Shooting from the Don’t…A Journey of Opportunity – Part 12

In accordance with the informal pact that I made with a group of players who frequent the small tribal casinos of Northern Michigan and Wisconsin, not to openly trumpet just how incredibly good the tables are in those known-only-to-a-few gaming-houses; I’ll keep the details about the outstanding WI playing-conditions to an absolute minimum, and instead continue to focus on the technical aspects of Darkside-shooting.  However, next months Don’t-side cross-continent journey takes us into a different jurisdiction, so we’ll resume the highly-detailed playing-condition reports that have been a hallmark of this series.

My Don’t-side Dairyland Chronicles

Driving the considerable distances between the far-flung casinos of Wisconsin gave me a chance to fully indulge my eclectic musical tastes for hours at a time.  From Aker Bilk, Toots and the Maytals, Bare-Naked Ladies and Jean-Luc Ponty…to The Dead Kennedys, Bedouin Soundclash and Angry Samoans…all the way to David Hickey and John McLaughlin. 

The driving distances also let me “blue-sky” a couple of new Dark-shooting concepts as well as coming up with a few untraditional applications for some time-honored not-so-new ones.  After all, this journey is largely a cross-continent experiment designed to push the envelope of what works, what doesn’t work, and what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the Don’t.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, there are any number of terrible random betting-methods out there that are perfectly adaptable to and make perfect sense for advantage-play dice-influencers. 

It was with that in mind that I wanted to conduct some further experimentation with a couple of traditional methods that have fallen into discredit and disuse now that Precision-Shooting has become firmly entrenched among well-informed advantage-players.

One of those neglected betting-methods is the…

3-Point Molly Don’t  

This is the Darkside version of the traditional 3-Point Molly where a Do-side player makes a bet on the Pass-line and then follows it up with two additional Come-bets.

 Here on the Darkside, this method would entail making a Don’t Pass bet with Odds, and then two Don’t Come bets, again with Odds.

 So why would I even consider using such a simple method after experimenting with and validating far more sophisticated Don’t-side betting-methods?

 Well, as I mentioned a moment ago, this journey is largely an experiment designed to push the advantage-play envelope of what works, what doesn’t work, and what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the Don’t; and I had my suspicions that this particular gaming approach could hold tremendous profit if given a fair assessment.

Here’s why: 

•  When I looked back over my gaming stats for the multiple jurisdictions I had been Dark-shooting in so far on this trip (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, New York, and Michigan); I saw that it was taking less and less time during the point-cycle portion of my hand to intentionally 7-Out. 

•  That is, my roll-stats indicated that once my PL-Point was established while using my come-out “Game Within A Game” profit-making approach; it was then taking an average of 2.8 rolls after establishing the PL-Point before intentionally 7’ing-Out.  That 2.8 point-cycle roll-average includes the final 7-Out toss itself. 

•  If you back out the final hand-ending 7-Out, that leaves 1.8 non-7 and non-DP-Point-repeating rolls per point-cycle. 

•  Those 1.8 non-hand-ending rolls per point-cycle are an important benchmark in terms of structuring betting-methods that recognize just how long my average DP point-cycle will last when I am intentionally trying to keep that portion of the hand as short as possible. 

•  In other words, if I have an average of 1.8 heart-of-the-point-cycle rolls, any Darkside betting-method that I consider using, has to recognize and accommodate that aspect. 

•  Based on that, I figured I could possibly profitably exploit a portion of those mid-hand non-7 point-cycle rolls by establishing a traveled Don’t Come bet with Odds before 7’ing-Out, and thereby increase the average-profitability of each hand. 

•  Obviously I had to be cognizant of the fact that any of my Don’t-Come bets would be susceptible to unintentional “early” 7-Outs while they were still in the Don’t-Come box.

Additionally, I was aware that my usual point-cycle dice-set permutations were loaded with tons of non-box-numbers, and although I would get an instant-paying bonus if a 2 and 3 came up while one of my wagers was still in the D-C box; it also meant an instant loser for the same wager if an 11 (or 7) showed up instead.

So it was with all of that in mind that I gave the ?-Point Molly Don’t method some careful consideration.  Obviously, the first thing I had to figure out was how many “D-C points” per-hand I could reasonably afford to establish.

Here’s what I was dealing with in terms of 25 days worth of in-casino roll-stats from Northern Michigan: 

After reviewing my most recent in-casino stats, the first thing I realized was that trying to get away with a 3-Point Don’t-side Molly (one Don’t Pass bet plus two Don’t Come wagers) was way too dangerous in terms of the number of Don’t Come bets that would have been left “stranded” when my intentional point-cycle 7-Out’s rolled. 

