Dice Setter Precision Shooter’s Newsletter: September 2003

Volume III : Issue III

Autumn greetings to everyone!  I’ll keep this issue of the Precision Shooter Newsletter short and sweet.  September was extremely busy on Dice Setter and the message board.   Restricting access to the message board has proven to be one of the best decisions I’ve made.  Those who participate, REALLY participate!  The topics have been interesting, on topic, and very insightful. Thanks!  Last month was also extremely profitable at the tables as well, so my decision to spend less time talking about dice influencing and more time DOING it has also proven to be a good decision.  We also had a fantastic online chat last month.  A nice group of players joined Heavy, the Mad Professor, Sitecst40, Dix, Roadrunner and I for several hours of discussion on dice influencing, strategy, and the state of craps.  Especially interesting were discussions on sizing your bets based on the loss tolerance of specific casinos and whether certain dice influencers are actually intentionally baiting dealers and Table Games Supervisors for notoriety purposes.  Fascinating stuff!  It was our first chat, and since it was so successful, it won’t be our last.  Look for an announcement on the message board for future on line discussions!   We’ll try to schedule the next one to be more convenient for east coast shooters.

In other news, dice6n8, who was giving Heavy a hand at last months Tunica seminar, scored the “Craps For Cash” bonus at the Gold Strike Casino by making all six points (4,5,6,8,9,10) in a single hand.   Congrats to him!  And lastly, word from the Yuri Kononenko camp is that he is currently working on a new book.  It’s my understanding that this book is not specifically about dice influencing.  After all since he wrote “the” book on dice control, what more could he say?  As I know more, I’ll let you know.  I hope to get some excerpts in the coming months, and I’ll share them with you here in the newsletter.

Let’s get on with this month’s edition.

Sevens Dominant Precision Shooter Plays
by Stephen “Heavy” Haltom

Quick, without thinking – what is the best bet on the layout during the come out roll?  The Pass Line bet, right?  There are eight ways to win on the seven or eleven versus four ways to lose on the craps numbers.  If any other number shows it is essentially a push for that roll and the number becomes the shooter’s point. 

Now let’s go one roll out and take a second look.  Your Pass Line bet is established and it is time for the shooter to try to make his point.  What is the worst bet on the layout now?  Easy.  Again the answer is the Pass Line bet.  Why?  Because now you are stuck with a contract bet that is going to lose two out of three times. 

Without a doubt, the seven is the most powerful number in the game of craps.  The seven giveth and the seven taketh away.  But does it really have to be that way?  Is there any way to make the seven work for you all the time?   For the savvy precision shooter there just may be.   Let’s look at three ways the shooter can take advantage of the seven by playing Right Way, Wrong Way, or a hybrid strategy that incorporates elements of both.   

Precision dice shooters – or Advantage Shooters as I prefer to call them – don’t actually control the dice.  Instead, they influence them.  By carefully pre-setting the dice to specific arrangements and making a controlled toss these shooters can often alter the short-run probabilities of the game.  The average shooter will toss a seven one time in six. That’s because out of thirty-six possible combinations of the dice there are six that add up to seven:  1-6, 6-1, 2-5, 5-2, 3-4, and 4-3.  But an Advantage Shooter who can keep the dice on axis may, when utilizing specific sevens-dominant pre-set arrangements, expect to average as many as eight sevens in thirty-six rolls.  Expert Advantage Shooters who can keep both dice on axis and spinning at the same speed may perform even better. 

There are 1,152 possible permutations of dice setting but there all of them are variations of six axial pre-sets.  Of those six, three are sevens-dominant axles.  They are the 5-2 / 5-2, the 3-4 / 3-4, and the 6-1 / 6-1.    Here are the three primary axial pre-sets arranged so that the seven is showing all sides:

All Sevens	All Sevens	All Sevens
5-2 / 5-2 on Axis	3-4 / 3-4 on Axis	6-1 / 6-1 on Axis

These sets all have one thing in common.  When rolled on axis each set contains four combinations of numbers that add up to seven.  The seven appears twenty-five percent of the time on these combinations of the dice as opposed to about seventeen percent of the time on the random shooter.  For the Right Way player that can mean more come-out naturals, and that’s a beautiful thing.  But what about the Don’t player?  When used properly dice setting and advantage shooting can work for them as well. 

