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How
To Get THERE from HERE
Part V WHAT
I Do
WHY I Do It
HOW I Do It The
objective of this series is simple: To
elevate your game to the next level, and to accelerate the profitability, without
increasing your risk. The
method for realizing that objective it is equally simple: Ill
tell you What, Why, When and How a professional Precision-Shooter makes consistent money
on a day-in, day-out basis...
Then
you can decide if my route suits your purposes, or whether youd prefer to follow a
different, but equally valid path. Like
Ive said many times; there are numerous ways to make steady money off of the casino
tables, but I can only tell you about the ways that work for me. Obviously my ways arent the ONLY ways, but
theyre the only ones that work steadily enough, and dependably enough, and PROFITABLY
enough for me. This
series, and in fact, all of my articles here on Irishsetter's excellent website for that
matter, provide the WHAT I Do
WHY I Do It
HOW I Do It
approach to Precision-Shooting. Like I just mentioned, there are other professional
craps players out there, and some of their playing and betting methods contrast starkly to
mine
if and when any of them decide to publish their tactics, strategies, and
methodologies
it will make for an interesting comparison. Until then
Lets
continue to map out a safe, but expeditious route for you to get from HERE to THERE. Achievable
Milestones
There
have been countless milestones that Ive reached with my Precision-Shooting.
Ø
Some
were goals that I had previously set for myself, and when I reached them, it provided a
sense of accomplishment.
Ø
Some
of them were turning points where my game changed to such a significant degree that it
catapulted me way past the next level, into the one beyond that.
Ø
Some
of those milestones were much more subtle but nonetheless important to my game.
Ø
A
few of them were only recognized AFTER I achieved them, and only then did I
suddenly realize their significance. I
mention all of this to illustrate the importance of setting achievable milestones. While
major lifestyle changes might be your long-term, big-picture Precision-Shooting objective;
youll find it easier to accomplish all of that if you break the ultimate goal down
into individual components; and then set reasonably accomplishable tasks and
improvement-targets in order to achieve them. That
way, your small but numerous accomplishments quickly add up to sustainable, overall
success...and your long-term objectives draw ever nearer to certainty. In
setting easy-to-reach targets, you keep your forward progress going
forward. A sense of steady accomplishment does wonders for
not only your mental well-being and positive can-do attitude, but it doesnt
hurt your bankroll none too much either. By
avoiding that my game is stalled-out and going nowhere feeling, those
steadily reached mile-markers along the dicesetting highway help to show that you are
indeed making progress, no matter how similar the terrain always seems to look. Once youve dialed-in your shooting, most of
your Practice Sessions SHOULD start to look the same! It is the repetitive nature of practice and
refinement which permits you to bring steady reliability to the real world tables, time
and time and time again. THAT
is what consistent profitability is all about. Thats
how its done, and thats how we get there. Its
in the setting (and the reaching) of those small, incremental improvements to our current
skill-set that brings the steadiest and most consistently rewarding results. Yes, we will still have those eureka!
breakthrough moments when everything just seems to come together and suddenly everything
makes sense; but please understand that if youve executed your plan properly, and
you can maintain that success; then those eureka moments have mostly been accomplished by
design and not by accident. Overnight
success
with Precision-Shooting usually takes many years of hard work, determination, commitment
and dedication. Where
Is This Applicable?
I
wont list the hundreds of places where this incremental-step approach can be applied
to your dicesetting efforts, but Ill list a few.
Ø
Look
to increase your on-axis percentage by one fraction point at a time. To make it easier, make sure that the sampling
size for the number of rolls that you are looking at isnt too large. For example, you could assess the most recent 360
practice tosses, instead of using the last 1080. From
there, you can use a forward-rolling, and always current 360-toss-average to gauge your
on-axis progress. That gives you actionable
feedback of your current skill-set, and provides a steady-cam, real-time
video-feed of your progress from here on out, instead of a one-time out-of-date
snapshot.
Ø
Similarly,
your Point-cycle SRR can be measured using a like-sized sampling, especially if you have
been tweaking your throw-mechanics lately. Again,
doing so doesnt dilute your current skills with ancient history (with what you were
achieving several thousand rolls ago). Rather,
it shows you where youve been, where you are now, and where you can go as to your
next Point-cycle SRR fractional milestone.
