
Regression Avoids
Depression
Reconciling
WinRate With RollSurvival Rate If
we look at strictly flatbetting a wager like $22Inside, we know that it takes
several hits to pay for itself before finally emerging with a profit:
For
a straight, nonpressed, nonregressed $22Inside wager, it takes four winning hits before
it pays for itself and delivers a profit. Unfortunately,
when using that method, a randomroller always stays on the negative side of the equation
because the InsideNumberstoSevens Ratio is 3:1, and it takes more than three
hits just to earn your money back. Likewise,
it is important to note that our rollduration and betsurvival rate is almost opposite to
each other.
Ø The
longer (the more rolls) it takes for a flatbet like $22Inside to pay for itself; the
more likely it is to fall short of producing a netprofit.
Ø By
the same token, the higher our SevenstoRolls Ratio is, the longer our bets
can stay out on the layout to produce a netprofit.
Ø The
lower and closer our SRR is to random; then the more condensed our time to harvest
a netprofit will be. Simply
stated, a higher SRR gives us more rolls to work with, while a lower SRR reduces our
useable number of pointcycle rolls. The
primary way to ascertain the appropriate regressionpoint in our hand is determined by our
SevenstoRoll ratio, simply because our SRR is the chief determinant of how long, on
average, our pointcycle will last. This
Won’t Take Long…Did It
Again,
when measured on a perroll basis, our ability to avoid the 7 remains constant.
Ø For a randomroller, it remains at 16.67% on each and every toss. However, his chances of having one, two, three, four or more rolls without a 7 decreases simply because of the cumulative nature of the 7occurrence rate.
Ø
For
the SRR7 shooter, the sevensappearancerate is 14.29%.
As a result, his chances of having one, two, three, four or more rolls
without a 7, increases slightly due to the faintly less cumulative nature of
his 7occurrence rate.
Ø
Likewise
for the skilled SRR8 shooter, his perroll sevensappearancerate is 12.5%. Therefore, his chances of having one, two, three,
four or more rolls without a 7 increases significantly when compared to a
SRR6 randomroller, due to his lower cumulative 7’s occurrencerate.
Ø
More
over, the SRR9 PrecisionShooter enjoys an 11.11% sevensappearancerate on a perroll
basis. As a result, his chances of having
one, two, three, four or more rolls without a 7, increases dramatically when
compared to random expectation because of his much lower cumulative 7’s
occurrencerate. When
a diceinfluencer looks at his skills, he obviously has to include his ability to avoid
the 7 into that calculation matrix.
Ø
A
player’s ability to avoid the 7 determines how long, on average, his pointcycle roll
will usually last.
Ø Again, we are talking averages here, so that range includes everything from all of his pointthen7Out hands to his rarer mega and minimammoth ones too.
Ø
Our
SRR determines how frequently the 7 is likely to show up, and by logical extension, it
determines how many rolls on average we will have to profitably exploit any of our betting
methods. Knowing
this is extremely important when it comes to considering globaltype multinumber bets
that require numerous hits before becoming netprofitable.
InsideNumber wagers fall into this global category. As we will see in a moment, that is why the
use of steep regressions are so important to the netprofitability of skilled
diceinfluencers.
As
I pointed out previously, your SRR and the frequency of InsideNumbers that you produce
within that range, will be somewhat different than the evendistribution examples that
I’ve used here; however, these charts will give you a general idea of where some of
your biggest profitmaking opportunities can be found.
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory for the
InsideNumber bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high startingvalue.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can regress our large
initial wager down to a lower level and concurrently lockin a netprofit while still
providing us with active bets on the layout in the event that our handduration does
exceed and survive that transition point, as it often will.
A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $110Inside versus the use of an initial
$110Inside wager that is steeply regressed to $22Inside at the appropriate
InsideNumberstoSevens ratio triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression should take place.
Here’s
a comparison between flatbetting versus the use of an Initial Steep Regression:
I
hope you’ll join me for Part Five of this series. Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor

