|
How
To Get THERE from HERE
Part VI Precision-Shooting
Is A Journey Rather Than A Destination Someone
much brighter than me coined that phrase in the first place, then someone else adapted it
from a life in general axiom to a verity that is especially appropriate
for aspiring Precision-Shooters. As
for me, well, I just repeated it here because it applies equally to our dice-setting methods as well as our craps-betting process. Again,
Precision-Shooting is a journey rather than a destination.
Ø
Continual
improvements to your skill-set require constant changes to your betting-methods as well.
Ø
Small
changes to your wagering-approach often lead to better ways of extracting additional
profit from your current abilities. Its
a two-way street.
Ø
Tailoring
your bets to accurately reflect your current skill, profitably enables and tangibly
validates your talent in the first place.
Ø
If
you shoot well and bet well
you get the profit.
Ø
If
you shoot badly or bet badly
you lose your money.
Ø
Its
hard to have one without the other, unless you have incredible and sustainable luck
(which, in the casino-context, is highly unlikely). I
want you to notice that I said, shoot well AND
bet well; then, shoot badly OR bet
badly. Part
of the difficulty with Precision-Shooting is that to do well, you have to do two
things properly and concurrently: you have to shoot well AND bet well. On
the other hand, to lose money at Precision-Shooting, you can fall short on EITHER
of those two things and still end up leaving a portion of your bankroll safely in the
hands of the casino instead of your own.
Ø
If
the dice-outcomes dont reflect your betting-intentions; then sustainable profit is
not often going to be yours.
Ø
You
can be the worlds greatest shooter, but if your bets dont reflect your
dice-results; then youll still probably end up losing money
a sad, but very
true facet of Precision-Shooting (and the chief reason why you dont see more people
making sustainable profit DESPITE their outstanding throwing-abilities). To
make matters worse: Most
players make their Precision-Shooting journey much more UN-profitable than it has to be. Lets
explore that a little further
Opportunity
TODAY Is Often Overlooked Because of Tomorrow Instead
of using their current skills with properly matched bets; many players set unrealistic
goals of unrealistic profitability for some far off tomorrow; and as a result,
largely by-pass the real opportunities that are right in front of them today. Unfortunately
too many players tap out their bankroll long before reaching that illusionary tomorrow;
never realizing they had profitably sustainable skills TODAY! A
quick illustration of what Im talking about: One
incredibly skilled player that I know, plays with a rock-steady 10% advantage over the
house; yet his bankroll steadily bleeds red based on his penchant for hopping the
red whenever the urge hits him
and unfortunately the urge hits him often. Equally
as unfortunate, it hits his bankroll even harder. If
you ask any seasoned casino-player, most would tell you that theyd kill to get a 10%
edge over the house. There is absolutely no
reason in the world why someone with that big of an edge over the house is not taking
loads of ready-made cash off of the table. Each
time this guy gets his hands on the dice, he does take loads of ready-made cash off
of the table in a nice steady (dare I say, predictable) way that seems
almost effortless. If I didnt know how
hard he practices, and how much time he has dedicated to perfecting his craft; I would
have thought it just came to him naturally. He
makes Precision-Shooting look THAT easy. Even
most of his betting (during his roll) is proportioned correctly in order to make
max-dollars without unjustified risk. Yet all
of that profit plus a little more from his own pocket will go right back to the casino in
the form of unrealized (non-winning) Any-7 wagers that he makes on everyone else. He
makes those Hopping-7 wagers at the drop of a hat
and the approach of a
waitress
and the appearance of a craps-number
and a Table-game Supervisor
picking up the stack of Player Rating Cards
and if someone coughs, sneezes, or
farts
and if anyone late-bets
and if the dice accidentally tumble as the
stickman is sending them over to the shooter (even if they dont show a 7)
and
if someones wife or girlfriend approaches the table
and a thousand other
reasons that he feels is an appropriate reason to bet an Any-7 Big Red. I
would estimate that he Hops the Red about once every three or four rolls,
although Ive seen him chase and replace the same non-winning bet for more than 20+
rolls in a row. No wonder he ends almost
every session with a loss, regardless of how much money his own great shooting generates. His
reasoning is that hes only spending six bucks ($9) when he makes those bets, and
though he makes ~36 of them an hour (for a cost of ~$324+), his says his verified 10%
Precision-Shooting advantage SHOULD be good enough to allow him that luxury. In
fact, there is absolutely nothing wrong with his Precision-Shooting, and everything
wrong
well, okay just one thing wrong, but its a BIG one
thing, about his betting that is surrendering his huge and toughly gained advantage over