Ø
The
more up-to-date your skill-assessment is; the better youll be able to measure your
progress. Where your shooting is at NOW is where the profit-opportunities are also at NOW. We dont ignore the past
we just
dont dwell on it.
Ø
Chart
the frequency of Inside Numbers that you throw on average during each practice hand. One of the ways that a quick pre-casino warm-up
will tell me how good I can expect to do during the first hand of the first session for
the day, is to count the number of Inside Number hits that I get before 7ing-Out. If its 12 or higher, then Im good to
go. If its 10 or lower, then perhaps
the real-world table should wait until Im a little more warmed-up. You can do the same thing.
Ø
Set
achievable goals and then stick to them as your safe-to-bet/prudent-to-play
measure. Some people snicker at this concept,
but usually end up playing at their own peril (yet they never have quite figured out just
why they cant seem to get anywhere with their overall game-profitability).
Ø
You
can apply those same ideas to your Practice Sessions as well. Pick up the dice and start throwing tosses just
like you would in the casino. Without being
overly analytical, see what the dice are indicating to you, and make air-bets
that reflect the results you are getting. See
where it takes you. By doing so, you learn to
clue in faster and become more intuitive as to taking advantage of what is happening right
now in front of you on the table. This instant-feedback-from-current-bet-choices
exercise helps you look at your skill-set from an always-fresh perspective, which in turn
produces an increased ability to seize opportunities when they present themselves to you
in a real-world casino situation.
Ø
If
your current roll-averages are diluted with the results you were getting when you were
still developing and tweaking all the various aspects of your toss (set, grip, motion,
release, backspin, trajectory, target, roll-out, posture, table-orientation, etc.); then
your current on-axis, SRR, and CoR numbers are tainted and contaminated by illegitimate,
or at least old, out-of-date and corrupted data.
Ø
Take
some of your freshest practice-roll data, and apply a couple of different betting-methods
against them. Often times, a player will
discover that there is money to be made, even on the short-lasting rolls if a Steep
Regression was employed; or you may find that your average roll-length (as measured from
new PL-Point to 7-Out) holds great promise if you only use the first four or five tosses
as profit-collectors, and then turn your bets off until you get past a certain
(your usual) roll-ending hump. Your roll-data
often holds a treasure-trove of wealth-opportunities just waiting to be mined. It is up to you to dig and sift for them.
Ø
The
idea is to look at the dice-results you are currently getting, but from a totally
different point of view. That new vista often
uncovers hidden profit-potential. If you
permit yourself a wide-enough view of your current Precision-Shooting talents; youll
likely see a few prospects of hereinbefore unrealized revenues that had been hiding in
plain sight.
Ø
Take
a fresh look at what you think your Signature Numbers are.
Again, use a smaller sampling, like your most recent 108 tosses, to see how
much variance they are showing against the normally expected frequency chart.
Ø
The
more in-tune you are to your CURRENT skill-level, the more able youll be to
take advantage of it when you are shooting for real in the casino. If we can expect to see fifteen 6s and
8s each in that stream of rolls, but you manage to steadily produce two or three or
four more than the frequency chart indicates; then your CURRENT betting in the casino
should reflect that edge. The bigger your
variance is over normal, the greater your opportunity for profit is in the casino.
Ø
On
the other hand, the numbers that you THOUGHT were your S-Ns, may turn out to
be ancient cave drawings that were linked to long-abandoned grips, sets and toss-mechanics
that you used to use back in the Paleozoic Period of your dicesetting evolution.
Ø
Likewise,
if the same frequency chart indicates that you arent throwing as many Horn Numbers
as you thought you were; then your real-world betting cant reflect the fact that you
HOPE you could. Your SKILL (and not
your HOPE) should dictate your betting.
