For the accomplished Precision-Shooter, the difference between inconsistent wins and consistent profitability is the capacity to recognize and then capitalize on your primary Signature Numbers. That’s what this series is all about, and today we are specifically looking at ways for you to REDUCE your risk while you INCREASE your profit.
Let’s Take it From the Top
There are a few critical steps that most pro’s use to lock-in an early profit, yet still keep their bets in action to take advantage of any continued hits. Here are a few of them:
Regress EARLY
That means that the initial bets of your Top Three or Four Signature Numbers have to be large enough to have one winning-hit pay for the reduced amount of your total regressed bets. For example, let’s say that your Top Four SN’s, in declining order are: 8, 6, 9, and 5.
We want to have Place-bets on our Top Three or Four for at least ONE HIT. We then want to reduce those Place-bets so a profit has been locked-in NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS NEXT.
While we could always call our bets “off”, or bring them down, that defeats the entire purpose of Precision-Shooting. Rather, we want our money to be in action to best take advantage of our good throwing. By locking-in an early profit, we are also reducing the self-imposed stress that some players place on themselves when they continually have large bets on the layout. Using a pay-for-itself regression method lets you relax and continue your good tossing without having to concern yourself with undue risk or exposure.
Relaxed focus allows you to concentrate on continued success, not continued STRESS.
That also means that your initial bet has to be large enough to mostly cover the total amount of the newly regressed Place-bets. For example, if you Place-bet $66 Inside ($15 each on the 5 & 9, and $18 each on the 6 & 8), any outcome of those numbers will spin off a $21 payment. By immediately regressing your bets right after that first hit, to $22 Inside ($5 each on the 5 & 9, and $6 each on the 6 & 8), you are still in action on your most powerful numbers, yet you only have $1 net-dollar at risk.
Staying In Action
By having money on your Power Numbers, you are able to stay in action, while your bets have been mostly paid for, all with just ONE paying roll. In this case, we are less concerned with our actual Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR), than we are in continuing to shoot consistently.
From that point on, subsequent revenue off of those Signature-Numbers can be racked (kept entirely as profit), or a portion of it can be used to pump up the volume (press-up the amount of the wager) on the numbers that are dominating during that particular roll.
Here’s a simple formula for you to remember:
Signature Numbers
+ Regression
+ Conservative Pressing
= Consistent Profit
IF and WHEN to Turn Bets “Off”
For this part of the discussion, we are not talking about player superstitions; we’ll get to that idiosyncrasy very shortly. Right now we are talking about following a betting-plan like John Patrick’s one-hit and “down” or “off” recommendation. While some of his methods ARE quite valid for random-rollers and other unqualified shooters, they were NOT designed specifically with Precision-Shooting in mind.
Some Precision-Shooters turn all of their bets “Off” after a certain number of rolls even on their own hands. If you usually 7-Out on your ninth roll just like clockwork, then turning them off at the end of your eighth roll is a terrific idea. However, if you are using some arbitrary number that isn’t related to your current skill-level to determine when to turn them off, then you may be shortchanging yourself.
When your shooting is going well, permanently turning your bets “Off”, lets the world (and your rightfully earned profit) continue to pass you by. It’s YOUR profit, and your own shooting has EARNED it; why would you want to ignore it and let the casino keep it?
Automatically turning your bets “Off” when you are on a good roll, is hardly ever a good idea. Instead, you can REDUCE or regress your bets, along with a reduction of your PL-Odds. If you know that your average roll lasts for 8 throws, then you can execute that regression/reduction move around about the sixth or seventh roll. In that case, you will still have money in action if your good shooting continues, but you have locked-in a profit as well.
From that point on, you can decide whether your continued good shooting merits increasing the size of the bets you that are still “spinning gold” for you on every hit. Meanwhile, you can be satisfied that you have recognized your normal shooting-benchmark, and you have adjusted your bets accordingly, without eliminating the possibility of increased profit from an on-going hand. As your current hand surpasses the length of your “average” roll, you’ll be able to enjoy the comfort of having a profit locked up, yet still be satisfied that additional rolls may bring additional revenue.
The most important thing is that you don’t let your own negative self-limiting thoughts enter into your mind.
In craps, mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits.
Don’t Let Superstition Limit Your Wins
Many players let their superstitions become self-fulfilling prophecies. If you get it into your head that you “always” 7-Out at a certain time or another, you may in fact be affecting your precision-shot in a negative way that does indeed result in a 7-Out result.
If you say to yourself, “Oh oh, here comes my ninth toss…I never make it past the ninth roll…never…humph, here it goes…ahh ya see that…7-Out…just like always!”
So I’ll say it again:
In craps, mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits.
Trying to Sit on a Two-legged Chair
You can have Precision-Shooting skills coming out of every bodily orifice, and you can have proper betting-methods down cold; but if your bankroll isn’t sufficient to adequately cover the volatility of your wagers, it is like trying to balance yourself in a two-legged chair. You can’t let your feet touch the ground, and you can’t prop it up against a wall…so you have to concentrate on maintaining your balance.
Now as long as you don’t have any other tasks to perform, you may be able to stay balanced in that chair for a while, but as more and more complicated tasks are heaped upon you, and as more and more distractions come your way; the more difficult it is to maintain your equilibrium.