In other words, my intentionally low SRR would work against the idea of establishing more than one Don’t Come wager during the point-cycle simply because most attempts to establish an additional DC-Point beyond the first one would probably not get to “travel” to an actual box-number and instead would fall victim to my point-cycle 7-Out intentions. 

On the other hand, these roll-stats gave me some encouragement to at least try a 2-Point Molly Don’t (one Don’t Pass bet with full-Odds plus one Don’t Come bet backed with full-Odds when it travels to a subsequent box-number). 

Admittedly, this betting-method is not terribly inventive, however I was convinced that it might turn out to be reasonably profitable.

Juggling Chainsaws and Serving Several Masters

• When considering either a 2-Point or 3-Point Don’t-side Molly; a skilled dice-influencer has to juggle a number of conflicting factors that either play into and support your efforts or conspire and work against them.

• For example, once your DP-Point has been set, your objective is to 7-Out as quickly as possible.

• However, by making a Don’t Come wager on your first post-come-out roll, you want it to travel to a box-number instead of succumbing an immediate 7-Out.

•  At the same time, you don’t want that DC-bet to be traveling to your DP-Point since a DP-repeater results in an immediate loss…as well as a couple of suppressed laughs from fellow players.

 Since most Darkside dice-influencers use a 7-dominant dice-set or some permutation thereof during their point-cycle, it often throws off a fair number of craps numbers.  For the Darksider who is betting the Don’t-Come, that can mean an instant win when either the 2 or 3 shows up (and pays 1:1 even-money on your D-C wager), but it can also produce an instant D-C loser if the Yo-11 or 7-Out rolls.

Based on those sometimes conflicting and contradictory objectives, I took my 2-Point Molly Don’t to the Wisconsin tables.

 “Any Bozo Can Seven-Out” 

So I’m standing at the 20-player barge-table in Mohican North Star Casino, and it was my tenth hand with the dice during a decidedly cold (for everyone else) session, where it was taking just two or three or rarely four point-cycle rolls for me to intentionally 7-Out.  In fact, it was taking a similar number of rolls for every other shooter to UNINTENTIONALLY do the same thing. 

Yet I was the only Darksider among them 

There was a Ted Nugent-looking wannabe who was getting madder and madder with each hand-ending roll, especially when it was my intentional 7-Out that was plunging his bankroll deeper and deeper into the frigid depths.  After my most recent 7-Out win (and his corresponding loss), he said dismissively, “Any bozo can Seven-Out.”  My response was, “If that is the case, then why not MAKE money on it instead of LOSING money like you are doing?  Maybe you should have said, “Any bozo can LOSE money to a 7-Out…but it takes a little common sense to MAKE money from it”. 

Two more laps around the table continued to knock off every single Passline-bet save and except for a few occasional PL Come-Out winners.  It was also enough to totally banish all but three die-hard Rightsiders who themselves were down to the skeletal remains of their originally fat and sassy bankrolls. 

When it finally came down to just me and one other player, he intrepidly said he was going to join me on the Don’t Pass.  I asked him why he waited so long, and he said that he “had to play with these other fellas pretty much every session, and didn’t want to make them feel like he didn’t believe in them.”  My only reply was that “the price of trying to make everyone else at the table happy sure seemed expensive tonight”.  He nodded with resigned acknowledgement. 

Before we get into the results of my 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment, I want to share the briefest of summaries about the Wisconsin casinos that I played in during this leg of my Darkside journey:

Menominee Casino-Hotel in Keshena, about half-an-hour north of Green Bay, boasts one 16-foot table and one stand-up 10-player/one-dealer tub table.  Bet-minimums are usually $2 or $3 with 2x-Odds and $3-minimum Place-bets during the week.  Those minimums rise to $5 on the weekend.  The casinos sweat-tolerance bet-threshold for Rightsiders seems to be just over the $50/$60 per Place-bet mark, so Steep 5:1 Regressions like $110-Inside regressed to $22-Inside shouldn’t pose any sort of a problem.  For Darksiders, the sweat-tolerance bet-threshold is anything over the $150 in Odds level.

The 100-room Menominee Hotel is a very easy comp for players who spread wagers similar to those mentioned above.  Comp requirements for food at the Forest Grill restaurant is obviously quite a bit lower.

Mohican North Star Casino in Bowler, WI (smack in the middle of hunt-country) has a huge 20-player barge-table that is set at either $3 (weekdays) or $5 (weekends) with 2x-Odds.  Unfortunately it’s only open from 4 p.m. to 2 a.m.  This table takes a little bit of getting used to; with a backwall that deadens any impacts quite effectively. 