Ø
If
discipline is your biggest enemy, then make some efforts that are outside of the ordinary. Again, were talking about small, incremental
steps that lead to overall achievement.
o
Perhaps
you could use a TINY buy-in with the rest of your dough stowed safely away; or,
o
The
total elimination
for one session only, of ALL Prop-bets; or,
o
A
short-span time-limit where you will leave the table at a certain time, no matter what.
o
If
you can successfully use any discipline-building exercises for just ONE single,
solitary session, and end up feeling good about the fact that you stuck to a
higher level of self-control just once;
then it gives you the knowledge and the power to do it again and again if you so choose. Like
I said, the list of possible mini-goals is endless, as are the reduced loss-probabilities
and increased profit-possibilities that come with them.
The
important thing is that you give yourself a chance to actually SEE the steady
progress you are making.
Ø
The
smaller your steps, the easier your improvement is to chart.
Ø
Fractional
increases in your On-Axis percentages, or your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio, or your Point-Cycle
roll-length, etc.; provide some of those achievable milestones that are directly
convertible into profit.
Ø
The
more you can see consistent improvement; the steadier and more resolute your discipline
will become. The stronger your discipline;
the more likely you are to stay away from last-ditch desperado moves that usually precede
an unrestrained bankroll-meltdown. Setting
and achieving incrementally-reasonable goals and milestones allow you to validate your
methods and reconfirms the appropriateness of your route for getting from HERE to THERE. The
Card-Counter Approach
More
and more, I've adopted some of the fundamental aspects of card-counting BETTING-strategies
for my own hands at the craps table...and it's worked out quite well. I
talked about this a bit when Irishsetter brought the subject up on his Discussion Forum, and it
clearly merits even further examination. If
you take the fundamental idea that a skilled card-counter raises his bet-spread
when the count is high (the undealt remainder of the deck is rich in high cards),
and apply it to your own Precision-Shooting advantage; then it makes sense for the skilled
dicesetter to increase his
bet-amounts and/or his betting-range when his roll-count (SRR), Box-number hits
or any other actionable indicators of CURRENT skill-level shows a
discernable advantage over the house. Equally,
when the "count" is negative, and his throwing-skills are looking suspiciously random;
then it is time to cut those bet-levels and bet-spreads back to their absolute
minimum; or better still, take a break from the action. In
each case, this betting-approach is similar to those used by professional card-counters.
ü
You
INCREASE your bets when the advantage is in your favor.
ü
You
REALLY pump up the volume when your skill-level and focus are especially dialed-in.
ü
You
DECREASE or eliminate your bets when it isnt happening. That
means if your shooting isnt up to par; then your bet-levels as well as the range of
bets that you are making, is cut back to its lowest possible point or you back away
from the game completely. On
the other hand, when your shooting is grooved-in; then your skill-level demands that you
take proper advantage of it. You already know
how difficult it is to gain an edge over the casino; so when that edge is apparent, it
behooves you to reap the benefits. A
Player-Advantage Does Not Always Equate to Player-PROFIT
Now,
having said all of that; let me quickly add some qualifying criteria.
I
have an over-riding concern about the idea behind "betting to your advantage",
and that is that the relative "advantage" that a player THINKS he has,
may in fact NOT ALWAYS BE convertible into profit; and therefore a larger bet-level or
bet-spread results in higher-volatility
and risk, but often WITHOUT the anticipated dividend. We
took a preliminary look at this phenomenon in How To Get It, and
How To Keep It Part VI,
where two players each had a validated 20% edge over the house through their various
dicesetting methods, yet one was spinning his wheels by essentially breaking-even despite
that huge edge; while the other player was profiting handsomely
yet both were
specifically and ONLY betting on their apparent advantage over the house. That
brings us squarely back to the "I have a proven 20% advantage over the house, but
I'm still only breaking-even" phenomenon. Irishsetter
related an example where the Precision-Shooters first couple of hands are decent (in the
5-12 roll range), and the dice are looking good during all aspects of their release,
flight, touch down and final outcome (AND the player is SUFFICIENTLY
bankrolled using nearly the same risk-of-ruin rules that a professional
card-counter would use). I agree that that is
PRECISELY the proper time when a player SHOULD be making bets of an enhanced value in
order to take profitable advantage of his CURRENTLY demonstrated skills. Yet
in many cases, a player will fail to pull the trigger on the opportunity, and that
particular prospect for increased profit passes on by. Why? In
some cases its because they are sticking to a betting-regimen that others have
recommended, but is wholly inadequate to take advantage of this particular players edge
over the house. Or worse yet, he has in fact
tailored his bets to properly suit the edge he has worked so hard to develop;
unfortunately he cant bring himself to make the right bets at the appropriate time
