplayer, you have to think about how often you’ve been able to
accomplish that particular feat (in that correct order) in the last couple of months. If
it’s applicable to you…then by all means use it. If
you want to make it applicable to your current gameplan…then make the
necessary skillset (and not hopeset) changes to make it so. If
it’s not applicable…then don’t blindly use it in the HOPE that it
might someday bear profitable fruit. Think
about any advice or any contemplated changes, and consider how effective they will be at
your current skilllevel. As your
PrecisionShooting or PrecisionBetting skills improve, you can integrate and incorporate
the ones that are most effective, and eliminate the ones that aren’t. That’s
what advantageplay is all about. If
you THINK about where the lion’s share of your profit comes from, and where
the bulk of your losses go to…your decisions, your bet choices, your Win Goals, your
LossLimits and all the decisions surrounding them should come a little easier (and the
profit should flow a little faster) if you do. If
you need all of that summarized in a one line bumpersticker format: GET
the profit…KEEP the profit…Don’t WASTE the profit. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

