
Regression Avoids
Depression For
the longest time now, immigrants from the advantageplay blackjack community have been
saying that regressionstyle wagering is not applicable to craps (or any other form of
gambling) even if you have an edge over the casino.
They reason that your edge is steady from one roll to the next, and
therefore your bets should remain steady as well; so that precludes any wagering ideas
that involve any form of betdecreasing or betincreasing. As
I’ve been saying all along, regressionbetting IS validly applicable to
diceinfluencing. Just as they were wrong
about the entire notion that diceinfluencing couldn’t, wouldn’t or
shouldn’t work; they are wrong now about the prohibition against regressionbetting
too. You
Wanted Proof…You’ve Got It The
randomlyexpected 6outof36 appearancerate for the “7” produces an overall
SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) of 1:6.
Ø
That
equates to a 7’s expectancyrate of 16.67% on any given roll.
Ø
Expressed
another way; that means the expectancyrate of not rolling a seven is 83.33%.
The
more we can avoid the 7, the more we can exploit the other numbers that are appearing in
its stead.
The
less 7’s we have to contend with in our personally reconfigured outcome distribution
chart; the more we are able to exploit the dice results we actually produce. Though our SRR is not the beall and endall
of our diceinfluencing skills; it does give us a strong foundation upon which we can
configure fundamental betting strategies. That
is, if we know how many rolls per pointcycle we have to deal with, and for example, how
many Insidenumbers we will generally hit before 7’ingOut; the better prepared we
are to utilize our diceinfluencing abilities to their fullest. Let’s
do a sideby side comparison between a random SRR6 roller and a modestlyskilled SRR7
diceinfluencer, an SRR8 guy and a SRR9 precisionshooter, to see how far each can
confidently get in their respective expected rolldurations.
A
“pointcycle roll” is one that occurs after you first establish
the PasslinePoint but before you either repeat your PLPoint or you 7Out. If let’s say, you establish the 6 as your
PLPoint, and you subsequently roll a 5, an 11, a 9, a 10, and a 7; then the 5 was your first
pointcycle roll, while the 11 was your second pointcycle roll, and the 9 was your
third. The 7Out occurred on the fifth
pointcycle roll. As
you can see from the chart above, the randomroller will get in at least one pointcycle
roll before 7’ingOut, about 83% of the time; while the chances of him getting to his
second, third and fourth roll drops precipitously. By
skillfully avoiding the 7, the ascendingorder diceinfluencers enjoy an increasingly
wider margin over the randomexpectancy of a shortlived hand. However, it is obvious that each skilllevel of
shooter still has a limited time (as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls)
in which to have his bets fully pay for themselves and ultimately produce a netprofit
regardless of (or rather, in full recognition of) his respective SRRrate. Now
to be clear, a randomrollers chance of throwing a 7 remains rocksteady on a perroll
basis at 1in6 (16.67%). The problem however
is with the cumulative effect of such a highpercentage occurrence. That means that the snowballing effect of
rollafterrollafterroll 7avoidance mathematically gangs up and ultimately conspires
against the likelihood of frequent long hands. Although
long, randomlytossed megarolls sometimes do occur; they are noteworthy because of
their unusual length and infrequent appearance, and that is why even regressionstyle
betting cannot overcome the houseedge in a randomlythrown game. In
a random outcome game, InsideNumbers constitute 50% of all possible outcomes:
Ø
Four
way to make a 5
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8
Ø
Four
ways to make a 9 Therefore,
Insidenumbers constitute 18outof36 (50%) of all randomlyexpected outcomes. With
eighteen Insidenumber outcomes for every six 7Out results, that 3:1 InsidenumberstoSevens
ratio at first blush seems like a pretty good hitrate.
Take a look at how a diceinfluencers skillset improves upon that ratio and
ultimately puts him into the drivers seat.
Based
on this, we can make some general observations about how many Insidenumbers each player
will hit based upon his skilllevel. From
there we can determine how often an Insidenumber might occur for each of these SRRrates,
and how far each player can be expected to go during an average hand. Now
clearly you should be looking at your SPECIFIC Foundation Frequency and Signature
Number outcomes to personalize this chart, but here is how it looks if you have an even
distribution across all of the other non7 outcomes.
As
you can see for the SRR6 shooter, the InsideNumbers expectancyrate declines
precipitously on each and every subsequent pointcycle toss, which explains just why it is
so hard from a randomroller to get anywhere with any type of betting. On the other hand, as a diceinfluencers skill
improves, so does the average duration and InsideNumber hitrate of his rolls. Since
the 7 is the most dominant of the eleven possible twodie outcomes, we know that long
rolls are possible, but they are far outnumbered by many more short ones. The savvy advantageplayer recognizes this and can
ultimately exploit it through the use of an Initial Steep Regression. By
utilizing the exact same proven methodology that the mathguys do to figure out
randomexpectancy rollduration; we can use that very same process to figure out the
average duration of a diceinfluenced 7avoidance hand, thereby giving us a basis upon
which to properly structure a gearedtoskill Initial Steep Regression too. In
Part Three of this series, I’m going to show you a number of innovative
ways to profitably utilize what we have covered today. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

