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Regression Avoids
Depression For
the longest time now, immigrants from the advantage-play blackjack community have been
saying that regression-style wagering is not applicable to craps (or any other form of
gambling) even if you have an edge over the casino.
They reason that your edge is steady from one roll to the next, and
therefore your bets should remain steady as well; so that precludes any wagering ideas
that involve any form of bet-decreasing or bet-increasing. As
Ive been saying all along, regression-betting IS validly applicable to
dice-influencing. Just as they were wrong
about the entire notion that dice-influencing couldnt, wouldnt or
shouldnt work; they are wrong now about the prohibition against regression-betting
too. You
Wanted Proof
Youve Got It The
randomly-expected 6-out-of-36 appearance-rate for the 7 produces an overall
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) of 1:6.
Ø
That
equates to a 7s expectancy-rate of 16.67% on any given roll.
Ø
Expressed
another way; that means the expectancy-rate of not rolling a seven is 83.33%.
The
more we can avoid the 7, the more we can exploit the other numbers that are appearing in
its stead.
The
less 7s we have to contend with in our personally reconfigured outcome distribution
chart; the more we are able to exploit the dice results we actually produce. Though our SRR is not the be-all and end-all
of our dice-influencing skills; it does give us a strong foundation upon which we can
configure fundamental betting strategies. That
is, if we know how many rolls per point-cycle we have to deal with, and for example, how
many Inside-numbers we will generally hit before 7ing-Out; the better prepared we
are to utilize our dice-influencing abilities to their fullest. Lets
do a side-by side comparison between a random SRR-6 roller and a modestly-skilled SRR-7
dice-influencer, an SRR-8 guy and a SRR-9 precision-shooter, to see how far each can
confidently get in their respective expected roll-durations.
A
point-cycle roll is one that occurs after you first establish
the Passline-Point but before you either repeat your PL-Point or you 7-Out. If lets say, you establish the 6 as your
PL-Point, and you subsequently roll a 5, an 11, a 9, a 10, and a 7; then the 5 was your first
point-cycle roll, while the 11 was your second point-cycle roll, and the 9 was your
third. The 7-Out occurred on the fifth
point-cycle roll. As
you can see from the chart above, the random-roller will get in at least one point-cycle
roll before 7ing-Out, about 83% of the time; while the chances of him getting to his
second, third and fourth roll drops precipitously. By
skillfully avoiding the 7, the ascending-order dice-influencers enjoy an increasingly
wider margin over the random-expectancy of a short-lived hand. However, it is obvious that each skill-level of
shooter still has a limited time (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls)
in which to have his bets fully pay for themselves and ultimately produce a net-profit
regardless of (or rather, in full recognition of) his respective SRR-rate. Now
to be clear, a random-rollers chance of throwing a 7 remains rock-steady on a per-roll
basis at 1-in-6 (16.67%). The problem however
is with the cumulative effect of such a high-percentage occurrence. That means that the snowballing effect of
roll-after-roll-after-roll 7-avoidance mathematically gangs up and ultimately conspires
against the likelihood of frequent long hands. Although
long, randomly-tossed mega-rolls sometimes do occur; they are noteworthy because of
their unusual length and infrequent appearance, and that is why even regression-style
betting cannot overcome the house-edge in a randomly-thrown game. In
a random outcome game, Inside-Numbers constitute 50% of all possible outcomes:
Ø
Four
way to make a 5
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9 Therefore,
Inside-numbers constitute 18-out-of-36 (50%) of all randomly-expected outcomes. With
eighteen Inside-number outcomes for every six 7-Out results, that 3:1 Inside-numbers-to-Sevens
ratio at first blush seems like a pretty good hit-rate.
Take a look at how a dice-influencers skill-set improves upon that ratio and
ultimately puts him into the drivers seat.
Based
on this, we can make some general observations about how many Inside-numbers each player
will hit based upon his skill-level. From
there we can determine how often an Inside-number might occur for each of these SRR-rates,
and how far each player can be expected to go during an average hand. Now
clearly you should be looking at your SPECIFIC Foundation Frequency and Signature
Number outcomes to personalize this chart, but here is how it looks if you have an even
distribution across all of the other non-7 outcomes.
As
you can see for the SRR-6 shooter, the Inside-Numbers expectancy-rate declines
precipitously on each and every subsequent point-cycle toss, which explains just why it is
so hard from a random-roller to get anywhere with any type of betting. On the other hand, as a dice-influencers skill
improves, so does the average duration and Inside-Number hit-rate of his rolls. Since
the 7 is the most dominant of the eleven possible two-die outcomes, we know that long
rolls are possible, but they are far outnumbered by many more short ones. The savvy advantage-player recognizes this and can
ultimately exploit it through the use of an Initial Steep Regression. By
utilizing the exact same proven methodology that the math-guys do to figure out
random-expectancy roll-duration; we can use that very same process to figure out the
average duration of a dice-influenced 7-avoidance hand, thereby giving us a basis upon
which to properly structure a geared-to-skill Initial Steep Regression too. In
Part Three of this series, Im going to show you a number of innovative
ways to profitably utilize what we have covered today. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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