Mohican’s North Star Café is decidedly down-market (way down), and the casino does not have its own hotel; however there are a couple of Comfort Inn-type motels nearby.  Though the Star Club players card at first seems useless with meager food and accommodation offerings; their generous cash-vouchers and match-plays more than make up for that shortcoming.

Oneida Bingo & Casino is across from Austin Straubel Airport in Green Bay, and is the cleanest casino that I encountered on the Michigan/Wisconsin leg of this trip.  They have two very bouncy 12-foot $5 minimum, $200 max-bet, 3x-Odds craps tables that open at 12-noon and operate through to 4 a.m.  However, during the week, expect only one of their tables to be open (that is a mid-week theme you’ll see repeated often in Wisconsin casinos).  The attached Radisson Inn is in much better condition than I expected, and food at both the Standing Stone buffet and Shenandoah Restaurant is excellent.  Food and room comps are exceptionally easy to obtain.

Potawatomi Northern Lights in Carter, Wisconsin has one small, somewhat bouncy, stand-up tub table that opens at 10 a.m. and one large microfiber 16-footer that is often open only on the weekend. Minimum-bets are $3 on weekdays and $5 on the weekend.  Both tables offer 2x-Odds with a $200 maximum flat-bet.  Standard rules about both dice having to hit the backwall is scrupulously enforced, but not in an overbearing or anti-dicesetter sort of way.  I spent three solid days on their tub table. When I switched over to the big 16-footer on the weekend, it took some radical re-acclimation. Food choices are limited but passable.

St. Croix Casino & Hotel (also known as “Turtle Lake Casino” to the locals) is located in Turtle Lake (about 90 minutes north of Minneapolis/St. Paul and the same distance from Eau Claire); and has two 14-footers and one 16-foot, $5-min/$500-max 5x-Odds tables with at least one layout open 24/7/365…although during the slowest times, you’ll often see just half-a-table in operation.  “St. C” is the biggest casino in Wisconsin and draws crowds like flies to honey.  High-quality food and comfortable accommodation are the hallmark of this busy casino.

Hole In the Wall Casino in Danbury is run by the same Turtle Creek band as St. Croix Casino, and only offers craps four days a week (Thursday through Sunday).  They open the table at 6 p.m. on Thursdays, 4 p.m. on Fridays, and 2 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday.  Save for a few savvy players, the table sees very little action as soon as it opens.  That means the first hour or two of play offers plenty of shooting opportunities.  With a $3 minimum/$200 maximum bet, it is easy to work your victory-fueled wagers up to the table-max in pretty short order. 

The Loose Change Café offers a wide range of decent food while their Hole in the Wall Hotel (it’s really a small 46-room motel) is plain but comfortable.  Comps initially lag behind your actual table-play by several hours if not half-a-day.  Once their computer system catches up, freebies are easily forthcoming.

Lac Courte Oreilles (LCO) Casino-Lodge in Hayward offers craps only on Wednesday through Sunday starting at 6 p.m. and running through to 2 a.m. on weekdays and 4 a.m. on weekends.  That’s the downside to playing at LCO.  The upside is the excellent table and the very accommodating staff who appreciate even the meagerest of tokes.  Since I showed up on a Tuesday, I spent the better portion of an entire non-playing day languishing in and around their cedar sauna. Table-rates are set at the Wisconsin-standard of $3-minimum/$200-maximum.

There are nine other casinos in Wisconsin that currently DO NOT offer craps, but a few more MAY offer it in the not-too-distant future.  They include Grindstone Creek Casino in Hayward, Whitetail Crossing Casino in Tomah, Rainbow Casino in Nekoosa, Mole Lake/Regency Casino in Mole Lake, Bad River Lodge Casino in Odanah, Ho Chunk Casino in Baraboo/Wisconsin Dells, Isle Vista Casino in Bayfield, Lake of the Torches Resort Casino in Lac du Flambeau, and Majestic Pines Casino in Black River Falls.

Summary of My 2-Point Molly Don’t Experiment

 Here’s a summary of how I did with this everything-that’s-old-is-new-again experiment:

Wisconsin-leg Duration: 12 days

Total Playing Time:  50.3 hours – This includes actual at-the-table time only.  On crowded tables where I kept my spot “reserved”, I often used the between-shooting-opportunity interludes to enjoy a meal or go for a walk.

Type of Bets: $25 Don’t Pass w/Full Odds, Plus one $25 Don’t Come w/Full odds

Bet-making Notes: If an “instant” Don’t-Come winner (2 or 3) or loser (11 or 7) was thrown, did  not replace the bet during that hand. This summary includes the roll-stats that pertain only  to this experiment, and do not reflect any C-O or D-P income.

Total Hands thrown: 143

Instant Don’t-Come Winners: 21 – This is the number of instant even-money D-C winners that were paid if a craps-2 or craps-3 rolled. They represented 14.68% of my D-C bet “attempts” which is probably attributable to the high preponderance of on-axis 2’s and 3’s with the horn-heavy point-cycle dice-sets that I use. Random-expectancy for the combined craps-2 and craps-3 is 8.33%.

Instant Don’t Come Losers: 13 bets lost to Yo-11 – 51 bets lost to 7-Out DP winners. This is the number of instant D-C losers that were lost when a Yo-11 or DP-winning-7 rolled. The Yo-11 outcomes represented 9.09% of my D-C bet “attempts”.  Random-expectancy for the Yo-11 is 5.55% The 7-Out D-C losers (but a winner for my DP line-bets) represented 35.66% of my D-C bet “attempts”.  Random-expectancy for the 7 is 16.66%.

Instant D-C Outcome Ratio: 64 instant losers vs. 21 instant winners. This represents a 3:1 ratio or of instant D-C losers-to-instant-DC-winners.

Total Instant Win from D-C: 21 wins x even-money $25 D-C payout = $525

This is the total revenue earned from instant D-C winners when a craps-2 or craps-3 rolled.

Total Instant Loss from D-C: 64 losses x $25 D-C wager =  (-$1600)

This is the total money lost to instant D-C losers when a Yo-11 or 7-Out DP-winner rolled

Net-Loss Directly From D-C: (-$1075)

This is the overall net-loss from those instant D-C winners and losers.

Traveled D-C wagers: 58

This is the number of bets that survived the D-C and subsequently went behind a box-number.  They represent just 40.56% of D-C “attempts”, and at first blush looks pretty bleak in terms of the prospects for this experiment to emerge on the positive side of the dice-influencing ledger. 

Traveled D-C Wager Wins: 51

Traveled D-C Wager Losses: 7 

Traveled D-C Revenue:

Winners: $25 flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet pays even-money. $150 Odds-portion of traveled D-C bet paid an average of $96. In Wisconsin, max-permissible Odds vary.

In each WI casino, I pushed the inverse allowable odds as high as the box or pit personnel would  allow. The average traveled D-C w/Odds winner paid $121. 51 traveled  D-C winners paid $6171.

Losses: $25 flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet plus $150 in average inversed lay-Odds  (see above notes) equates to $175 per loss. 7 traveled D-C losers cost (-$1225).

Net-win from traveled D-C w/Odds = $4946

Revenue From D-C: $4946 from traveled D-C w/Odds minus $1075 from instant D-C

losses = $3871 

Total Hands thrown: 143

Average D-C Profit/Hand: $27.07

At first glance this does not look like a very good betting-method. 

• The 3:1 losers-to-winners ratio when the bets are sitting in the Don’t Come box is a very costly interlude and represents a –30% return-on-investment (a $1075 net-loss on $3575 in D-C wagers).
• On the other hand, the net-revenue from the traveled D-C wagers when backed with Odds, earned a 48% return-on-investment ($4946 profit on approximately $10,150 in traveled D-C w/Odds wagers).
• When combined, this equates to an overall net-profit of $3871 from this 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment, and provides a combined R.O.I. of 38% on the full Don’t Come w/Odds investment.
• I played 143 hands which produced an average of just $27 D-C profit per hand.

Complicating the low $27-per-hand revenue-stream was the fact that Wisconsin’s casinos have a modest flat-bet max of $200, however their bet-tolerance comfort-level is much, much lower than that.  In fact, I would vigorously counsel advantage-play Darksiders NOT to exceed the DP or DC bet amounts that I used during this experiment. 

If I had done this 2-Point Don’t-side Molly experiment in a more bet-tolerant jurisdiction (or one where higher Lay-odds were permitted); then I would have definitely raised my base D-C bet up to at least $50, if not $100 (along with the correspondingly higher inverse lay-Odds). 

• On the other hand, the upside to this little experiment was that the $27 average D-C profit per-hand was in addition to my DP w/Odds revenue which I didn’t include in any of the above calculations.
• When those two income-streams are combined the revenue generated by my “Game Within A Game” Come-Out profits, the brightness of the overall profit-picture improves markedly.

Frankly though, the outcome of this two-week experiment was quite enlightening insofar as showing how a high Horn-content point-cycle dice-set when combined with an intentionally low point-cycle Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio can make it quite difficult to make decent money off of Don’t Come wagers. 

However, what this research did show was that there is at least one traditional betting-method that cannot be completely dismissed out of hand when it comes to providing at least a little bit of additional per-hand profit from a frequently overlooked D-C source. 

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. 

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor