The “Ground Zero” of Opportunity

If a massive earthquake shakes Las Vegas, go directly to a keno lounge.  As far as I know, NOTHING in the history of mankind has EVER been HIT in there.

On the other hand, if you want to be at the epicenter of opportunity; Ground-Zero would have to be either Casino Royale on the Las Vegas Strip between Harrah’s and Venetian, and across from Mirage; or Sam’s Town out on Boulder Highway, a few minutes from the Strip.

What makes these two places SO special?

It is called 100-times Odds.

In craps, a player can augment Pass Line, Come, Don’t Pass, and Don’t Come bets after a shooter establishes a Point. This is done by taking or laying Odds.  Using Odds rather than higher Pass or Don’t Pass wagers actually trims the house edge on these bets.

The house theoretically earns 1.4 cents per dollar on the initial “flat” wager. This forms the house edge; it results because overall chances of winning are just under 50% but the payoff is only 1-to-1. The casino has no edge, and earns nothing on the odds because the payoff mirrors the chances.

With $10 on the Pass Line, 10 x 1.4% theoretically earns the casino 14 cents. If a player takes $20 odds, the house still earns only 14 cents even though a total of $30 is now in play. Theoretical earnings are fixed by the flat bet, so the overall house edge on the total amount bet actually drops when the Odds are increased in relation to the flat bet.

Double odds have long been a standard in Las Vegas.

More and more casinos now offer 3x, 4x, 5x odds. The purpose of the higher odds offerings, is to attract players with the lower house advantage, and then hoping to make up for it with increased volume.  Odds of 10x, 20x and 100x can also be occasionally found.  At these levels, house edge is virtually nil.  With $1 flat and $100 odds, at either Sam’s Town or Casino Royale, they earn 1 x 1.4 or 1.4 cents on $101. In a “regular” 2x casino with $35 on the Pass Line and $70 in Odds, the casino earns 35 x 1.4 or 49 cents on $105.

Why do casinos dare offer 100x Odds at craps?

Some people wonder how a place like Casino Royale can manage or afford to do that.  The answer is threefold:

First, few players can afford 100 times their flat bet in odds. If you are accustomed to $5 on the Pass Line and $10 in odds, then you are hardly a candidate for $5 on the line and $500 in odds, regardless of the edge. Even if the table minimum is $1, most bettors are unlikely to plunk down $1 and $100, respectively.

Second, patrons who normally start with $25 or $50 on the line, and take double or triple odds rarely drop to flat bets of $1 or $5 to get a better edge for the same outlay. That in most part is due to ego involvement. The other part of that equation involves Comp levels.  Hour upon hour of play that earns the casino 1.4 cents per bet hardly merits a hot dog in the snack bar; but at earnings of 49 cents or more per bet, the casino can offer the finest gourmet meals and luxurious suites.  Most people have the need for ego-satisfaction that comes with a free dinner, regardless of the true cost.

Third, craps players generally bet on several outcomes during a roll. A few obtain this coverage with Come or Don’t Come bets, where they can trim the edge using odds. Most, however, opt for Place, Buy, or Lay wagers, on which the casino earns from 1.5 to 6.7 cents/dollar. So casinos can write-off line bets as loss leaders, and make their money from the follow-on wagers.  We won’t even discuss the Proposition bets where the house edge can exceed 16%.

In principle, shrewd players exploit opportunities to minimize house edge, so high odds multiples should have strong appeal. However, in practice, house edge isn’t the only criterion.

Good players also consider how many numbers they want to cover during a roll; how much exposure is appropriate for their stakes; and how much they value the flexibility of Place, Buy, and Lay relative to Come and Don’t Come bets. They can then trim house edge within these constraints by using strategies such as shifting money from the flat to the odds portions of Line and Come bets, and switching from Place, Buy, and Lay to Come and Don’t Come wagers.  I’ll show you what I mean by using my own actual approach.

My strategy on a $1 or $2 table at Casino Royale when I encounter another qualified Precision Shooter is:

• Bet the table minimum on the Pass Line.
• Once the Point is established, bet 100x Odds behind the Pass Line.
• Place the 6 & 8 for $90 each.
• Bet the table minimum on Come.
• When the Come bet moves to the number box, bet 100x Odds on that number.
• Bet the table minimum on Come, and continue to do so with “Off and On” action.
• When the Come bet moves to the number box, again bet 100x Odds on any new number.
• If either the 6 or 8 Place bets hit, replace it with the Come bet that has been moved to that box, and put full 100x odds on it.
• Continue this process until the roll 7’s-Out.
• Yes, it’s possible to have a total of $606 in action on a $1.00 table.  With a qualified Precision-Shooter, this approach usually pays off with hefty dividends.

Here’s a payoff comparison between 2x and 100x odds:

What does this mean in real play?

Well, at an average table with just random-rollers, the 100x player would have about $120 per hour more left in his rack than his 2x counterpart.   And that includes Come-Out winners, too!   If you or someone else at the table is a Precision-Shooter, then your opportunities increase dramatically. 

My success record at Sam’s Town and Casino Royale, with my own shooting is that 19-out-of-20 hands are profitable.  My track record with other Precision-Shooters is typically profitable 16-out-of-every-20 opportunities.  With random-rollers, I am averaging profit on 9-out-of-20 shooters.  Needless to say, I generally keep my money in my rack when a random-roller initially has a go at the dice.   If it looks like something is developing after five rolls, then I enter the random game cautiously, and use the odds profits to fuel further bets, all the while retaining some locked-in profit.

Of course, where you play and how you play is up to you.   After all, it is YOUR money.  But if you are looking for MAXIMUM opportunity, then Ground-Zero is at either Casino Royale or Sam’s Town.

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

By:  The Mad Professor