It’s the same way with an inadequate bankroll.
You may be able to maintain its integrity for a while, but as more and more risk is thrown at it, the less likely it is to survive. On the off-chance that you are able to make it survive, it rarely thrives and prospers because you are spending so much time trying to protect it.
By being overly protective, it never gets a chance to really grow and prosper.
Sooner or later an insufficient bankroll will lead to failure.
Sufficient Bankroll Gives Your Skills a Fair Chance
A sufficient bankroll allows you to carry out the regression moves that we just discussed. It is CRITICAL to your success. Let me put into words that Arnold Schwarzenegger might use: “Hear me NOW, or believe me when your bankroll regains consciousness…having a sufficient bankroll is CRITICAL to your success.”
You can’t do any of those regression moves if you don’t have the bets out there in the first place. If they aren’t adequately large enough to permit a proper step-down in the first place; then it makes it very difficult for your bankroll to ever get enough self-fueled breathing room to really grow under its own power.
Most insufficient bankrolls crumble and deteriorate long before they ever have a chance to grow.
Many players try to cut corners and reduce the amount of money that is necessary to comfortably and successfully do what we are talking about. Sometimes you’ll be able to dodge a bullet, but sooner or later, the volatility of the game always catches up to an inadequate bankroll.
EXPERIENCE COMES EASILY, BUT NEVER CHEAPLY. Do not play with an inadequate bankroll.
Missing a Critical Piece of the Precision-Shooting Puzzle
The problem with having dice-setting skills with an insufficient bankroll, or having the best betting-methods without the required discipline, means that you are missing critical pieces to the consistent-profit puzzle.
The most frustrating part, is that you can get a good idea of how the finished picture should look, and in fact, you may be able to figure out exactly what it should look like…
However, if one of the pieces is still missing, you WILL NEVER get to consistent profitability, UNTIL you put it all together into a seamless, cohesive impermeable profit-masterpiece that is yours to keep and use.
As Your Skill Evolves…
…Your betting-methods have to evolve right along with them. What worked perfectly for you three or six months ago may not even pertain to what you are throwing now. For Signature Numbers, you have to let your experience guide you, but not let ancient history determine how you are betting now.
As your Precision-Shooting evolves, you have to constantly monitor whether your current betting-methods are squeezing maximum profit out of your present skills, or if they are strangling and diluting your revenue and diminishing your earnings-consistency.
Getting TO Consistency and STAYING There
Your CURRENT Signature Numbers should be the driving force behind your bets, and that includes giving them PRIORITY over all other bets INCLUDING your PL-Odds money. If your PL-Point is not one of your Signature Numbers, and you have to make a choice between fuller-odds or a Place-bet on your PRIMARY Signature Number, then the choice is ALWAYS to have your strongest number(s) covered.
No, you are not going to see that advice in any craps book YET, but I’m sure you’ll see the advice co-opted by a gaming author sooner or later.
INVEST YOUR MONEY WHERE IT WILL HAVE THE MOST CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE RESULTS.
So I’ll tell you again:
Your CURRENT Signature Numbers should be the DRIVING FORCE behind your bets, and that includes giving them PRIORITY over all other bets INCLUDING your PL-Odds money.
If Your Shooting Starts “Giving”…
…You have to adjust your bets to do the best “TAKING”. When changes occur, you first have to recognize them; then you have to adjust your betting-methods to more closely match your currently-flowing results.
As your skill improves, your betting-methods have to keep pace with them.
If you see one or two numbers continually repeating one after the other after the other; then that is where your troops (your money) should be deployed. In some sessions, a new dominant outcome may signal the emergence of a newer or higher-priority Signature Number.
If the third outcome with the same result doesn’t convince you to bet on it, then the fourth one definitely should. Five or six back-to-back-to-back same-number outcomes are what fledgling Precision-Shooters fantasize about (and what accomplished Precision-Shooters strive for during each hand). You simply have to learn when to pull the trigger, and to have a sufficient bankroll so that you have not run out of bullets when a prime target-of-opportunity shows its head.
You have to continually monitor your progress to determine if the ranking and strength of each Signature Number is stable, or whether one of them is racing for and taking over the lead in its dominance. This is the time to make adjustments to your bets.
If these on-going adjustments look like a continual juggling act where you modify, revise, amend and fine-tune where your money is deployed, you are correct. You have to have the insight and awareness of your constantly changing skills to reflect the places where the preponderant weight of your money should be positioned.
If your shooting starts “Giving”; then you have to adjust your bets to do the “TAKING”.
A Short Review
By focusing on our Signature Numbers, we reduce our risk and increase our profit. In addition:
- Early regression of our bets reduces bankroll depression.
- Relaxed focus allows you to concentrate on continued success, not continued STRESS.
- Signature Numbers + Regression + Conservative Pressing = Consistent Profit
- Don’t let superstition limit your wins.
- Mental-limits are far more restrictive than physical-limits.
- Sufficient bankroll gives your skills a fair chance.
- As your skill evolves, your betting-methods have to evolve along with them.
- Your current Signature Numbers have to be the driving force behind your bets.
- Invest your money where it will have the most consistently profitable results.
- If your shooting starts “Giving”; then you have to adjust your bets to do the “TAKING”.
Until we discuss this further in Part IV,
Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