the house
right back to them, plus a little bit more. Ive
only known him for a little over three years now, and though his shooting has improved
markedly over that period; his Hopping Red wagering has actually gotten even more frequent
(and even more unprofitable) over the same time frame. He
keeps telling me that hes hoping to improve upon his ability to predict
random-roller 7s so that his Hopping Red bet will eventually start to pan
out better in the future; yet the profit he continues to relinquish (give back) in
that pursuit is the reason WHY he took up dice-influencing in the first place. He
took up dice-setting because it looked like a great way to make somewhat reliable money,
and even though it now does everything for him that he ever dreamed it could
he is
STILL unable to show an annual net-profit despite his outstanding abilities. Oh
sure, he makes a profit on almost every hand, but then gives all of it right back in the
form of non-winning Hop-7 bets. The even more
ironic part of all this, is that when the Hop-7s DO win, it gives him more
impetus and bravado to increase his bets on the Any-7 from there on out. So his $9 Hopping Red turns into a $15 or $30
Hopping Red for the rest of the session. He
further reasons (quite illogically), that if he improves his shooting skills just a little
bit more, hell be able to show a profit despite any increased kamikaze
betting on the Hopping Red. While
he says hes there for the profit, and he certainly does have a penchant for
earning it during his rolls; he invariably keeps giving more and more of it right back on
every other shooter that picks up the dice. Profit
earned and then returned is not
retained-earnings
its
well its what the casinos LIVE FOR! Skill
TODAY Should Deliver PROFIT Today It
does not take an unbelievably high SRR or On-axis Percentage or superior repeatability of
your Signature Numbers to derive decent and
reliable profit from this game. Steady
profit for the modestly-skilled dicesetter is derived as follows:
Ø
It
takes a well thought out betting-method that takes advantage of your current skill, but
doesnt require undue bankroll risk.
Ø
It
takes a betting-method that is based on the average of what you normally throw while the
dice are in your hand, and provides even more growth potential if your turn runs longer
than that norm.
Ø
It
derives about 50% to 80% of its revenue-consistency from the workmanlike short runs (hands
that last anywhere from 3 to 10 rolls), and therefore doesnt require the mythical
unending roll to show a profit.
Ø
Though
our betting-methods cant bank solely on the occasional long-rolls (because we never
know in advance when they will happen), our wagering-approach has to be flexible enough to
take advantage of them when the mega-rolls do come along.
Ø
On
the other hand, we have to structure our bets so that we earn money from all but the
shortest (point-then-Out) hands. Through that
approach, our wagers reflect our hope for the best, but preparation for the worst. It is that sense of survival that modestly-skilled
dice-setters need to have in place before ascending to the upper-ranks of performance and
profit. Focus
on Today
Prepare For Tomorrow
The
idea is to take the skills that you are currently exhibiting, and profitably using them to
fuel tomorrows higher betting-plateaus and more flexible wagering-methods. You
cant do that unless you are taking (and KEEPING) a portion of your
skill-based profit off of the tables today. Were
not talking about requiring huge wins on a steady basis.
Rather, were talking about the fact that most of your sessions will
see you get ahead at some point, and then having you take a portion of those winnings
(along with your original buy-in) and using it to fuel tomorrows higher bet-plateaus. Now
tomorrow in this context means that you are going to save up your small
but steady earning until you have doubled your normal buy-in, and then to use that
increased war-chest to spawn bet-levels that are perhaps 10% to 15% higher than the ones
you are making now. That may not literally be
tomorrow, and may in fact take you several weeks or even months to accomplish
it. Patience
is critical in terms of scaling up your bet-levels with a sufficient bankroll to back it
up. Clearly
we dont take ALL of our winnings and try to parlay them in a single-hand effort to
double them again. Instead, we use a portion
of those winnings to fuel future earnings-growth. We
re-invest 10% to 15% of our now-expanded bankroll into making slightly larger base-bets or
to afford a Steeper Regression. Again
we arent going to suddenly develop an appetite for high risk. Having more money to work with does not
automatically mean that we can get silly with our bets.
Rather, we take the mature and business-like approach that prescribes a
conservative re-investment strategy along with a plan to retain a much larger portion of
our winnings as RETAINED-earnings.
Ø
Your
skills TODAY often hold profit-potential that you may be overlooking in pursuit of
tomorrows hoped-for better proficiency.
Ø
Your
shooting and your betting should compliment, and not diminish the positive aspects of one
another.
Ø
Earned
profit is not money to be squandered. Once
you earn it, it is up to you to KEEP it. By
only using a portion of those winnings to fuel slightly larger base-bets or a steeper
initial Regression; we enforce a kind of compulsory savings plan for our non-reinvested
earnings.
Ø
An
increased bankroll adds flexibility to your betting-regimen, yet shouldnt inspire
sloppiness or careless risk. Rather, it
should bolster your confidence now that you have much more formidable resources to back up
your Precision-Shooting play.
Ø
All
of your bets, including those made on any other players; still have to be evaluated, as
in, Is this the right thing to be doing with my money at this moment?,
and Will this next wager give me as good of a chance of making a net-profit than
if I was betting it during my own roll? Opportunity
(and money) that you squander now, has to be made up for with even BETTER
Precision-Shooting down the road. Therefore
it makes quite a bit of sense to earn and retain as much of your casino-income as
possible. By
saving most of that profit, and re-investing a portion of it; we are able to ratchet up
our base-betting levels, but always have something much more tangible to show for our
successful efforts in the form of retained-earnings. Not
taking full advantage of your skills today and not retaining as high of a percentage of
your profit as possible (while still using a portion of your income to ratchet up your
bets); means that you are surrendering a portion of the edge that you have worked so hard
to gain
right back to the casino! If
you dont take what is yours, then the casinos are VERY happy to keep it as theirs! What
Could Be
What SHOULD Be
Its
interesting to watch Precision-Shooters when they bet on their own hands. Some match their current bets to their current
outcomes, while other place bets that they hope will come in. Often
times
Im sure youve seen it yourself
where the shooter will unleash
a string of numbers that he doesnt have a single solitary bet on. He keeps banging out the same numbers, and the
bets he does have out there look like forgotten orphans that are surrounded by more
favored offspring that everyone except the dice-shooter is taking advantage of. Ive
seen some great shooters have hands in the 30, 40, and 50-roll category, yet end up losing
money from that hand. While everyone else is
cleaning up and coloring-out mounds of chips that teeter and wobble from their unwieldy
height; the skilled-shooter is looking at his rail and second-guessing himself as to why
he didnt put any money on any the good results the dice were giving him. To his mind, the dice seemed to have eyes, and
were somehow avoiding his bets while managing to hit repeatedly on everyone
elses
time and time and time again. Their
bets COULD have been his bets too. In
fact, their bets SHOULD have been his bets too. His
rolls
his bets
his decisions
his lost opportunity. His
mind-set: I
know the profit COULD be mine and SHOULD be mine, but I choose not to take it in the hopes
that my shooting will improve to the point where I can make sustainable profit with the
bets that I am comfortable in making now. Like
I said earlier: Most
players make their Precision-Shooting journey much more UN-profitable than it has to be. Its
Up to You
As
Precision-Shooters, it is our responsibility to construct bets and wager-sequences that
make sense from a sustainable economic point of view.
If
there is money to be made because the dice are indicating that this is where your right
here, right now opportunity is; then its up to you to make the
bet-decisions that are in your own best-interest (and still within the comfort-zone of the
particular casino you are presently playing in). Again,
its a YOUR rolls
YOUR bets
YOUR decisions
YOUR opportunity
situation. As
We Evolve
As
our throwing-skills and betting-methods continually improve and evolve, we have to
frequently update what it is we know, recognize, and assume about our current money-making
opportunities.
Ø
Slight
shooting improvements in one area (increased primary-face outcomes, on-axis secondaries,
repeating back-to-back Signature Numbers, off-axis dominants, recurring clumpings
of certain outcomes like Horn, Inside, Outside or Field-numbers, etc.), frequently
unearths an entire new world of betting-opportunities.
Ø
Improved
insight into WHEN to bet often reduces our risk without impacting profit.
Ø
Improved
insight into WHAT to bet usually increases our profit as well as reducing risk. Viewed
another way:
Ø
Sometimes
all it requires is a small shift from the bets you have been making, to the
number-outcomes that you are CURRENTLY getting; that will make all the difference
in the world
or at least all the difference in your pocket. Perception
Often Limits Our Profit-Reality
I
think its pretty safe to say that most professional Precision-Shooters let our previous
dice-shooting performances dictate our current betting-methods.
Ø
We
know what our Signature-Numbers are based on what we normally throw and how much outside
of the norm (better than the 36-roll Expectancy Chart) our Precision-Shooting actually is.