Let’s take a look at the three sevens-dominant dice pre-sets and see what opportunities they reveal. 

All Sevens – 5-2 / 5-2 Axis Point Distribution:  With this pre-set the five pips and the two pips are showing on the axial or lateral faces of the dice.  In layman’s language it’s “five-two sevens on the side.” 

There are four ways to roll the seven on this axis, but only one way each to roll the six and eight.  For the Right Way player this is not a very attractive set.  Yes, there are four “naturals” on axis, but there are two craps numbers as well.  Over thirty-six rolls using this come out the shooter could only expect two naturals.  Of the numbers that will roll on axis, there is only one way to toss the six or eight – points the Right Way players favor.  

For the Don’t player, though, minimizing the chances of rolling the six or eight is very important.  In fact, this distribution of numbers suggests a powerful way the Don’t player can hedge his Don’t Pass wager while using this pre-set.  Do you see it?  

A simple hedge strategy might be to lay $25 no six or no eight in combination with a $15 Don’t Pass wager.  Since the eleven is not a factor on this axis there is no need to hedge against it.  Conversely, we should not see the ace-deuce craps roll either.  What are the other possible outcomes?  If the shooter tosses the seven on the come out roll he will win $20 on the hedge bet less the $15 losing Don’t Pass bet, a net win of $5.  If the two rolls he wins $15 on the Don’t Pass, and there is no effect on the Lay bet.  The twelve is a push.  Any point number rolled becomes the player’s primary Don’t wager and the Lay bet is removed.   Provided that the shooter can keep the dice on axis, the only significant exposure is a one in thirty-six possibility that the hard six or eight will roll, and that can be handled with a $1 hop bet on the come out. 

Is there another time when this pre-set would work for the precision shooter playing the Don’ts?  Absolutely.  Anytime a precision shooter finds himself with a Don’t bet established on the six or eight he should switch to this pre-set and attempt to seven out.  

Now let’s consider the All Sevens pre-set with the 3-4 / 3-4 on  Axis.

All Sevens – 3-4 / 3-4 Axis Point Distribution.  In layman’s terms the 3-4 seven is “on the sides.”   

Again, there are four ways to roll the seven on this axis.  But with the dice set on the 3-4 / 3-4 axis you pick up an additional way to make the six and eight.  The ace-deuce and the eleven become more of a factor than in the previous pre-set as well.   But the most noticeable change is in the appearance of the five and nine.  There are no fives or nines on this axis, and that makes this pre-set a dream for players who like to Lay against the numbers.  The play would be much the same as the one discussed earlier, only this time the player would lay $31 no five or no nine to hedge his Don’t Pass wager.   The advantage player shooting from the Don’ts should consider switching to this pre-set any time the established point is the five or nine and attempt to seven out. 

Last of all is the All Sevens Pre-Set with the 6-1 / 6-1 on Axis. 

All Sevens – 6-1 / 6-1 Axis Point Distribution.  In layman’s terms, the 6-1 seven is “on the sides.”

As you can see, this pre-set arrangement also has four combinations that add up to seven.  But unlike the previous two All-Sevens sets, there are no craps numbers on this axis.  That, coupled with the fact that there are a total of six combinations of the dice that total six or eight on this axis make it a favorite of Right Way advantage shooters.  

Is there a way the Don’t player can capitalize on the strengths of this pre-set?  About the only way would be to Lay $41 no four or no ten and attempt to toss the seven on the come-out.   However, since the likelihood is that the point established with this pre-set arrangement will be the six or eight the shooter might want to consider a hybrid play that combines Don’t and Do action for a shot at a double win.  By Laying $41 no four and Playing $20 on the Pass Line, then tossing the seven on the Come Out roll the player can lock up a net $39 win. 

The seven is the most powerful number in the game of craps.  Understanding how and when to use it to your advantage – whether playing the Right Way or the Wrong Way – is a key element of becoming a long-term winner.

Upcoming Seminars

There are several seminars coming up in the next few months.  Click the links for more information.