without raising his blood-pressure and unsettling with his game-focus At
other times that same player will try to force the issue by betting with increased bravado
without having the proper foundation of CURRENT skill showing itself with any level of
conviction at the point of wagering. That too
is costly, in the sense that he is gambling with his money just as a random-roller does;
instead of deploying it when, and ONLY WHEN he clearly has a currently validated
right now advantage. In
all of those cases, player-advantage does not always equate to player-PROFIT. Betting
In Proportion to Your Advantage
In
the coming months (and probably years), youre going to be reading a lot about
maximizing your Precision-Shooting advantage by betting in a proportion that reflects your
true edge over the house. If this once again
sounds strangely reminiscent of card-counting advantageplay concepts, you are not
mistaken. While
card-counters recognize that when the count is high, they have an advantage; they never
know when that advantage will show itself during the course of a session. For
proficient dicesetters it is just the opposite. They
know that when the dice are in their hands, they usually hold a distinct advantage. Now whether or not theyll be able to turn
that advantage into a net-profit on THIS hand is the yet-to-be-determined factor. So
how do we even begin to wrap our minds around this whole bet in proportion to
your advantage concept? You
can start by betting in proportion to what your Signature Numbers and your current on-axis
dice-set percentages indicate will be the most likely outcomes. If you also know (as a percentage) how often you
will end up with one of the four primary-faces (that you initially set the dice on before
you threw them); then you will also know how much additional betting-weight can
safely be placed on those four possible outcomes too. Well
be exploring this concept in much greater detail in upcoming articles, but for now let me
give you an example. Lets
say that you are using the V-2 set, and your Signature Numbers with that set indicate an
"even-spread" of box-number outcomes (where the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, & 10 are
showing up with equal distribution as they should with that particular set); then
obviously it makes sense to bet MORE on the Place-bets which will give you a higher
payout. Now
all of that assumes that each of those Box-numbers ARE hitting with equal ferocity,
and you are looking at it strictly from an advantage-play situation. For most players, the
"confusion" comes from bet-decisions that are based on old-wives tales and
superstitions or "I always bet more on the 4 and 10 because they pay more...but
they never seem to come in for me" tainted-logic standpoint. The
whole premise behind Precision-Shooting or at least Precision-BETTING (used in
conjunction with your capable dicesetting); is that you bet on the numbers that you throw
the most of, and you adjust your bets so that they reflect the most likely routes to
consistent profit. If that means betting on the Outside Numbers (4 and 10, then 5 and 9)
in a heavier weighting than you bet on the 6 and 8 because they all have the same hit
frequency (as verified by your own Precision-Shooting V-2 roll-tracking); then that is
DEFINITELY where the lion's share of your money will be made. As
I mentioned, we will be looking at this concept much more closely in the near-term, but I
wanted to give you a small taste of it now. A
number of other players are doing parallel studies on the same subject, so it should be
interesting to see how we can profitably integrate all of these findings into our future
game plans. Remember
that we are determining the best and safest way to get from HERE
(where your current skill-set profit-making is right now) to THERE
(the place where your current skill-set profit-making SHOULD BE). Loss-Limits
Are MORE Critical for Advantage-Players Than Random-Rollers On
the surface, that statement may sound ridiculous...but its not. Many
players reason that if you have a small but discernable advantage over the casino; then
you SHOULD be walking away with a hefty profit from almost every session. That
in fact is a complete and utter fallacy. Even
when you have a measurable advantage over the house; skew, volatility, and kurtosis will
invariably ensure that youll also have just enough losing sessions to keep you from
believing that you too can walk on water. That
is the reason that most proficient blackjack card-counters were (and are) never able to
make consistent money (or BIG money) even though they play with a significant advantage
over the casino. Yes,
some players can and DO make hefty profits from their dicesetting (or their
card-counting), but there are many more who play with an advantage (and sometimes a HUGE
advantage at that), yet they DO NOT make more than a couple of bucks to show for all of
their efforts. Why
is that? By
holding onto the fact that they HAVE an OVERALL advantage; it keeps them in
many sessions where the losses just keep coming and coming and coming. While the fact remains that they DO
have an overall Precision-Shooting advantage, occasionally in some sessions,
theyll often find that they just cant seem to get anything going. It is during those sessions when overall
profitability, and not overall advantage is determined. Your
LOSING sessions determine how many WINNING sessions youll need to bail out the
losing ones. In
simple terms:
Ø
Your
losing sessions determine just how big the winning ones will have to be just to get you
back to the break-even point.
Ø
Your
losing sessions determine just how much net-profit youll be able to extract from
this game on an overall basis.
Ø
Your
losing sessions determine your destiny MORE than your winning ones do. For
example:
Ø
If
you have one mega-hand each month that spins off a $10,000 profit, but all the other
losing ones consume $12,000 of your bankroll just to get there, you are STILL turning in a
net-loss. Oh sure, youre $10k win will
make for good reading and the stuff that legends are built on, yet youll still have
to keep your daytime job selling Size 6 shoes to women with Size 12 feet (and egos). How
does that happen? Well
like I said, even though you are an advantage-player
you dont always
have the advantage.
Ø
Im
not just talking about any of the bets that you decide to make on random-rollers, although
they too definitely figure into your overall earnings-equation.
Ø
Im
not only talking about bets you make on yourself that are overall net-losers for you,
although those too play a critical role in determining the flow of your overall
revenue-stream.
Ø
Instead,
Im talking about the fact that sometimes your shooting will be for shit, and those
are the times (and the losses) which will determine just how good (net-profitable) you
have to be during your next session (and probably the session after that and the next one
after that as well) to be able to fill in the hole that you dug for yourself on this
particular occasion. If
your Precision-Shooting isnt working during any given session, and you find yourself
in a hole
STOP DIGGING.
Having Said All
of That
And
acknowledging that there are some similarities between the way we approach
our respective games
you have to remember that there are also some huge differences
between pro-Blackjack players and pro-Craps players.
Ø
The
professional card-counter watches the cards, while the professional
Precision-Shooter actually has to throw the dice.
Ø
The
cards are shuffled and delivered to the card-counter (without much player intervention);
while the Precision-Shooter has to deliver his own good outcomes without any outside
assistance. That
brings us around to the whole bet-sizing-and-money-anxiety-tied-to-shooting-performance
question again. The
whole concept of betting big when you have an advantage makes a lot of sense, and in
its most elemental form, that is what savvy dicesetters do. However, there is a certain psychological
competence as well as physical skill involved in successful Precision-Shooting.
Ø
If
a card-counter is nervous, it doesnt affect the way the cards are shuffled or dealt.
Ø
If
a much-needed paint (a 10-value face card) or an Ace is coming his way; it
doesnt matter if his heart rate is 250 over 120, or if he is raining perspiration
all over the felt and his hands are wetter than a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit-edition
photo-shoot; the same card that left the shoe or the deck will still be the same one that
is delivered to him regardless of how nervous or excited, jumpy or animated he is. He just has to sit there and look at the cards as
they are dealt. His anxiety wont affect
the flight of the card to his position; and even if it did, it would still be the same
card no matter what. On
the other hand
Ø
The
Precision-Shooter is the one who has to deliver the good results before he
can receive the good profit.
Ø
It
is up to him to perform well
not the cards remaining in the shoe or the dealers
shuffle-point interlacing.
Ø
No
one else is going to do it for him, unless hes riding on another talented
dice-shooters coattails. He has to throw them
properly and get the correct outcomes that he has wagered on BEFORE he gets to
collect a cent. That
psychological-competence and physical-skill difference is important to
understand and deal with, not only from a competent to let your
throwing-skills and your betting-methods stand trial at a craps table point
of view, but also for that entire bet-sizing and money-anxiety tied to
shooting-performance concern. For
that reason, I want to revisit something we discussed in How To
Get THERE From HERE Part Four: I
wrote: If
I HAVE TO play at a $100 table, then Ill start out with less of a spread on my bets.