Ø
We
base our betting-approach on where our current strengths presently lay.
Ø
We
limit our bets in a way that gives us the best shot of producing a profit, yet preserving
our bankroll in the event those bets dont work out. That
is HOW we form our perceptions and current betting-methods; but sometimes that very same
experience tends to hold us back.
Ø
Once
you know where your profit-opportunities are, you have to make the required bet-decisions
to properly exploit them. Okay
that part of it were pretty clear on.
Ø
If
timing is everything, then proper timing in Precision-Shooting is everything times two. Again,
theres no disputing that knowing WHEN to bet and WHAT to bet on mostly means the
difference between profit and loss; or at least predictable profit instead of mostly
break-even or marginal income. Heres
the problem though
Ø
Often
we are reluctant to pull the trigger in terms of moving our bets to where they
SHOULD currently be right here, right now, from the spots (bets) that
have traditionally brought in the most money for us (our Top Four Signature Numbers for
example). This
is where many highly-skilled and seasoned shooters fail to capitalize on their current, this-very-moment
opportunities that everyone else at the table is raking in tons of money from. My
way to deal with that is to reduce a portion of my traditionally high-producing (but
currently sleeping) wagers, and put some of their weight (money) onto the numbers that are
showing up right here and right now.
Ø
That
means that we havent completely abandoned our primary income-producers (especially
if our Signature Numbers suddenly decide to come back from vacation).
Ø
Instead,
we give the present high-activity performers a chance to show how productive they can be
if afforded a properly-financed opportunity. How
To SEE It, And What To Do About It
Seeing
the present opportunity and deciding what to do with it comes down to a couple of things:
Ø
Enhanced
trend-determining perception This
is the ability to look at your current shooting at this very moment and decide
whether you are in the early, middle or late stages of a certain trend. Again
it could be a new indication of increased primary-face outcomes, on-axis secondaries,
repeating back-to-back non-Signature Numbers, off-axis dominants, recurring clumpings
of certain outcomes like Horn, Inside, Outside or Field-numbers, etc. What is important is that you first SEE
the opportunity, and then give yourself permission to act on it. Even
if the numbers you are producing arent among your current Top Four Signature
Numbers, but they are recurring with enough frequency for you to notice; then you have to
make the mature decision whether or not it represents a reasonable betting opportunity.
Ø
Bet-decision
instincts
Here again, you have to strike a balance between what you normally bet on and what you
should possibly be betting on right now. If
the stream of numbers you are rolling are not what you currently have wagers on; then you
have to make a decision whether those new numbers warrant a small portion of your wagering
attention, and whether or not some of your current (but non-performing) wagering-weight
should be shifted OFF of your non-hitting bets and ONTO the numbers that are
repeating.
Ø
Clarified
intuition Human-nature
causes us to remember our good decisions but discard and forget about the bad ones. You have to see past that self-induced mental-fog,
and determine whether the intuition that you have, should be trusted or is highly
doubtful and suspect. Remember,
you are making monetary decisions that determine your ultimate profit or loss. If you dont continually update and
re-validate your intuition, you may be making decisions that are based on the flimsiest of
superstitions, fallacies, false notions and self-delusions.
That is NOT how you are going to make a steady profit from THIS game.
All
of these elements are linked.
Ø
Each
medium-to-long hand has its own self-contained trend.
Ø
Currently
recurring numbers often supplement or supercede your normal Signature Numbers.
Ø
Thats
not something to freak out over or get disappointed with
its something to
take advantage of!
Ø
Not
all roll-results require re-aligned betting.
Ø
You
have to find a balance in being too quick in pulling the trigger (and betting on a false
shadow of what appeared to be a possible target) and waiting too long (and
missing the target-of-opportunity long after it has passed completely out of range).
Ø
RECURRING
roll-results (as defined above) require throw-by-throw decision-making and
well-thought-out bet redeployments.
Ø
Well-substantiated
intuition IS actionable, but baseless superstitions and false notions arent;
so the skilled Precision-Shooter (who doesnt want to miss opportunities, yet not
flinch every time a non-wagered outcome appears) has to rationally decide which is which. This
series is all about determining the best and safest way to get from HERE
(where your current skill-set profit-making is right now) to THERE (the
place where your current skill-set profit-making SHOULD BE). Making
the best-informed and least-tainted bet-decisions during EACH turn you have with the dice
is one of the primary ways for you to bring home the gold, without increasing your
inherent risk. In other words, its how
we get from HERE to THERE. Good Luck &
Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
|
|