Heavy and Dice Coach’s Right or Wrong Weekend in Las Vegas – Nov. 7 to 9 2003

Dice Feminique! Hosted by the Dice Coach, Michael Vernon & Debbie “Soft Touch” G. Nov. 14-16, 2003

Mad Professor’s Mini-Table Craps Tour with the Vegas Ghost- Part XII

(Read Part I , Part II, Part III or Part IV or Part V or Part VI or Part VII or Part VIII or Part IX or Part X or Part XI)  

Mel and I had two objectives as we headed towards the banks of our Colorado River destination in Laughlin.

Objective #1 was to win a reasonable amount of money from the mini-tub at the Colorado Belle Hotel-Casino.

Objective #2 was to discuss whether a skilled Precision-Shooter could make a decent living by “specializing” in playing almost exclusively at mini-tub tables.

The Idea of a Mini-Tub “Specialist”

He and I had already won a ton of cash by playing at almost a dozen mini-tables in Las Vegas during this tour.  Mel wanted to review the skills and discipline that would be necessary for an average player to succeed at making a mini-tub living.

He reasoned that based on our current success on the mini-tub tour, a reasonably-skilled and disciplined player could derive the lions share of their Precision-Shooting income just from the tiny tables.  He added that it was quite obvious by now that the short distance on these tables made it much easier to keep the dice on-axis and turn up mostly primary-face (as set) results for the effort.

Though I agreed with his logic, the process for consistent profitability is not as linear as he was making it sound.  I followed that up by saying that, although mini-tub Precision-Shooting was somewhat easier than it is on a normal table; it still isn’t an EASY thing to accomplish. 

If It was Easy…

…Captures the essence of Precision-Shooting. “If it was easy…everyone would be doing it”.

That statement was especially apropos to the Mini-Table Specialist question.  To further illustrate my point, I asked Mel why his own shooting hadn’t been significantly better on the small layouts than it is on the normal ones.  His simple answer was that he hadn’t put any effort into practicing or fine-tuning his toss AT ALL, let alone tailoring it to mini-tables. 

As I see it, the first Mini-Table Specialist obstacle that came to mind, was the fact that the small number of available mini-tubs would mean that you would have to show your face at the same old mini-tub places time and time again.   That didn’t appeal to me, simply because most of the casinos where mini-tubs are found, are not known for being loss-tolerant.

When a casino has a LOWER “loss-tolerance” than other casinos, it means that it is easier for them to associate the disappearance of THEIR money with YOUR face.  When you combine that with the fact that they aren’t in the business to lose money in the first, and that their own bankroll usually isn’t as large as the “big guys”, you have a situation that a savvy player would have to diligently monitor to avoid detection. 

While no casino corporation wants to lose money, the bigger ones are obviously more tolerant of the whip-saw wins and losses that individual tables undergo throughout the day.  They know that at the end of the month, they will always emerge as a net-winner.  At the smaller places, they feel a higher need to come out of each new player-encounter with a net-win from nearly EVERY customer. 

As hard as it is for some people to believe, there are a number of casinos out there that are actually losing money.  While management inefficiency has a lot to do with it, specifically targeting the weak ones is definitely NOT in anyone’s best interest.

In case it isn’t obvious, Mel and I had a very spirited discussion during the 90-minute drive from LV, and I knew neither of us were finished with it.  With all of those factors in mind, we wheeled into the ‘Belle’s parking lot.

The Colorado Belle

This place is reminiscent of a late 1800’s paddle-wheeler.   In fact, the rooms in the Mardi Gras low-rise portion of the hotel look like they haven’t been refurbished since the late 1800’s.  The saving grace is that they have balconies that are literally right ON the riverbank.  I don’t know about you, but an early morning coffee or a late-evening night-cap out there as the balmy breezes waft off the Colorado’s swiftly moving current, brings a certain relaxed contentment to your mind.  It’s little things like that which brings the whole  Lifestyles of the Precision-Shooter into proper perspective.

– mini table tour continued here

If you have any comments or ideas for future issues, feel free to email me at ed@dicesetter.com  And as always, I’m looking for contributors with a fresh perspective.

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Good Luck!