Although my shooting is already dialed-in (otherwise I shouldn't and wouldn't be at
the $100 table); I'll still only have my PL w/2x-Odds, and 6 and 8 Place-bets in action.
I'll also be up on the Hard 4 & 10 for $5 or $10 each. If I hit the 5 or
9, then Ill Place-bet them as well. If I roll the 4 or 10, it might actually
take me TWO hits before I give myself permission to Place-bet them for the table-minimum
of $100 (plus the vig to buy it). That
may sound CHEAP, but it's actually GOOD money-management.
Although I have the bankroll to support playing at a $500 or even a $1000
min-bet table; it doesnt mean that Id be comfortable in doing so. While I understand the advantage-play concept of
betting into ANY shooting advantage that you know you have; it's also important to have,
as Heavy would say, the crap between your ears" under control as well. For me, that means generally avoiding the $100
tables save and except for extraordinary circumstances; and completely steering clear of
the rarer $500 layouts altogether. As
my shooting-skills evolve, my betting-skills continue to evolve right along with them,
though perhaps not as quickly. I
mention all of this again because when you are at a high-denomination table, or even at a
cheap table but you are betting at levels similar to what you would at the expensive
ones
then it is up to you to perform on cue as needed and required in order to bring
home the bacon. To
a large extent, that is my own reasoning for not using large ($500) base-bets and
maxed-Odds of lets say $1500 to $2500, even though I know how great my own shooting
is. As terrific as I am as a dicesetter, I
still have great reluctance to put more that $100 on the Passline at the start
of one of my hands. At
a bet-tolerant casino, I MIGHT work it up to that point and beyond IF my shooting
starts looking brilliant, but most times, Im satisfied with a $25 base-bet and
maxed-out Odds, plus all the initial high-dollar Place-bet action that I usually spread
around. Obviously all of this assumes that I
am in a bet-tolerant casino that doesnt have any qualms about fairly large bets on
the layout. Clearly at lower-rung casinos I
have to bet with my head, and not cause them undue concern about the level of action that
I have in play. Remember,
we are setting ACHIEVABLE objectives, goals and milestones that will not only give
us a sense of accomplishment, but also give us some steadier occurring profit. As each new milestone is achieved, we set our
sights on an even higher standard as well as a heightened level of consistency and
profitability.
Ø
When
your dice-shooting skills are exhibiting their full prowess; that is the time to bet it
up.
Ø
When
your dice-shooting skills are exhibiting their unreliability; that is the time to cut your
losses short.
Ø
However,
ALL of this has to be done under bet-levels and bet-spreads that are comfortable for YOU.
Ø
It
does you absolutely no good whatsoever if you are the worlds greatest shooter, but the
mere thought of having more than $22 on the layout causes your knees to go weak and your
stellar dice-throwing prowess to turn to crap. In
that case, betting in proportion to your advantage will actually bring about a level of
anxiety that will surely turn your good shooting to bad. Let
me put it another way
Ø
Yes,
you have to use your Precision-Shooting advantage to your benefit, and in most cases that
means betting more when you have the advantage, and less when you dont.
Ø
However,
it also means that you cant continually bet beyond your comfort-level without first
either re-adjusting your anxiety-level or surrendering some of your advantage over the
casino, in favor of increased mental comfort and peace of mind.
Ø
For
me to overcome that particular problem, it took a somewhat slow ratcheting up of my
bet-levels so that I gradually got desensitized to the heights that my base-bets were
reaching. Of course its easier to
accomplish that added sense of calm detachment when you are winning; but foolish and
senseless to continue doing it when you start to lose.
Ø
Ive
always found that a quick drop back to my next lowest comfort-level (until my shooting
consistency has been restored) is the best way to not only stem losses, but also to
restore winning, anxiety-free confidence. Folks,
lets remember, we are on a journey from our current profit-levels (HERE) to a
place of higher-earnings and equal or lower risk (THERE). So the route we take has to be carefully mapped
out to avoid not only the biggest potholes, obstacles, pitfalls and known roadblocks; but
also take into consideration any of the unforeseen inclement weather and unanticipated
wash-outs that well likely encounter along the way. Good Luck &
Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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